Should the US (and NATO) Arm Ukraine?

[Sumac13]

Saakashvili. Lol. That is a big fuck you to Putin. He hates the guy.

Yup. I love the move.

Speaking of a Fuck You, last year the US named John Tefft the US Ambassador to Russia. He was the US Ambassador to Ukraine when Maiden Square happened with Yanukovych being deposed. Putin was none too pleased. He blames the US and Tefft for helping orchestrate events. A funny bit ran on channel 5 news in Moscow about Tefft and the US's involvement. Part of the clip claimed that the US had sent over a 100 agents provocateurs to stir up unrest. The clip showed the swearing in the ceremony of my Peace Corps cohort at the US Ukrainian Embassy as proof. It was funny to see us used as propaganda. There were only 45 of us anyway that day.

 

[Sebastian]

Yup. I love the move.

Speaking of a Fuck You, last year the US named John Tefft the US Ambassador to Russia. He was the US Ambassador to Ukraine when Maiden Square happened with Yanukovych being deposed. Putin was none too pleased. He blames the US and Tefft for helping orchestrate events. A funny bit ran on channel 5 news in Moscow about Tefft and the US's involvement. Part of the clip claimed that the US had sent over a 100 agents provocateurs to stir up unrest. The clip showed the swearing in the ceremony of my Peace Corps cohort at the US Ukrainian Embassy as proof. It was funny to see us used as propaganda. There were only 45 of us anyway that day.

I knew it! It was you who caused this mess!

Moscow never lies!

 

[Sumac13]

I think the time has come to ramp up military support. The recently agreed to truce is being blatantly ignored, and the 'rebels' are moving in to grab another port city. The Presidency of Poroshenko is becoming unstable.

I know new sanctions are being discussed, but (as awful as this sounds) I am not sure the Russian people will budge on their support of Putin until body bags start returning home in a greater number.

 

[Sebastian]

I think the time has come to ramp up military support. The recently agreed to truce is being blatantly ignored, and the 'rebels' are moving in to grab another port city. The Presidency of Poroshenko is becoming unstable.

I know new sanctions are being discussed, but (as awful as this sounds) I am not sure the Russian people will budge on their support of Putin until body bags start returning home in a greater number.

Putin cares as much for cease-fires as Hitler did treaties.

It's time to bleed the bear. But, I don't have faith Obama will do nothing more than dither, talk and prevaricate while the world crumbles.

 

[Sebastian]

I think the time has come to ramp up military support. The recently agreed to truce is being blatantly ignored, and the 'rebels' are moving in to grab another port city. The Presidency of Poroshenko is becoming unstable.

I know new sanctions are being discussed, but (as awful as this sounds) I am not sure the Russian people will budge on their support of Putin until body bags start returning home in a greater number.

No need for the polonium now; Putin is straight-up gunning down dissidents.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/28/w...sian-opposition-leader-is-shot-dead.html?_r=0

 

[CleveRocks]

No need for the polonium now; Putin is straight-up gunning down dissidents.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/28/w...sian-opposition-leader-is-shot-dead.html?_r=0

Yeah, but I wonder if it is not the beginning if the end.. He hasnt had to resort to straight gangsterism during his high popularity.

 

[Sumac13]

No need for the polonium now; Putin is straight-up gunning down dissidents.

No kidding about not bothering with polonium. Why bother‽

End of last year saw the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny's brother, Oleg, on farcical trumped-up charges. Now the gunning down of Boris Nemstov. Not surprisingly, he sensed this was coming. In an interview earlier that day, he likened Putin's rule to the Nazi Third Reich.

I wonder if Nemstov's claim of proof of Russian troops in Ukraine will come to be published.

--
Interesting read: Putin's Orthodox Jihad

 

[Sumac13]

Pressure to arm Kiev could increase despite risks: top U.S. diplomat
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-idUSKBN0M20SY20150306


"...Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken told German radio (DLF) the United States was already working on supplying Kiev with non-lethal equipment, including $130 million worth of protective vests, night-vision goggles and other equipment.

"But if the aggression continues, I think there will be more and more pressure to give them other means to protect themselves," he said in the interview with DLF.

With both the government in Kiev and the rebels in eastern Ukraine accusing each other of violating a fragile ceasefire agreed last month, U.S. President Barack Obama and European leaders are weighing their next steps to try to halt a conflict that has killed about 6,000 people since last April.

U.S. and European officials are concerned that sending arms to Kiev would risk escalating the fighting and suck them into a proxy war with Russia.

But some U.S. lawmakers are urging Obama to counter what they see as increased aggression by Russia by providing weapons to Kiev.

Blinken said he did not believe there could be a military solution and the emphasis must be on diplomatic efforts, which continued on Friday when European Union foreign ministers met in Latvia and Berlin hosted separate talks among top foreign ministry officials from Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.

"And you know, it's certainly true that, were any of us to provide weapons to Ukraine, Russia could match that and then double that and triple that and quadruple that," he told DLF.

"But it's also important to have in mind that the Ukrainians should be able to defend themselves and we provided significant security assistance, defensive, non-lethal security assistance to Ukraine to do just that," he said…"

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At what point do you veer away from diplomacy? It seems to be a game of time, allowing Ukraine enough time to build up its own military with limited support from its allies, but with a risk of Russian expanding its aggression. How long will the populace of Russian stand behind him, especially if the Kremlin is forced to finally admits to its involvement? With winter almost past, the heavy need for Russian natural gas will decline until next winter rolls around. Perhaps it will embolden Europe to take a harsher stance.

 

[Sumac13]

Russian Forces in Ukraine:

The Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) recently published a 10-page briefing paper about Russian forces in Ukraine. It goes into detail. Some of you that have served in the military might find it particularly interesting due to the level of detail. Very interesting.

• Download the briefing [PDF]

More information to consider in making an informed decision about what should be the level of US involvement.

 

[gourimoko]

Russian Forces in Ukraine:

The Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) recently published a 10-page briefing paper about Russian forces in Ukraine. It goes into detail. Some of you that have served in the military might find it particularly interesting due to the level of detail. Very interesting.

• Download the briefing [PDF]

More information to consider in making an informed decision about what should be the level of US involvement.

The question becomes does having verified Russian boots on the ground make it unwise to arm the Ukrainians only to kill Russians with American supplied weapons.

Seems like we're rapidly falling back into the Cold War.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Russian Forces in Ukraine:

The Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) recently published a 10-page briefing paper about Russian forces in Ukraine. It goes into detail. Some of you that have served in the military might find it particularly interesting due to the level of detail. Very interesting.

• Download the briefing [PDF]

More information to consider in making an informed decision about what should be the level of US involvement.

I wasn't aware they still had what amount to NKVD troops that will engage other Russian units that retreat without orders.

The whole thing suggests to me that this is not easy for Russia to sustain. To me, that argues in favor of arming the Ukrainians.

 

[Sebastian]

I wasn't aware they still had what amount to NKVD troops that will engage other Russian units that retreat without orders.

The whole thing suggests to me that this is not easy for Russia to sustain. To me, that argues in favor of arming the Ukrainians.

“Indeed, it is obvious that there are insufficient resources – military and financial – under the Kremlin’s command to sustain military operations at the current level for over a year: the military capabilities required to carry out the operation are already reaching their limits....”

This is what is so frustrating about dealing with Russia; they are weak and are basically gambling that Europe and Obama won't doing anything meaningful to stop them. The second anyone steps up is the time we will see Putin pullback. Sending arms to the Ukrainians will be a signal to the Kremlin that they will not be allowed to behave in this fashion. Of course, every Western leader is a nutless pussy so it may not happen.

I just finished reading To Lose a Battle: France 1940 by Alistair Horne and the parallels between Putin and Hitler prior to 1939 are very striking insofar as both are far weaker militarily than the Western allies and both are faced with leaders who simply lack the conviction, courage and cojanes to even bluff their way into threatening the credible use of force needed to confront such thugs. Like in 1939, laboring under the delusion that men like Putin can be bargained with is about as useful as ignoring a diagnosis of cancer because it is upsetting to think about.

Things are such that I honestly am not certain that a Russian attack on the Baltics would lead to the invocation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter. NATO is as useful as its strongest member and at present, for the first time in its history, the US is led by a President who has no interest in winning the wars his nation is fighting to say nothing of coming to the aid of his ostensive allies. Germany is beholden to Russian hydrocarbons as are the French. The West is useless.

No wonder the Lithuanians are shitting themselves. What nation in their right mind would put their faith and protection in the United States?

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/featu...=andlaWNrZ2VuYW50QHJlYWxjbGVhcndvcmxkLmNvbQS2

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

“Indeed, it is obvious that there are insufficient resources – military and financial – under the Kremlin’s command to sustain military operations at the current level for over a year: the military capabilities required to carry out the operation are already reaching their limits....”

This is what is so frustrating about dealing with Russia; they are weak and are basically gambling that Europe and Obama won't doing anything meaningful to stop them. The second anyone steps up is the time we will see Putin pullback. Sending arms to the Ukrainians will be a signal to the Kremlin that they will not be allowed to behave in this fashion. Of course, every Western leader is a nutless pussy so it may not happen.

We should remember that the Soviet Union -- which was a stronger, even more repressive state than Russia is -- was destabilized politically because of the body bags coming back from Afghanistan. There already are stories from within Russia about families worrying over soldiers fighting there, and if the NKVD (or whatever they're calling them now) punishment battalions are having to shoot Russian soldiers, things must be getting pretty bad.

Putin needs a relatively bloodless war in Ukraine, or he likely cannot sustain it. We shouldn't be letting him get away with that.

 

[gourimoko]

We should remember that the Soviet Union -- which was a stronger, even more repressive state than Russia is -- was destabilized politically because of the body bags coming back from Afghanistan.

A lot of factors went into destabilizing the Soviet Union.

Putin needs a relatively bloodless war in Ukraine, or he likely cannot sustain it. We shouldn't be letting him get away with that.

The bolded begs the question.... since when was Ukrainian security our responsibility? Historically, Ukraine has been within Russia's sphere of influence.

For fuck's sake they share a 1,500 mile border with one another.

Sure we can help the Ukrainians, but arming them is a bridge too far I think.

We need to keep the big picture in mind, and re-engaging the Russians in this type of escalation is a direct provocation on our part without any reasonably equivalent benefit.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, it happens to be a buffer state between Russia and NATO. That functions as a useful geographical space between the two powers that can work to reduce the likelihood of a potential direct conflict.

Again, I support helping the Ukrainians, but considering the long history between Russia and Ukraine, arming them with American weapons is too much at this point.

 

[Sumac13]

I just finished reading To Lose a Battle: France 1940 by Alistair Horne and the parallels between Putin and Hitler prior to 1939 are very striking insofar as both are far weaker militarily than the Western allies and both are faced with leaders who simply lack the conviction, courage and cojanes to even bluff their way into threatening the credible use of force needed to confront such thugs. Like in 1939, laboring under the delusion that men like Putin can be bargained with is about as useful as ignoring a diagnosis of cancer because it is upsetting to think about.

Interesting point. Excuse my piss poor understanding of WWII history, but I have a question. Was Germany hit with sanctions back then? If so, how and to what extent? I am not asking this rhetorically. Also, I do think dealing with a nuclear Russia is different than a non-nuclear Hitler Germany. Perhaps this difference doesn't even matter.

Nina Khrushcheva (grand-daughter to Nikita Khrushchev) wrote an opinion piece for Reuters regarding the mentality of the Russian populace, how they view their country in the world and their support for 'strong' leaders (wanting a strong ruler, as well as order and certainty). It is little wonder that Putin remains popular.

I recommend reading Turgenev's "Fathers and Sons" for some insight into the Russian mentality. It seems it still holds true today as it did back in the 1800s. Great book. Some translations suck hard, however, robbing the book of its soul.

Came across an interesting cartoon:

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Hitler walking over the spineless leaders of democracy by British cartoonist David Low