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Playoff Positioning

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I can't believe you guys actually think GS can make the finals. They have a tough road, where they will play 3 teams that are as good or better than the Hawks, we only have to beat Atlanta, and maybe Chicago.

Much more worried about the Spurs than the Warriors.
 
I agree that I don't want to see the Spurs in the Finals either, but is there a reason a good number of people in this thread don't think much of Golden State? Not being sarcastic, honestly asking for some opinions.
 
Barring a major upset tonight from the Knicks on the road, it looks like the Cavs will have a two game lead for both the division and the second seed heading into tomorrow's game against Philly.
 
Marcus said:
Barring a major upset tonight from the Knicks on the road, it looks like the Cavs will have a two game lead for both the division and the second seed heading into tomorrow's game against Philly.
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If the Bulls win tonight and we're two games up, we're still sitting good with only 8 games left to play for both teams. It'd help to beat them and get the head-to-head tiebreaker but at this point we also hold division and conference tiebreakers as well. So, most likely we're really 3 up with 8 to play as the best they could do is tie us in head-to-head and might be able to get division and/or conference but we currently lead there as well.

Even if you assume it's only 2 game lead, if we went 5-3 they'd have to go 7-1 (8-1 counting tonight) and take over the division tiebreaker or tie us in the division and takeover the conference tiebreaker. 2 or 3 games doesn't sound like it's a lot but it is with only 8 to play.

Here's remaining schedule:

vs. teams in or fighting for the playoffs (not counting Detroit, Charlotte/Phoenix are cutoffs)-
Cleveland (6) - vs. Miami (7), vs. Chicago (3), at Milwaukee (6), vs. Boston (8), at Boston (8) Washington (5)
Chicago (5) - at Milwaukee(6), at Cleveland(2), at Miami (7), at Brooklyn (9), vs Atlanta (1)

vs teams out of the playoffs
Cleveland (2) - vs. Philly, vs. Detroit
Chicago (4) - vs. New York, vs. Detroit, at Orlando, vs Philly

Ranking remaining games in order of difficulty(based on Sagarin rating/home court formula, ranking between two team schedules in parenthesis)) -

Cleveland(own rating 94.23, would be favored in any games lower than this number):
at Milwaukee - 92.24(3t)
at Boston - 90.74 (5)
Chicago - 89.93 (7)
Washington - 88.19 (9)
Boston - 86.34 (10)
Miami - 85.90 (12)
Detroit - 85.60 (13t)
Philly - 79.37 (15t)

Chicago(own rating 92.13, would be favored in any games lower than this number):
at Cleveland - 96.43 (1)
Atlanta - 93.76 (2)
at Milwaukee - 92.24 (3t)
at Miami - 90.30 (6)
at Brooklyn - 89.35 (8)
at Orlando - 86.25 (11)
Detroit - 85.60 (13t)
Philly - 79.37 (15t)
New York - 78.58 (17)

So, Chicago has the 2 toughest games remaining and is tied for the third. Although, the Atlanta game could be substantially easier since it's the last game of the season. They're tied with us for the 3rd toughest game and have total of 5 of the top 8 and 6 of the top 11. If you assume tonight's game as a win, we have comparable schedules but with there's having more road games and tougher games at the top.

Hollinger's playoff odds put us at 97.3% chance of winning the division and that's probably about right. Could it happen? Sure. It would take a complete disaster on Cleveland's part and Chicago essentially running the table the rest of the year in a schedule that contains 5 road games against East playoff contenders.

Bottom line, if they don't beat us in Cleveland they don't have a shot. Even if they do, the deck is stacked severely against them catching us.
 
Scar4343 said:
If the Bulls win tonight and we're two games up, we're still sitting good with only 8 games left to play for both teams. It'd help to beat them and get the head-to-head tiebreaker but at this point we also hold division and conference tiebreakers as well. So, most likely we're really 3 up with 8 to play as the best they could do is tie us in head-to-head and might be able to get division and/or conference but we currently lead there as well.

Even if you assume it's only 2 game lead, if we went 5-3 they'd have to go 7-1 (8-1 counting tonight) and take over the division tiebreaker or tie us in the division and takeover the conference tiebreaker. 2 or 3 games doesn't sound like it's a lot but it is with only 8 to play.

Here's remaining schedule:

vs. teams in or fighting for the playoffs (not counting Detroit, Charlotte/Phoenix are cutoffs)-
Cleveland (6) - vs. Miami (7), vs. Chicago (3), at Milwaukee (6), vs. Boston (8), at Boston (8) Washington (5)
Chicago (5) - at Milwaukee(6), at Cleveland(2), at Miami (7), at Brooklyn (9), vs Atlanta (1)

vs teams out of the playoffs
Cleveland (2) - vs. Philly, vs. Detroit
Chicago (4) - vs. New York, vs. Detroit, at Orlando, vs Philly

Ranking remaining games in order of difficulty(based on Sagarin rating/home court formula, ranking between two team schedules in parenthesis)) -

Cleveland(own rating 94.23, would be favored in any games lower than this number):
at Milwaukee - 92.24(3t)
at Boston - 90.74 (5)
Chicago - 89.93 (7)
Washington - 88.19 (9)
Boston - 86.34 (10)
Miami - 85.90 (12)
Detroit - 85.60 (13t)
Philly - 79.37 (15t)

Chicago(own rating 92.13, would be favored in any games lower than this number):
at Cleveland - 96.43 (1)
Atlanta - 93.76 (2)
at Milwaukee - 92.24 (3t)
at Miami - 90.30 (6)
at Brooklyn - 89.35 (8)
at Orlando - 86.25 (11)
Detroit - 85.60 (13t)
Philly - 79.37 (15t)
New York - 78.58 (17)

So, Chicago has the 2 toughest games remaining and is tied for the third. Although, the Atlanta game could be substantially easier since it's the last game of the season. They're tied with us for the 3rd toughest game and have total of 5 of the top 8 and 6 of the top 11. If you assume tonight's game as a win, we have comparable schedules but with there's having more road games and tougher games at the top.

Hollinger's playoff odds put us at 97.3% chance of winning the division and that's probably about right. Could it happen? Sure. It would take a complete disaster on Cleveland's part and Chicago essentially running the table the rest of the year in a schedule that contains 5 road games against East playoff contenders.

Bottom line, if they don't beat us in Cleveland they don't have a shot. Even if they do, the deck is stacked severely against them catching us.
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And to add a prediction on to this.... In my post I made a few weeks back I had us finishing at 55-27. We'd have to win out now for that to be possible.

Looking at this schedule, I see us dropping one of the two road games and winning out at home to finish at 54-28. Sagarin's formula would have us favored in all of these games.

I see Chicago losing 3 games(including 1 to us) and finishing at 50-32. 4 games back and really 5 with the tiebreaker. They could finish at 49 depending on the outcome of the Atlanta game as that could be backups vs. backups and be completely unpredictable. Sagarin's rating would have Chicago not being favored in 3 games.

Bonus prediction:

I looked at Toronto's remaining schedule for a 3/4 seed comparison prediction (their rating is 92.18).

Houston - 91.89
at Boston - 90.74
at Miami - 90.30
at Charlotte - 89.72
at Brooklyn - 89.35
Boston - 86.34
at Orlando - 86.25
Charlotte - 85.32
at Minny - 85.14

It's tough to nail down how many they will lose but I would 3, maybe 2. Sagarin would have them favored in all of these games but there's 3 back-to-backs left all with a potential playoff team on the tail end.

So, I think Chicago/Toronto will be fighting for the 3 seed far more than either will threaten the 2 seed. I expect Toronto to finish 4th at 49-33 right behind Chicago but with Chicago owning the tiebreaker I don't see them overcoming Chicago either way. If I get time, I might try to do this for the East 6-10 picture.
 
Mdog1 said:
I can't believe you guys actually think GS can make the finals. They have a tough road, where they will play 3 teams that are as good or better than the Hawks, we only have to beat Atlanta, and maybe Chicago.

Much more worried about the Spurs than the Warriors.
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they are the best defensive AND offensive team in the league, they are basically on a historic pace in a pretty tough conference and they'll have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs (where they are 34-2), why shouldn't we think they can make the Finals? i'm also not buying the "much tougher road" argument, for all the talk how great the West has been this year it'll likely come down to 2 teams: San Antonio and Golden State. a while ago i thought Memphis would be in the mix too but it seems like they peaked at the wrong time (i hope to be wrong about that because they could actually beat the Warriors in a series when hitting on all cylinders imo).

their competition in the 1st round is better (OKC without Durant isn't a big threat though), in the 2nd round they'll probably face LA or Portland. i would take Atlanta over all 3 of these teams (yes i really believe they are this good) and Chicago (our 2nd round opponent) isn't that much worse than Portland/LA either i think. in the ECF we'll likely play against a well rested Atlanta team (their 1st+2nd round opponents: Boston and Toronto...) that i personally would rank as the 2nd/3rd (i can't decide between them and San Antonio) best team in the West (if they played there).
 
Cavs have a gimme game vs Philly tomorrow, 3 days off to prepare for Miami, then another 2 days off before Chicago, all at home.

If the Cavs win all 3, then the magic number is down to 2, and that is assuming Chicago doesn't cough one up. Still a real good chance to lock up the #2 seed by the April 10th game vs Boston, which would allow the Cavs a full week to rest whomever they want before the playoffs.
 
Mdog1 said:
I can't believe you guys actually think GS can make the finals. They have a tough road, where they will play 3 teams that are as good or better than the Hawks, we only have to beat Atlanta, and maybe Chicago.

Much more worried about the Spurs than the Warriors.
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You could say that about any team in the west ("they will play 3 good teams") but SOMEONE has to win it, and the Warriors at least know they will be playing every series with home court advantage where they are 34-2 so far. Besides that, the west doesn't look quite as strong as it did a few months ago. Portland and OKC are struggling with key injuries and Dallas is barely over .500 in 2015. Memphis and Houston also have surprisingly low point differentials considering their records, which could indicate they're not quite as good as they seem. They are your dark horse teams. GS, LAC, SA do seem to be the most legit in the west.

Golden State is on pace for 67 wins and their +10.9 point differential is historical. Only 7 teams have ever finished +10 or better, and 6 of the 7 won the championship. Additionally, of teams that finished with at least 65 wins, 13/16 won the championship (yes, we are one of the 3 that didn't). And what about teams that finished with BOTH 65+ wins and were at least +10? Those teams are a perfect 6/6. They are doing something very rare this season, and it's something that usually indicates a champion.

So Golden State is definitely being underrated by some people. So are the Clippers, for that matter. Though I think the Clippers would be a favorable matchup for us if it got to that point.
 
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I want the Spurs, 2015 Tony Parker is not 2007 Tony Parker. Timmy will pull some youth out his ass like every Finals and Kawhi isn't LeBron. But to be honest they have to get past the Rockets first - If Houston makes it past the Spurs in the 1st Round, They are going straight to the WCF with Golden State.

I want no part in the Splash Brothers what-so-ever, We suck against 3s - Bad....It'll be worse than Orlando '09
 
Playing Miami with an injured Wade would be a huge break. Honestly could see the series going in 6 contested games if Wade is semi healthy. We have not played well done there twice (granted the first game was pre trades)

Having to go through both the Bulls and Hawks will be a tall task. Def be battles tested if we get to the finals. Would love to see memphis but I doubt they can get there.
I am thinking it will be either Spurs or Warriors.

One thing that many have not thought about but should. I think it is in our best interest to finish with a better record then SA. If it goes 7, I would much much rather player that game in Cleveland. Seeing how even the teams are when they played head to head a 7 game series seems pretty realistic. I hope the Cavs go for a better record then the Spurs and dont just look at the 2 seed in the east..
 
This Nikola Mirotic guy is pretty solid though...
 
CLEistheCITY said:
The confidence from some of you all is baffling. Already planning a cavs finals trip? Apparently you don't know the history of cleveland sports. Very foolish.
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Not only am I planning a Cav's finals trip, but I'm also campaigning for which street the Championship Parade will be.
 
Memphis falls behind Houston after going 13-12 in their last 25 games. The Grizzlies obviously aren't right, and still have games against OKC, GS, and LAC. They could very easily move from second all the way down to fifth.

As an interesting note, right now in the league only the following six teams have won more games than they've lost against teams with records .500 and better: Golden State, Atlanta, Memphis, Portland, Cleveland, Chicago.
 
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