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Post All-Star Predictions

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Number of Post All-Star wins


  • Total voters
    79
Hollinger's predictions appear to have a bias. With very few exeptions, the teams currently with winning records play worse for the rest of the season, and the losing teams play better. Some dramatically better, e.g. NO goes from .214 to .318. The teams we would be competing against for that 5th spot ALL play better in the projections. This seems highly unlikely.

However if one projects based on current percentages, if we win 10 more games our winning percentage would be .348. Assuming the other teams continue to win at their current rate that would put us 8th. If we won 6 games we would squeak into 5th behind Toronto. To have some insurance against the likelyhood of a team moving up in the lottery winning 5 games would move us into 4th.

BTW, I voted 11-14 and I assumed there will be some player movement.

The hornets are a combination of their recent improved record (.400 over the last 10) and because they've played the 2nd hardest schedule in the league thus far. We're projected at 27 wins, which is 14 more. 30 wins is the projected 8 seed (17 more) while 21 wins (8 more) is tied for 3rd worst record in the league. Also the range of 24 to 28 wins is only projected to make a 1 spot difference in draft position (7 vs 8) and may not make any difference at all if the suns trade Nash.

The trade deadline will determine a lot. If we do nothing more than move Sessions for a pick and don't have any players break out from where we stand now, 24-28 seems a reasonable range. If we either pick up talent and/or have a player break out, we may get that 8th seed. Andy returning in the projected timeframe vs getting traded also will impact the win total.

I don't think the compressed schedule matters too much in terms of endurance unless injuries pile up because we're a young team. The older teams will feel it more, even if they've already played more games, thus have fewer left. It's already impacting the celtics, and they've only played 1 more game than us. Where it hurts us is the lack of practice time to work on things that are happening in the games.
 
I believe Hollinger adapted his projection to look more like a Power Ranking by emphasizing recent results in his equation.

If you want to to look at some projections that don't appear to include that as a factor, take a look at teamrankings.com:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/

These projections would also put us in 8th with 10 wins. Guess we'll just have to wait a few months and see how reality pans out. :)
 
I pray they trade Sessions so we an at least have two picks in the draft. After having two 1st rounders last season, I have become greedy.
 
http://http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

According to the projected records on Hollinger's playoff odds, 10 or 11 wins would put us in the hunt for a top 5 pick

If you're confident about your analysis how about a bet?

I'll bet a US$25 contribution to RCF that 10 more wins this season would not get us the 5th or worse record. That is to say that at the end of the season there will be 5 or more teams other than the Cavs with a winning percentage of less than .348. In the event that there are 4 teams below .348 and one with a record of 23-43 (.34848...), I'll concede the bet.

Bet payable with 1 week of the end of the season.

Hopefully that's clear enough.

Will you take the bet? :pray:
 
Last edited:
If you're confident about your analysis how about a bet?

I'll bet a US$25 contribution to RCF that 10 more wins this season would not get us the 5th or worse record. That is to say that at the end of the season there will be 5 or more teams other than the Cavs with a winning percentage of less than .348. In the event that there are 4 teams below .348 and one with a record of 23-43 (.34848...), I'll concede the bet.

Bet payable with 1 week of the end of the season.

Hopefully that's clear enough.

Will you take the bet? :pray:
Not my analysis and even in my interpretation of the analysis I just said it would put us "in the hunt"

So I guess my answer is no thanks
 
People are pointing out our second-of-back-to-back (or more) games, but not keeping in mind our opponents' second-of-back-to-back (or more) games:

Tue, Feb 28 vs Boston
Wed, Feb 29 @ NY Knicks
Fri, Mar 2 vs Chicago
Sat, Mar 3 @ Washington
Mon, Mar 5 vs Utah
Wed, Mar 7 @ Denver
Fri, Mar 9 @ Oklahoma City
Sun, Mar 11 vs Houston
Tue, Mar 13 vs Toronto
Wed, Mar 14 @ Milwaukee
Sun, Mar 18 vs Atlanta
Mon, Mar 19 @ New Jersey
Wed, Mar 21 @ Atlanta
Fri, Mar 23 @ Orlando
Sun, Mar 25 vs Phoenix
Tue, Mar 27 @ Philadelphia
Wed, Mar 28 vs Detroit
Fri, Mar 30 vs Milwaukee
Sat, Mar 31 @ NY Knicks
Tue, Apr 3 vs San Antonio
Wed, Apr 4 @ Milwaukee
Fri, Apr 6 @ Toronto
Sun, Apr 8 @ New Jersey
Tue, Apr 10 vs Charlotte
Wed, Apr 11 vs Indiana
Fri, Apr 13 @ Indiana
Sat, Apr 14 @ Washington
Sun, Apr 15 vs Orlando
Tue, Apr 17 @ Detroit
Wed, Apr 18 vs Philadelphia
Fri, Apr 20 vs NY Knicks
Sun, Apr 22 @ San Antonio
Mon, Apr 23 @ Memphis
Wed, Apr 25 vs Washington
Thu, Apr 26 @ Chicago

In other words, many of the back-to-back games "cancel out."

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your perspective,) there are only 2 games where we have the day off before and they don't; and there is something seriously wrong if we can't beat Charlotte at home regardless.
 
The Hornets are 4-6 in their last 10 and played the second toughest schedule in the first half. It would stand to reason that they will play better moving forward.

Yes, but their schedule won't get THAT much easier going forward. Playing in the Western Conference means that "regression to the mean" won't bring their SOS down to .500.

Their L10 SOS is also much lower than their aggregate SOS (.506 < .541.)
 
In other words, many of the back-to-back games "cancel out."

Houston on a back to back in Cleveland gives us a chance to win that game.

In New York when they're on a back to back? May not help.

We should beat Charlotte at the Q regardless.

We should beat the Wizards regardless.

It's unlikely we beat Philly even though they're on a back to back.

And our only advantage .vs. Chicago would be if they're resting their players for the playoffs.

In summary, it may help us in a game or two, but I don't think it cancels when there are 6 games we would normally have a great chance of winning but may lose if we come out tired and flat.
 
Cavs are 3-5 thus far since the all-star break

hard to see them going 8-19 or 11-16 given the remaining opponents

16 Road Games
11 Home Games

Tue, Feb 28 vs Boston - Loss
Wed, Feb 29 @ NY Knicks - Loss
Fri, Mar 2 vs Chicago - Loss
Sat, Mar 3 @ Washington - Loss
Mon, Mar 5 vs Utah - Loss
Wed, Mar 7 @ Denver - Win
Fri, Mar 9 @ Oklahoma City - Win
Sun, Mar 11 vs Houston - Win
===================================
Tue, Mar 13 vs Toronto
Wed, Mar 14 @ Milwaukee
Sun, Mar 18 vs Atlanta
Mon, Mar 19 @ New Jersey
Wed, Mar 21 @ Atlanta
Fri, Mar 23 @ Orlando
Sun, Mar 25 vs Phoenix
Tue, Mar 27 @ Philadelphia
Wed, Mar 28 vs Detroit
Fri, Mar 30 vs Milwaukee
Sat, Mar 31 @ NY Knicks
Tue, Apr 3 vs San Antonio
Wed, Apr 4 @ Milwaukee
Fri, Apr 6 @ Toronto
Sun, Apr 8 @ New Jersey
Tue, Apr 10 vs Charlotte
Wed, Apr 11 vs Indiana
Fri, Apr 13 @ Indiana
Sat, Apr 14 @ Washington
Sun, Apr 15 vs Orlando
Tue, Apr 17 @ Detroit
Wed, Apr 18 vs Philadelphia
Fri, Apr 20 vs NY Knicks
Sun, Apr 22 @ San Antonio
Mon, Apr 23 @ Memphis
Wed, Apr 25 vs Washington
Thu, Apr 26 @ Chicago
 
we have a lot of easy teams left... playoffs are looking like a possibility at this point.. :dunno:
 
27-39

barring major trades/injuries
 
we have a lot of easy teams left... playoffs are looking like a possibility at this point.. :dunno:

Weird, I was just gonna say the opposite lol

Guess its just how you look at it:dunno:

I see 8-19 the rest of the way, 24-42 overall
 
Weird, I was just gonna say the opposite lol

Guess its just how you look at it:dunno:

I see 8-19 the rest of the way, 24-42 overall
Mon 12 @ Chicago 8:00pm MSG
Wed 14 vs Portland 7:30pm MSG
Fri 16 vs Indiana 7:30pm MSG
Sat 17 @ Indiana 7:00pm MSG
Tue 20 vs Toronto 7:30pm MSG
Wed 21 @ Philadelphia 7:00pm MSG
Fri 23 @ Toronto 7:00pm MSG
Sat 24 vs Detroit 7:30pm MSG
Mon 26 vs Milwaukee 7:30pm MSG
Wed 28 vs Orlando 7:00pm MSG
Fri 30 @ Atlanta 7:30pm MSG
Sat 31 vs Cleveland 7:30pm MSG
Tue 03 @ Indiana 7:00pm MSG
Thu 05 @ Orlando 7:00pm MSG
Sun 08 vs Chicago 1:00pm
Tue 10 @ Chicago 9:30pm MSG
Wed 11 @ Milwaukee 8:00pm MSG
Fri 13 vs Washington 7:30pm MSG
Sun 15 vs Miami 1:00pm
Tue 17 vs Boston 8:00pm
Wed 18 @ New Jersey 7:30pm MSG
Fri 20 @ Cleveland 7:30pm MSG
Sun 22 @ Atlanta 1:00pm MSG
Wed 25 vs LA Clippers 8:00pm MSG
Thu 26 @ Charlotte 8:00pm MSG
Thats new yorks for reference.
 

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