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2016 College Football Lines/Gambling Thread
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TheLand1287
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My under 41.5 is in serious jeopardy too.
AZ_
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Wish I'd get that, up to 16.5 on 5d
Lamar Jackson just shredding Syracuse through ground and air but fumbles keeping Syracuse alive. I ended up taking Cuse +17.5 and then doubled down on Cuse in game line +32.5 when it was getting ugly. 17.5 is clearly a loss but hope Cuse keeps it respectable. Lamar Jackson against FSU next week will be interesting....
I wanted to play Maryland tonight but the ghost of Randy Edsall and Maryland playing down to competition scared me. Good to see Maryland handle their business like they should against FIU.
I wanted to play Maryland tonight but the ghost of Randy Edsall and Maryland playing down to competition scared me. Good to see Maryland handle their business like they should against FIU.
TheLand1287
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Early games
Wyoming +24.5
East Carolina +7
Boston College +1 (1H)
Wyoming +24.5
East Carolina +7
Boston College +1 (1H)
natedagg
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If you guys have reasons why you bet what you did, please write it out if you have time. That way we all get better...
I have bets in for Clemson game going over 63 (a capper I follow likes them) on the bounce back from a pretty craptastic showing last week. They also have only 4 starters returning on defense, and 8 on offense, so basically I the idea is that they just laid an egg last week.
Returning starters here: http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2016/FEB16/DBFeb16.html
A cool** different way to look at returning starters: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford
**This had LSU as a dominant force and Tennesee as projected to be awesome too, so obviously a grain of salt.
I took Duke -6.5 against Wake on the theory that Wake sucks and can't score. They won 7-3 last week against Tulane and put up.........................................96 yards. I might have to add to this wager...
Now, here's where I am looking for a debate... Someone talk me out of betting on Tulsa today getting 28.5 points.
-OSU defense returns very few people. Sure the new guys are awesome, but this is a spread offense so it'll be a bit different.
-Tulsa returns many starters and that other website says they should be better this year too FWIW.
-OSU beat a pretty bad BGSU team.
-Tulsa beat a bowl team from a season ago in their opener. And they beat them by more points than anyone else did last year.
-Tulsa was a (bad) bowl team last year, but they did play some big boys (Houston, Okla, Memphis). Their defense sucked last year, but they did win 45-10 in their first game this year.
-OSU in a trap/look ahead situation with Okla on deck. Lots of new players, lots of hype, lots of... mistakes? We'll see, but as a bettor, this is a trap game.
-The ole "thread as proxy" technique: the game thread for the buckeye game has 2 posts as I write this. I have found that, over the years (across all sports), with no data backing this whatsoever, that when the threads are dead, the team can come out flat.
-Joe 6 pack theory: The average college kid about to wager on this game will just look at how OSU crushed last week and slap down the bet, I have to think. Therefor, I should be on the other side of that.
Ok, so somebody talk me off of these points or agree with me. Might see that spread go up too toward game-time.
I have bets in for Clemson game going over 63 (a capper I follow likes them) on the bounce back from a pretty craptastic showing last week. They also have only 4 starters returning on defense, and 8 on offense, so basically I the idea is that they just laid an egg last week.
Returning starters here: http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2016/FEB16/DBFeb16.html
A cool** different way to look at returning starters: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford
**This had LSU as a dominant force and Tennesee as projected to be awesome too, so obviously a grain of salt.
I took Duke -6.5 against Wake on the theory that Wake sucks and can't score. They won 7-3 last week against Tulane and put up.........................................96 yards. I might have to add to this wager...
Now, here's where I am looking for a debate... Someone talk me out of betting on Tulsa today getting 28.5 points.
-OSU defense returns very few people. Sure the new guys are awesome, but this is a spread offense so it'll be a bit different.
-Tulsa returns many starters and that other website says they should be better this year too FWIW.
-OSU beat a pretty bad BGSU team.
-Tulsa beat a bowl team from a season ago in their opener. And they beat them by more points than anyone else did last year.
-Tulsa was a (bad) bowl team last year, but they did play some big boys (Houston, Okla, Memphis). Their defense sucked last year, but they did win 45-10 in their first game this year.
-OSU in a trap/look ahead situation with Okla on deck. Lots of new players, lots of hype, lots of... mistakes? We'll see, but as a bettor, this is a trap game.
-The ole "thread as proxy" technique: the game thread for the buckeye game has 2 posts as I write this. I have found that, over the years (across all sports), with no data backing this whatsoever, that when the threads are dead, the team can come out flat.
-Joe 6 pack theory: The average college kid about to wager on this game will just look at how OSU crushed last week and slap down the bet, I have to think. Therefor, I should be on the other side of that.
Ok, so somebody talk me off of these points or agree with me. Might see that spread go up too toward game-time.
natedagg
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Adding another technical angle: 76% of the wagers are on the buckeyes to cover (www.vegasinsider.com), yet the line hasn't moved. This suggests that either the smaller wagers (dumb money) are on OSU and/or the house is betting on Tulsa.
Tulsa didn't throw ball much last week and relied heavily on the run. I don't like that formula against the Bucks.
They also were around 120th in team defense last year.
Lastly, I think Urban wants his guys tasting and drinking blood. I think OSU opens a can.
Very short summary but I think I'm taking Bucks to cover.
They also were around 120th in team defense last year.
Lastly, I think Urban wants his guys tasting and drinking blood. I think OSU opens a can.
Very short summary but I think I'm taking Bucks to cover.
Wyoming has played pretty well...good pick there. If Wyoming had a kicker they'd be winning. Hoping game stays semi close. As I type Nebraska puts another TD on board. Need it to stay within 24.5.
Penn State has let me down but still have 4th Q. PSU dug such a hole in first Q they fucked themselves. I've got them at +6 so hoping the backdoor it.
East Carolina has played well. Looking solid on that pick.
Penn State has let me down but still have 4th Q. PSU dug such a hole in first Q they fucked themselves. I've got them at +6 so hoping the backdoor it.
East Carolina has played well. Looking solid on that pick.