Salary Cap won't be Smoothed in 2016 - Lockout Likely in 2017

[Birdy89]

ESPN put up a story today about how the cap will jump to around $88-92 million in 2016 from around a projected $66 million next year.

They had been talking about smoothing the huge jump so you didn't have 2016 free agents being the only ones to reap the benefit, but the players union rejected all of those proposals today. They would have gotten the same % of money, just divided differently.

Guys on max contracts were the big winners today.

Lockout in 2017 was likely anyway, but today all but guaranteed it. Could be a long one.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/1...y-cap-smoothing-historic-cap-increase-nba-set

 

[Ohio]

Just dont lose the whole season, I want as many championships as possible and 2017 is smack in the middle of our title window.

 

[Birdy89]

Just dont lose the whole season, I want as many championships as possible and 2017 is smack in the middle of our title window.

Supposedly the union already told guys to start saving their money. Everyone involved seems to think it might go on for a while because the players got beat up in the last agreement, but as with any collective bargaining session in sports the owners can always outlast the players.

I question player solidarity as well this time around. The smoothing proposals they turned down would have put more money in the pockets of the lower tier guys at the expense of the max contract guys, and the league is almost certainly going to try and divide and conquer with that among other things.

Neither side liked the last deal, so I think this is the one they are going to have it out and not settle until it becomes to painful not to. Whether that leads to a lost season who knows.

 

[Peachtree]

So plenty of rest for LBJ then?

 

[Stark]

Yeah that figures. Cavs finally are an elite team with young talent. Time for a lockout.

 

[Birdy89]

Yeah that figures. Cavs finally are an elite team with young talent. Time for a lockout.

I was thinking about how much it has changed from the last one. Remember Dan Gilbert leading a brigade of small market owners trying to make changes to avoid a repeat of the cheat?

Now he'll be fighting as if he's a major market owner given the payroll we are likely to have.

I think there is a contingent of owners that wants to break the system some how where guys force their way out to where they want to go essentially.

We got lucky Lebron is from Akron, because otherwise we would be in the same boat as the Minnesota's and Milwaukee's of the world that are a breeding ground until their stars move on to better pastures.

Maybe things won't get so bad, but I absolutely think there is going to be a full court assault to try and really combat super teams like we kind of saw in 2011 before they settled to avoid losing the season.

 

[elcheato]

I was thinking about how much it has changed from the last one. Remember Dan Gilbert leading a brigade of small market owners trying to make changes to avoid a repeat of the cheat?

Now he'll be fighting as if he's a major market owner given the payroll we are likely to have.

I think there is a contingent of owners that wants to break the system some how where guys force their way out to where they want to go essentially.

We got lucky Lebron is from Akron, because otherwise we would be in the same boat as the Minnesota's and Milwaukee's of the world that are a breeding ground until their stars move on to better pastures.

Maybe things won't get so bad, but I absolutely think there is going to be a full court assault to try and really combat super teams like we kind of saw in 2011 before they settled to avoid losing the season.

Never going to happen. The owners got their way last negotiation, they initiated the lock out. They'd be perfectly fine keeping this current CBA IMO. This time it looks like the players are the are going to be driving this one.

 

[Birdy89]

Never going to happen. The owners got their way last negotiation, they initiated the lock out. They'd be perfectly fine keeping this current CBA IMO. This time it looks like the players are the are going to be driving this one.

What are they driving really? When push comes to shove billionaires are always going to outlast millionaires in a negotiation. What is it the players want that you think they are going to push for?

 

[gourimoko]

What are they driving really? When push comes to shove billionaires are always going to outlast millionaires in a negotiation. What is it the players want that you think they are going to push for?

They may want a larger than expected share of BRI due to having felt cheated out of the last deal. They also want to remove the age limit for the draft, going back to allowing high schoolers to get drafted. There was some very fiery rhetoric getting tossed out by the NBPA regarding these issues.

My hope is that since the new commissioner is apparently very close with the players on most aspects of reform, that a potential lockout could be solved sooner than it would have otherwise under Stern.

 

[Birdy89]

The age thing at best stays the same but more likely moves to 20 in exchange for something else the players want.

The NBA has no interest in having to go back to scouting in high school gyms again and if anything want to replicate the free feeder system with the NCAA like the NFL has.

Silver said earlier in the year he wants a harder cap actually, which the players will never go for.

Once the CBA is re-opened all bets are off.

Interested to see if the dynamic is any different this time with 2 max guys (Lebron and Paul) in the main leadership positions. Their interests aren't necessarily the same as the younger guys that aren't making a ton of money.

 

[Kizzle]

If the fight is max players being able to make more against average deals for lesser players being a lilttle higher then I'm for the latter. 90% of the time max players don't even live up to the contract.


Either Durant makes 28 per or a Waiters who normally would get 6-7 per now gets 9-10 I gotta vote for the Waiters type talent getting a raise. It'll make teams better

 

[gourimoko]

If the fight is max players being able to make more against average deals for lesser players being a lilttle higher then I'm for the latter. 90% of the time max players don't even live up to the contract.

Either Durant makes 28 per or a Waiters who normally would get 6-7 per now gets 9-10 I gotta vote for the Waiters type talent getting a raise. It'll make teams better

I think the owners and the league would actually not prefer to lower the maximum salary cap because it would allow for more superteams, not less.

I think the owners will continue to look for ways to find league parity through the CBA.

I think a hard cap (with fair compensation to the players) would do that.

 

[theSwayze]

Stern being replaced by Silver is a hard variable to weigh. I always felt like Stern would rather win than be right- which is not a terrible negotiating tactic if your opponents know that about you.
It'll be interesting to see how Silver approaches this. He seems like a guy who wants to keep thing running smooth.
I'm hoping for a short lockout, no missed games, a watered down "ramp" that shares a bit but not too much and a season of 82 games with no more back to back as the season eats a week of preseason and runs one week longer. Yay optimism!!

 

[Birdy89]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

This will all but solidify a lockout is coming after the 2016-17 season.

The league advised the cap is set to jump to $89 Million in 16-17, and then $108 million in 17-18.

That all but insures the owners will opt out after the 16-17 season before the cap jumps another $20 million.

Crazy times are ahead as the free agent class next season will cash in like never before but after that who knows what things will look like after a work stoppage.

Almost feel bad for the guys who weren't lucky enough to be FA's that season as it is looking like a once in a lifetime opportunity to cash in.

 

[MirORich]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

This will all but solidify a lockout is coming after the 2016-17 season.

The league advised the cap is set to jump to $89 Million in 16-17, and then $108 million in 17-18.

That all but insures the owners will opt out after the 16-17 season before the cap jumps another $20 million.

Crazy times are ahead as the free agent class next season will cash in like never before but after that who knows what things will look like after a work stoppage.

Almost feel bad for the guys who weren't lucky enough to be FA's that season as it is looking like a once in a lifetime opportunity to cash in.

There may be a lockout. It will come and be blustery. And eventually it will end.. the lockout in 99 resulted in a 50 game season. The last lockout resulted in a 66 game season. So for all the big talk you'll hear in the next few years, it doesn't really amount to that much. The game is way to popular and way too healthy for either side to be dumb enough cause more than 15-30 games to be missed. And truthfully, with a 33 year old LeBron and a team that will be coming off of multiple deep playoff runs, a shortened season in 2017-2018 might not be the worst thing for the Cavs.

But the cap is rising so much because revenue is rising so much via the new TV deal. Not because the players unilaterally said, this is how much we think the cap should rise over the next few years.

So the lockout will not be about the cap getting to big, it will simply be another argument about what % of this insane revenue is deserved by the player and what % is deserved by the owners.