Hafner or Thome?

[TheRealKTRAIN]

Can't néed the help evaluating the players or u want Shelly Duncan back

 

[AZ_]

Who is this guy?

Shelley Duncan signed with Tampa Bay.

 

[TheRealKTRAIN]

Was a joke to get Shelly Duncan back dudes a bumm

 

[cdt]

So basically it's giant douche or turd sandwich.

 

[shoes22]

A reasonable case for bringing back Hafner.

http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2...designated-hitter-yes-that-designated-hitter/

From what I can tell, there seem to be two fairly entrenched camps that have sprung up regarding the Indians’ approach to the designated hitter spot this season.

The first group seems to be arguing that the team might be better off without a full-time DH. The thinking here goes that a designated designated hitter makes the team less adaptable; it would hamstring Terry Francona’s ability mix and match lineups by taking one spot off the table. It would also take up a valuable roster spot that could more aptly be filled by a player with some versatility. Travis Hafner’s onerous contract and awful performance are cited heavily in this camp, who would basically prefer to see Mike Aviles in some capacity almost every day—filling in around the diamond at various positions while allowing the regulars to slot in at DH or occasionally take the day off entirely.

The second group wants a DH. They see an everyday spot in the lineup that will currently be filled either by Mike Aviles (.663 OPS in 2012) or Lou Marson (.635) and realize that that sort of production just isn’t good enough—not when you could add in a DH and not lose much in the way of team defense by allowing Marson and Aviles to be role-players rather than everyday ones. This group also likes to point out that either Travis Hafner or Jim Thome will likely come very cheap, and as long as they are managed properly (i.e. not everyday players, but used in three to four games per week against RHP), there’s a chance they could stay healthy enough to post an OPS north of .850 or so.

And I guess that while I usually try to bridge the divide among warring Tribe factions and act as conciliator, I have to say I find myself falling pretty firmly in that second camp, and that the player I keep coming back to to fill the role is Travis Hafner. There are several reasons for this.

First, I really don’t think people realize what it would mean not to add another bat. While versatility sounds nice, it’s really only helpful if the player who’s being asked to be versatile is actually good. Mike Aviles and Lou Marson just aren’t, no matter how much we may want them to be.

Mike Aviles:
YEAR AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ ISO BABiP wOBA
2008 0.325 0.354 0.480 0.834 121 0.155 0.357 0.360
2009 0.183 0.208 0.250 0.458 22 0.067 0.223 0.203
2010 0.304 0.335 0.413 0.748 104 0.109 0.327 0.330
2011 0.255 0.289 0.409 0.698 89 0.154 0.276 0.303
2012 0.250 0.282 0.381 0.663 76 0.131 0.269 0.288

Lou Marson:
YEAR AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ ISO BABiP wOBA
2008 0.500 0.500 1.250 1.750 337 0.750 1.000 0.730
2009 0.246 0.347 0.361 0.708 90 0.115 0.366 0.320
2010 0.195 0.274 0.286 0.560 58 0.091 0.234 0.258
2011 0.230 0.300 0.296 0.596 70 0.066 0.313 0.271
2012 0.226 0.348 0.287 0.635 84 0.061 0.289 0.296

Second, Travis Hafner is probably a lot better hitter than you realize. Outside of his execrable 2008 season, he’s never had a wOBA below .340 and never slugged less than .440. Can you guess how many times Lou Marson and Mike Aviles have done that combined? That would be one time: Mike Aviles’ 2008 campaign where his BABiP was an anomalous .357. So even on Hafner’s worst day, he’s a superior hitter to both Aviles and Marson.

Travis Hafner:
YEAR AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ ISO BABiP wOBA
2008 0.197 0.305 0.323 0.628 69 0.126 0.241 0.277
2009 0.272 0.355 0.470 0.825 120 0.198 0.297 0.356
2010 0.278 0.374 0.449 0.823 130 0.171 0.332 0.359
2011 0.280 0.361 0.449 0.810 128 0.169 0.332 0.354
2012 0.228 0.346 0.438 0.784 121 0.210 0.233 0.342

Speaking of anomalies, did you know that Hafner’s batting average on balls in play last season was only .233, suggesting some really crummy luck for a player who’d posted BABiP’s of around .300 or better over the prior three seasons? For this reason alone, I think it’s more likely than not that his 2013 will be better than his 2012 was—and his 2012 was probably much better than anything Mike Aviles is capable of.

But even more than all the numbers and evidence that I can throw at you, I keep coming back to the same issue. How could adding Hafner on a dirt-cheap contract a bad thing? Let’s pretend he pulls a Sizemore and destroys his shoulder while cashing his first Spring Training check, preventing even one at bat next season. Then the team will be in the exact position that some fans are already pulling for: Mike Aviles and Lou Marson will be playing major roles. It’s not like the team is deciding how to spend that million or so bucks; basically, they’re either gonna do it or they’re not. I don’t see what we gain from not adding him.

And why Hafner and not Thome? I understand the optics would probably play better if we gave the job to the hero from the nineties, but I guess if you’re asking me which one of these guys is more likely to be able to handle 350 plate appearances, I’m going to go with the 35 year old over the 42 year old every day and twice on Sundays. I still think Hafner was miscast as an everyday player during his previous contract—probably because of his previous contract. The front office was paying the guy $13 million, and in an effort to recoup the investment, they insisted he play more often than he should have been. I think on a more appropriately sized contract and with a new manager, the message might be sent rather quickly that Hafner should be used judiciously in order to preserve his health. He could sit three or so games a week, and arguably be a better version than he has been in recent years.

Thome, on the other hand appears much closer to the actual end of his career. He is 42. Last season his ISO (slugging minus batting average—a measure of raw power) dropped below .200 for the first time in his career. He hurt his back while playing first base (good ole Cholly, up to no good), and managed only 186 plate appearances on the season because of it. I guess I just don’t believe in 42 year old baseball players unless they’re named Barry Bonds, and even then, the bounds of credulity are strained.

I say this knowing full-well that I also advocated signing Grady Sizemore last year. In other words, I may have lost the right to be taken seriously by a sizable portion of the fanbase.

But that situation was different to me: the team was choosing how to spend the $5 million they had on hand—they could’ve spent it on Grady OR on a real left fielder OR on a starting pitcher. This time, they’re either going to spend the million on a DH or they won’t add anything; they’re either going to add potential value, or they’re going to do nothing.

Perhaps it speaks to how soured the town has gotten on past-his-prime sluggers from yesteryear, but more and more I seem to be hearing people from that first camp—with more scar tissue built around their baseball psyches than Pronk’s shoulder—advocating that we just can’t go down that road again. That sometimes, a clean break is best, no matter the cost.

 

[macbdog]

The problem with looking at Hafner's raw numbers is that there is no consistency. He starts out hot, the shoulder starts to bug him and he slows down, then he lands on the DL. If he starts out hot, like he has each of the last 3 years, he won't sit. He'll get fatigued and then hurt. He is hurt way too often to count on him to maximize those 300-350 plate appearances. Come July, it will still be a DH rotation with Hafner on the DL. Look at all the aggregate stats you want, they don't reflect actual Hafner production, game in and game out.

 

[Pyro]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Reports that <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Yankees">#Yankees</a> may be nearing a deal with former <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Indians">#Indians</a> DH Travis Hafner. Would assume he'd sign a 1-year deal.</p>&mdash; Tony Lastoria (@TonyIBI) <a href="https://twitter.com/TonyIBI/status/296676833225740289">January 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[TheRealKTRAIN]

Okay with Hafner likely off the board. I can see Jim Thome coming or even Russell Branyan coming to the Tribe as a DH. I know Branyan did not play last year but he still has a lot of pop in that bat.... But a lot of strike outs

 

[Stark]

Okay with Hafner likely off the board. I can see Jim Thome coming or even Russell Branyan coming to the Tribe as a DH. I know Branyan did not play last year but he still has a lot of pop in that bat.... But a lot of strike outs

Stop it Chris.

We've already got at least 300+ strikeouts coming from Stubbs and Reynolds this year. You want to add another 150+ to that with an almost 40 year old Russell Branyan?

 

[TheRealKTRAIN]

Got to get someone that has power... My opinion I think the rotation of players at DH will just be a huge cluster f@ck

 

[Stark]

If we bring Branyan in, he'll hit a buck fifty with maybe a dozen home runs if we are lucky. Thome probably wouldn't be a whole lot better.

If we can't get Hafner back, I say we give guys like Gomes a chance to establish themselves. Swisher isn't super-young either. He could use a day off once in a while at the DH spot.

 

[TheRealKTRAIN]

Yeah I get what your saying maybe try Matt Laporta but they will be an epic fail like usually with him

 

[BMAN]

Why are we discussing Russell Branyan? Say no to him.

 

[Pyro]

Russell Branyan would be nice.

If this was 2006.

 

[Stark]

Russell Branyan would be nice.

If this was 2006.

I just went back and looked at his career numbers, and he is just horrible. I thought he had a few more good years than what he did.

His best season was arguably in 2009 with Seattle when he batted .251 with 31 home runs and 149 strikeouts. Other than that, he eclipsed the 20-HR plateau only three other times (2001, 2002, and 2010).

He didn't play, at least in the Majors last year. In 2011 with the Angels and Diamondbacks, he hit a combined .197 with 5 HR.

So yeah, no. We don't want Branyan anywhere near this team.