Running Out of Time
The Tigers finally started playing like the Tigers again this weekend, sweeping the Indians and more or less killing Cleveland’s slim chances of making the playoffs. Still, the Tribe’s ability to stay on the fringes of the race for this long underscored a strength that bodes well for 2015: The Indians have a lot of young, talented starting pitchers, potentially enough to challenge for the AL Central crown next year.
We already know about Corey Kluber. The 28-year-old right-hander posted promising peripheral numbers last season, and has
put it all together this year, emerging as arguably one of the three best pitchers in the American League behind Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale. The Indians control his rights for four more years, but will presumably approach him with a long-term contract offer, even if only to lessen the sting of some potentially large arbitration offers in the coming seasons.
Then there’s Danny Salazar. Amid some solid
breakout picks this spring (Anthony Rendon, Drew Smyly, Derek Norris, Giancarlo Stanton), I also tossed out a couple of stinkers, and Salazar was the biggest whiff. The 24-year-old right-hander entered this season looking primed for big things following 10 great starts last year while wielding an electric arsenal of pitches including a fastball that often touched the high 90s. But instead of producing a breakout, Salazar laid an egg to start this season, posting a 5.53 ERA through his first eight starts and earning a demotion to Triple-A. He’s been much better since returning, flashing a 3.30 ERA. For Salazar, the adjustment mostly came down to command: He walked 17 batters in his first 40.2 innings and caught too much of the plate when he wasn’t walking batters, surrendering eight home runs and far too many hits in those first eight starts. Since returning, he’s chopped his walk, hit, and home run rates significantly, while still firing those electric pitches that make him a strikeout-per-inning pitcher. Might as well make room for him in next year’s breakout predictions.
Next there’s Trevor Bauer, whom Kevin Towers and the Diamondbacks got so sick of that they
traded him for light-hitting shortstop Didi Gregorius. After a year of development, Bauer has lived up to his
vast potential and rewarded the Indians’ faith in him, fanning 135 batters in 142.2 innings and getting better as the year has progressed, with a 3.35 ERA over his last seven starts. The Indians control his rights through 2019, and the trade could become more lopsided in Cleveland’s favor with each passing year.
Those three were supposed to eventually succeed. The bigger surprise has been the recent performances of two pitchers long considered little more than back-of-the-rotation stopgaps. Lefty T.J. House, a 16th-round draft pick in 2008, completed his unlikely journey to the big leagues by making his MLB debut onMay 17, at the age of 24. After some rough early results, he’s been very good over his last seven starts, holding opponents to zero or one run in five of those seven outings, with a 2.14 ERA, 41 strikeouts, seven walks, and two homers allowed in 42 total innings. Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco was once a highly regarded prospect, ranked no. 41 by
Baseball Americaand no. 37 by Baseball Prospectus in 2007. Then the Phillies flipped him to Cleveland in 2009 as part of the Cliff Lee trade, Carrasco’s numbers sputtered in the minors and majors with the Tribe, and Tommy John surgery in September 2011 seemed to close the door on his upside. He’s
proved the doubters wrong in 2014, spinning a high-90s fastball and high-80s slider into gold: 110 innings pitched, 109 strikeouts, and just 90 hits, 24 walks, and seven home runs allowed, with a 2.86 ERA.
Add it all up and you have a starting rotation that has ranked
fourth in the majors in ERA and
first in Fielding Independent Pitching since the All-Star break. Pull off a couple of value-based acquisitions and promote shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor as part of a teamwide effort to upgrade a miserable defense and the Indians could be downright scary in 2015.
