Love/Wiggins Trade Revisited

[Jack Brickman]

It seemed at first that Griffin was good as Grant was talking about fit.
But Grant never seemed to know how to fit pieces together.
SG/PF/C were two areas he was weak IMO to get the right types of players.
Griffin had a plan and executed it and it shows.

His plan was to cross his fingers and hope to god that LeBron signed with Cleveland and he executed it wonderfully.

Seriously, though, it's a lot easier to execute a plan when the best player in the league signs with your team. That made the Love trade possible and it also made Smith, Shumpert, and Mozgov easy fits.

 

[Just Checkin]

Grant set the table for getting LeBron and Griffin just rode it with a contingency plan.

Sometimes I joke about how drafting Bennett was Grant initiating a stealth tank for one last lottery pull since Wiggins was so hyped.

We saw some semblance of what Griff wanted in a team with the Hawes deal and even during the Mike Brown tenure it seemed to be that Kyrie with athletic wings was the ideal as opposed to Dion at first. Mozgov is just, man, he's just a lot better than most people imagined. I knew he'd be a good fit but it's such a perfect one you'd think it's the glove OJ left at home.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I thought +\- was shown as a meaningless stat when kyrie scored 55 vs spurs Smith had a higher +\- than kyrie.

I don't think anyone will argue it is a perfect stat but -38?!

We're not talking about 1 or 2 points here. That is a crazy negative score.

Look at some of Wiggins' metrics:

His ORPM on the season is 0.38. That's #115 in the NBA.
His DRPM on the season is -1.75. That's #375 in the NBA. Yikes.
His RPM on the season is -1.37. That's #246 in the NBA.
His WAR on the season is 1.57. That's #159 in the NBA.

All I'm pointing out is highlight dunks don't mean a whole lot at this juncture. Is he an exciting young player? Of course but people vastly overrate him today. He's very good for a rookie but people frame it as if he's very good when compared to other proven veterans, which he really is not. His ORPM is slightly below guys like Courtney Lee, Kendall Marshall and (gulp) Delly. I'm not stating those guys are or will be better but AW's efficiency stats are generally awful for someone treated like a future star.

I mean, just look at the much maligned Kevin Love

His ORPM on the season is 1.61. That's #53 in the NBA.
His DRPM on the season is 1.67. That's #66 in the NBA.
His RPM on the season is 3.28. That's #42 in the NBA.
His WAR on the season is 8.21. That's #27 in the NBA.

If his DRPM continues to inch up, he'll be a top 60 player in all those markers, which is INCREDIBLE for a third option on a winning team. Especially since those markers aren't restricted by minutes played. Even in a year where he got off to a really slow start, his war is still really strong at 8.21. That's the 7th best out of all PF's and ahead of guys like Ibaka and Griffin. His Real plus minus stats align with Jimmy Butler, who is a 1B option on a top Eastern Conference team.

Maybe most impressive is his DRPM improvement. Of players that play at least 30 minutes a game, he ranks 8th among all PF's in that defensive metric. For all the people ragging on his defense, he's been more than adequate there and has improved from his time in Minnesota.

Now, can you imagine if he continues to shoot like he has post All-Star? He's shooting 45% from the floor and 40% from 3 (even while he's shot 1 more attempt per game).

 

[All4One1ForAll]

Wiggins will be a great player years down the line. Probably an All Star in 2 years. But we're trying to win now while Lebron is still in his prime and Kevin Love's impact on the game right now is much higher than Wiggins. Kevin Love provides us with a legitimate threat down low who gives up 17/10 while spacing the floor and playing solid defense. Plus, he's a perfect fit on this team. I've mentioned this before, but Wiggins would be lucky to put up 12 points a game sandwiched on the perimeter between Kyrie and Lebron, 2 other players who are very ball dominant. He would essentially play like Shumpert or Smith here because his role would be much, much smaller, and I don't get how this continues to slip people's minds.

It's like some people don't get why Kevin's numbers went down from 26 points per game to under 17 this year. He went from a first option to a third option. You don't think the same would happen to Wiggins? In fact, the role transformation would be even more drastic for Andrew because he's another perimeter player in addition to our other perimeter stars. And despite being a third option, Love's numbers right now still blow Wiggins' out of the water.

Love all day every day crew. Happy we made the trade.

 

[Redzone]

I don't think anyone will argue it is a perfect stat but -38?!

We're not talking about 1 or 2 points here. That is a crazy negative score.

Look at some of Wiggins' metrics:

His ORPM on the season is 0.38. That's #115 in the NBA.
His DRPM on the season is -1.75. That's #375 in the NBA. Yikes.
His RPM on the season is -1.37. That's #246 in the NBA.
His WAR on the season is 1.57. That's #159 in the NBA.

All I'm pointing out is highlight dunks don't mean a whole lot at this juncture. Is he an exciting young player? Of course but people vastly overrate him today. He's very good for a rookie but people frame it as if he's very good when compared to other proven veterans, which he really is not. His ORPM is slightly below guys like Courtney Lee, Kendall Marshall and (gulp) Delly. I'm not stating those guys are or will be better but AW's efficiency stats are generally awful for someone treated like a future star.

I mean, just look at the much maligned Kevin Love

His ORPM on the season is 1.61. That's #53 in the NBA.
His DRPM on the season is 1.67. That's #66 in the NBA.
His RPM on the season is 3.28. That's #42 in the NBA.
His WAR on the season is 8.21. That's #27 in the NBA.

If his DRPM continues to inch up, he'll be a top 60 player in all those markers, which is INCREDIBLE for a third option on a winning team. Especially since those markers aren't restricted by minutes played. Even in a year where he got off to a really slow start, his war is still really strong at 8.21. That's the 7th best out of all PF's and ahead of guys like Ibaka and Griffin. His Real plus minus stats align with Jimmy Butler, who is a 1B option on a top Eastern Conference team.

Maybe most impressive is his DRPM improvement. Of players that play at least 30 minutes a game, he ranks 8th among all PF's in that defensive metric. For all the people ragging on his defense, he's been more than adequate there and has improved from his time in Minnesota.

Now, can you imagine if he continues to shoot like he has post All-Star? He's shooting 45% from the floor and 40% from 3 (even while he's shot 1 more attempt per game).

Thanks for the info. Very informative. I was against the Wiggins trade, but not because Kevin was not a top player--rather, because I thought we gave up a historic amount for a player on the last year of his contract. If Love re-signs next year and beyond, well, then the trade makes sense. If his poor shooting at times can be blamed on his injuries as Windhorst believes, then perhaps we will see a different Kevin, who performs so well with at least a day's rest, in the playoffs.

I'd be interested if you could post your above figures comparing Kevin on a back-to-back versus at least one day's rest.

 

[Paul]

If you wanted to compare Kevin Love and Wiggins it seems like you'd also have to factor in that Wiggins output would decrease if he is playing with LeBron and Kyrie. He might get more open looks but he would be called on to score less and there could be a lot of issues with the 3 of them all wanting to handle the ball and create shots.

If love scores 25 in Minnesota and is now scoring 17 then what would Wiggins production be alongside Lebron and Kyrie. Would he basically be filling JRs role?

I think the correct move was to go for Love and try and create an immediate contender that would hopefully keep LeBron intent on staying in Cleveland. LeBron I believe is still hungry for championships. I do not believe he will be content to play out his career in Cleveland in "chill mode", on a team he believes doesn't have the pieces to contend. Wiggins has turned out to be decent, but that's hindsight. Just look at all the high draft picks who suck. The call was right, and now we just have to live with the results and hope it parlays into a championship.

 

[CommD]

The trade cannot be judged solely on the player's (Love & Wiggins) relative merit. Putting aside the other players and draft choices (indeed not insignificant assets), the issue at hand is Love contract status and it's resolution. I will also ignore the real possibility of bad back=damaged goods.

The many posters who declare the trade an unquestioned success for CLE are premature in their assessment. As Cavs fans, it is in our interest to (rightly) denigrate almost daily 'reporting' by leading national media figures that Love is as good as gone.

Hopefully, they are full of it, but the truth of the matter will play out for all to see. Cavs management and supporting fans have placed the power to validate the trade of Wiggins soley in the hands of Kevin Love. If CLE wins the championship THIS year, I for one will care less what Love chooses to do because it is his decision and I can only wait for it.

However, if they do not win it all this year, Love chooses to walk, the team's luxury tax/cap situation precludes adequate replacement, and they cannot successfully use the Haywood contract backup plan, then this trade WILL go down as one of the worst in NBA history.

I wouldn't has risked this outcome, but that's just me. Now it's the team managment (including James, who according to Windhorst supported the moving of Wiggins because he did not sign up with 'La Familia') and the fans who supported trade whose asses are on the line. It would be best for all concerned to get the job done NOW. I hope James is up to the task of providing the leadership and focus needed--it's his world now!

 

[Chris]

I'm not even convinced Wiggins is going to be a stud. People jumping the gun on him like crazy.

 

[TitleTown]

How is this conversation still happening?

We cannot judge this trade for another year or two. Two things have to happen before this trade can actually be judged effectively:

(1) We need to know whether or not Love is staying with the team long-term.

(2) We need to know whether or not Wiggins is actually a #1 option on a winning team.

It is VERY likely that we won't know either one until after 2016. Love will simply opt in for one more year because he's unhealthy and because he wants 2016 money, and Wiggins will need a couple years to develop into his potential.

So please, quit rehashing the same arguments over, and over, and over, and over, blah, blah, blah.

 

[randymoss1881]

I'm not even convinced Wiggins is going to be a stud. People jumping the gun on him like crazy.

Dude is averaging 19-5 as a rookie (since the cavs game. This is with weak handles and while getting double teamed as of the last month. He will be a 25ppg guy with very good within 3 years as long as he can get his handles to average level.

 

[Crosby_Cavs]

Dude is averaging 19-5 as a rookie (since the cavs game. This is with weak handles and while getting double teamed as of the last month. He will be a 25ppg guy with very good within 3 years as long as he can get his handles to average level.

No he will not be 25ppg guy within 3 years, or ever.

 

[Damien O'Connel]

No he will not be 25ppg guy within 3 years, or ever.

Pretty bold prediction to make about a teenager.

 

[clevelandrox23]

No he will not be 25ppg guy within 3 years, or ever.

Yea Wiggins is destined to be mediocre because he is not on our team! Right on brother. That Love trade was a no brainer, no really it was literally a no brainer, meaning Griffin had no brains to make that move, zing.

 

[CosmoKramer]

Why is everyone so eager to try and put a ceiling on one of the most promising rookies in years?

It's hilarious, half the people convinced Wiggins isn't going to be a stud were tripping over themselves praising Anthony Bennett's pathetic rookie season last year.

It's not totally surprising --- every fan base overrates their own players --- but the degree in which we nitpick other teams' talented young players with fine-toothed combs is laughable. Does anyone else remember @Cashius X getting flamed for suggesting we trade for Rudy Gobert last year? Now he's the toast of the league and has two of the best new nicknames of the year in The Stifle Tower and The French Rejection.

So to all the critics that aren't impressed and don't see a future star when watching Wiggins, get your shots in now. All the terrible comparisons from Gerald Green to Corey Brewer, get them out now. They're getting funnier and funnier by the day.

 

[Hydroponic3385]

I saw one poster say he's not convinced Wiggins will be a stud. He did not say that Wiggins won't or can't be, but rather that poster is not quick to jump to conclusions about a rookie. And another poster said he doesn't think he'll ever average 25 ppg in a season. Most/many perennial all-stars don't ever average 25 ppg.

Are these recent posts really all that critical or awful?

edited to add: I'm pretty neutral on this topic. I think Wiggins will be very good (anywhere from a good two-way player who is an all-star a couple years, to a perennial all-star with a couple monster years; although I'm not sure of his ability to be option 1-A on a team that wins it all, but I'd say that about 99% of the league), yet odds are good the trade will have worked out very well for us given where Love and Wiggins are at in their careers and what we need RIGHT NOW with LBJ in his prime.