2019 Browns Off Season/Roster Discussion

[MGMT]

lmao @ the Chiefs, Packers and Bills.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

the case could be made that given the same volume, Callaway and Higgins would produce more efficiently than Landry has and would.

I absolutely hate this mindset. That's like saying someone like Kenny Stills could be an amazing receiver if he just got the volume of the other guys.

There's a reason those guys don't get the same volume--they don't have the ability to get open the same way someone like Landry does. The ability to get open in tight, short routes is so valuable to today's NFL. Sure, the big plays get the ESPN highlights, but the consistent underneath catches that guys like Landry, Golden Tate, Julian Edelman make--those are enormous game changers that don't get talked about enough.

I love both Higgins and Callaway. I was on the Callaway train before the draft. But neither of them has the same ability to get open in tight spaces that Jarvis has.

 

[CBBI]

There's a reason those guys don't get the same volume--they don't have the ability to get open the same way someone like Landry does.

It's just more complex than this. This is a serious simplification of the way NFL offenses actually work.

You're making it out like passing plays are nothing more than street ball and the QB takes the snap having no clue which guy is going to get open and then throws it based off which players comes open first and that's just not the case unless the structure of the pocket breaks down and it become a scramble drill.

Every single passing play is designed with a primary first read, a second read, a third read, etc. No NFL play caller instructs their QB to throw it to the first man they see open.

Coordinators design individuals plays to get their primary target open (not necessarily their No. 1 WR, but the primary option on a given play). If the primary option is open, the ball comes out. If the primary option is not open, then the QB goes to the next read. It doesn't really matter if the second or third read actually get open or not. They can be open and the first read is still getting the ball if he's open.

WR volume is significantly more predetermined than you're suggesting. Especially if the offensive line can ensure the pocket holds up and the play caller is creative.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

It's just more complex than this. This is a serious simplification of the way NFL offenses actually work.

You're making it out like passing plays are nothing more than street ball and the QB takes the snap having no clue which guy is going to get open and then throws it based off which players comes open first and that's just not the case unless the structure of the pocket breaks down and it become a scramble drill.

Every single passing play is designed with a primary first read, a second read, a third read, etc. No NFL play caller instructs their QB to throw it to the first man they see open.

Coordinators design individuals plays to get their primary target open (not necessarily their No. 1 WR, but the primary option on a given play). If the primary option is open, the ball comes out. If the primary option is not open, then the QB goes to the next read. It doesn't really matter if the second or third read actually get open or not. They can be open and the first read is still getting the ball if he's open.

WR volume is significantly more predetermined than you're suggesting. Especially if the offensive line can ensure the pocket holds up and the play caller is creative.

So much of your post is correct, but your conclusion is wrong. It's a really common consensus in fantasy football and it's just completely and utterly incorrect.

WR volume is so much more dependent on a WR's ability than you're suggesting. Otherwise, crappy "first options" would have put up monster numbers of catches. Every year people claim that shit-tier "first option" receivers are due for big numbers because the volume will be there. And every year, it never pans out. Guys like Dwayne Bowe when he was our first read just can't get open.

 

[CBBI]

So much of your post is correct, but your conclusion is wrong. It's a really common consensus in fantasy football and it's just completely and utterly incorrect.

WR volume is so much more dependent on a WR's ability than you're suggesting. Otherwise, crappy "first options" would have put up monster numbers of catches. Every year people claim that shit-tier "first option" receivers are due for big numbers because the volume will be there. And every year, it never pans out. Guys like Dwayne Bowe when he was our first read just can't get open.

The problem with what you're saying is that WR volume and WR production are completely different things.

WR volume is HEAVILY dependent on offensive scheme. The main option is going to get the ball thrown to him a lot even if he's not very good.

WR production is tied to the WR's skill and to a lesser extent his QB's skill.

Terrelle Pryor is inarguably a bad WR, but he had 1000 yards in 2016 on a 1 win team because he was 12th in the NFL in targets. With enough targets, any WR is gonna put up SOME level of production because even the worst teams in the NFL are going to throw for 3000-3500 yards.

The yards have to go somewhere.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

The problem with what you're saying is that WR volume and WR production are completely different things.

WR volume is HEAVILY dependent on offensive scheme. The main option is going to get the ball thrown to him a lot even if he's not very good.

WR production is tied to the WR's skill and to a lesser extent his QB's skill.

Terrelle Pryor is inarguably a bad WR, but he had 1000 yards in 2016 on a 1 win team because he was 12th in the NFL in targets. With enough targets, any WR is gonna put up SOME level of production because even the worst teams in the NFL are going to throw for 3000-3500 yards.

The yards have to go somewhere.

Putting aside any questions I have for you about separation per route, or comparing short and intermediate routes to deep routes, just how do you evaluate wr production in your viewpoint?

 

[CBBI]

Putting aside any questions I have for you about separation per route, or comparing short and intermediate routes to deep routes, just how do you evaluate wr production in your viewpoint?

It's not a perfect stat because it can penalize WRs for inaccurate QBs/other WRs on the team not getting open, but generally I find yards per target to be a good measurement.

 

[natedagg]

This shit is so tired.

Let’s not focus on Juice’s contract down the road. Let’s just enjoy this season and how stacked we are. We will have more data and someone can be right and get their “I told you so”’s.

Until then, we are going to be really hard to stop on offense, and Juice is a part of that. Don’t squeeze the fun sponge.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

This shit is so tired.

Let’s not focus on Juice’s contract down the road. Let’s just enjoy this season and how stacked we are. We will have more data and someone can be right and get their “I told you so”’s.

Until then, we are going to be really hard to stop on offense, and Juice is a part of that. Don’t squeeze the fun sponge.

What's the point of lashing out against discussion on a forum?

 

[natedagg]

What's the point of lashing out against discussion on a forum?

This isn’t lashing out.

It’s the same argument regurgitated for the 7th time. I am actually impressed how many ways people can dice this, and all of the free time people have to dice it. But it is, indeed, the same argument with various ways of saying the same thing.

When people ask me about the Browns, I tell them that this is the best part: going from suck to good. After we get good, the expectations will be higher and people will bitch about, well, everything. Looks like I gave fans too much credit - off of a sub-.500 season, we are already anticipating and finding the issues with one of our locker room leaders who helped turn this dogshit around.

Just never mind. Keep posting bro. Do that research. Get that win. Feed that frail ego. You got this.






















You are annoying.

























And you have no friends.

 

[Sebastian]

Comparing Landry to real WR1s isn't a fair comparison.

Landry is a (the) premier slot receiver. He is the best, or nearly so, at his skill-set.

Should he be making what he is? Probably not. But comparing him to the likes of Julio Jones or OBJ is almost a straw-man argument. He should be compared to Edelman and the like.

Landry is going to excel next to OBJ (and will be a PPR darling again). And I don't think Callaway or Higgins can replace him. They're just different types of players.

 

[CBBI]

Landry is going to excel next to OBJ (and will be a PPR darling again). And I don't think Callaway or Higgins can replace him. They're just different types of players.

We shall see. I think his efficiency could/should go up in terms of yards per target, but I think his raw production is going to drop pretty dramatically on volume alone.

Landry has averaged over 150 targets per year over the last four years, about 9.5 per game.

But there’s almost no way that number doesn’t drop for several reasons.

1. Beckham justifiably has averaged 10.5 targets per game for his career. This shouldn’t drop at all (and frankly should go up) because he’s that good. There’s almost no way for Landry to continue to get 9.5 targets a game with Beckham presumably getting 10+.

2. Mayfield last year under Kitchens threw the ball about 33 times a game. Going off Kitchens half a season as a play caller, Monken’s time as a play caller and historical averages, I think we can safely estimate Beckham for 10-11 targets a game, the RB group for 5-6 a game and the TE/FB group for 5-6 a game. Add all that up and you’re at roughly 22 of 33 targets accounted for. That only leaves approximately 11 more targets to be split among the rest of the WRs. Do we really think Landry’s gonna get 9.5 of those and Callaway/Higgins are going to split the other 1.5? More realistically given Mayfield’s ability to break and make plays out of structure combined with his desire to NOT get sacked, a fair number of projected targets for Landry is 6-7, Callaway 3-4 and Higgins is the odd man out getting 1-2 a game.

3. Landry’s targets already dropped from 11.7 under Haley to 6.9 per game under Kitchens and that was WITHOUT target a target vacuum OBJ in the mix.

6-7 targets a game for Landry over the whole season would project out to around 96-112 total, which would be the lowest figure of his career.

I’m guessing something like 65-70 catches for 800-850 yards and 4-5 touchdowns for Landry.

There’s only so many passes to go around.

 

[sportscoach]

We shall see. I think his efficiency could/should go up in terms of yards per target, but I think his raw production is going to drop pretty dramatically on volume alone.

Landry has averaged over 150 targets per year over the last four years, about 9.5 per game.

But there’s almost no way that number doesn’t drop for several reasons.

1. Beckham justifiably has averaged 10.5 targets per game for his career. This shouldn’t drop at all (and frankly should go up) because he’s that good. There’s almost no way for Landry to continue to get 9.5 targets a game with Beckham presumably getting 10+.

2. Mayfield last year under Kitchens threw the ball about 33 times a game. Going off Kitchens half a season as a play caller, Monken’s time as a play caller and historical averages, I think we can safely estimate Beckham for 10-11 targets a game, the RB group for 5-6 a game and the TE/FB group for 5-6 a game. Add all that up and you’re at roughly 22 of 33 targets accounted for. That only leaves approximately 11 more targets to be split among the rest of the WRs. Do we really think Landry’s gonna get 9.5 of those abs Callaway/Higgins are going to split the other 1.5? More realistically given Mayfield’s ability to break and make plays out of structure combined with his desire to NOT get sacked, a fair number of projected targets for Landry is 6-7, Callaway 3-4 and Higgins is the odd man out getting 1-2 a game.

3. Landry’s targets already dropped from 11.7 under Haley to 6.9 per game under Kitchens and that was WITHOUT target a target vacuum OBJ in the mix.

6-7 targets a game for Landry over the whole season would project out to around 96-112 total, which would be the lowest figure of his career.

I’m guessing something like 65-70 catches for 800-850 yards and 4-5 touchdowns for Landry.

There’s only so many passes to go around.

As funny as this sounds, I actually feel OBJs targets are going to be less than in the past since he is on a team with a lot of targets and a QB who isn't afraid to spread and will spread the ball around.

Reason why I say this is, teams arent going to allow OBJ to beat them one on one, he is way too good, but that means if you put an extra/spy on him in a sense, it will allow the other guys to get open and with Landry being an extremely good slot style guy, maybe the best in the business there, plus having Njoku, Duke (hopefully) who are also good, then you have Callaway, Higgins, Chubb and Hunt (later), the ball will get spread around a lot more than his days at the Giants.

Going by the 33 a game passes, you can OBJ to get 25% (He's always been 25-30% in his career, I expect a lower percentage this season so lets say 25 then), so he will get about 8 per game, Landry I think will get 6, Njoku about 6, Then 13 spread between everyone else.

Mayfield is the type of QB who is going to normally go for the high percentage of completion possibility on most plays, so he was only averaging 7ish yard per play and if Odell gets double teamed like we expect, it will be the other guys who benefit, get more catches and everything else.

Landry's catches went down because he was the guy who was the main threat on this roster and when that happens and he is the guy who is double teamed, Mayfield will go to the opening in the defense which wasn't then landry, but Landry this season will be put into a role he is meant for plus will not often be double teamed plus have Njoku beside him drawing attention too. I don't actually expect as big of year from OBJ as some people would, but I expect a well round and spread out offense that is hard to contain, so I think the numbers may end up going up because of that fact.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Browns actually ran 35.9 pass plays per game last year. Pittsburgh led the league with 43.1.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/pass-attempts-per-game

Improvements on both sides of the ball may lead us to running more offensive plays this year than we did last year. So rather than divvying up 33 passes per game as has been discussed, the number could be around 40 or so.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

We shall see. I think his efficiency could/should go up in terms of yards per target, but I think his raw production is going to drop pretty dramatically on volume alone.

Landry has averaged over 150 targets per year over the last four years, about 9.5 per game.

But there’s almost no way that number doesn’t drop for several reasons.

1. Beckham justifiably has averaged 10.5 targets per game for his career. This shouldn’t drop at all (and frankly should go up) because he’s that good. There’s almost no way for Landry to continue to get 9.5 targets a game with Beckham presumably getting 10+.

2. Mayfield last year under Kitchens threw the ball about 33 times a game. Going off Kitchens half a season as a play caller, Monken’s time as a play caller and historical averages, I think we can safely estimate Beckham for 10-11 targets a game, the RB group for 5-6 a game and the TE/FB group for 5-6 a game. Add all that up and you’re at roughly 22 of 33 targets accounted for. That only leaves approximately 11 more targets to be split among the rest of the WRs. Do we really think Landry’s gonna get 9.5 of those and Callaway/Higgins are going to split the other 1.5? More realistically given Mayfield’s ability to break and make plays out of structure combined with his desire to NOT get sacked, a fair number of projected targets for Landry is 6-7, Callaway 3-4 and Higgins is the odd man out getting 1-2 a game.

3. Landry’s targets already dropped from 11.7 under Haley to 6.9 per game under Kitchens and that was WITHOUT target a target vacuum OBJ in the mix.

6-7 targets a game for Landry over the whole season would project out to around 96-112 total, which would be the lowest figure of his career.

I’m guessing something like 65-70 catches for 800-850 yards and 4-5 touchdowns for Landry.

There’s only so many passes to go around.

I think we're in agreement with regards to our statistical projections for Jarvis next year. I was guessing something closer to 110-120 targets, for around 80 catches, and I'll admit that's on the high end. I think there's a good chance we run the ball more than anyone's expecting.

@natedagg wow... If you have issues with people discussing where Jarvis Landry fits among the rest of the WR's in the NFL, I'm not sure this is the best way to vent your emotions. "Keep posting bro. Do that research. Get that win. Feed that frail ego. You got this. You are annoying. And you have no friends." is an awful look on you. I'm not quoting the post itself just in case you feel like editing it. I sure wouldn't want it sticking around as part of my history.