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15 Year NBA Draft Analysis

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I should point out that I only did 15 years because going back farther than that, it seemed to start getting into drafts that seem kind of...archaic....the years before high schoolers and international players were taken. Going back too far, felt like the data would start to be a little irrelevant to the modern NBA.

I also want to say - to CalBuckeyeRob , you mentioned that we can all agree that Cleveland will not get an elite player as a free agent. Strangely enough, the NBA is a league that severely discourages players moving teams in free agency. I tried to think of the last "elite" player to change teams via free agency and I still haven't come up with someone. That's not counting this 2010 offseason, which, depending on your definition of "elite", saw James, Amare, Boozer and Bosh all switch teams. This was likely due to teams clearing cap space for the bonanza. But I looked back to the 04-05 season for an elite (All NBA 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team) player to have changed teams in free agency and i I don't think it ever happened. Anyone have any ideas?

In normal circumstances, the system works. Teams keep their players because the rules let them pay more. When high quality players do move in free agency, it's when a team dramatically overpays for less-than-elite talent. To sign an elite talent, you need quite a lot of cap space, and only quite bad teams have the kind of cap space to do it, so the match is rarely made. Let's not feel sorry for ourselves as Cleveland fans and say no great free agent will sign here because great free agents rarely move in that way. That's why we ended up with Larry Hughes when (I don't care what the front office said) we really wanted Michael Redd or Ray Allen.

Trades is where it has to happen. Gotta find the morons who are dealing the Pau Gasols of the world for next to nothing. Also it's unfortunate that Jamison seems to have somewhat diminishing skills because his big fat expiring contract next year would have been nice to acquire some legitimate talent from a contending team, if they were desperate for PF help. Say we sucked bad both this year and next - 2 shots at top 5 picks, plus a little somethin' somethin' for that 15 million expiring might be the beginnings of a plan.
 
I should point out that I only did 15 years because going back farther than that, it seemed to start getting into drafts that seem kind of...archaic....the years before high schoolers and international players were taken. Going back too far, felt like the data would start to be a little irrelevant to the modern NBA.

I also want to say - to CalBuckeyeRob , you mentioned that we can all agree that Cleveland will not get an elite player as a free agent. Strangely enough, the NBA is a league that severely discourages players moving teams in free agency. I tried to think of the last "elite" player to change teams via free agency and I still haven't come up with someone. That's not counting this 2010 offseason, which, depending on your definition of "elite", saw James, Amare, Boozer and Bosh all switch teams. This was likely due to teams clearing cap space for the bonanza. But I looked back to the 04-05 season for an elite (All NBA 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team) player to have changed teams in free agency and i I don't think it ever happened. Anyone have any ideas?

In normal circumstances, the system works. Teams keep their players because the rules let them pay more. When high quality players do move in free agency, it's when a team dramatically overpays for less-than-elite talent. To sign an elite talent, you need quite a lot of cap space, and only quite bad teams have the kind of cap space to do it, so the match is rarely made. Let's not feel sorry for ourselves as Cleveland fans and say no great free agent will sign here because great free agents rarely move in that way. That's why we ended up with Larry Hughes when (I don't care what the front office said) we really wanted Michael Redd or Ray Allen.

Trades is where it has to happen. Gotta find the morons who are dealing the Pau Gasols of the world for next to nothing. Also it's unfortunate that Jamison seems to have somewhat diminishing skills because his big fat expiring contract next year would have been nice to acquire some legitimate talent from a contending team, if they were desperate for PF help. Say we sucked bad both this year and next - 2 shots at top 5 picks, plus a little somethin' somethin' for that 15 million expiring might be the beginnings of a plan.

Trying to get a key piece in a trade ultimately will need to be part of any winning plan. That is probably why I would aggressively explore getting a guy like Oden if Portland would prefer to get something they can use right now for him. No idea if he will ever be 100%, but he is still no older than a typical guy that spent 4 years in college, and for now Oden would do nothing to help the Cavs stay out of the top of the draft.
 
Trades is where it has to happen. Gotta find the morons who are dealing the Pau Gasols of the world for next to nothing.

It's a damned shame that opportunities like this barely ever come around and when they do the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, and Bulls will always get first crack. If that's our plan, I don't see why people are complaining about all the luck it would take goint the lottery route.

Getting an elite player is a long-shot any which way you spin it, but for this city, the way that gives us the best chance, WITHOUT a doubt, to get that type of player is the draft.
 
Injury prone players tend to remain injury prone players.. I don't have the time to put up a pie chart a'la Matches, but I can tell you from my 16 plus years of roto-baseball and basketball drafting strategy it's true (hey, I'll take a flyer on Juan Gonzalez, if he stays healthy I've got 25+ HR's and 90+ RBI's!). Maybe Oden turns into Z as far as his return to health, but I gotta think Greg is all but done. He'd be a better fit for a team like Boston, who doesn't need him but if he hits, good for them, you now have a double double center and a top flight PG as your team transitions. A team like Cleveland would NEED him to find his health.

Matches, I wonder if the mid/late round surge in player productivity vs the middle of the draft is due to players being drafted to good situations where their roles are better defined, as opposed to losing situations where they are expected to do more but ultimately can't.
 
I should point out that I only did 15 years because going back farther than that, it seemed to start getting into drafts that seem kind of...archaic....the years before high schoolers and international players were taken. Going back too far, felt like the data would start to be a little irrelevant to the modern NBA.

I also want to say - to CalBuckeyeRob , you mentioned that we can all agree that Cleveland will not get an elite player as a free agent. Strangely enough, the NBA is a league that severely discourages players moving teams in free agency. I tried to think of the last "elite" player to change teams via free agency and I still haven't come up with someone. That's not counting this 2010 offseason, which, depending on your definition of "elite", saw James, Amare, Boozer and Bosh all switch teams. This was likely due to teams clearing cap space for the bonanza. But I looked back to the 04-05 season for an elite (All NBA 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team) player to have changed teams in free agency and i I don't think it ever happened. Anyone have any ideas?

In normal circumstances, the system works. Teams keep their players because the rules let them pay more. When high quality players do move in free agency, it's when a team dramatically overpays for less-than-elite talent. To sign an elite talent, you need quite a lot of cap space, and only quite bad teams have the kind of cap space to do it, so the match is rarely made. Let's not feel sorry for ourselves as Cleveland fans and say no great free agent will sign here because great free agents rarely move in that way. That's why we ended up with Larry Hughes when (I don't care what the front office said) we really wanted Michael Redd or Ray Allen.

Trades is where it has to happen. Gotta find the morons who are dealing the Pau Gasols of the world for next to nothing. Also it's unfortunate that Jamison seems to have somewhat diminishing skills because his big fat expiring contract next year would have been nice to acquire some legitimate talent from a contending team, if they were desperate for PF help. Say we sucked bad both this year and next - 2 shots at top 5 picks, plus a little somethin' somethin' for that 15 million expiring might be the beginnings of a plan.

The only "elite" player (that I am aware of - other than this year, of course) to change teams as an unrestricted FA was Shaq in 1996 - he went from Orlando to the Lakers.

Very interesting post and data - some more interesting "data":

For the last 20 drafts.

Record (1 is worst)//number of times getting the first overall pick


  1. 3
  2. 1
  3. 5
  4. 2
  5. 4
  6. 2
  7. 1
  8. 0
  9. 1
  10. 0
  11. 1
  12. 0
  13. 0
  14. 0


So, having the worst overall record gets you the first overall pick (only)15% of the time. From the data, you have a better chance of getting the #1 pick if you have the third worsdt overall record.
 
Where was our Rasheed last year?

Last year he was named Antawn Jamison and I do believe we got him.

If you prefer to limit this to nutcases who can play D, then you've got Ron Artest who's sitting pretty with a ring.
 
Trying to get a key piece in a trade ultimately will need to be part of any winning plan. That is probably why I would aggressively explore getting a guy like Oden if Portland would prefer to get something they can use right now for him. No idea if he will ever be 100%, but he is still no older than a typical guy that spent 4 years in college, and for now Oden would do nothing to help the Cavs stay out of the top of the draft.

We shouldn't trade for him. He will be a restricted FA this summer.
 
It's a damned shame that opportunities like this barely ever come around and when they do the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, and Bulls will always get first crack. If that's our plan, I don't see why people are complaining about all the luck it would take goint the lottery route.

Getting an elite player is a long-shot any which way you spin it, but for this city, the way that gives us the best chance, WITHOUT a doubt, to get that type of player is the draft.

If I owned an NBA franchise, I sure wouldn't stake my chance of success on "luck" at all. I'd look at ways to eliminate luck, and build a successful team based on best practices.
 
Who have been the best players in the NBA over the last 10 years (top 5, in no particular order):
Duncan, KG, Shaq, Lebron, and Kobe? I'd still put in Shaq in there though he regressed as he was clearly the best player in the league in the first 4 years of the decade. Depending on how nitpicky you want to be, you can think about adding guys like Howard who is probably pretty close to cracking the top 5 now. Maybe Wade, maybe Dirk, maybe Kidd, maybe Nash. Still I think most people would be happy with that top 5
How many teams won titles without one those guys?

Detroit and that's it: depressing to read that if you're a Cavs fan right now. Detroit seems to have a knack for doing this as the Bad Boys were built along the same lines as there recent runs (don't get me wrong Isiah was great and all but he wasn't the same level of player as Jordan, BIrd, and Magic were)
 
I think this all could change dramatically after this offseason. A new CBA that demands a hard cap and hard basement and possibly the contraction of 2 teams (though I think that's doubtful currently) would alter the NBA landscape completely. Would a Miami or LA or Boston be able to field the teams they do under that scenario? And wouldn't this change matches' chart? What would happen if you had an NBA landscape filled with deep teams vs the one you have now where a few have's and everyone else pretty much playing for a 5th through 8th seed and a 1st round exit (and a few more teams so bad they have no hope of clawing their way out of lottery-ville)? And if there are fewer teams, less money for most players, fewer minutes, wouldn't the borderline college kid stay another year or two in the NCAA or go overseas or to the NBADL, meaning the rookies coming in might actually know how to play basketball vs know how to dunk a basketball?

I don't know, thinking out loud.. always a bad idea at the weepinwillow household.
 
This thread shows perfectly the difference between the NBA and the NFL. In the NFL, you can get impact players all the way through the first two rounds, sometimes into the first three. That's why the Patriots (who are clearly rebuilding), are able to stay competitive and still reload their roster.

It gives me this crazy idea that maybe in the NBA, the draft should be held every two years, and teams with the worst cumulative record from those two years would be seeded that way. Then, instead of having to be in the top 10 or top 5 to be able to get an impact player (as the analysis of the OP suggests), maybe you could be in the top 20 or top 15, which gives the "treadmill" teams a chance to improve as well. Then, the worst teams are still at an advantage over everyone else because they might be able to hit on a big player at the top of round 2, rather than being forced to go for role players at that point.
 
Who have been the best players in the NBA over the last 10 years (top 5, in no particular order):
Duncan, KG, Shaq, Lebron, and Kobe? I'd still put in Shaq in there though he regressed as he was clearly the best player in the league in the first 4 years of the decade. Depending on how nitpicky you want to be, you can think about adding guys like Howard who is probably pretty close to cracking the top 5 now. Maybe Wade, maybe Dirk, maybe Kidd, maybe Nash. Still I think most people would be happy with that top 5
How many teams won titles without one those guys?

Detroit and that's it: depressing to read that if you're a Cavs fan right now. Detroit seems to have a knack for doing this as the Bad Boys were built along the same lines as there recent runs (don't get me wrong Isiah was great and all but he wasn't the same level of player as Jordan, BIrd, and Magic were)

Duncan is the only player in your list who was drafted by the team that won a championship with him, Wade the only one in your secondary list.

Boston traded for a past his prime KG, just like Miami traded for a past his prime Shaq, and the Lakers traded for the draft rights to Kobe, and signed Shaq as a free-agent.

The only thing painfully clear is that there wasn't an OKC type team in the bunch. Teams like Miami which had a young/successful core and Boston which at least had a young/unsuccessfull core didn't break through until they spent their young players on veterans. The Spurs took advantage or Robinson's injury to tank for Duncan. They then built on that through late picks and their advanced scouting of Euro players.
 
I think this all could change dramatically after this offseason. A new CBA that demands a hard cap and hard basement and possibly the contraction of 2 teams (though I think that's doubtful currently) would alter the NBA landscape completely. Would a Miami or LA or Boston be able to field the teams they do under that scenario? And wouldn't this change matches' chart? What would happen if you had an NBA landscape filled with deep teams vs the one you have now where a few have's and everyone else pretty much playing for a 5th through 8th seed and a 1st round exit (and a few more teams so bad they have no hope of clawing their way out of lottery-ville)? And if there are fewer teams, less money for most players, fewer minutes, wouldn't the borderline college kid stay another year or two in the NCAA or go overseas or to the NBADL, meaning the rookies coming in might actually know how to play basketball vs know how to dunk a basketball?

I don't know, thinking out loud.. always a bad idea at the weepinwillow household.

You're reminding me the Cavs had the misfortune to be successful the year before the ABA dispersal draft. Teams with cap space and a bad record may very well get rewarded if some of the teams are folded. Just taking New Orleans for example since the NBA happens to now own the team ... but imagine if Chris Paul was essentially placed on waivers for any team that could afford to pickup his contract?
 
Last year he was named Antawn Jamison and I do believe we got him.

If you prefer to limit this to nutcases who can play D, then you've got Ron Artest who's sitting pretty with a ring.

Exactly, that's what I'm saying, the best available for us was Jamison. Not Rasheed. Where was our 6'11 defensive stud who could defend anyone in the league one on one with a great post-game and amazing range.

Hell, we would have beaten Orlando in 2009 with old Rasheed. (not that that has any relevance to this discussion, and we probably would have beaten them with Jamison too because he has a history of obliterating Rashard Lewis...gah)
 

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