Looking at a bunch of players' early career stats, it's striking how many NBA players don't begin to hit their true potential until year 3. Durant, Melo, Danny Green, Anthony Davis, Serge Ibaka.
Dion is still immature but there's been flashes of what he could be. His value would be highest next year. By that time the Cavs will know what Love decided to do.
If the Cavs wanted, they'd also have the option to pull off a Spurs/Pacers draft day trade.
I admire your optimism but this a bit nutty.
1. Durant, Melo, Davis, and Ibaka all started their careers playing at a higher level than Dion. (Green is his own bizarre story that doesn't fit the Dion story, either, but in different ways, let's put him aside for a moment.)
2. They all continued to improve. Each was better in their second year than their first. By their third year in the league, they were
far better than their first year.
2a. Clear and consistent improvement is different than "flashes." Dion has a good game here, or there. Or a good shot/drive/assist/defensive series, a bunch of one-offs that mostly exist in isolation.
3. With Durant, Melo, Davis, and Ibaka, you could see both their potential and then, most importantly, them
converting that potential into daily NBA performance as early as their rookie years, then more so in their second year, and then even more so by their third. They
quickly moved beyond the "flashes" stage.
4. Dion has done no such thing. He started horribly, truly one of the worst SG in the league his rookie year. Next year, he marginally improved, but not in any significant way. Then his third year, he collapsed back to his rookie levels --or maybe
worse. At best, he still shows occasional "flashes."
This in no way, shape, or form conforms to the early career arcs of the players that you've named.
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Is there a chance that Dion is a late bloomer? Or needs a wake-up call and then will become awesome?
Sure, there's
always a chance.
(Keep in mind, even a second round pick like Danny Green --and rare NBA story -- broke through in his
third NBA season.)
But Dion hasn't shown it yet. His first three years certainly bear no resemblance to Durant, Melo, Ibaka, or Davis...or hell, even Danny Green.
This is precisely the problem: most players who amount to much have progressed beyond the "flashes" stage by Season Three.
I'm sure somewhere out there is a counter-example (none of yours are) but once you find that example, ask yourself: this rare example is what percentage of the total pool?
If you want to argue that Dion still has an increasingly distant long-shot of breaking through, that's fine.
Who could disagree? I'm no fortune teller. It
could happen.
I just know that comparing his early career to Durant, Melo, Ibaka, Green, or Davis is silly, giving us no real insight into Dion's situation or future potential.