2015 Free Agency (Cavs Centric)

[gourimoko]

You don't see how Crawford being given a free license to jack up shots as the 1st option on his teams isn't comparable to a guy who's at best been the 2nd/3rd option behind a prolific scorer like Carmelo? For his career, Crawford averages at least 18 shots a game, Smith closer to 15.

Why are you comparing career averages? This has no value to a discussion regarding a potential trade happening today.

Analytically, the data from these players rookie years holds almost basis to be included in this discussion. Why is it relevant? Of course, it isn't. So discard it and focus on the more recent seasons.

I've already stated that I've used a 2-year window (to JR's benefit), and I've already adjusted for minutes and pace.

You are ignoring the fact that Crawford is tasked with isolating and scoring, as the primary option off the bench. Smith had this role as well, no doubt, but does no longer. We use him as a spot up shooter 65% of the time.

This is nothing like Crawford's role on the Clippers -- this is why the two players' roles do not conflict with one another, but in fact, why both would work well in the same back court.

As for 2/3s of JR's shots being behind the arc, I'm calling bullshit becase they have similar career averages. 5.1 attempted for Crawford/5.2 for Smith.

"Calling bullshit?" Dude just look it up, c'mon..

JR Smith in Cleveland has a 3PAr of .667. 2 divided by 3 = .667....

2-year avg: Smith = .612
2-year avg: Crawford = .438

The reason they have similar career numbers is because Smith came into the league a below average three point shooter his rookie year (likely on a slump). He then, years later, went through a 5-year period of reduced three point shooting, opting instead for midrange jumpers.

This is case in point why career averages are not useful for this comparison.

Just because Blatt doesn't use JR to run the point doesn't mean that he can't.

I never said he couldn't.

I said he doesn't.

And I don't think Blatt would put Crawford to running the point either. He's not exactly the most careful with the ball as evidenced by him not even able to average 2 assists per turnover.

You could say the same about LeBron James.

Crawford's job off the bench in Cleveland would be to isolate and score, same as it is in Los Angeles.

Crawfords TS% gets a huge bump because of his FTs where he averages a higher percentage and almost 4 attempts more a game.

Yes, because his game is nothing like JR Smith's, that's my point.

And it seems that you are ignoring the fact that getting to the line 4 more times per game is a valuable trait?

So again, I don't see a giant difference between the 2.

Okay... But do you see why I do?

Smith already fills the role that Crawford has traditionally played,

No he doesn't. Not remotely. Unless by role you mean "bench scoring" and even then, we could certainly use more of that and these two do not score in similar or conflicting manners. The two should make each other's jobs easier not harder.

and Crawfords added extras from recent seasons aren't enough reason to permanently move him to the point.

I'm not sure what you're driving at here; I'm not looking at this from a traditional positional point of view as I think that rationale is outmoded.

 

[Lee]

Why?

Mainly cap room and very limiting new cba laws. We will be over the Apron so no sign and trades allowed.

Further we were the best team after the trades by far and to break that up before we get healthy and add AV back in the mix might be foolish.

 

[Man Called X]

Why are you comparing career averages? This has no value to a discussion regarding a potential trade happening today.

Analytically, the data from these players rookie years holds almost basis to be included in this discussion. Why is it relevant? Of course, it isn't. So discard it and focus on the more recent seasons.

I've already stated that I've used a 2-year window (to JR's benefit), and I've already adjusted for minutes and pace.

You are ignoring the fact that Crawford is tasked with isolating and scoring, as the primary option off the bench. Smith had this role as well, no doubt, but does no longer. We use him as a spot up shooter 65% of the time.

This is nothing like Crawford's role on the Clippers -- this is why the two players' roles do not conflict with one another, but in fact, why both would work well in the same back court.



"Calling bullshit?" Dude just look it up, c'mon..

JR Smith in Cleveland has a 3PAr of .667. 2 divided by 3 = .667....

2-year avg: Smith = .612
2-year avg: Crawford = .438

The reason they have similar career numbers is because Smith came into the league a below average three point shooter his rookie year (likely on a slump). He then, years later, went through a 5-year period of reduced three point shooting, opting instead for midrange jumpers.

This is case in point why career averages are not useful for this comparison.



I never said he couldn't.

I said he doesn't.



You could say the same about LeBron James.

Crawford's job off the bench in Cleveland would be to isolate and score, same as it is in Los Angeles.



Yes, because his game is nothing like JR Smith's, that's my point.

And it seems that you are ignoring the fact that getting to the line 4 more times per game is a valuable trait?



Okay... But do you see why I do?



No he doesn't. Not remotely. Unless by role you mean "bench scoring" and even then, we could certainly use more of that and these two do not score in similar or conflicting manners. The two should make each other's jobs easier not harder.



I'm not sure what you're driving at here; I'm not looking at this from a traditional positional point of view as I think that rationale is outmoded.

I see what you're thinking, I just don't agree with it.

It's pretty obvious the Cavs offense is always going to run through LBJ or Kyrie with a few spot minutes available for a 2nd PG. So what I see is Crawford getting maybe 8 minutes as a PG and then looking for another 20 minutes as a scoring wing.

So is 8 minutes of Crawford as PG really worth losing 20 minutes on the wing from Smith or Shump? I personally don't think so.

 

[gourimoko]

Mainly cap room and very limiting new cba laws. We will be over the Apron so no sign and trades allowed.

Lee, I went into this a few times in other threads but let me take a moment to say it again. If the Cavaliers are willing to essentially dump Varejao and trade Thompson, plus some other moves, it can be done.

It is anything but easy, and it is anything but likely, but the point is that it isn't impossible for the Cavs to do sign-and-trades up to and including for a max contract.

I just want to keep reminding folks that we should not box ourselves into this notion that we must keep all of Varejao, Thompson, Shump, and Mozgov. We don't.

We can choose to, but it isn't required. Not for success, nor for LeBron James to re-sign with the Cavaliers.

Further we were the best team after the trades by far and to break that up before we get healthy and add AV back in the mix might be foolish.

I agree with this 100%, just as I told @MirORich . You guys might be entirely right on this, and I could be entirely wrong. That is a distinct possibility.

 

[gourimoko]

I see what you're thinking, I just don't agree with it.

It's pretty obvious the Cavs offense is always going to run through LBJ or Kyrie with a few spot minutes available for a 2nd PG. So what I see is Crawford getting maybe 8 minutes as a PG and then looking for another 20 minutes as a scoring wing.

So is 8 minutes of Crawford as PG really worth losing 20 minutes on the wing from Smith or Shump? I personally don't think so.

Crawford wouldn't replace Smith, and Shump will likely be playing starter minutes next season for defensive purposes (you don't need Smith next to Love).

Crawford would play backup guard, Smith backup wing; they do not take from one another's minutes, especially considering Blatt has no problem rolling out three guard rotations with Smith at SF.

 

[Man Called X]

Crawford wouldn't replace Smith, and Shump will likely be playing starter minutes next season for defensive purposes (you don't need Smith next to Love).

Crawford would play backup guard, Smith backup wing; they do not take from one another's minutes, especially considering Blatt has no problem rolling out three guard rotations with Smith at SF.

Figure 96 minutes on the wing between SG/SF. Already have a rotation of 3 players that should see 30 minutes a game playing that position.

Realistically, Crawford would be taking Delly's spot in the rotation, and there's no way he's going to be happy with 12 minutes a night.

*Now if LBJ moves to the 4 for 20 minutes a game, it would open up more room for Crawford in the rotation.

 

[gourimoko]

Figure 96 minutes on the wing between SG/SF. Already have a rotation of 3 players that should see 30 minutes a game playing that position.

Realistically, Crawford would be taking Delly's spot in the rotation, and there's no way he's going to be happy with 12 minutes a night.

*Now if LBJ moves to the 4 for 20 minutes a game, it would open up more room for Crawford in the rotation.

Kyrie 36 / Crawford 12
Shump 25 / Crawford 13 / Smith 10
James 30 / Smith 18
Love 32 / James 4 / Jones 12
...

Kyrie 36 mpg
Crawford 25 mpg
Shump 25 mpg
Smith 28 mpg

You can adjust by a few minutes as needed and play the hot hand obviously. But there are enough minutes to go around.

 

[Man Called X]

Kyrie 36 / Crawford 12
Shump 25 / Crawford 13 / Smith 10
James 30 / Smith 18
Love 32 / James 4 / Jones 12
...

Kyrie 36 mpg
Crawford 25 mpg
Shump 25 mpg
Smith 28 mpg

You can adjust by a few minutes as needed and play the hot hand obviously. But there are enough minutes to go around.

There's no way that Shump, Craword, and Smith would all be happy playing 25-30 minutes a game.

And honestly after Delly's playoff run, I'm not necessarily certain he needs to be upgraded.

 

[gourimoko]

There's no way that Shump, Craword, and Smith would all be happy playing 25-30 minutes a game.

I'm not sure why you're saying this..

Crawford just turned 35 years old, Smith averaged 25 mpg during his best years in the league and he also is 30 years old. Shumpert might want more minutes, but minutes are earned - to that end, he only averaged 25 minutes this season.

I really don't see any of those players have a problem with ~25 mpg on average over a season.

And honestly after Delly's playoff run, I'm not necessarily certain he needs to be upgraded.

...I'm not saying remove him from the roster, but even if you wanted to give Delly 8-10 minutes a game, you could certainly find it. His minutes would simply be more in flux than they are today.

I also think it's a bit shortsighted to look at the playoffs while ignoring the bulk of the regular season where a backup point guard was definitely an apparent need.

 

[Man Called X]

I'm not sure why you're saying this..

Crawford just turned 35 years old, Smith averaged 25 mpg during his best years in the league and he also is 30 years old. Shumpert might want more minutes, but minutes are earned - to that end, he only averaged 25 minutes this season.

I really don't see any of those players have a problem with ~25 mpg on average over a season.



...I'm not saying remove him from the roster, but even if you wanted to give Delly 8-10 minutes a game, you could certainly find it. His minutes would simply be more in flux than they are today.

I also think it's a bit shortsighted to look at the playoffs while ignoring the bulk of the regular season where a backup point guard was definitely an apparent need.

I'm also realizing that Delly didn't look the same after his knee injury and is just now looking like the Delly we saw last year and before his injury this year.

Crawford shit the bed this playoff series. Don't need another 35+ year old veteran taking minutes, had 3 of them this season that didn't do shit.

 

[gourimoko]

I'm also realizing that Delly didn't look the same after his knee injury and is just now looking like the Delly we saw last year and before his injury this year.

And that's fine and dandy, and Delly can earn his minutes during the regular season.

Crawford shit the bed this playoff series.

Weird that you say you realize Delly didn't look the same after his injury but you don't say the same about Crawford's (which just happened recently)?

Don't need another 35+ year old veteran taking minutes, had 3 of them this season that didn't do shit.

Nope, we need bench scoring.. Crawford provides that.

Don't know why you'd compare Jamal Crawford to Mike Miller, Haywood, or Marion though, but okay.

 

[Lee]

Lee, I went into this a few times in other threads but let me take a moment to say it again. If the Cavaliers are willing to essentially dump Varejao and trade Thompson, plus some other moves, it can be done.

It is anything but easy, and it is anything but likely, but the point is that it isn't impossible for the Cavs to do sign-and-trades up to and including for a max contract.

I just want to keep reminding folks that we should not box ourselves into this notion that we must keep all of Varejao, Thompson, Shump, and Mozgov. We don't.

We can choose to, but it isn't required. Not for success, nor for LeBron James to re-sign with the Cavaliers.



I agree with this 100%, just as I told @MirORich . You guys might be entirely right on this, and I could be entirely wrong. That is a distinct possibility.

That's the point, we would have to dump Andy, (which might not be possible with only low 1st round draft picks to entice) and let TT walk (doubt we can sign and trade him for much)

It just seems like an almost impossible task that will net us with less depth and not necessarily a better team if we pull it off.

Sign our free agents, let Haywood walk, resign JJ, opt in Miller, get the right rookie for the future, find a vet min and another vet 3 mill player.

That is our offseason. Now, who do we think we can reasonably get in free agency for near min money and what rookies will be available around 20 that could develop into a backup pg or center?

 

[spydy13]

I'm not sure why you're saying this..

Crawford just turned 35 years old, Smith averaged 25 mpg during his best years in the league and he also is 30 years old. Shumpert might want more minutes, but minutes are earned - to that end, he only averaged 25 minutes this season.

I really don't see any of those players have a problem with ~25 mpg on average over a season.



...I'm not saying remove him from the roster, but even if you wanted to give Delly 8-10 minutes a game, you could certainly find it. His minutes would simply be more in flux than they are today.

I also think it's a bit shortsighted to look at the playoffs while ignoring the bulk of the regular season where a backup point guard was definitely an apparent need.

Gour, I really think you're overreacting to Love's injury. Sure, it hurt and we need add depth, but you act like we weren't a top two team after the shump, smith, and mozzy trade.

Edit: as for delly, he obviously played poorly at times, but the guy kept working and we are now seeing the fruits of his labor and what he can provide us.

 

[Lee]

Nope, we need bench scoring.. Crawford provides that.

Don't know why you'd compare Jamal Crawford to Mike Miller, Haywood, or Marion though, but okay.

I like Crawford, I think he provides two things although I do see some overlap with JR. But he truly can play point, and I think Delly comes to earth soon enough (love the heroics, but I am realistic)

My only issue with Crawford is I don't think he comes here with JR here and I don't think he comes here with enough of a discount that we can afford him.

Just don't see Crawford as realistic.

 

[gourimoko]

That's the point, we would have to dump Andy, (which might not be possible with only low 1st round draft picks to entice) and let TT walk (doubt we can sign and trade him for much)

We can use the stretch provision on Varejao, we don't need to trade him. Trading him would be ideal because it would save us ~$3M/yr in cap, but, nonetheless, it isn't necessary.

Tristan has tremendous value, I'm not sure we agree that he cannot be traded. I think many teams would be interested in him.

It just seems like an almost impossible task that will net us with less depth and not necessarily a better team if we pull it off.

Less depth certainly; however, the question of better or worse depends on the specifics of a trade. It's hard to say one way or the other without evaluating actual potential trade targets.

Sign our free agents, let Haywood walk, resign JJ, opt in Miller, get the right rookie for the future, find a vet min and another vet 3 mill player.

That is our offseason.

And that's fine. I think that's the most nominal and conservative approach to the offseason. However, I don't think that's what we should be aiming to do though.

Now, who do we think we can reasonably get in free agency for near min money and what rookies will be available around 20 that could develop into a backup pg or center?

Again, if we limit ourselves to only these options, then I think we're missing an opportunity.

I would really rather the Cavaliers consider trades; trading some combination of Thompson, Shump, Mozgov, Smith and our picks for more talent.