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#12: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington

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Thanks for the link.

First and foremost the statistic is wrong. Michael Brockers is a 3 year starter and ran a 5.31. So Shelton would not be the first.

Secondly I only counted 27 such players in the time frame. I could have skipped over a few, but I don't have time to go back and check.

Of the 27
undrafted- 16
round 1-0
round 2-2
round 3-1
round 4- 2
round 5-2
round 6-2
round 7-2

So 81.4% of all those studied were either not drafted or drafted in the fifth round or later. The only first round pick with a 40 with 5.31 from 99-2012 or higher was Brockers who actually is a 3 year starter. So Danny has a 100% chance of being Michael Brockers.

But really, crappy statistical findings that speak to nothing about Shelton. A bunch of undrafted guys weren't 3 year starters. My guess is that wasn't just because of their 40 times...
Michael Brockers wasn't counted as the study was done in 2013. You are correct though. So 1/23 defensive tackles who ran the 40 in 5.31 or slower became three year starters.

Michael Brockers PFF grades over the last 3 seasons were -1.5, -7.1, and -3.1. He's a run stuffing specialist who makes no impact as a pass rusher.

Your analysis suggests to me that most teams pick slow, heavy run stuffers in the fifth round or later.
 
Are you trying to say "three-down player?"

That's a far more rational argument to make using athleticism.
No, I'm saying that unless Shelton reforms his body, which seems possible given what we've heard about his work ethic, something will happen to him over the next three years... an injury, ineffectiveness, outplayed by a UDFA... that will keep him from becoming a three year starter.
 
Based on what, exactly...The X number of other players in this sample? Without any reference to their draft position?

Shelton has often been the first player on the field for some of these practices, there is nothing out there to back up his "work ethic" outside of being a huge motherfucker.
 
Michael Brockers wasn't counted as the study was done in 2013. You are correct though. So 1/23 defensive tackles who ran the 40 in 5.31 or slower became three year starters.

Michael Brockers PFF grades over the last 3 seasons were -1.5, -7.1, and -3.1. He's a run stuffing specialist who makes no impact as a pass rusher.

Your analysis suggests to me that most teams pick slow, heavy run stuffers in the fifth round or later.

Those two players could not be more dissimilar in their style of play.

Brockers is nowhere near the true 0-tech Shelton is, and he's playing in St. Louis' 4-3 system to boot.
 
Tracking 40 time for durability makes as much sense as number of letters in a person's last name for durability.

I really dont understand the reason why someone would waste time to track 40 time. Small sample size, and a huge stretch why it matters to durability,
 
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I tend to believe numbers even if they don't make sense.

According to these numbers, Shelton's 40 time indicates he won't end up being a three year starter.

I understand your point, but I think you're failing to consider whether Shelton even belongs in the cohort you've identified, because I think he has other measurables that make him unique (at least as far as I checked). The dude is comparatively short, weighs 339 pounds, and some beat guys have commented on how he has the biggest thighs they've ever seen. Big thighs and being relatively short obviously makes it harder to get to a high top speed, but it begs the question of what kind of explosion/strength he's got in his legs.

So I looked at DT's who weighed as much as Danny 1999-2015. Then I looked at their vertical jump, because that measures leg strength/explosion.

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2015&pos=DT&college=

Shelton weighed 339. His vertical was 30.5 inches. Nobody in the 2015-1999 draft classes who weighed as much or more than Shelton had a vertical jump that high. Full disclosure -- Haloti Ngata only weighed a little less while jumping 2 inches higher. But that's exceptionally freaky.

I also looked at your link for the study done from 1999-2012. And I looked only at the guys who started at least 3 years. According to the results, the average weight was 304 lbs, the average vertical was 30.2.

What absolutely jumps out again is Shelton's vertical. Despite weighing 35 pounds more than the average 3 year starter, he had a higher vertical jump. The bottom line is that he has absolutely freakish leg strength/explosion, that is so far above the average (even for three years starters) that comparing his 40 times to successful players who can't approach his leg strength is cherry picking stats, especially since most pro scouts would dismiss the important of 40 times for an NT.
 
So if Danny Shelton becomes a three year starter, he will be an exception to the rule.

The phrase is "The exception confirms the rule in cases not excepted". Which means the opposite of your intended statement.

For instance if the phrase "There's no such thing as a dancing bear" is the rule. Sure I can train a bear to dance, but my action of training the bear is "the case not excepted". Human Q-Tip illustrates why Danny Shelton is not comparable to those statistics. Not because he is an exception... but because he is a case not excepted.

I understand your point, but I think you're failing to consider whether Shelton even belongs in the cohort you've identified, because I think he has other measurables that make him unique (at least as far as I checked). The dude is comparatively short, weighs 339 pounds, and some beat guys have commented on how he has the biggest thighs they've ever seen. Big thighs and being relatively short obviously makes it harder to get to a high top speed, but it begs the question of what kind of explosion/strength he's got in his legs.

So I looked at DT's who weighed as much as Danny 1999-2015. Then I looked at their vertical jump, because that measures leg strength/explosion.

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2015&pos=DT&college=

Shelton weighed 339. His vertical was 30.5 inches. Nobody in the 2015-1999 draft classes who weighed as much or more than Shelton had a vertical jump that high. Full disclosure -- Haloti Ngata only weighed a little less while jumping 2 inches higher. But that's exceptionally freaky.

I also looked at your link for the study done from 1999-2012. And I looked only at the guys who started at least 3 years. According to the results, the average weight was 304 lbs, the average vertical was 30.2.

What absolutely jumps out again is Shelton's vertical. Despite weighing 35 pounds more than the average 3 year starter, he had a higher vertical jump. The bottom line is that he has absolutely freakish leg strength/explosion, that is so far above the average (even for three years starters) that comparing his 40 times to successful players who can't approach his leg strength is cherry picking stats, especially since most pro scouts would dismiss the important of 40 times for an NT.
 
Shelton already was an exception to the rule, simply from a size/position perspective in that sample.

So the data doesn't really hold much/any validity at all.
 
I understand your point, but I think you're failing to consider whether Shelton even belongs in the cohort you've identified, because I think he has other measurables that make him unique (at least as far as I checked). The dude is comparatively short, weighs 339 pounds, and some beat guys have commented on how he has the biggest thighs they've ever seen. Big thighs and being relatively short obviously makes it harder to get to a high top speed, but it begs the question of what kind of explosion/strength he's got in his legs.

So I looked at DT's who weighed as much as Danny 1999-2015. Then I looked at their vertical jump, because that measures leg strength/explosion.

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2015&pos=DT&college=

Shelton weighed 339. His vertical was 30.5 inches. Nobody in the 2015-1999 draft classes who weighed as much or more than Shelton had a vertical jump that high. Full disclosure -- Haloti Ngata only weighed a little less while jumping 2 inches higher. But that's exceptionally freaky.

I also looked at your link for the study done from 1999-2012. And I looked only at the guys who started at least 3 years. According to the results, the average weight was 304 lbs, the average vertical was 30.2.

What absolutely jumps out again is Shelton's vertical. Despite weighing 35 pounds more than the average 3 year starter, he had a higher vertical jump. The bottom line is that he has absolutely freakish leg strength/explosion, that is so far above the average (even for three years starters) that comparing his 40 times to successful players who can't approach his leg strength is cherry picking stats, especially since most pro scouts would dismiss the important of 40 times for an NT.
Thank you for the thoughtful, researched, well-reasoned post. You make several valid points that give me hope Shelton might live up to his lofty draft position despite looking and running like the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.
 
The horse is starting to drink the water, gentlemen. After standing next to the stream for a few days, thirsty, neighing "Fuck water" under his horsey breath... sips are being taken.

I have to say, I know a bright high school coaching mind who also thought drafting a nose tackle in the top half of the first round seemed like a waste. I get why crabbyshark is apprehensive about Shelton if his issue is the value of a nose tackle at #12. Traditionally, the top half of the first round is for elite skill position players, left tackles, shut-down corners and edge rushers. If you aren't one of those things, you better be a sure fire Pro Bowler.

At times, it seems crabby is arguing that prototype nose tackles aren't valuable. That is an error, because they are the lynchpin of a 3-4 defense. Defensive tackles in a 4-3 defense have a different skillset than a nose tackle, and we saw Browns front offices try to force true nose tackles into a 4-3 before without much success. I still remember that 1999 team with a washed up John Jurkovic and Jerry Ball trying to play a 2 technique or 3 technique. It is the recent history of the Browns to switch from 4-3 to 3-4 and back again, rarely assembling the proper personnel for the new scheme.

So drafting a nose tackle in the top half of the first puts a lot of pressure on Shelton to be elite, just as drafting an inside linebacker or guard that high puts pressure on that player to justify the draft slot. So far, it looks like Shelton will be an elite nose tackle, and it also looks like he has some ability to contribute more than a "0 technique" like Jerry Ball, Ted Washington, or another former Browns nose tackle who couldn't run without a doughnut tied to a stick in front of his nose.
 
Yes and this:

"The biggest problem I had with Shelton is consistency. I understand that defensive lineman aren't going to win even half of their battles, but Shelton disappeared for quarters at a time. You'd like to see a guy who many tout as a top 10 player in this class to show up more than 2-3 times in a 60-70 play stretch. I noted Shelton "disappears too much", "didn't make plays consistently", "no where to be found in the 2nd half."

That last quote brings me to my next point. It's one of the bigger concerns I have with Shelton. Not only are you taking a guy that will likely play 35% of the time at most early on, but most of his production came in the 1st half. Take for example, the Oregon game. He was leaning on offensive lineman throughout the 2nd half of the game. The same can be said against Illinois and Cal. Shelton has been compared to "freaks" like Haloti Ngata or Donatri Poe, he's not that type of player. Those guys play at a high level for 80% of the game."


Also this:

"Forget his sluggish combine times, Shelton has the mass and lateral quickness of Vince Wilfork with some Casey Hampton thrown in. He manhandles blockers in front of him. What's the problem? Will Shelton keep himself in game shape after he gets paid? His weight can be a big issue if he's not careful. There are coaches from the former Washington staff who believe Shelton had a "contract year" and that he was on his best behavior as he began on his path to the NFL draft."


Shelton will probably be a valuable player for the Browns. There are some concerns, in my opinion, and, in my opinion, it's hard not to think they couldn't have gotten similar value later in the draft.
 
I remember years ago when Browns fans sold themselves on the idea that a noise tackle taken in the 7th round could be just as good as one in the first because noise tackle was such a niche position. Seems that some are doing it again.

As for conditioning and weight issues, interior defensive linemen face this issue. It is the risk factor of a position that requires every athlete to be both in top shape yet be morbidly obese to perform. The concern is there but it is for all NTs due to the thin line they all walk with their weight.

As for 'value' at the pick, well, that depends solely on whether Shelton establishes himself as a starter or not. In a 3-4 a quality NT is not an after thought. The NT anchors your run defense, and Shelton looks like he is poised to that. If we see improvement there, he was worth the pick.
 
There are some concerns, in my opinion, and, in my opinion, it's hard not to think they couldn't have gotten similar value later in the draft.

What does that mean?

I think most people would define "value" as a function of expected contribution v. draft position. "Value" should be relatively constant throughout the draft, so saying we could have gotten "similar value" later doesn't seem like much of an argument. It just means we could have gotten a player who wasn't as good later in the draft.

Well, sure. But so what?
 
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Shelton has been above and beyond expectations by almost everyone who has seen him play.

That's all that matters, it seems as though the light came on.
 
Shelton has been above and beyond expectations by almost everyone who has seen him play.

That's all that matters, it seems as though the light came on.

The run defense has been so bad for so long that I think the team rightly set that as the priority. If the tape they saw and interviews they did convinced them that Shelton had the best chance of solving that problem, then it was the right move. Yes, perhaps we could have gotten someone that wasn't quite as good later in the draft, and used the No. 12 on someone else. But the problem with that is the "not quite as good" guy is less likely to solve the problem, and we find ourselves right back where we started. I think teams get in trouble draft-wise when they try to outsmart themselves.

Shelton was a perfect example of need matching availability in the draft. Stud run-stopping NT (perhaps more) is exactly what this 3-4 defense needed.
 

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