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2019 NBA Draft

Discussion in 'Trades, Free Agency, & the Draft' started by Nathan S, Jun 26, 2018.

  1. 3 Ball...GOT IT

    3 Ball...GOT IT #CediSZN

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    That’s pretty interesting. A lot of his turnovers just come off of alley-oop attempts he has no business throwing. But he doesn’t take care of the ball otherwise either. I think that charting would be limited in usefulness without doing for every prospect you’re looking at for a point of reference.

    What I would want to chart for players is the type of turnovers... Lost handle, poor decision, overzealous, travels, charges, etc... To me, some are more improvable than others. I know I brought it up awhile ago, but so many of Darius Garland's turnovers were a product of being overzealous. Just going for absurd cross court wrap around passes and whatnot lol... meanwhile you'd see him make advanced reads in P&R too. I'd think those are far more likely to improve than a guy with a subpar handle.

    Ja is in the same boat too... I think he just fucks around out there most of the time because he can lol... And his TOV may be just slightly inflated because of it. He's obviously a tremendous passer regardless.
     
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  2. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    I don't think Reid's overall body of work this season is too impressive, but he's been fantastic today. 26 points, including multiple impressive dunks and two clutch 3's in the final minute, and 14 rebounds. One more guy who could be a surprise top-10 pick, especially with another game or two like this in March Madness.
     
  3. TyGuy

    TyGuy Chinese

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    Getting the 4th pick would really suck. There is a clear tier here backed up by all kinds of data. Tier 1 is Zion all by himself. Tier 2 you have Morant and RJ. I'm starting to think Morant is the better overall prospect, but I wouldn't be upset landing RJ. Getting the 4th pick would be a kick in the balls.
     
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  4. 3 Ball...GOT IT

    3 Ball...GOT IT #CediSZN

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    The saving grace if they fall is that there will be a lot of guys that are quality fits for the current roster.
     
  5. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Payne rated like a typical 1st round PG (right around 1.00).

    [​IMG]

    I highlighted the categories where there were wider gaps.

    JA is a far more efficient scorer.....higher assist producer, higher FT producer, better FT shooter....BLK/STL were a wash.

    Additionally JA is a year younger than Payne, has far more interesting physical tools and the ability to (possibly) significantly improve his outside shooting.

    So pretty easy to see the difference between them. Younger, better, more physically gifted. That's where you see the NET difference widen. It considers age / height / length / athleticism for position / SOS. So comparing two small school players, JA's age, athleticism and production difference are going to clearly separate him from someone like Payne.

    Payne was roughly taken where he should be (mid 1st). Could argue a little early since most big school guys in the 0.9-1.00 range go more in the same area of the draft (pick 9-18 ish.) So you should have less confidence in a similarly rated small school player, all things being equal.
     
  6. Cavatt

    Cavatt Hall-of-Famer

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    I get he is younger and more athletic, that makes sense, but the difference between a guy who is out of the league and the #2 pick?

    I just don't trust the efficiency going against weak competition. I dunno. This makes me feel worse. I look at the 3pt percentage and the ft percentage and see that Ja is much better finishing around the rim at a younger age and that is enough to say he is most likely to be an allstar over RJ. I dunno
     
  7. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Worse? Why? The production and mix of potential necessary to go from an average 1st green to that yellow band is immense.

    Only 3 PG prospects since 2011 landed in that yellow band or better: Ball, Kyrie and Lillard.

    Plenty of small school guards in that time and none, other than Lillard, rank like Morant. He needs evaluated on other more traditional methods too but his profile is that of one of the 5 best PG’s since possession data has been available.

    It should make you feel better not worse that a model views these two guys this differently. Lots of average 1st round players wash out. It’s just the nature of the draft. Very few like Morant do. That’s all this is trying to assess, who is most likely to succeed based on a variety of factors. Does it mean they will? No....but it is far more confident in Morant than another small school 1st round pick like Payne.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019 at 7:25 PM
  8. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Hot take: Duke-FSU is more exciting than Duke-UVA, and we're gonna have an awesome game tonight.
     
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  9. 3 Ball...GOT IT

    3 Ball...GOT IT #CediSZN

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    I mentioned him awhile ago, but I still like Mfiondu Kabengele as a prospect, though he doesn't get much attention outside of the NBA probably because of the rotation FSU runs. Around this time last year he started to get some buzz, then FSU had a great tourney run.

    Great size + rim protection + shooting touch is hard to find at the spot he'd likely be drafted. He's not the best athlete though. He'll be almost 22 on draft night as a sophomore lol, so I think he should probably come out this year.

    He's fairly similar to Neemius Queeta from Utah State imo, who has gotten a little bit more attention this year.

    I know some like Terance Mann also, but he's never stuck out to me in the few games I've watched of FSU this year.
     
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  10. daytripper

    daytripper Miracle of Richfield

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    I might be standing out on a limb by myself on this one but if they don't end up with a top 3 pick I would strongly consider Bol Bol.
    They could probably even trade back a few slots while adding another draft asset and still pick Bol. The kid is a project and is still apparently growing. He was in HS out here at Mater Dei in SoCal until his senior year in HS and they are historically bad at developing any of their highly ranked kids. I do think he has the full package of 3 point shooting, blocks, etc to potentially be a star in the NBA but it's going to take several years of development for him to ever reach that level. The Cavs certainly have enough bigs on the current roster to basically redshirt Bol next season too esp if a priority is to keep that ATL pick. Outside of the top 3 (and I might be generous in even keeping Barrett in this tier but at this point might just be nitpicking a really good, young wing prospect) I just don't see much star potential in this draft. Bol could be one but it's going to take a few seasons of development. In the lottery of this draft, outside the top 3, I'd almost prefer they take a homerun swing rather than pick a safer roleplayer type. As a center in today's NBA, even at his peak might only give you 20-25 mins a night but he could really impact a game with blocks, altered shots, and the ability to hit 3's on the other end.
     
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  11. DeeThree

    DeeThree ZION!!!!

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    I wish you wrote more about Bol Bol's strengths and weaknesses.
     
  12. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Any sites track clutch stats for NCAA players?

    Grant Williams’ have to be off the charts.

    This is the 4th or 5th game I’ve watched where he’s just taken over and given UT a chance to win a game they probably shouldn’t.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019 at 5:56 PM
  13. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Here's his clutch-time record in conference play this year, as compiled by me just now:


    Today vs. Kentucky: 10 points (2/2 from the field, 5/5 from the line) in the last 5 min.

    3/9 @Auburn: 9 points (2/2 from the field, 5/5 from the line) in the last 5 min.

    2/27 @Ole Miss: 5 points (2/3 from the field, 1/2 from the line) in the last 5 min.

    2/23 @LSU: 12 points (3/3 from the field, 6/7 from the line) in the last 5 min and OT.

    1/23 @Vandy: 21 (6/8 from the field, 9/9 from the line) in the last 5 min and OT.

    1/19 vs. Alabama: 3 points (1/1 from the field, 1/2 from the line) in the last 5 min.


    Total: 60 points in 40 minutes on 93.2% true shooting :chuckle:
     
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  14. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Barrett in his 10 games prior to the ACC tournament:

    Steals: 3
    Blocks:4

    Barrett in the 3 ACC tournament games:

    Steals: 6
    Blocks: 3

    Is this what it looks like when he actually tries on defense?
     
  15. 3 Ball...GOT IT

    3 Ball...GOT IT #CediSZN

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    I’ve not watched any of their ACC tourney games yet, but does anyone know if they changed defensive coverages?

    With Bolden out they may have. Every game I’ve watched, they’ve basically funneled guys to the rim vs Bolden and DeLauerier. It’s hard to get a good read on Barrett’s perimeter D at times because of it... on one hand he gives up after one slide when guarding the ball, while on the other I think that’s what he’s being told to do somewhat. Would imagine that’d affect his counting stats some if they changed the way they’re guarding the perimeter now after Bolden’s injury
     

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