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2014-15 Off-Season Thread (Moss Acquired - Page 16)

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I think Bourn is still the more productive player, even with the loss in speed.

Though I think he should be hitting 9th instead of leadoff. If he can provide solid outfield defense, some speed and on-base ability, he's the more productive player than a busted Swisher who is relegated to DH or a poor defensive player.

I would agree, but Bourn has not shown the ability to get on base since he's been here, is only a SB threat because of his reputation, and hasn't had the same success stealing bases when he does attempt to.

No denying Bourn provides more flexibility, but he's provided just as little as Swish since they've come here. And if Swish can train in the off-season for RF again, as we saw in the PD a while back, it makes it a no contest, IMO.

Not to mention, Swish provides a boost to the clubhouse, ALA Giambi/Tito, that the players feed off of. It may not be much, but when neither player is productive, it's something to consider when comparing the two.

Don't get me wrong, neither has provided much of anything & I wish we could deal both.
 
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I agree that I hate Bourn leading off. He should be batting ninth. I'd have a lot of interest in Aoki this offseason with the idea he could lead off. With that said, I think Tito sticks with Bourn leading off.
 
I agree that I hate Bourn leading off. He should be batting ninth. I'd have a lot of interest in Aoki this offseason with the idea he could lead off. With that said, I think Tito sticks with Bourn leading off.

That's partly why I'd rather get rid of Bourn rather than Swisher, if I had to choose. I just don't see Tito pulling Bourn out of that leadoff spot.
 
Would KC let Aoki walk? Depending on how far they go in the playoffs I can't see them letting him walk unless someone comes in and throws a ton of money at him.
 
Would KC let Aoki walk? Depending on how far they go in the playoffs I can't see them letting him walk unless someone comes in and throws a ton of money at him.

They'll have a decision to make on Butler,
Would KC let Aoki walk? Depending on how far they go in the playoffs I can't see them letting him walk unless someone comes in and throws a ton of money at him.

It's hard to say. They could roll with Gordon-Dyson-Cain and let Aoki walk if he gets too pricey.
 
Any thoughts on Scott Van Slyke of the Dodgers?
 
KC drops a 3 spot on the O's in the 10th.........KC team of destiny?..............
 
Ned Yost is 5-0 in the playoffs.

Further proving my point that players win games.

Guy hits on 22 and draws a -1
 
Chip Hale named D-Backs manager.

Sandy had been a finalist.
 
Chip Hale named D-Backs manager.

Sandy had been a finalist.

I feel torn on Sandy. On one hand, I want him in an Indians uniform. On the other hand, I want him to be successful. Realistically he'll get a managerial job at some point - I just hope it's not for a division rival or someone else I hate.
 
A few notes via MLBTR:
  • Strauss figures the Cardinals are likely to trade an outfielder this offseason, with Matt Holliday locked into the left field spot and Taveras, Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos, Randal Grichuk and prospect Stephen Piscotty all in the mix for the other two outfield spots.
  • A major league source tells Cafardo that Victor Martinez‘s preference is to stay with the Tigers and, therefore, Detroit will get the first crack at him. The interest is mutual and the Tigers would like to get something done sooner rather than later.

I think most of us realize by now that Victor isn't coming here, but I'm still holding out hope he leaves Detroit.

The Cardinals situation is one to follow as we have a history of dealing with them.
 
From Lastoria:

Is offense a significant need?
After a frustrating showing this season by the offense, the focus this offseason by a great many fans will be to upgrade the lineup to add more offense. I actually agree that the Indians should look to add a big bat if possible, though understand the realities of such a move happening are remote. Knowing that, I also understand that the lineup as a whole was not as bad as it appeared to be this past season.

Let me explain.

If you are comparing the Indians lineup to those big Indians lineups of the 90s and early 00s then, yes, they were not very good. But so is the case for just about every team when looking at what they produced offensively this season compared to the numbers that teams put up offensively 5-10 years ago.

The game has changed since steroids and PEDs have been (mostly) removed from the game. Look at the Major League average offensive numbers for a team 10 years ago in 2004 versus this past season:

2004: .266 AVG, .335 OBP, .428 SLG, .763 OPS, 779 R, 182 HR, 1061 K
2014: .251 AVG, .314 OBP, .386 SLG, .700 OPS, 659 R, 140 HR, 1248 K

Wow, look at those numbers. Those are average numbers for a team across the league. That’s a pretty large accumulation of numbers to pull together, yet a 15 point drop in league average for batting average, 21 point drop in on-base percentage, 42 point drop in slugging percentage, and a 63 point drop in OPS. All of that has resulted in an average of 120 runs less scored in a season by teams. That amounts to about 0.75 runs a game, which significant.

Now, obviously the pitching today arguably is better. Also, teams have more data to use to play the defense to the batter’s tendencies with shifts and different defensive alignments not commonly used 10 years ago. But pitchers are also no longer as afraid to pitch inside nor are beat as much on well-located pitches away as they used to be because of the removal of performance enhancement substances from the game.

As another comparison, the top scoring team in baseball this season was the Angels who scored 773 runs. That total was below the Major League average in 2004 and would have been the 18th highest total in the league that year.

So there is no question that offense is down around baseball. It also means we need to be a little more open-minded when evaluating the Indians struggles offensively this past season since a lot of their issues are shared league-wide.

Comparing the Indians to their peers from this season and not to what the league was like 10 years ago, you see that they ranked 11th in runs (669), 13th in batting average (.253), 11th in on-base percentage (.317), .389 in slugging percentage (.389), 12th in OPS (.706) and 14th in home runs (142). They were ranked in the upper half in the league in all important offensive categories and were above the league average in all of those stats as well.

Situation-wise, the Indians ranked 10th batting with runners in scoring position (.258) and 9th in OPS with runners in scoring position (.736). They were also 8th for least amount of strikeouts with runners in scoring position (279). The league average for hitting and OPS with runners in scoring position was .253/.717 and the league average for strikeouts hitting with runners in scoring position was 307.

So was the Indians offense really that bad? Did it really perform that poorly in big situations? And, ultimately, is it really that much of a priority to address this offseason?

The Indians are right in that a return to form for the likes of Nick Swisher, Jason Kipnis and Michael Bourn would have the greatest impact to their lineup next season. Just getting all three to play to their career averages would be a notable boost.

The fans are also right in that the Indians need to add some more help to the lineup in order to be a better and more consistent offensive unit.

I think the answer is somewhere in between what the Indians and fans are expecting for next season.

The game is much less about waiting for the three-run homer or big offensive explosions from everyone in the lineup like it was in the mid-90s to mid-00s. It is now more about pitching, defense, baserunning and timely hitting.

The Kansas City Royals are putting on full display how important the running game is once again in baseball. Why good defense is so vital and how good pitching both starting and in the bullpen makes you competitive in every game and can really shorten a game.

This is a blueprint I expect teams to start adopting more and more over the coming years. Big bats cost a ton in free agency and on the trade market, but plus defensive players who can run and handle the bat are much more affordable. If such a player complements a team well, then they can have almost as much impact as a big bopper in the middle of the lineup who can’t run or is a below average defender.

Bottom line, our viewpoint on offense in baseball is largely skewed to what we remember from the mid-90s to mid-00s. The further we get away from that the better we will be able to more accurately evaluate just what is a good or bad showing offensively. In a lot of ways, the way baseball is played right now and the offensive numbers that result reminds a lot of the way baseball was in the 80s to early 90s when I was in my infancy following the game.

So while we wish the Indians would improve the offense, be sure to make note that the offense was really not the biggest issue of the team this past season. What truly cost them was a defense which was one of the worst in the league, a starting staff which was largely inconsistent in the first half of the season and a bullpen which blew too many late game leads. Of course, the offense surely contributed to the problems of the team as the up and down nature in performance for so many players hurt. That said, it can be argued that adding another late inning pen arm or a top flight defensive third baseman would improve the team just as much as a big bat would.

This is why the Indians may not be looking for as many big changes to the lineup as many hope. In the end, it may just end up where they make a few key role player pickups that they believe balance the lineup better to face left-handed pitching, gives them options to improve the defense, and just provides them more flexibility overall.

Just some food for thought as the Hot Stove season gets set to start in a few weeks.

Looming payroll concerns
The Indians have approximately $70-72 million committed in payroll the players under contract for next season. That approximate figure includes the projected arbitration and pre-arbitration figures for the players on the roster for next year.

That doesn’t leave much room for the Indians to spend as even if they bump up to a $90 million payroll it leaves them a little under $20 million to spend. That money does not go very far when you consider it would probably have to be broken up into two or three pieces, maybe even more depending on what they do this offseason.

But even if the Indians do have $20 million to spend this offseason, they really can’t afford very many – if any – multi-year deals. They may be more in line with offering one year deals simply because their payroll situation in 2016 does not look very good considering no one is set to come off the books after next season except for club options that could be declined for David Murphy ($7 million) and Ryan Raburn ($3 million).

But going into 2016 the Indians have $52.25 million tied up into six players. Michael Bourn ($14M) and Nick Swisher ($15M) will be in the last year of their deals, while Michael Brantley ($6.5M), Yan Gomes ($2.5M), Jason Kipnis ($6M), and Carlos Santana ($8.25M) all will see moderate bumps in pay. In addition to that Corey Kluber, Cody Allen and Zach McAllister will hit arbitration for the first time, and they will also have several second and third year arbitration eligible players with Carlos Carrasco, Bryan Shaw, Marc Rzepczynski, Lonnie Chisenhall and potentially others.

That is a roster that going into 2016 could have as much as $75-$85 million or more tied up into just 13 players. Even if the Indians were to fill out the last 12 spots on the roster with league minimum players ($6M total), that’s roughly $80-90 million in committed payroll for 2016 if all of those players are with the team at the start of the 2016 season.

This is why it makes it very unlikely the Indians sign a player to a big multi-year contract this offseason, or that they even trade for a player who is signed to contract beyond the 2015 season. There just does not appear to be any room to add much more payroll since it is already tapped out. Fans can complain about that all they want, but league bottom revenues from attendance, TV, and other revenue streams ultimately are what limits ownership’s ability to spend. Outside of the pizza guy in Detroit, owners spend what their team takes in with revenues - not from their own pockets.

I hate to put a damper on the prospects of this offseason, but I always try to be a straight shooter and be realistic with what the expectations of this team should be on and off the field. As far as this offseason goes, the Indians are really going to have to be creative in order to maintain any kind of payroll flexibility going forward. I do think they have a trick or two up their sleeve and potentially a surprise big trade could surface, but I would not expect any significant deal in free agency other than a one year deal for a player looking to re-establish their market value so they can cash in after the 2015 season.

Playoff envy
Watching the MLB playoffs has certainly left me with a ton of envy for the fanbases that still have teams playing. There is nothing quite like the MLB postseason with the way it can twist a stomach into a pretzel. Not just for a few moments, but for over three hours from the first pitch of the game to the final out. There are so many crucial moments that as a fan of a team playing in a postseason game it leaves you on the edge of your seat the entire game.

Indians fans really have not had a chance to experience the excitement and exhaustion that comes from a playoff series in some time. The last time was in 2007, which was a lot of fun, but before that you have to go back to the late 90s when the Indians were going deep into the playoffs in 1995, 1997 and 1998 reaching the ALCS or World Series and playing in several nail biters along the way (I swear 1997 alone took five years off my life).

What we also see if the Indians are probably not that far away from winning a World Series. The biggest obstacle they have at the moment is just getting to the postseason. The grind of a 162-game season is tough for any team to survive and ultimately tests the depth and health of a team to its limits. I have always said you just have to get to the postseason and then let the chips fall as they may.

That is what is happening with the Royals, Orioles, Giants and Cardinals. When you compare these teams to the Indians, do you really see that significant of a difference in the makeup of the teams? The Indians are actually quite comparable, and it makes you wonder had they gotten into the playoffs this year what they could have done with the pitching they have. Or, had they won their wildcard game against Tampa last season what they might have done the rest of the playoffs.

The Indians surely have their warts, but so do each of the remaining teams in the playoffs. All of them have their issues offensively, though the Orioles were pretty strong in that department this season. What separates these teams is the defense, an area the Indians obviously lacked this season and might be the gap they look to bridge this offseason to bring them on par with these teams. Run prevention has become just as important as scoring runs.

You wonder what might happen next season if the Indians are able to get consistency from their promising starting rotation, they get a bounce back year or two from Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher, they find another arm to plug into the backend of their pen and most of all find a lynch pin to bring the defense together.

The Indians really are not that far off. They will need a little luck and health along the way, as does every team, but they will also need to make some shrewd moves this offseason to improve the team on a limited budget. They mapped out their offseason last week during their organizational meetings in Arizona, now we will see what rabbit they are able to pull out of their hat to make next season a magical one for them.

And in the process make everyone else envious of the Indians and their postseason push toward hopefully winning a World Series.



I honestly think the Indians' biggest issue this year was the lack of ML-ready depth. At the beginning of the year Bourn went down and Morgan stepped in nicely, but that was a rare case. I'm not expecting Victor Martinez or Nelson Cruz, but I do hope they nab some viable replacements for Swisher and Bourn, if/when they go down.
 
I feel torn on Sandy. On one hand, I want him in an Indians uniform. On the other hand, I want him to be successful. Realistically he'll get a managerial job at some point - I just hope it's not for a division rival or someone else I hate.

Sandy is getting to the "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" point. I would hate to see him leave, but really am pulling for the guy.
 
Would love for Sandy to stick around long enough to take over for Tito whenever he decides to hang it up or move to the front office/broadcasting.
 
Andrew Friedman leaving the Rays to be VP of Baseball Ops with the Dodgers.

He may hire a GM to work under him as well.

Matt Silverman taking over Rays.
 

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