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2012 Presidential Election

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Who Will Win the 2012 Presidential Election?

  • Barack Obama

    Votes: 70 60.9%
  • Mitt Romney

    Votes: 42 36.5%
  • Electoral College Tie

    Votes: 3 2.6%

  • Total voters
    115
  • Poll closed .
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Texas Gov. Perry jumps into 2012 Republican race

By JIM DAVENPORT and BETH FOUHY Associated Press August 13, 2011 11:19AM


COLUMBIA, S.C. — Texas Gov. Rick Perry joined the 2012 GOP race for president Saturday with an announcement sure to reverberate halfway across the country as his rivals competed in Iowa for the support of party activists.

“I full well believe I’m going to win,” Perry told South Carolina voters on a conference call about an hour before he planned to kick off the campaign with a speech in Charleston.

In a posting on his new campaign website explaining why he wanted to take on President Barack Obama, Perry contended that “America’s place in the world is in peril, not only because of disastrous economic policies, but from the incoherent muddle known as our foreign policy.”

Americans, he said, “will not sit back and accept our current misery.” He said “a great country requires a better direction” and “a renewed nation requires a new president.”

He said people object to an administration “that sees its role as spending our children’s inheritance on failed economic theories that have given us record debt and left far too many unemployed, threatening not only our economy, but our security. Our reliance on foreign creditors and sources of energy not only compromises our national sovereignty, but jeopardizes our national future.”

His campaign intends to take back the country “from the grips of central planners who would control our health care, spend our treasure and micromanage our businesses.”

Perry’s speech was set for 1 p.m. EDT at a conservative conference, only a few hours before the release of results from the straw poll in Iowa, the nation’s first caucus state. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota are hoping for a boost.

“I have never seen this landslide of emotion for a candidacy. I cannot literally keep up with the emails and messages coming into my cellphone,” said Katon Dawson, a former GOP chairman in South Carolina who’s a Perry supporter.

“There is an excitement for Gov. Perry that there just isn’t around the other candidates.”

Perry, 61, was to visit New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary state, later Saturday before stepping onto Iowa soil Sunday.

The leading GOP candidate so far has been Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor making his second run for the nomination. But no one in the field has managed to raise the kind of enthusiasm among conservatives that seems to surround Perry.

Among the others in the race are former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and businessman Herman Cain.

Through three terms as governor, Perry has overseen significant job growth in his state while working to keep taxes low. He was an early backer of the tea party movement. He enjoys the support of social conservatives because of his opposition to abortion and gay rights. He is also an evangelical Christian who organized a well-attended prayer rally in Houston last week.

Perry is a prodigious fundraiser who has begun laying the groundwork for a national finance network that supporters say would rival President Barack Obama’s. Obama is expected to exceed his record $750 million haul from 2008.

But some Republicans worry that Perry’s hard-core conservatism and Texas style may not play well in a 50-state contest, particularly so soon after another Texas governor, George W. Bush, served in the White House.

Bush had record low approval ratings when he left office in 2009.

Perry’s visit to New Hampshire was to be his first of the year, on the heels of a visit by some state activists to Texas to encourage him to run.

Romney has dominated early polling in New Hampshire, where he has a summer home and has devoted much of his campaigning so far.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

I'd put my money on Perry to win the nomination. But I also think Perry sounds like he's doing an impression of Will Ferrell doing an impression of W. Bush. I'm interested to see how that would play in a general election.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

I like Perry to win the nomination, too. But problem for him is that while he's always been successful, he's only done in it a red state. He'll have to move way to the middle if he wins the GOP nomination, but in order to so, he'll have to go FAR to the right to beat out someone like Bachmann.

That said, he seems to be Obama's biggest threat at this point (Romney would be too, but the GOP base won't seriously consider a Mormon when it comes down to it). Plus, liberals could run an independent candidate, a la the Ross Perot effect for George H. W. Bush. Scary thought of the day - Bachmann wins GOP base, 3rd party ruins Obama's re-election chances. Yikes.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Is Romney not running?
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

If Bachmann were to win the presidency, I'd be moving across lake erie real fast...
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Bachmann edging out Ron Paul. Bleh, I think I'd rather just vote Obama to another term.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Yeah, if Bachmann wins the nomination, I'll likely vote Libertarian.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

God I hope Perry wins the nomination! How great would that be for progressives.

Perry would be much easier to beat because he's less of a threat in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. As far as I can predict (and it's very early yet) of the battleground states, in a Obama v. Perry matchup, Perry would have an extremely difficult time getting 270 electoral votes. Basically, he'd need to win Pennsylvania or, both Ohio and Iowa (lol). That's assuming he carries the entire South (possible, but not likely) and Colorado (improbable).

Whereas Romney has a much easier path to the White House solely because he has a greater appeal in the Midwest, and Colorado. It is entirely possible that Romney wins Ohio, in which case Obama would have hoped to have held Iowa (almost a certainty) or Virginia (50-50 if economy stays as it is). A 269 split likely results in a Republican favored tie-break.

If Republicans are smart, and primary voting Republicans rarely are, they'd pick Romney. If Perry pulls this out; I can see him carrying the entire South (again, it's possible), and much of the West, but having next to no chance at getting 270 electoral votes.

Primary voters need to understand that Obama has a loyal following that will come out and vote on election day. This guy isn't pre-2000 Al Gore; this guy is as Teflon coated as Bill Clinton in a world with a shrinking GOP tent. If the GOP moves to the right with Perry, they'll have handed Obama a second term.

p.s.
Looking at Obama's electoral path to victory, his entrenched base of states, if we exclude the ENTIRE South and Ohio, Obama still gets to 281 electoral votes (minus maybe one or two in Maine and Nebraska if the economy gets worse). It really all boils down to this: whatever Republican runs, he must change the rules of the game as they are now. He's got to win at least one state in the Northeast.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

gourimoko....very well said.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Why can't Perry win Ohio or PA? Let's not forget that those are swing states and the economy is the worst since the Great Depression.

I'm not so sure about Obamacons coming out this year, either - the GOP base is far more fired up. Not saying your wrong, gourimoko, but it remains to be seen.

But related, I think the problem with Romney is his nomination would not inspire many right-wing GOPers. Romney is a middle of the road, who has been pretending to be something else. I think Perry is a better all-around politician than Romney (and I mean that in the most cynical way). The GOP needs to keep the fire going, and Perry could be the guy to do that.

One more thing: reading around, it seems this could end up being a culture war on steroids. Who knows how that would play out across the country.
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

I see no way Romney doesn't win the nomination. People talk about the right wing base being fired up but I think people forget the fact that most people will literally just vote for the percieved front runner with name recognition and thats Romney. Coincidentally, I think this is still best for the GOP (beter chance at beating Obama) and the country really if the candidate beats Obama (Perry, bachmann, etc are nuts/douchebags).
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Yeah, if Bachmann wins the nomination, I'll likely vote Libertarian.

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Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

I just don't think there is the big contrast between Obama and Romney. I don't think the GOP can show the differences in a great way if Romney is indeed the nominee. Perry on the other hand seems different to me. I think there would be great contrast between the two. I believe both Romney and Perry can clearly lay out a great campaign and both are good politicians, (if there is such a thing), but I believe Perry would have an easier time against Obama than Romney would.

Then again, what we all think right now might be very different in one year and 3 months. Hell, for all we know it could be Palin or Bachman against Obama. That would be fun actually. lol
 
Re: Gov. Rick Perry: The Candidate Obama Would Fear the Most

Dont forget about the 400 lb elephant in the room - Chris Christie.

For the GOP to take back the White House, the VP choice is going to be very critical. Some combination of Christie, Perry, and Romney would have a shot.
 

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