From Grantland:
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MLB
[h=1]MLB Over/Under Jamboree[/h]
Good news for the Mets? Bad news for the Yankees? The chance to win some Gummi Bears? It must be time for the annual MLB Over/Under report.
BY JONAH KERI ON MARCH 7, 2014
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When cranking out baseball betting odds, Vegas and online sportsbooks have always used a combination of rigorous data analysis and information on individuals’ betting habits to ensure that picking winners is a challenge. We laypeople like to think we’re brilliant when we cross-reference the latest PECOTA, ZiPS, and Steamer projections against the prevailing odds. In reality, however, the books are fully aware of every projection system that exists, and probably have their own forecasters pumping out numbers most of us never get to see.
The sharps have always been smart. But it sure as hell seems like they’re getting smarter.
Welcome to Grantland’s 2014 MLB Over/Under Jamboree. Every year, I scrutinize the projected win totals for all 30 major league teams, then highlight the handful of clubs I think are most likely to finish over or under those figures. It’s one of my favorite annualtraditions, but it’s also one that’s grown tougher each year. The oddsmakers aren’t simply getting better at putting out on-point numbers year to year; they’re getting better week to week, and with the lines constantly changing, it becomes increasingly difficult to know when to act. Look at the odds that Reno’s Atlantis Casino posted just three weeks ago, and then compare them to what’s out there today. This is no picnic.
Undaunted, we press on. It’s not all bad: The odds help establish a framework under which we can begin evaluating all 30 teams and figuring out how they might fare in the season ahead. Moreover, by sniffing out the teams that might go over or under the betting lines, we can gain insight into certain competitive advantages and disadvantages that broad-stroke predictions might not reveal. And hey, if we can all make a few Gummi Bears in the process, no harm there.
Since every sportsbook and online betting site offers slightly different over/under numbers and odds, and since transparency is one of the goals here, I’m settling on Sportsbook.ag as my baseline. That’s by no means an endorsement, and if you can find better odds elsewhere, you should take them.
Here are the MLB wagers I like most for 2014:
[h=2]Cleveland Indians: OVER 80.5 wins[/h]
That number looks … off, doesn’t it? The Indians surged to 92 wins last year behind one of the most powerful offenses in the league and a young, effective starting rotation. Very little has changed for the worse. While losing Ubaldo Jimenez’s impressive 2013 numbers will hurt, getting a full season from Official 2013 Grantland Crush Danny Salazar and a breakout campaign from fellow right-handed starter Corey Kluber could mitigate that loss. With none of Cleveland’s five projected starters older than 28, there’s upside across the board here.
If you’re looking for an X factor, though, consider something for which the typical projection systems and even Vegas likely won’t properly account: This season, Carlos Santana will no longer be Cleveland’s primary catcher. Whether you’re examining multiyearor single-year numbers, Santana consistently grades out as one of the worst pitch framers in the game. And while analysts are just beginning to quantify the effects of pitch blocking and other defensive skills for catchers, the industry consensus has long been that Santana is a designated hitter who happens to wear a mask. Assuming the Tribe do the right thing by making Santana the everyday DH while handing primary backstop duties to Yan Gomes, who was one of the best receivers in the league last year according to the above metrics, it wouldn’t be a stretch to project something like a two- or three-win improvement based on that move alone. And that might even be understating it. If Gomes’s defensive skills are allowed to flourish over 120-plus starts, it could help push Cleveland’s young staff to elite status this season.
Combine all that with a balanced lineup that will get even better when top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor reaches the big leagues — and frees up the Indians to consider trading Asdrubal Cabrera to address whatever weaknesses might arise — and it’s really tough to imagine the Indians finishing below .500 … which is what would have to happen to lose this bet. This is my highest-confidence wager for 2014.
