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All of his characters follow the same baseline goal, whatever it is for their character, until that course of action fails them.
I think that's generally true of most major characters in any story.
For one, none of the major power players are acting in a way that makes sense for their desires. Sure, Ramsay's claim to the North is a bit stronger with Sansa as a bride, but at what cost? Would the Bolton's be so quick to alienate themselves from both Stannis and the Lannisters, his one and only powerful ally backing his claim?
It was established in the books that the Boltons probably could not hold the North without the support of the Northern Lords. That's why they needed fake Arya -- Jeyne Poole -- so badly. I personally always thought the fake Arya plot was pretty dumb (too many lords would recognize it and their legitimacy would end), and there are other reasons I think the writers were right to jettison it. But in any case, the fact that the Boltons need a Stark to hold the North was established expressly in both the books and show.
As for Stannis and the Lannisters, Stannis is coming for him no matter what, so that's unavoidable.
With respect to the Lannisters, It was also established that the ability of southern lords to project power in the North was very limited. In fact, I don't think there's anything suggesting a southern army ever operated effectively in the North. Given that 1) Winter is coming and mobility will be dropping, 2) the problems the Lannisters are facing with the death of Tywin, and 3) the reality that Lord Kevan Lannister is extremely unlikely to send a Lannister army into the North, it's a pretty fair bet that the Lannisters aren't going to take any aggressive action to either help or hinder the Boltons. So essentially, the Boltons are on their own, which mean they need Sansa. Especially if they think they're own forces might not be strong enough to defeat Stannis. They need Sansa to rally northern help.
In any case, the Boltons might also think that they could argue their way around it if need be. They could say they need to hold the North, can't do it without Sansa, and that Tyrion was the guilty party anyway. Seems to be a better play than not having any Stark link at all. Or at least, it's a reasonable play, which is all the writers need.
And why would Littlefinger go through all the work to capture Sansa only to leave her at Winterfell, so he could make a claim on the North himself? There'd be many other ways to accomplish this without forfeiting such a powerful piece.
I agree it's a risk, but it's pretty brilliant if you consider Baelish's ultimate goals. We know he hates the Starks, and loved Cersei, and very likely loves Sansa. So a plausible dream scenario end-game for him would be to be Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North, and married to Sansa. But that cannot happen as long as Roose Bolton is Warden of the North in Winterfell. So, he not only must get rid of the Boltons, but also gain title as Warden of the North. That can only come from the King, which in this case means Cersei.
So, what are the "many other ways" to get rid of the Boltons, be named "Warden of the North, and get Sansa? I just don't see other options that are significantly more plausible.
But most importantly, after all Sansa has been through and survived, after all the growth she has gone through, would she so absentmindedly walked into this situation without any preparedness?
I realize that debating how much growth Sansa has actually had is an extremely controversial topic with fans of that character, so I won't open that can of worms. Because I think the basic answer is that the other options she has suck as well.
What does she really have in the Eyrie? It's not her home, she has no legal claim at all, and what's her real future there? Be married off to some other guy she barely knows? Heck, KL is not that far away at all, and Cersei still wants her punished for Joffrey's murder. Getting as far away from the long arm of Queen Cersei is something that should be pretty high on Sansa's prioriiy list.
Winterfell? Well, it's a place to which she actually has title, which is an independent source of power for her. And, it puts her among Northernors, people who are far more likely to protect her from the long arm of the Lannisters, which probably can't even reach her in the North at all.
Now, it has the very distasteful requirement that she marry a Bolton, but LF is promising her that it will work out. Maybe she shouldn't trust him, but the reality is that from her perspective, she's even more dependent on LF's good intentions when she's in the Eyrie. If LF is he's a rat, he'd just screw her over in the Eyrie anyway.
Also, she really doesn't have any idea that Ramsay is as bad as he really is. She may think she'd be given a certain amount of freedom around the castle and grounds, etc. and if she ever decided to flee, she'd much rather have to fend for herself amongst a generally friendly population in lands she knows rather than wandering the Riverlands or Vale with no friends.
I'm sure there are countervailing arguments, but I don't think the choices made are so unreasonable as to preclude what happened as a plausible plot change.
I'll address the other stuff separately because I think it goes beyond the pure plot-related points just discussed.
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