2019 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

Cam's enormous three point rate (still higher than Trae Young last year) is the main thing keeping his offensive projection high. He's been dropping though, from +10 after 3 games, to +8 last week, to +4 now, so I imagine his days in the top 5 of my rankings are numbered.

Like Cam, Norvell is being buoyed by a high three point rate so far, and his tidy 2:1 assist:TO ratio helps him too. Not crazy to think he has point guard potential, and big PGs who can shoot are pretty rare.

As @priceFTW has pointed out, Zion doesn't stand out as a shooter or a facilitator, and great offensive players are usually one of those two things. Where he does stand out is as an interior scorer, but my draft rater struggles with elite interior scorers because it's hard to differentiate from a guy who's just an efficient lob target (low offensive ceiling) and a guy like Zion who's actually driving and scoring efficiently on his own (high offensive ceiling). That's reflected in the enormous uncertainty in Zion's rating (+/- 6.8).

Makes sense.....yeah, it's amazing how the tiers have just caved in to each other after 15-20% of the regular season.

Seems like one of the drafts that 3-9 could be like 2009, where 3 of the best players can just go anywhere in that range.

Will be interesting to see who rises and who falls as conference play starts.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Cam's enormous three point rate (still higher than Trae Young last year) is the main thing keeping his offensive projection high. He's been dropping though, from +10 after 3 games, to +8 last week, to +4 now, so I imagine his days in the top 5 of my rankings are numbered.

Like Cam, Norvell is being buoyed by a high three point rate so far, and his tidy 2:1 assist:TO ratio helps him too. Not crazy to think he has point guard potential, and big PGs who can shoot are pretty rare.

As @priceFTW has pointed out, Zion doesn't stand out as a shooter or a facilitator, and great offensive players are usually one of those two things. Where he does stand out is as an interior scorer, but my draft rater struggles with elite interior scorers because it's hard to differentiate from a guy who's just an efficient lob target (low offensive ceiling) and a guy like Zion who's actually driving and scoring efficiently on his own (high offensive ceiling). That's reflected in the enormous uncertainty in Zion's rating (+/- 6.8).

I really love these in-depth explanations on certain guys. Especially where the model has weaknesses that are difficult to fix - like distinguishing Zion-types to just play finishers. I don't know how you'd be able to incorporate any way to distinguish them... Maybe by using play-type possession counts? I'm sure Zion has a ton more ISO possessions than your average play finisher for example... idk.

I always see people sharing other peoples' draft model results without having any idea/explanation on the process of obtaining the results.

 

[Nathan S]

I really love these in-depth explanations on certain guys. Especially where the model has weaknesses that are difficult to fix - like distinguishing Zion-types to just play finishers. I don't know how you'd be able to incorporate any way to distinguish them... Maybe by using play-type possession counts? I'm sure Zion has a ton more ISO possessions than your average play finisher for example... idk.

I always see people sharing other peoples' draft model results without having any idea/explanation on the process of obtaining the results.

I'm thinking of remaking the model with play-by-play stats...the big difference maker there would be the breakdown of 2-pointers into assisted vs. unassisted, midrange vs. paint, and putbacks, which would all probably have very different values. Would be a significant undertaking though, and I'm not sure I'll get to it.

Also, seriously, fuck black-box models with missing/incomplete explanation and no estimates of uncertainty. The worst. That's what motivated me to make my own in the first place

 

[Nathan S]

What do you all think about Nickeil Alexander-Walker? Didn't realize he's actually Shai's cousin. Seems like a good player and a good fit for the Cavs.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

What do you all think about Nickeil Alexander-Walker? Didn't realize he's actually Shai's cousin. Seems like a good player and a good fit for the Cavs.

I like him a lot. He's a perfect fit next to Sexton. He's close to a top 10 player for me right now I'd think.

 

[CBBI]

What do we think of Ja Morant?

38 tonight at Alabama without hitting a three, but also 10 turnovers.

View: https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1067259151141781504


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401082951

 

[Sumac13]

I'd keep an eye on Rui Hachimura as Gonzaga's season progresses. He's in his 3rd season at GU. He's developed a lot since his freshman year. Could be a nice mid to late first round pickup.

When I worked in the tutoring center at GU, he'd come in time to time. Nice guy. Funny as fuck. Happy to see him in the starting line up now.

 

[KB]

What do we think of Ja Morant?

38 tonight at Alabama without hitting a three, but also 10 turnovers.

View: https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1067259151141781504


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401082951

I thought the two handed put back he had was better

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

What do we think of Ja Morant?

38 tonight at Alabama without hitting a three, but also 10 turnovers.

View: https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1067259151141781504


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401082951

I just watched that full game on replay. I expect him to be the top PG in the draft, but he's not a guy I'd move on from Sexton for. I don't buy the shot yet... needs a ton of lower body input on it I've noticed, if that makes sense. He doesn't shoot an easy ball. He's better off the dribble than off the catch too.

He's legit though. He doesn't even need the jumper to be effective I don't think. Crazy athlete with a good handle. Biggest downside to me is his defense... he's super skinny, gets killed on screens. Really has to conserve energy on that end as well. 95% of the game they just hide him off the ball. Probably a top ten pick though in my opinion.

The turnover # to me is worse than it actually was. 2 or 3 of them came in the last 2 minutes while they played the fouling game and tried to force things as quickly as possible. Really only had one pass that would make the coaching staff face palm lol IIRC lol.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

ESPN put out a new mock. Couple of guys I've mentioned got moved up. Nickeil Walker-Alexander up from 26th to 17th. Kevin Porter up from 21st to 9th. Dort up to 19th. Grimes out of the top 10 now.

Their top five
1. Zion Williamson
2. RJ Barrett
3. Nassir Little
4. Cam Reddish
5. Bol Bol

 

[Nathan S]

Bol with 32 points last night...he's now on pace to become the highest scoring freshman center in NCAA history, surpassing Ayton's mark last year.

 

[Adam]

Hes definitely interesting as a prospect. In some ways he is like dirk where his height is basically a way to get him open jumpers

 

[Alec]

^
I'm 30 seconds in and I'm liking what I'm seeing. Let's go through the video.

1. He drove left. He's 7'3 and he felt confident enough driving with his off hand.
2. Skinny as a rail but fought through some contact and showed enough touch to finish.
3. Shows great touch and depth perception in his post ups. Doesn't look super skilled in post yet but he flashed some moves. A drop step or two. But he's 7'3 and long, he can live on that.
4. A pull up deep 3. Hits it. ZERO hesitation.
5. Spot up 3. Good form and follow through.
6. Turn around jumper from the mid-range.

Okay I've seen enough. I'd be VERY happy if we took Bol Bol.

He has the length to be a rim protector, the length to be a plus rebounder. And he's a 7'3 floor stretcher.

I know his dad was done at 31 but there's a great chance Bol will be gone once we lose player control anyway. Plus he looks springy and slender. I don't worry about health for the young man.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Bol was impressive offensively at times last night.

Despite that, Oregon got killed on the interior defensively and on the boards all game... and they lost to a Texas Southern team that was 1-4 coming into the game.

 

[Nathan S]

I like how well he elevates on his jumpshot, which makes his release point ridiculously high. A lot of stretch 5's just go up on their toes and baaaaarely leave the ground when they shoot.

On the downside, like Ayton last year, he doesn't seem to have nearly the defensive impact you expect for a player with his physical tools. Will be interesting to see what his on/off numbers look like.