2015 Free Agency (Cavs Centric)

[gourimoko]

I agree that it was a mistake, but it was clearly a sign or good faith to LeBron that no expense would be spared to be a winner. When this contract prevents Gilbert from continuing to spend then we have a problem. Until then it's just a blight on our books.

But this contract as well as Thompson's likely next one will prevent Gilbert from continuing to spend... That's the entire point. We can't do sign-and-trades over the apron; we can't use the full MLE over the apron.

By your own logic, we have a problem.

First off, Aldridge has had his fair share of injuries as well, including this year with his hand. Second, I think relying on more guys, like we have done this year with Shump, TT, and Delly stepping up big time, is smarter than hoping that we have more super stars healthy at the end of the year. You have benches for a reason.

Your argument seems hard to understand.

By adding Aldridge, we're somehow depending on fewer players??

I'm aware of the need for a bench, but in the playoffs you really need a core of ~8 players. Aldridge being one of those 8 hardly seems like a net negative in any reasonable scenario.

I'm simply not as concerned with regular season success and seeding as I am with the playoffs.

I agree that we shouldn't stop trying to improve, but we have found a group of guys that play well together and have very few holes. Again, I just think it would be smart to try to add to this group, go through another playoffs, and then move guys if needed. It will be a lot easier to move guys when everyone has a shit ton of cap room to use after next year.

I think you mean cap room the year after next, as all of my maths in this thread are already predicated on next year's cap (hence the $85M apron). So that means you're talking about waiting more than a year before making moves.

I think this really boils down to a difference in the estimation of how long LeBron really has left.

I know some folks here think he'll be the same old LBJ even 3-4 years from now (I could literally pull quotes from long standing members who have said this). Personally, I think the writing is already on the wall and LBJ's game has already regressed and will likely continue to regress for various reasons.

This is why I want to maximize this window of opportunity, which for me is like somewhat narrower than it is for you. Specifically, I'm referring to the window that exists prior to Love and James signing long-term deals. Once they do, and we have some semblance of contractual stability, then hopefully we can focus on maximizing the next window of opportunity.

 

[spydy13]

We can't do sign-and-trades over the apron; we can't use the full MLE over the apron.

Sign and trades rarely happen, so that option being taken off the board doesn't seem like that big of a team building option off the board, imo. Plus, you generally have to have high level assets to pull off a sign and trade (i.e. high draft picks, multiple draft picks, good young talent) and we don't have that.

Not having the full MLE will somewhat limit the type of guys we can get, but as far as I understand we can still use the tax payer's MLE every year to get guys above the minimum (i.e. ring chasing vets).

By adding Aldridge, we're somehow depending on fewer players??

I'm aware of the need for a bench, but in the playoffs you really need a core of ~8 players. Aldridge being one of those 8 hardly seems like a net negative in any reasonable scenario.

You've talked about dumping 4-5 guys in order to have the room to pull off an Aldridge signing, including some guys in our current top 8.

Maybe I've missed where you said it, but how do you plan on replacing those guys when you've spent all your cap space and assets getting a 4th super star?

So that means you're talking about waiting more than a year before making moves.

Not at all. If Gilbert is willing to spend then we'll have the Haywood contract, our 1st round pick, our 2nd round pick, and the tax-payer's MLE to add to the roster this summer. If Gilbert's wallet is open, there is no need to subtract talent from this team to add depth, especially high level depth with Haywood's contract.

This is why I want to maximize this window of opportunity, which for me is like somewhat narrower than it is for you.

I agree that there is probably only another 3 years of LeBron being close to top level LeBron, and that we should try to maximize that time. I guess we just disagree on how we should maximize it.

I also think old man LeBron, although different from the one we all know and love, will still be able to help a team win. If Paul Pierce can do it, I know LeBron can too.

 

[Otsego Mar]

I don't think LeBron is going to play much longer after his "prime". I joked about him pulling a Jim Brown on us, but I think that is more or less what will eventually happen, after he wins us a couple rings.

As it stands now, I see myself agreeing more along the lines of spydy in focusing on utilizing Haywood's contract, our draft picks, the taxpayer's MLE, and possibly vet mins to bolster our roster next year and beyond.

The idea of having LMA join up to make a big 4 seems like a pipedream - but then again so did the idea of snagging KLove at one point. I think a lot rides on the idea of "appeasing LeBron" - especially in the event he delivers a championship this year. The idea of another roster overhaul would then seem unnecessary.

I definitely think you should see how far you can stretch Haywood's contract, though. And I don't think losing a combo of TT/Shump would seem like a major overhaul - considering the pieces we could and would add after the fact.

 

[Otsego Mar]

I see Love's injury as a huge boost to TT's value right now.

I keep hearing that TT is LeBron's guy and he'll be here if not just for that fact. With that being said, does anyone else feel like Love might be the odd-man out, especially with LMA, apparently, saying that his #1 destination is Cleveland? Or maybe my Cleveland pessimism is just peeking through a little too much.

I find it unlikely another team would offer max dollars to TT, but assuming he improves and we didn't have to rely on him for more than 20-25 minutes a night, I think he'll get paid here.

I stll can't believe he allegedly turned down that contract earlier in the year.

 

[gourimoko]

Sign and trades rarely happen, so that option being taken off the board doesn't seem like that big of a team building option off the board, imo.

When you are so limited in options, the few that present themselves become that much more valuable.

Plus, you generally have to have high level assets to pull off a sign and trade (i.e. high draft picks, multiple draft picks, good young talent) and we don't have that.

No you don't.

This was the case in the old CBA not the new CBA. Large assets are not moved in sing-and-trades because there is no reason to do so.

Not having the full MLE will somewhat limit the type of guys we can get, but as far as I understand we can still use the tax payer's MLE every year to get guys above the minimum (i.e. ring chasing vets).

That depends largely on what moves we make. But I also think you are greatly diminishing the value of the full MLE.

Most teams will be able to offer the MLE, and most players won't likely take less if they aren't already aged and on their way out of the league.

You've talked about dumping 4-5 guys in order to have the room to pull off an Aldridge signing, including some guys in our current top 8.

I've talked about 'dumping' Varejao and Mike Miller, neither of whom are in our top 8 and don't figure to be next year.

I've talked about trading Tristan Thompson for equal or greater value, regardless of whether or not we pursue Aldridge. So I wouldn't use the term "dumping."

Same goes for one of Shump, Mozgov, or Smith.

Again, using a combination of our assets to improve the team.

If no improvement can be made, then you stand pat.

Maybe I've missed where you said it, but how do you plan on replacing those guys when you've spent all your cap space and assets getting a 4th super star?

Perhaps you've assumed that we would only take back LMA? This is not likely the case.

Also, again, Aldridge would replace Tristan, and Varejao isn't likely to play out a full season in my book. The only player really needing to be replaced would be one of the three rotation players mentioned above.

This isn't as difficult as your scenario makes it out to be.

Not at all. If Gilbert is willing to spend then we'll have the Haywood contract, our 1st round pick, our 2nd round pick, and the tax-payer's MLE to add to the roster this summer.

But I've already said this, and we've been over this numerous times. Our options are restricted due to being over the apron. Haywood alone doesn't net us much (he might be worth a late first), and we're limited in how we can use that contract and what players we can pursue.

Haywood is most valuable in a sign-and-trade scenario, and Windhorst went over this back in January. Again, the problem with our current situation, as Lee alluded to, is that we are over the apron; therefore, it makes it very difficult to actually trade Haywood under the rules.

If, however, we were willing to add assets, or go below the apron, then our options (and MLE) increase.

If Gilbert's wallet is open, there is no need to subtract talent from this team to add depth, especially high level depth with Haywood's contract.

Again, it's just not this simple. Haywood alone won't net us that much talent because teams aren't going to trade assets for salary relief in the last year of this CBA, not with a $100M cap looming over the horizon.

It's a salary dumping tool in a time where the cap is already projected to explode. I think you're now actually overvaluing Haywood's contract.

His best use would be in a sign-and-trade, where we simply needed salaries to match (actually to exceed what we take in); barring that, it's not likely we use Haywood in a trade, and in that instance I would agree with Lee, we'd simply decline the option or maybe trade him for a late pick.

I agree that there is probably only another 3 years of LeBron being close to top level LeBron, and that we should try to maximize that time. I guess we just disagree on how we should maximize it.

LeBron isn't even close to his "top level" at this point IMHO. He's still very good, but not compared to his Miami years.

Much of that is due to coaching and system, much of it is on personnel, the rest is on his body.

I also think old man LeBron, although different from the one we all know and love, will still be able to help a team win. If Paul Pierce can do it, I know LeBron can too.

Paul Pierce???

.....

We should try to win now.

 

[MirORich]

We should not be so adamantly opposed to making sensible trades if they can be made. And understand, I'm not saying they can be -- we might be best standing pat as Lee and MirORich have suggested.

I wouldn't characterize my preference as standing pat.

While I acknowledge there are other paths, I think the best one, Dan Gilbert willing, is to push our team salary to the absolute max that we can via the options we have available.

The first part of the plan IS standing pat/maintaining our core. Keeping LBJ, Irving, Love, Moz, TT, Shump, JR, Delly, Andy, Jones, Miller, Harris.

Followed by:

Keeping and using the 24th pick to add a young talent.

Using the tax payer MLE going after one of the following: Koufus, Seraphin, Al Farouq Aminu, Norris Cole, Corey Joseph, KJ McDaniels
All are under 28 and all but Aminu and McDaniel have a Cleveland connection.

Using the Haywood contract to add Splitter or another talent that a team looking to shed luxury tax monies owed or create more salary cap space wants to get rid of. Alternately, we could take back a player we value less, but are willing to pay if they come along with a future 1st round pick.

So, if we retained the core of our roster, added Splitter, added Norris Cole, Aminu, or McDaniel via FA, and took a PG or athletic wing with pick 24, I would hardly call that standing pat.

I'd call it the best roster in basketball to be frank.

And lets not forget Golden State and Atlanta benefit greatly from the core talent of their team having played together for 2-3 years. We will also have that working in our favor in year 2.

 

[Cavatt]

The reason you keep TT is that he is willing to come off the bench, same with AV actually. You get Aldridge and who comes off the bench? Great way to get a star to walk IMO.

If I was going to get Aldridge, I'd trade Love. Those two are not a pf c combo, so neither of them are gonna like be an insurance policy for the other.

I actually think a pure point who can hit some shots and defends better than our starter is perfect, and that is Delly. He is pretty injury resistant. He sprained his knee, but he played through it to a higher level at the end of the year.

Backup c is AV or Tristan if Andy gets hurt. The position most in need is a defensive 3 who can hit a 3. Maybe that's shump but I would prefer a margin Williams type who could play small 4 in a pinch.

Personally I think playing Lebron more like 30 min in the regular season would be best for him and for the self reliance of the team. Yes he played the lowest of his career, but he was still in the top 5 of minutes played all year.

 

[nikolajz1]

I wonder if it's possible at all to work out a sign and trade for Marc Gasol? Haywood + Mozgov comes close to fitting salary wise. Throw in a few picks and Memphis might agree?

 

[MirORich]

I wonder if it's possible at all to work out a sign and trade for Marc Gasol? Haywood + Mozgov comes close to fitting salary wise. Throw in a few picks and Memphis might agree?

You'd have to also let Tristan walk or include him in the Memphis trade. If we acquire a player via S&T, we HAVE to be under the luxury tax apron for the entire 2015-2016 season.

LeBron, Love, Gasol, Andy and Kyrie alone would cost between 84-86 million. That would literally leave us with a couple million for the entire rest of the roster. Our depth would be close to nil.

 

[mhi]

IMO If we are to sign TT to the full amount he wants, then we should already be looking to turn AV into two decent players. If no one bites, we should stretch his contract if it gives us even an ounce of flexibility.

I also agree on acquiring wing depth that can actually play. Lebron's minutes should be decreased to 30-33 next yr.

 

[Mdog1]

I think this is a very interesting FA crop. It will be interesting to see what players with options will do.

You take a guy like Roy Hibbert for example. His value is basically rock bottom at this point. Does he keep his option, knowing that likely nobody is giving him anywhere near what he is making now, and hope to have a bounce back year to get paid under the new cap.

A guy like JR is an interesting case as well. A little old, but lets say his value is exactly 7 million a year, for 4 years, 28 million. Next off season, his value might be 11 million, over 4 for 44 million.

I also think the FA market will seriously impact the trade market. A lot of cap space out there, but the FA fishes are next off season, not this one. Could be an opportunity for us to use the Haywood contract to take advantage of a team.

 

[Muffinalt]

A few fairly random, but relevant points...

Despite that inflated team salary, the Cavs would have really no backup to LeBron (I'm not counting Mike Miller as a legitimate backup at this point), and feel despite the cost they really need to invest in bringing in a guy who can backup LeBron and also preferably play smallball 4. I'll throw out some names:

Jerebko
Teletovic
Wesley Johnson
Babbitt
Mbah a Moute
Dudley
Singler
Aminu

Some of these guys -- especially Aminu -- won't be available for the Cavs' $3.4M taxpayers MLE, but many of them will be. Some may even be minimum guys.

If, despite their team salary, the Cavs want to invest even more, they could use the Haywood contract. The guy I would probably target is Marvin Williams. Can stretch the floor with his shooting, play backup at the 3, and smallball 4. Has been around forever since being overdrafted back in 2005, but still turns only 29 this summer.

I have been thinking a lot about this point lately. Assuming we can bring everybody back on the current roster, I see our biggest need being that backup 3&D/occasional small ball 4. Ala replacing James Jones. I think that would be a BIG improvement, think of the effective lineups with Battier and LBJ in miami. Besides that position what are we really looking to upgrade? A 3rd string PG who can penetrate? A developmental big? Those can be addressed, and arent immediate needs.

Can Hollis-Jefferson or Justin Anderson be that backup? I doubt they would see much small ball usage, RHJ limits us offensively without shooting (think of Marion) and Anderson would give up too much against PFs (probably the same production of JJ). We need someone that can be played at the 4, or at the 3 allowing LBJs to play in the post. So the requirements are have a good 3 shot and be big enough to bang a little with the usual PFs.

Williams would be the best choice obviously. I like Dudley and Jerebko too, and my personal favorite remains to be Darrell Arthur. By chance I was reading some stuff about Philly today, and came across two players, Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson (on bballbreakdown nonetheless).

Covington is on a 4yr/4 million contract or something like that, and Im not even sure about Thompson. Theyre both 6'9 and have very nice 3pt strokes. Covington is labeled as a combo-forward and played that mostly in college and the D-league, though from what i gathered he is used mostly as a 3 in philly. Thompson is the 3-D guy of philly, tasked with the toughest assignments, and he is said to have potential but is not there yet by any means. They both guard the occasional PF but would be eaten alive by the ZBos. Especially Covington though, hold their own easy as an SF.

Anybody have more info on them? Have you seen these two play? Covington is someone Philly actually would want to keep and needs to be traded for, but its Philly.

Any other names?

 

[Muffinalt]

dbl.

 

[bigfoot5415]

We arent going to be active in free agency. We have too many key pieces that need to be resigned. Here is how our offseason will look.

1) LBJ & Love option situation. Call me crazy, but given Love's injury, and his history, I wouldnt be shocked if he worked out a new deal now. Granted its less than 5% likely that itll happen, but I could see it.

2) Sign TT & Shump. Both are key to our long term success. TT will get $13 mil, and Shump will get around $10 mil. I would obviously rather lock them in over them taking the QO and trying again next year. Both contracts seem like a lot now, but in 2 years, both will be around 10% of the salary cap...not even factoring in luxury tax. Well worth it in both cases.

3) Pick up MozGods option. Hes a huge piece to our team, and we must keep him. With that being said, it would be nice to work out a new deal. If not, try again next year.

4) JR Swish will pick up his option. No reason to leave. Unless he wants a new long term deal. Either way he will get paid someday.

5) Pay Delly what anyone is willing to pay him (doubt itll be that high). We will give him the QO, but I know a fringe guy like him will take the best long term deal (expect a few mil).

6) Hope Mike Miller retires. Jones & Marion are both likely gone.

7) Sign Perkins for cheap. Keep him as the 6th big. Muscle/Vet Presence

Right there we have 7 guys, 10 with Andy, Harris, & Kyrie.



That leaves 5 spots open.

1) 1st round pick. I personally hope they trade up for Stanley Johnson or Oubre. Stanley Johnson could be Kawhi Leonard very soon. Bring them along slow for year 1, and give them big minutes in year 2. No one will fill the shoes of LBJ, but having a defense 1st wing, who can develop an offense will help the long term prosperity of this team.

If not, take a developmental C and give him sparing minutes. Dakari Johnson Baby!!!

2) Trade Brendan Haywood for 3 players, atleast 2 will be serviceable and fit the Marion, Miller, Jones roles. Hopefully they are younger than the aforementioned, but provide similiar skill sets, and at greater consistency. I expect Harris to slide into the Miller role.

That will leave you with:
1) James
2) Irving
3) Love
4) Thompson
5) Varejao
6) JR
7) Mozgov
8) Harris
9) Delly
10) Shumpert
11) Perkins (I fully expect him to comeback)
12) 1st rounder
13) Player acquired from Haywood trade
14) Player acquired from Haywood trade
15) Player acquired from Haywood trade/ 2nd rounder/ rookie FA

We will be active in FA, but it wont be signing new players. It will be locking ours up, and planning for soon to expire deals.

 

[kovanovich]

It's always hard for me not to chime in on posts like this. I have to think eventually we'll cover all conceivable scenarios.

We arent going to be active in free agency. We have too many key pieces that need to be resigned. Here is how our offseason will look.

1) LBJ & Love option situation. Call me crazy, but given Love's injury, and his history, I wouldnt be shocked if he worked out a new deal now. Granted its less than 5% likely that itll happen, but I could see it.

With Love, I don't think anything would surprise me. Indicators are that he will be back at least one more year though. But that's subject to change.

2) Sign TT & Shump. Both are key to our long term success. TT will get $13 mil, and Shump will get around $10 mil. I would obviously rather lock them in over them taking the QO and trying again next year. Both contracts seem like a lot now, but in 2 years, both will be around 10% of the salary cap...not even factoring in luxury tax. Well worth it in both cases.

So hard projecting what the Cavs' free agents will end up getting, but with Thompson we have a pretty good idea, and it's going to be more than 4 yrs/$52-54M. Whether it's $56M or closer to $60M (as Windy has recently suggested) remains to be seen.

The fact that Demarre Carroll and Jae Crowder are not badly hurt, may cool the market for Shump a bit. Yes, they are more 3s than 2s, but they are all known as perimeter defenders.

3) Pick up MozGods option. Hes a huge piece to our team, and we must keep him. With that being said, it would be nice to work out a new deal. If not, try again next year.

I think that in order to retain some fiscal sanity, they will need to pick up his $5M team option, and worry about 2016 when it gets here. This entails some risk that he will actually leave in 2016.

4) JR Swish will pick up his option. No reason to leave. Unless he wants a new long term deal. Either way he will get paid someday.

I guess we will just have to see, but I suspect he opts out and goes for a multiyear contract since he will be turning 30 this summer. I imagine he would be interested in re-signing if the money is right.

5) Pay Delly what anyone is willing to pay him (doubt itll be that high). We will give him the QO, but I know a fringe guy like him will take the best long term deal (expect a few mil).

See above; still hard to predict what he will get.

6) Hope Mike Miller retires. Jones & Marion are both likely gone.

I think hoping Miller walks away from $2.8M is wishful thinking.

Marion has said he will retire.

I guess we will have to see on Jones. I guess I am okay with him if he is like their 15th man.

7) Sign Perkins for cheap. Keep him as the 6th big. Muscle/Vet Presence

I am meh, at best, on Perk. Sort of like them take a chance on finding the next Whiteside or find some undervalued/under the radar younger vet. Maybe someone like Jeff Withey. Just one guy who will be a free agent.

Right there we have 7 guys, 10 with Andy, Harris, & Kyrie.

I've got them with 11: LeBron, Kyrie, Love, TT, Andy, Shump, JR, Moz, Harris, Delly, Miller.

Which leaves 4 open spots and these needs: PG, wing/combo forward, big man, maybe one more open spot (James Jones?)

Tools to fill these spots: 24th pick, Haywood contract, taxpayers MLE, minimum salary contract(s)

One thing worth keeping in mind: Griffin this year purposely kept the bottom of the roster fluid. He had a vet in Amundson on a non-guaranteed deal who was a hard worker and was, quite frankly, happy to have a job in the NBA, and it was no problem trading him. All parties knew it was just business. Then he had Alex Kirk, an undrafted free agent, again a guy Griffin had no particular problem trading. If the roster plays out the way we hope it does, Griffin may not have to worry about building in some flexibility at the bottom of the roster.

That leaves 5 spots open.

1) 1st round pick. I personally hope they trade up for Stanley Johnson or Oubre. Stanley Johnson could be Kawhi Leonard very soon. Bring them along slow for year 1, and give them big minutes in year 2. No one will fill the shoes of LBJ, but having a defense 1st wing, who can develop an offense will help the long term prosperity of this team.

If not, take a developmental C and give him sparing minutes. Dakari Johnson Baby!!!

What are you trading to move up? When San Antonio moved up back in 2011 to draft Leonard they had a young vet in George Hill who had value and was under contract on a reasonable deal. Cavs don't really have anything a team picking around 10 would want, and I personally wouldn't care to burn any assets to get a 19 year old anyway.

I think trading the pick makes some sense if they can acquire a targeted player (or two) via the Haywood contract.

2) Trade Brendan Haywood for 3 players, atleast 2 will be serviceable and fit the Marion, Miller, Jones roles. Hopefully they are younger than the aforementioned, but provide similiar skill sets, and at greater consistency. I expect Harris to slide into the Miller role.

That will leave you with:
1) James
2) Irving
3) Love
4) Thompson
5) Varejao
6) JR
7) Mozgov
8) Harris
9) Delly
10) Shumpert
11) Perkins (I fully expect him to comeback)
12) 1st rounder
13) Player acquired from Haywood trade
14) Player acquired from Haywood trade
15) Player acquired from Haywood trade/ 2nd rounder/ rookie FA

We will be active in FA, but it wont be signing new players. It will be locking ours up, and planning for soon to expire deals.

Many are assuming the Cavs will use their taxpayers MLE, but there is no guarantee they will and if they get one or two players using the Haywood contract, I tend to doubt that they will.

The big question for me is how motivated they will be to use the Haywood contract, or if at this point it is mainly viewed as insurance in case they lose Love or Smith or another one of their free agents.