2019 NBA Draft

[daytripper]

I wish you wrote more about Bol Bol's strengths and weaknesses.

At this point it's mostly projection so his numbers are not going to jump off the page for the analytic draftnik. The kid is still growing and from what I understand could still add another 2" before he's done. Currently he's 7'-2" and 240. Obviously like Embiid he is also dealing with the injury which in this case ended his season at Oregon. He did average 21/10/3 in his 9 starts against quality opponents while shooting 52% from the 3.
Before the injury, I personally liked him better than Bamba who was selected #6 last year in a deeper draft. Maybe that's based more off the fact I had a chance to watch him a few times in person. He's more of a finesse player on offense and can block and alter shots defensively. Of course the Magic are basically 'redshirting' Bamba which would likely be the case with Bol too esp with the injury.
All I can say is I believe the kid has huge upside but on the downside could also be one who plays with minute restrictions throughout his career. I'm personally not as high on alot of these kids in the 4-8 area of this draft so just throwing him out there as an alternative if they don't luck out with the lottery balls.

 

[Nathan S]

24 points for Goga today, including the dagger 3. He's showing no lingering effects from that ankle injury. Nice elevation on the alley-oop:

 

[I'mWithDan]

Markus Howard vs Ja Morant in round 1.

Committee put my two guys in a death match.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

My top3:

1.Zion
2.Culver
3.Morant

 

[I'mWithDan]

My top3:

1.Zion
2.Culver
3.Morant

I like Culver and would probably have him in my top 4/5 (5th), just because of his floor (and the relative uncertainty in that group of players) but the only thing that gives you pause about him specifically is his shooting profile is not one of someone who typically has a ton of additional shooting potential. And if he doesn’t have a ton of shooting potential, what is he?

Guys that roughly fall in to his 30/70 shooting band, on lower 3PT/higher FT volume tend to only moderately improve as shooters. And a moderately better shooting Culver, to me, wouldn’t be worth passing on a point forward like Barrett, warts and all.

Barrett aside, what specifically would make you rank Culver ahead of Morant? He strikes me (Culver) as just the fairy generic 3&D wing and profiles exactly the same way. He’s like a younger, slightly worse version of Mikal Bridges. The age difference probably gets Culver drafted sooner but he’s just not exceptional at any one skill. Just pretty good at a lot.

The one reason I just don’t think you can take him that high (Top 3) is his dribbling really craters his upside for me, if you think he’s a wing and not a small ball 4 (he’s been rumored to be more in the 6’8” range). He’s not Cam but he’s just not very good at all dribbling against pressure and all the really valuable wing guys (Save Klay) are plus players putting the ball on the floor or in Klay’s case, lights out shooters. Culver is neither.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Thought of this earlier, but Culver reminds me so much of Jayson Tatum as a prospect... has a LOT of the same concerns that Tatum had at Duke. Heavy iso-game out of the mid range with plenty of 3PT shooting ?s, plus solid defense with good tools.

Obviously the jump Tatum made as a shooter isn’t something you should expect from Culver, but I like him for a lot of the same reasons I liked Tatum. He was clearly the #2 guy in that draft to me after Fultz.

Other major differences is that Tatum was a year younger as a prospect, plus some physical stuff. I feel like Tatum moves a little bit better despite being a tad bigger as well.

Just surprised I’ve not seen that comparison before.

 

[Nathan S]

Thought of this earlier, but Culver reminds me so much of Jayson Tatum as a prospect... has a LOT of the same concerns that Tatum had at Duke. Heavy iso-game out of the mid range with plenty of 3PT shooting ?s, plus solid defense with good tools.

Obviously the jump Tatum made as a shooter isn’t something you should expect from Culver, but I like him for a lot of the same reasons I liked Tatum. He was clearly the #2 guy in that draft to me after Fultz.

Other major differences is that Tatum was a year younger as a prospect, plus some physical stuff. I feel like Tatum moves a little bit better despite being a tad bigger as well.

Just surprised I’ve not seen that comparison before.

I think Culver's stock is pulled down, perhaps wrongly, by the fact that he shot 25% from 3 in conference play. He'd probably be viewed more favorably if he'd started off shooting ~25% and then pulled his percentage up as the season went on. Another plus is that he has made a very respectable number of unassisted 3's, at least 21 on the season according to thestepien. Big difference between shooting 32% from deep on exclusively catch-and-shoot attempts and shooting 32% from deep on higher degree of difficulty shots.

His free throw percentage, though, is a legitimate gripe. He's really tiptoeing on the line of respectability there. Tatum was an 85% foul shooter in college...even Kawhi, everyone's favorite example of a guy who improved meteorically as a shooter, shot 74.4% from the line for his college career (75.9% as a sophomore). Culver's sitting at 68.2% (70.4% as a sophomore). That jumpshot is gonna be under a microscope in workouts.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I like Culver and would probably have him in my top 4/5 (5th), just because of his floor (and the relative uncertainty in that group of players) but the only thing that gives you pause about him specifically is his shooting profile is not one of someone who typically has a ton of additional shooting potential. And if he doesn’t have a ton of shooting potential, what is he?

Guys that roughly fall in to his 30/70 shooting band, on lower 3PT/higher FT volume tend to only moderately improve as shooters. And a moderately better shooting Culver, to me, wouldn’t be worth passing on a point forward like Barrett, warts and all.

Barrett aside, what specifically would make you rank Culver ahead of Morant? He strikes me (Culver) as just the fairy generic 3&D wing and profiles exactly the same way. He’s like a younger, slightly worse version of Mikal Bridges. The age difference probably gets Culver drafted sooner but he’s just not exceptional at any one skill. Just pretty good at a lot.

The one reason I just don’t think you can take him that high (Top 3) is his dribbling really craters his upside for me, if you think he’s a wing and not a small ball 4 (he’s been rumored to be more in the 6’8” range). He’s not Cam but he’s just not very good at all dribbling against pressure and all the really valuable wing guys (Save Klay) are plus players putting the ball on the floor or in Klay’s case, lights out shooters. Culver is neither.

What is he if he doesn't improve as a shooter?

Jimmy Butlerish?

I don't think that he is comparable to Mikal at all.

I like Culver for a bunch of reasons. Putting his shooting numbers a side, I like his strides and how quickly he can get to the rim. I believe he will improve as a ball handler.

I like how good of a finisher he is with either hand. That, along with his length is a good recipe at the next level.

I think he is raw, but in a sense that he is great room for improvement. I think he is still growing. He has tremendous frame to add muscle and I just believe he has a good package to build on.

Part of my ranking also takes the team into consideration.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think Culver's stock is pulled down, perhaps wrongly, by the fact that he shot 25% from 3 in conference play. He'd probably be viewed more favorably if he'd started off shooting ~25% and then pulled his percentage up as the season went on. Another plus is that he has made a very respectable number of unassisted 3's, at least 21 on the season according to thestepien. Big difference between shooting 32% from deep on exclusively catch-and-shoot attempts and shooting 32% from deep on higher degree of difficulty shots.

His free throw percentage, though, is a legitimate gripe. He's really tiptoeing on the line of respectability there. Tatum was an 85% foul shooter in college...even Kawhi, everyone's favorite example of a guy who improved meteorically as a shooter, shot 74.4% from the line for his college career (75.9% as a sophomore). Culver's sitting at 68.2% (70.4% as a sophomore). That jumpshot is gonna be under a microscope in workouts.

EDIT: For anyone looking for this shooting potential post, I'll follow up with a more interesting revision.

I need to clean a few things up but there are some pretty interesting correlations to what is a relatively easy calculation to make.

 

[I'mWithDan]

What is he if he doesn't improve as a shooter?

Jimmy Butlerish?

I don't think that he is comparable to Mikal at all.

I like Culver for a bunch of reasons. Putting his shooting numbers a side, I like his strides and how quickly he can get to the rim. I believe he will improve as a ball handler.

I like how good of a finisher he is with either hand. That, along with his length is a good recipe at the next level.

I think he is raw, but in a sense that he is great room for improvement. I think he is still growing. He has tremendous frame to add muscle and I just believe he has a good package to build on.

Part of my ranking also takes the team into consideration.

I'm speaking to NBA level role. Defender, shooter, good 2-way wing. There's differences between them but what can they realistically do in the NBA.....I'd bet it is probably the same thing.

I'm sure his total AST numbers will at some point be mentioned but he's a 1.3 AST/TO player, which probably speaks to how sloppy he can be with the ball. He's like Barrett, without Barrett's ability to dribble (on what appears to be an NBA level for a SF). I get he's a better defender than RJ but I'm speaking to how limited his offensive ceiling may be. Minus dribbling skills, Culver just doesn't have a lot of room for growth, in a majority of prospect cases. So if that is something you think he's not given enough credit for, he could certainly be far better than I think he will.

Butler is the go to standard Jack of all trades" best case, for guys like Culver but Jimmy did a handful of things really well that Culver does not.

1. He drew more fouls
2. He was a better FT shooter on more attempts (78%)
3. He had a great TO per 100 number (2.5)
4. He generated BLK/STL per foul at a 30% higher rate
5. He generated BLK/STL/OREB per foul at nearly 2x.
6. A lower volume but far more efficient scorer on a PPFG basis.

How they generate value is different......I guess is what I am saying. Butler's overall impact was drug down by mainly one thing......below average shot attempts per 100 (17.5). Which makes sense for a "Jack of all trades" guy.

Culver is trying to be framed as a "Jack of all trades" while, for one college season, shooting 26 times per 100. Maybe that's what his team needs but he's shooting like he's trying to be a #1 option and not doing very well at it, in addition to being turnover prone. It's a lot tougher to envision that type of player, sans dribbling skill, sans possibly shooting potential, bucking a prospect profile trend.

I'm really not overly negative about Culver, if it sounds like it. I think he's going to be a solid NBA player but you just cannot take someone like him in the top 2 IMO. That was my gripe here. Ignore the players for a second.......if you pit a 1.2 rated PG vs. a 0.9 SG and say, how many times out of 100 will the SG be the best player......it's just not a lot, if you're being conservative. It can certainly happen, I just don't think it's a player like Culver that would prove that to be wrong. For the record, I also don't think it is someone like DeAndre Hunter either. It's, to me, someone more like Talen Horton-Tucker....who just has more projectable NBA ISO skills and is still really young. Would I take him over Culver? Probably not but that is the type of player more likely to exceed his profile.

My opinion on Culver is a lot, a lot more positive as a 3/4 combo player.....because especially at the 4, assuming he is actually 6'8", his straight line dribbling is a lot more effective. As a 2 or even a full time 3? Can you actually envision him scoring against good NBA wings? And if so? How? I just am curious what a more detailed look at him is as an ISO player is.

 

[Nathan S]

Worth noting when talking about Butler that he was a genuinely underwhelming prospect. You can argue that he deserved to be drafted in the teens or *maybe* in the late lottery, but no matter how hard you look he simply didn't have the profile of a potential superstar wing coming out of college. He's one of the rare few who went from ordinary in college to spectacular in the NBA.

 

[Smooth]

I actually brought up the Jimmy Butler comparison for Culver earlier in the year, based on their per game averages in school, with the how they operate, being a multi-dimensional wing and being an okay shooter... Like @I'mWithDan mentioned, Butler wasn't relied upon offensively to the extent Culver has been and you can also see the difference in eras with the 3PA vs. FTr in their profiles..

Now, that's not to say I think Culver will be as good but Butler is a similar profile athlete and skill wise as Culver and that would be a good player for him to model his game after.. Neither have the burst laterally so they have to rely on being crafty and using their strength to create space offensively...

Problem I have with Culver is I just don't see anything that stands out... Sure he is pretty versatile and does have some good advanced defensive stats (but is it more Culver or Texas Tech?) but if you're drafting him in the top-5, you have to be pretty confident he'll be able to increase his efficiency at the next level... The bizarre thing is that he improved his free throw % and fg % but his 3p% dropped pretty dramatically in same volume as last year...

I think the attitude surrounding Culver is also more due to the huge drop-off after the top-3 and if you're looking at him as a top-5 option, with so much variability after the top-3, you're feeling a little bit disappointed with what a top-5 pick is expected to be and just missing out on the elite tier..

I have no doubt Culver will be a good player at the next level but will he be role player/rotational good or upper level starter good?

To me, if I'm betting on a wing to take the jump at the next level, I feel more comfortable betting on Nickeil Alexander-Walker...

 

[Nathan S]

Alpha Diallo's season is over with his team's loss yesterday in the NIT. I continue to think he's a potentially interesting option with the Rockets' pick if he declares. Big wing who led the Big East in rebounding this year and ranked 4th in steals, so needless to say he has the potential to be a very good defender at the NBA level. Good but not great pass/shoot/dribble skills that may look a little better in a glue-guy role at the NBA level than they did in a #1-option role on a talent starved Providence team.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

From Chris Fedor’s Q&A today:

“Along those lines, Kevin Porter Jr. won't be overlooked. A top 50 player in the 2018 class, Porter was suspended for a violation of team rules. Some of the Cavs' early intel points to that not being a huge red flag. Now that USC's season is over, they will devote plenty of resources to getting those questions answered.”

I apologize in advance that I’m going to keep beating this drum all the way up to the draft lmao.... but his on-court activity level is just not consistent with the perception he’s given that he doesn’t care. The USC program is a shitshow and I’m going to continue to discount the idea that he’s a bad locker room guy until there’s more evidence reported or discussed. USC just had a 2018 top 100 recruit transfer yesterday because he wasn’t seeing the floor. Charles OBannon was a McDonalds All American that never plays. And that’s not even to mention all the on court stuff you see and FBI bs too.

Btw I didn’t have time to post it, but ESPN dropped a new mock yesterday and Porter was one of the biggest movers, up to #12 I believe.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Alpha Diallo's season is over with his team's loss yesterday in the NIT. I continue to think he's a potentially interesting option with the Rockets' pick if he declares. Big wing who led the Big East in rebounding this year and ranked 4th in steals, so needless to say he has the potential to be a very good defender at the NBA level. Good but not great pass/shoot/dribble skills that may look a little better in a glue-guy role at the NBA level than they did in a #1-option role on a talent starved Providence team.

His shooting really fell off second half I think. His mechanics are broken and he wasn’t the best shooter previously I don’t think, so it’s not too surprising. Has a nice statistical profile, but teams are definitely going to tell him to go back. If he entered this year I’d bet on him going undrafted. Really just a defender to me, but doesn’t have the strength/size to check bigger wings.

Will always be solid on models with the stocks and his size.