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2012 Draft

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All this talk about Varejao and playoff runs got me thinking about something I saw on Twitter yesterday. Someone I follow was comparing the reg. season and playoff PER's of Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki. He found that, for every year after the 06 postseason, Dirk's playoff PER typically went up from the reg. season, while Wade's tended to dip in the playoffs. Why is this relevant? Well, I remember having a discussion about Varejao's lack of impact in the last two postseasons the Cavs played.

...

This would be a better discussion in another thread, but few things to point out:

1) You would normally expect performance to go down in the playoffs because the level of competition, the level of scouting, and yes the level of effort increases;
2) PER is not the stat you use to evaluate what Andy brings to a team ... Net +/- would be your huckleberry.
3) In some of the recent post seasons, Andy was just playing hurt and far less than 100%. Same is true for a number of our other bigs.

Anyway, I do think a #7 pick in this draft would be good value for Andy, but apparently there are some strings attached.
 
All this talk about Varejao and playoff runs got me thinking about something I saw on Twitter yesterday. Someone I follow was comparing the reg. season and playoff PER's of Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki. He found that, for every year after the 06 postseason, Dirk's playoff PER typically went up from the reg. season, while Wade's tended to dip in the playoffs. Why is this relevant? Well, I remember having a discussion about Varejao's lack of impact in the last two postseasons the Cavs played.

I'm not really a fan of PER. I think it used incorrectly and treated as the be-all, end-all by those in favor of advanced stats. However, there is something to it. And if you look at Andy's PER (as well as other advanced metrics such as TS%, TRB%, WS/48), all his numbers tend to decrease in the postseason. Why is this? You can draw your own conclusions, but I have my own theory (that I can remember being thrown out there two years ago). Andy's biggest attribute is the fact that he never takes a play off. Regular season, postseason, 1st quarter, 4th quarter, he plays every possession like its his last. That's great during the regular season. Most guys don't play every game hard, let alone every possession, and it really helps the team win those close games where the smallest things become an even greater focus.

The problem is that this doesn't happen in the playoffs. When the playoffs arrive, EVERYONE is playing hard. Once everyone is expending the same amount of energy and effort, that's where speed, quickness, athleticism, and skill come into play. Suddenly, Andy's advantage on those more talented than him is gone. As a result, he's less effective.

Now, this has been the case each of the last three postseasons, otherwise known as the prime of Andy's athletic career. He's suffered several injuries since then, and he's gotten older. Best-case scenario, this team is competing in 2-3 years (which, if I'm being honest, I find to be a pipe dream). By that time, Andy is 31/32 and already in 10th or 11th season. That's a lot of miles, and its not even getting into the Olympics this year, so Andy really won't have a summer to rehab any nagging issues. This is already a guy who's seen his effectiveness take a hit when the real season starts, and we're expecting him to play at just as high a level 2-3 years down the line? Sorry, but if you believe that, then you're living in some sort of fantasy world where fatigue and injuries don't exist.

Bottom line: If you have the chance to flip Andy for a top-7 pick in a strong draft, you do it and don't look back. If this really is a possibility (which is another post in itself), then the Cavs MUST take advantage.


(For those that want to compare Andy's reg. season and postseason numbers for themselves, here you go: Anderson Varejao NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com)

I think that's partially true, but you're not taking into account something that's just as important. While it's great to see players diving for every loose ball and trying to take every charge, it often catches up to the body in the form of nagging injuries late in the season. You used wade as well, and I think he's a perfect example: two years ago he was dominating the finals until he tweaked something (I think it was his hip) and he was a non-factor from then on. This year he's really struggling with a knee injury, which is apparently worse than a lot of people are saying. In the 2010 playoffs, I remember Andy was trying to play through a bad back which took away most of his mobility in the boston series. No one's at 100% by the time the playoffs roll around, but I think it's especially hard for those guys who beat themselves up during the regular season.
 
The point is that people are claiming that Andy will be invaluable to the team if and when they get back to the playoffs. Based on past years, that's not the case. Whether he has nagging injuries or not is irrelevant, and really only strengthens the "trade him now" argument. He doesn't know how to conserve himself in the regular season, thereby becoming less effective when the games actually count. We're expecting him to play at this level in the playoffs 2, 3, 4 years down the line? Sorry, its just not going to happen.
 
How about you list his positive qualities as well when assessing his trade value? And 30+? He doesn't turn 30 until September 28.

I could phrase my side of the question in an equally biased manner. What playoff team in the teens wouldn't give up their pick for a 29yr old 6'11" all-defensive team big who can play the 4 and 5 while putting up a near double-double and playing his ass off every night?

so, he'll be over 30 before the next nba season starts. hence 30+. when you find a playoff team picking 17-19 willing to make that trade, let me know. if there was a laundry list of suitors for AV willing to give up what you propose, it would likely have been leaked, or he'd be gone by now.
 
Coincidence?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523tbt">#tbt</a> Anderson Varejão swag <a href="http://t.co/dNA8puuH" title="http://instagr.am/p/MJgejruCIg/">instagr.am/p/MJgejruCIg/</a></p>&mdash; Joe Haden (@joehaden23) <a href="https://twitter.com/joehaden23/status/215899345562767361" data-datetime="2012-06-21T20:09:49+00:00">June 21, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
The point is that people are claiming that Andy will be invaluable to the team if and when they get back to the playoffs. Based on past years, that's not the case. Whether he has nagging injuries or not is irrelevant, and really only strengthens the "trade him now" argument. He doesn't know how to conserve himself in the regular season, thereby becoming less effective when the games actually count. We're expecting him to play at this level in the playoffs 2, 3, 4 years down the line? Sorry, its just not going to happen.

I agree we should trade him, we were seeing him play hurt in the playoffs several years ago and now he's going down with major injuries before the playoffs even start. Still, I think his style of game would be very effective as a role player for playoff basketball... not that we need it in the next 2-3 years.
 
Cavs seemed to put enough stock into workouts last year...

Hard to say, unless someone knows how the Cavs had Tristan ranked before they worked him out.

I still think Kanter going 3rd screwed up our draft. I think we planned to take him for Washington in exchange for their 2 first rounders knowing that either JV or TT would be there at #6.

I wonder in retrospect what we would have done with the #18 pick? Alec Burks was gone, but certainly MarShon Brooks was a possibility.

Anyway, we can guess it was the workouts or the advanced stats or whatever ... but it's funny nobody wants to consider that the Cavs watched Tristan play for Texas, reviewed the tape, talked to the people who knew him, and just liked him a ton?
 
Coincidence?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523tbt">#tbt</a> Anderson Varejão swag <a href="http://t.co/dNA8puuH" title="http://instagr.am/p/MJgejruCIg/">instagr.am/p/MJgejruCIg/</a></p>— Joe Haden (@joehaden23) <a href="https://twitter.com/joehaden23/status/215899345562767361" data-datetime="2012-06-21T20:09:49+00:00">June 21, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Coincidence of what?
 
Plays just like him as well. Basically a shooting guard version of Paul Pierce , but better.

Paul Pierce has scored almost 23,000 points in his career.

So the "only better" SG equivalent would be who? Kobe Bryant?

If there is another Kobe Bryant in this draft, I'll get his name tattooed on my forehead. :fingersx:
 
Andy on his way out. Tbt+Throw back Thursday. I'm just throwing stuff at the wall.
 
All this talk about Varejao and playoff runs got me thinking about something I saw on Twitter yesterday. Someone I follow was comparing the reg. season and playoff PER's of Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki. He found that, for every year after the 06 postseason, Dirk's playoff PER typically went up from the reg. season, while Wade's tended to dip in the playoffs. Why is this relevant? Well, I remember having a discussion about Varejao's lack of impact in the last two postseasons the Cavs played.

I'm not really a fan of PER. I think it used incorrectly and treated as the be-all, end-all by those in favor of advanced stats. However, there is something to it. And if you look at Andy's PER (as well as other advanced metrics such as TS%, TRB%, WS/48), all his numbers tend to decrease in the postseason. Why is this? You can draw your own conclusions, but I have my own theory (that I can remember being thrown out there two years ago). Andy's biggest attribute is the fact that he never takes a play off. Regular season, postseason, 1st quarter, 4th quarter, he plays every possession like its his last. That's great during the regular season. Most guys don't play every game hard, let alone every possession, and it really helps the team win those close games where the smallest things become an even greater focus.

The problem is that this doesn't happen in the playoffs. When the playoffs arrive, EVERYONE is playing hard. Once everyone is expending the same amount of energy and effort, that's where speed, quickness, athleticism, and skill come into play. Suddenly, Andy's advantage on those more talented than him is gone. As a result, he's less effective.

Now, this has been the case each of the last three postseasons, otherwise known as the prime of Andy's athletic career. He's suffered several injuries since then, and he's gotten older. Best-case scenario, this team is competing in 2-3 years (which, if I'm being honest, I find to be a pipe dream). By that time, Andy is 31/32 and already in 10th or 11th season. That's a lot of miles, and its not even getting into the Olympics this year, so Andy really won't have a summer to rehab any nagging issues. This is already a guy who's seen his effectiveness take a hit when the real season starts, and we're expecting him to play at just as high a level 2-3 years down the line? Sorry, but if you believe that, then you're living in some sort of fantasy world where fatigue and injuries don't exist.

Bottom line: If you have the chance to flip Andy for a top-7 pick in a strong draft, you do it and don't look back. If this really is a possibility (which is another post in itself), then the Cavs MUST take advantage.


(For those that want to compare Andy's reg. season and postseason numbers for themselves, here you go: Anderson Varejao NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com)

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Season </th><th>G </th><th>MP </th><th>PER </th><th>TS% </th><th>eFG% </th><th>ORB% </th><th>DRB% </th><th>TRB% </th><th>AST% </th><th>STL% </th><th>BLK% </th><th>TOV% </th><th>USG% </th><th>ORtg </th><th>DRtg </th><th>WS/48</th></tr> <tr><td>2008-09 </td><td>81</td><td>2306</td><td>14.6</td><td>0.57</td><td>0.54</td><td>8.9</td><td>20.6</td><td>15</td><td>5.4</td><td>1.8</td><td>2.3</td><td>11.5</td><td>14.2</td><td>116</td><td>100</td><td>0.17</td></tr> <tr><td>2008-09 </td><td>14</td><td>420</td><td>13</td><td>0.53</td><td>0.5</td><td>13</td><td>14.6</td><td>13.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.4</td><td>3.3</td><td>14.1</td><td>12.3</td><td>111</td><td>100</td><td>0.14</td></tr></table>

now your just fishing. look at the Offensive rebound percentage. look at the win share per 48. then watch the games. Your "AV declines in the playoffs" is just completely bogus.


Im not even going to go into all the situational and gameplan blunders the Cavs made in browns last two years.
 
<style type="text/css">
table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}
.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}
</style>

<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Season </th><th>G </th><th>MP </th><th>PER </th><th>TS% </th><th>eFG% </th><th>ORB% </th><th>DRB% </th><th>TRB% </th><th>AST% </th><th>STL% </th><th>BLK% </th><th>TOV% </th><th>USG% </th><th>ORtg </th><th>DRtg </th><th>WS/48</th></tr> <tr><td>2008-09 </td><td>81</td><td>2306</td><td>14.6</td><td>0.57</td><td>0.54</td><td>8.9</td><td>20.6</td><td>15</td><td>5.4</td><td>1.8</td><td>2.3</td><td>11.5</td><td>14.2</td><td>116</td><td>100</td><td>0.17</td></tr> <tr><td>2008-09 </td><td>14</td><td>420</td><td>13</td><td>0.53</td><td>0.5</td><td>13</td><td>14.6</td><td>13.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.4</td><td>3.3</td><td>14.1</td><td>12.3</td><td>111</td><td>100</td><td>0.14</td></tr></table>

now your just fishing. look at the Offensive rebound percentage. look at the win share per 48. then watch the games. Your "AV declines in the playoffs" is just completely bogus.


Im not even going to go into all the situational and gameplan blunders the Cavs made in browns last two years.

You're picking ONE YEAR, torn. ONE YEAR (where his effectiveness dropped slightly, the other years are more significant). Look at 07-08, look at 09-10. He is simply not as effective in the playoffs. And, if this team is capable of contending in the future, he will be well past his prime.

Not only is it one year, but its one year that happened THREE YEARS AGO. Andy's value will never be higher. I don't know about you, but I don't want to be sitting here 4-5 years from now arguing in a thread titled "What if the Cavs had traded Andy sooner?"

If you can get a top-7 pick for Varejao, you do it, no questions asked.
 
Let's say the Cavs make the trade with the Warriors for the #7 pick. Which two players complement each other with the 4/7 selections? MKG/Drummond, Barnes/Ross, etc
 

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