2012 Finals !!

[FiveThous]

Lets jump right into the matchups and then I will have some random thoughts at the end

PG
Westbrook vs Chalmers

This one is pretty easy to call here Westbrook will be running circles around Chalmers this whole matchup.

Edge: Thunder

SG
Sefolosha vs Wade

Wade needs to get started early in this Finals matchup otherwise I think Sefolosha's D simply irritates and ultimately ends up neutralizing Wade. Wade does benefit from not having to worry to much about Sefolosha on offense and will be able to slack off a bit defensively.

Edge: Heat

SF
KD vs LBJ

The NBA has been dreaming of this matchup since KD entered the league. KD is the best scorer in the league vs Lebron the best player in the league. There really is no advantage on either side of this matchup

Edge: Draw

PF
Bosh vs Ibaka

Bosh wins this matchup going into the series. However, if Ibaka continues to hit that jumper this is going to be the unheralded matchup of the series.

Edge: Heat

C
Perkins vs Anthony

With Bosh healthy I think you see Anthony starting again. While the offense will be atrociously bad from both of these players, the defensive edge will favor Perkins.

Edge: Thunder

Bench
Harden, Fisher & crew vs Miller, Battier and Co.

Harden's offense and Fisher's experience seal the deal for the bench here.

Edge: Thunder

Coaching
Scotty Brooks vs Spo

The Spurs series made me a believer in Coach Brooks while the Celtics series made me realize that the Heat don't really care what Spo is saying.

Edge: Thunder

The Thunder win the edge with coaching and bench and draw with starting lineups against the Heat. I think the Thunder take the series in 5



Random Thoughts
Sefolosho is my X-Factor, he has to slow down Wade and put the pressure on James
I think you see the rise of KD here on the defensive end and he is able to slow down the king a tad.
The Thunder are hungry, battle tasted and overall more talented from top to bottom which is why I am picking them.
I think you see a lot of Perkins on Bosh this series while Ibaka floats weakside on Anthony/Haslem and the rest of their big rotation.


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[Numbers Guy]

I think we'll see Wade on Westbrook quite a bit.. Chalmers doesn't have the size to match up well. I do see the Thunder winning this series.. but I wouldn't be shocked if Miami did, however.

 

[kookoo]

I'm happy that a team the Heat are playing finally has a SF that no one but LeBron can guard. Battier can't stay with Durant all game. Hopefully that will tire LeBron out. Sad that I won't be able to watch games 1 and 2 because I'll be in Scotland, running with the Olympic torch next thursday (sorry, I had to put that shameless plug in).

 

[gourimoko]

Why is anyone on this board, this forum of all forums, giving Durant a tie against #6. #6 is, by far, the best player in the league. That match-up is not remotely a tie.

 

[Steve_424]

Why is anyone on this board, this forum of all forums, giving Durant a tie against #6. #6 is, by far, the best player in the league. That match-up is not remotely a tie.

That's completely debatable.

2012 Playoff Statistics

James - 22 shots per game, 31 PPG, .512 FG%, .281 3PT%, .719 FT%, 9.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, 3.5 TOPG, 2.0 SPG, 0.7 BPG
Durant - 18 shots per game, 28 PPG, .505 FG%, .364 3PT%, .870 FT%, 7.9 RPG, 4.2 APG, 2.9 TOPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.3 BPG


Pretty damn close overall, and I think everyone can agree that Durant has played against much better competition thus far. If LeBron is better (and again, that's debatable), it's not by much.

 

[Tornicade]

Ill put it in easier terms.
Westbrook neutralizes the advantages of having wade.
Durant neutralizes the advantages of James.
Perkins +Ibaka > Bosh + whoever
Harden will spend more time on the floor the sefolosha. This will mean D Wade will either have to guard Westbrook or harden. no easy days for him defensively.

OKC Lfinally learned the value of ball movement. Miami has a stingier defense than San Antonio but even if they take away the ball movement OKC has one of the few players in the game who can iso on lebron James.

OKC has the same potential for scoring runs that Miami has.

The only chance Miami has in this series is if Durant and Westbrook choke.

OKC in 5

 

[MoFlo]

OKC has a lot of weapons that Miami will have to figure out how to stop (and vice versa of course).

I'm guessing we'll see a lot of the Chalmers-Wade-LeBron-Battier-Bosh lineup in there to help prevent LeBron & Wade from exerting themselves defensively too much. It'll be interesting to see if Brooks uses Thabo a little more than usual to help defensively. If so, we can see OKC counter with Westbrook-Thabo-Harden-KD-Ibaka.

Even if they just have Wade watch Thabo, Harden/KD/Westbrook have the ability to light up LeBron/Battier/Chalmers.

Westbrook absolutely has to own Chalmers.

 

[Rich]

Why is anyone on this board, this forum of all forums, giving Durant a tie against #6. #6 is, by far, the best player in the league. That match-up is not remotely a tie.

You miss the Western Conference playoffs? Durant has been LeBron's equal.

 

[metalman213]

OKC is going to be so much harder to guard. Wade played literally 10 feet off of rondo, but he can't do that to westbrook. Harden will give them problems. So will durant.

Durant has been underrated defensively for some time now. He shut down kobe in the fourth. I think he can stop lebron a little bit (which he might have some help from lebron himself in that department). Besides, the individual defense was not really the problem for boston (even tho bass played too tight to lebron). The help was consistently late down the stretch and the James-Wade pnr was unstoppable. I think OKC is much better suited to defend them because they are long, fast, and they have serge iblocka. They can do a much better job of protecting the paint than boston. They are good at defending the pick and roll.

The thunder are favorites. They should be. Durant is clutch, and we will have to see how lebron comes out. I doubt durant plays like paul pierce did. If pierce plays at his normal level, then miami wouldnt have even reached the finals.

 

[imahustla]

Why is anyone on this board, this forum of all forums, giving Durant a tie against #6. #6 is, by far, the best player in the league. That match-up is not remotely a tie.

Gregg Doyel of CBS Sports had a great, great article last week about how you can never really appreciate Durant until you see him in person. He is easily the most gifted offensive player in the league. Some people want to give that edge to Melo, especially with what Melo can do on the block, but I don't think it's even close. Durant can get buckets almost whenever he wants and from wherever he wants on the floor, literally. He has become as good of a rebounder as LeBron and has elevated his defense significantly over the past year. Also, that Game 4 against the Spurs was his own version of 2007, The Palace, Game 5. Not the same type of game, but he definitely arrived with that performance of 16 straight with his team's backs against the wall.

Also, Durant has been virtually automatic in money time. Read that last sentence again: imagine if you could say the same for LeBron? Two game-winning shots vs. Dallas. A cold-blooded dagger shot in Artest's face against the Lakers that virtually ended the series. And of course performances like Games 4, 5, and 6 in a row against the Spurs which in my mind cemented his place as being LeBron's equal.

Again though, none of this will resonate with people like you because Doyel's point was that you have to see this dude live. The way he elevates his teammates' performance, the way they know that they can rely on him and he'll have their backs. I live in a city that is still mourning taking Oden over Durant and already fearing that they have passed up on another Jordan-type player. I know, easy...we have a long ways to go before putting KD in the same paragraph as Jordan, but just because KD isn't some sort of physical marvel to look at like LeBron doesn't mean he isn't every bit as good as a basketball player.

In fact, KD looks like God put him on this earth for the specific purpose of playing basketball. There is nothing else you can ask for in a basketball player.

 

[Adam]

he key for OKC is for scott brooks to keep westbrook within the team concept. If he can look to attack when matched up against chalmers and not settle for 20 footers then they will do well. OKC should be fine defensively, collision and perkins know how to spend fouls properly and ibaka is great at protecting the rim. I would love to see KD sit leborn on the block and just shoot over him, he has a 4 inch advantage in height let alone his crazy long arms.

Look for fishers experience to help keep them together if they get down big, he still has the balls to play down the stretch.

 

[col63onel]

Maybe I am letting my hate of #6 cloud the issue, but I just don't see the Heat making this any kind of series, barring an injury. I am not an xs and os guy when it comes to basketball. I have to rely on "intangibles" and "trends" to make sense of things. And they all seem to favor OKC.

- Thunder are fresher. #6 and Wade were playing grueling minutes since the start of the Pacers series. Durant has gone over 45 mins 2x in the entire playoffs. #6 averaged more than 45 vs. Boston. And both are going to have to play 45+ a night again to have any shot.

- This is despite OKC having a tougher road. Normally, if one team has a rest advantage, it's because their road was easier. So it becomes a battle tested vs more rested debate. But OKCs road was a lot harder. Are the Celtics better than any team OKC played? Certainly not the Spurs, and the Mavs and Lakers both are way better than Indy and the Knicks.

- And OKC has home court. Miami is more than capable of stealing one at OKC. But they also coughed up 1 to Indy, 1 to Boston, and nearly lost 2 more to Boston. Any confidence they will win all 3 in Miami?

 

[6.19.2016]

Maybe I am letting my hate of #6 cloud the issue, but I just don't see the Heat making this any kind of series, barring an injury. I am not an xs and os guy when it comes to basketball. I have to rely on "intangibles" and "trends" to make sense of things. And they all seem to favor OKC.

- Thunder are fresher. #6 and Wade were playing grueling minutes since the start of the Pacers series. Durant has gone over 45 mins 2x in the entire playoffs. #6 averaged more than 45 vs. Boston. And both are going to have to play 45+ a night again to have any shot.

- This is despite OKC having a tougher road. Normally, if one team has a rest advantage, it's because their road was easier. So it becomes a battle tested vs more rested debate. But OKCs road was a lot harder. Are the Celtics better than any team OKC played? Certainly not the Spurs, and the Mavs and Lakers both are way better than Indy and the Knicks.

- And OKC has home court. Miami is more than capable of stealing one at OKC. But they also coughed up 1 to Indy, 1 to Boston, and nearly lost 2 more to Boston. Any confidence they will win all 3 in Miami?

While I agree with you that SA >>> Boston,

NYK = 36-30
DAL = 36-30

IND = 42-24
LAL = 41-25

Before you say "but the West schedule was so much harder," Indiana was 13-5 against the West, while all three other teams were about .500 against their opposing conferences.

That said, OKC looked much better against comparable competition than MIA did.

 

[MDLT]

The Thunder are pretty clearly better on paper -- which is kind of crazy given that the Heat have James, Wade, and Bosh. They seem to have the mismatch advantage everywhere, especially with Westbrook and Harden. The only question mark is the Thunder's inexperience -- can they execute and not get rattled when the pressure is on?

Agree that Westbrook must destroy Chalmers or whoever else they throw on him.

Also, Wade doesn't look to be the same player, and he and James have been logging major minutes these playoffs. The Heat either have no concept of resting their stars, or simply cannot afford to do so.

I'll say Thunder in 6. Major pressure on James to win it here. A loss means they may not only have missed a window, but that another superstar would be essentially overtaking the league at the age of 23.

 

[Steve_424]

Predictions:

Game 1: The Thunder come out tentative, giving Miami the lead at halftime. However, OKC comes out of the locker room refocused and their depth takes over, leading to a 10 point victory. OKC goes up 1-0

Game 2: This one is an all-out duel. The entire game is back-and-forth, but James Harden becomes the X-factor down the stretch and OKC wins by 6. OKC goes up 2-0.

Game 3: With questions surrounding LeBron's quest for a title, James comes out as "Angry LeBron" and has a huge game. The Heat's role players, who play much better at home, step up in a supporting role. It's a close one, but the Heat pull away in the end and win by 8. OKC up 2-1

Game 4: Questions surround LeBron (as always) and if he can repeat his Game 3 performance. He plays well, but it's not enough as Durant goes off and Westbrook plays a huge game...the Thunder steal one in Miami by 3. OKC up 3-1

Game 5: With the potential to close out the Heat, the Thunder stumble a bit and play tight. Dwyane Wade steps up with a big game and the Heat win by 10. OKC up 3-2.

Game 6: With an incredible Thunder crowd behind them, Game 6 looks a lot like Game 1. The Heat take the early lead, but OKC comes storming back. The game is close throughout, but OKC pulls away at the end when LeBron and Wade start taking "Hero ball" shots. OKC wins the series 4-2.

Finals MVP: Kevin Durant

LeBron, learning from past PR mistakes, handles the defeat with grace. The media (especially ESPN), pummel us with stories about how great he is, but that he can't do it alone (sound familiar?). Erik Spolestra keeps his job (unless Phil Jackson wants it) and the Heat spend all offseason trying to convince Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, and Ray Allen to come to South Beach. Without the money to sway any of them to come, they end up with Chauncey Billups.