2019 NBA Draft

[ajz20]

Zion is def improving. Too bad the rest of the class is suspect at best. Some good players but my goodness, there could be a huge drop off fast. Cavs are going to need a ton of luck on lottery night. I would def take RJ right now at 2. At 3 little or reddish, but not thrilled about either guy even though Little still has some major upside.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Zion is def improving. Too bad the rest of the class is suspect at best. Some good players but my goodness, there could be a huge drop off fast. Cavs are going to need a ton of luck on lottery night. I would def take RJ right now at 2. At 3 little or reddish, but not thrilled about either guy even though Little still has some major upside.

I think RJ and Zion are locks to go top 2........I'd struggle to take Little or Reddish in the top 5.

Maybe you could talk me in to Cam because he's in a terrible development situation for what he needs but Little has just shown me next to nothing. I think he has been the most disappointing player, based on the arc his prospect outcomes were trending in the 18 months prior to college.

Morant seems like the clear #3, at this point......if you are looking for a blend of production, potential and athleticism.

It's a strange draft, through half a season, where I would be really surprised if the first 3 picks were't Zion, RJ, Morant......regardless of team needs. Those seem like the more clear cut selections in this draft.....as players have been injured or underperformed.

Long way from the draft though. Little is going to get thrust in to a starting role with an injury......so everyone will get an extended look at him under a heavier minute load.

 

[I'mWithDan]

In the cluster of potential lottery guys, there are two interesting prospects emerging. The two guys outlined in red......that is Cassisus Winston and Nickeil Alexander Walker. Both are interesting guys, especially Winston......who played an awesome game last night against Edwards. I don't know how to view either of these guys at this point but many models are starting to like both.....and they both are starting to separate in to that tier with more highly thought of prospects and doing so against major competition. More just food for thought. I don't have any riveting revelations on either.

Also, Morant is just in outer space right now......he's a tick higher than an ultra efficient offensive player like Edwards but has NBA size and athleticism. Crazy. If he sticks there, Id imagine many scouts will have him #2 on their board over RJ.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Winston reminds me of Lowry a bit.

 

[Nathan S]

I haven't been including Winston in my rankings because I think he's generally considered too undersized and unathletic to be a viable prospect...he checks in at +3.8 though (+4.9 offense, -1.1 defense).

As for Morant, there isn't anyone I have clearly ahead of him other than Zion, but how much of his crazy volume/efficiency can be attributed to weak strength of schedule? According to KenPom, Murray State ranks 312th out of 353 schools in strength of schedule so far, and I'm not sure that even accounts for the DII opponents they faced.

Morant is interesting because of his combination of applied athleticism, shooting ability, and point guard ability...I'm reasonably convinced that he's the real deal athletically, but I feel much less confident in his potential to develop a reliable NBA-range jumpshot or run an efficient NBA offense. If just one of those things was a questionmark I'd probably pencil him in for a top-3 pick, but since both are questionmarks he seems like too much of a longshot to reach his ceiling.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Anyone else feel like PGs are subject to group-think more than any other position?

There's a ton of undersized PGs, but guys like Winston aren't even considered, while others are unanimously. Winston's statistical profile should get too difficult to ignore I'd think. Plus MSU will probably make a run in March.

Another example... Ponds was getting hype last year, and was seen as a surefire first rounder, especially if he improved his shooting. He's done that, but you don't hear much about him.

When Garland went down, almost immediately Tre Jones was suddenly considered a possible 20 guy - and was a fringe guy prior to that. Of course his play has been great and he was very visible on that team, but the timing was interesting there too to me.

On Morant, I'm totally lost with him and probably will continue to be up to the draft. I have a feeling I'll end up putting too much weight on the poor strength of schedule for starters lol. While you can make a case for just about anyone as the #3 guy right now, I almost get the sense he's being thrusted up boards just as the de-facto top PG with Garland now hurt. I can buy him as an upside play, but he still has a ton of issues. He's one of the worst defensive prospects this year from what I've seen and he's a suspect shooter... plus he's got size issues of his own.

Maybe if his movement up boards coincided with a continual improvement of his issues over the season I'd get behind it... but he's been shooting worse and still turning the ball over like crazy against poor competition of late.

 

[Nathan S]

Anyone else feel like PGs are subject to group-think more than any other position?

There's a ton of undersized PGs, but guys like Winston aren't even considered, while others are unanimously. Winston's statistical profile should get too difficult to ignore I'd think. Plus MSU will probably make a run in March.

Another example... Ponds was getting hype last year, and was seen as a surefire first rounder, especially if he improved his shooting. He's done that, but you don't hear much about him.

When Garland went down, almost immediately Tre Jones was suddenly considered a possible 20 guy - and was a fringe guy prior to that. Of course his play has been great and he was very visible on that team, but the timing was interesting there too to me.

On Morant, I'm totally lost with him and probably will continue to be up to the draft. I have a feeling I'll end up putting too much weight on the poor strength of schedule for starters lol. While you can make a case for just about anyone as the #3 guy right now, I almost get the sense he's being thrusted up boards just as the de-facto top PG with Garland now hurt. I can buy him as an upside play, but he still has a ton of issues. He's one of the worst defensive prospects this year from what I've seen and he's a suspect shooter... plus he's got size issues of his own.

Maybe if his movement up boards coincided with a continual improvement of his issues over the season I'd get behind it... but he's been shooting worse and still turning the ball over like crazy against poor competition of late.

I think people generally underrate the importance of turnovers in evaluating NCAA prospects. If a player is unusually turnover-prone against college defenses, he simply can't spend much time handling the ball against NBA defenses, no matter how good he is at putting it in the basket, and that majorly limits offensive upside. I don't know if Morant qualifies as unusually turnover-prone given his enormous usage rate, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on as much as his shooting, IMO.

 

[Cavatt]

I think people generally underrate the importance of turnovers in evaluating NCAA prospects. If a player is unusually turnover-prone against college defenses, he simply can't spend much time handling the ball against NBA defenses, no matter how good he is at putting it in the basket, and that majorly limits offensive upside. I don't know if Morant qualifies as unusually turnover-prone given his enormous usage rate, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on as much as his shooting, IMO.

Aren't turnovers the category Rookie improve on the most? Do you have historical data on this?

 

[Nathan S]

Aren't turnovers the category Rookie improve on the most? Do you have historical data on this?

I'm intending this to be more of a qualitative argument, though college assist:TO ratio is strongly predictive of NBA success statistically. Young NBA players may improve a lot in the turnovers category, but I think this is often misleading...in most cases they're improving because they're going from a #1 option role in college to a much more limited role in the NBA. Sexton's turnover rate is lower than it was in college, for instance, but if we actually tried to run our offense through him like Alabama did, it would go through the roof. For the most part, guys who go on to become NBA #1 options seem to be fantastic ballhandlers (for their age and position) in college with excellent awareness. Players who don't have those characteristics just get feasted on when they're asked to create against an NBA defense.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think people generally underrate the importance of turnovers in evaluating NCAA prospects. If a player is unusually turnover-prone against college defenses, he simply can't spend much time handling the ball against NBA defenses, no matter how good he is at putting it in the basket, and that majorly limits offensive upside. I don't know if Morant qualifies as unusually turnover-prone given his enormous usage rate, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on as much as his shooting, IMO.

Turnover Rate / USG - Young and Morant are in the same ballpark. Morant's is slightly worse but he's also playing with less talent.

Young's TOV number (per 100) has dropped in the NBA.....with the freedom of movement and increased ability for teammates to get open. I'd imagine Ja will be similar.

I think much of Morant's ceiling will be determined by his athletic measurements. He's going to produce at a level that is crazy, regardless of competition.....and if he can pair NBA measurables with that production, I'm not sure how he's not a top 3 pick as the top of this draft has weakened.

 

[Nathan S]

Turnover Rate / USG - Young and Morant are in the same ballpark. Morant's is slightly worse but he's also playing with less talent.

Young's TOV number (per 100) has dropped in the NBA.....with the freedom of movement and increased ability for teammates to get open. I'd imagine Ja will be similar.

I think much of Morant's ceiling will be determined by his athletic measurements. He's going to produce at a level that is crazy, regardless of competition.....and if he can pair NBA measurables with that production, I'm not sure how he's not a top 3 pick as the top of this draft has weakened.

Again...I think Young's turnover rate is down mainly because his role is much smaller. In college he was scoring nearly as much as Oklahoma's other starters combined. In the NBA, his scoring rate is down significantly...behind not only Doncic, but also fellow rookies like JJJ, Ayton, Bagley, and Sexton who were inferior pure scorers at the college level.

And to be clear, I realize that Young and Morant's turnover rates are not completely out of proportion with their usage rates, so I wouldn't red flag them based on that alone. But put those turnovers in context for Morant, e.g. 10 turnovers against Eastern Kentucky in his last game, and that's not something you can easily sweep under the rug. Young has a solid excuse in that he faced a top-5 strength of schedule in college...Morant has no such excuse for his sloppiness.

All that said, I'd still consider Morant at #3 because of that rare combination of athleticism, shooting potential and point guard potential, and the fact that there aren't any players other than Zion and RJ who look like typical high-lottery picks. But he's one of a dozen imperfect options.

 

[Nathan S]

Goga had another pretty solid game today, accumulating 8 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks before fouling out. Makes the highlight video at 0:15, outmuscling ex-NBA center Tarik Black for an offensive rebound and kicking out to Earl Clark for 3, at 0:35 when he throws down a huge dunk in the pick&roll with Norris Cole, at 1:35 when he makes a midrange jumper, and at 1:50 when he fouls out and hangs his head

In a draft that's starved for frontcourt players, he has a ton of potential to rise.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Again...I think Young's turnover rate is down mainly because his role is much smaller. In college he was scoring nearly as much as Oklahoma's other starters combined. In the NBA, his scoring rate is down significantly...behind not only Doncic, but also fellow rookies like JJJ, Ayton, Bagley, and Sexton who were inferior pure scorers at the college level.

And to be clear, I realize that Young and Morant's turnover rates are not completely out of proportion with their usage rates, so I wouldn't red flag them based on that alone. But put those turnovers in context for Morant, e.g. 10 turnovers against Eastern Kentucky in his last game, and that's not something you can easily sweep under the rug. Young has a solid excuse in that he faced a top-5 strength of schedule in college...Morant has no such excuse for his sloppiness.

All that said, I'd still consider Morant at #3 because of that rare combination of athleticism, shooting potential and point guard potential, and the fact that there aren't any players other than Zion and RJ who look like typical high-lottery picks. But he's one of a dozen imperfect options.

Yes, I agree......he's not a perfect prospect but 2.5 AST/TO last season and he was slightly above 2 until EKU. He's had 20/68 TO's (29%) in two games....Prior to EKU, he ran a stretch of 8 games at a 10.4 AST/4 TO a game. His style isn't unlike Westbrook's...and when he gets off the tracks, it can be a total disaster. Most can look past the blowups though, especially for a young player who is asked to do everything on a rather talentless team.

If there's one thing that truly concerns me about Morant, it is wether he can realistically fill out his frame.

His FTR and rim finishing is what rockets his efficiency and I wonder if he can absorb NBA contact and stay healthy given where he's currently at physique wise. If he can't combat the physicality at the NBA level, I'd really worry about his TO concerns specifically......as getting bounced around is not going to mitigate his decision making or carelessness, it's going to make it noticeably worse. It will also limit his effectiveness in the half court, which is also a mild concern.

 

[Nathan S]

Yes, I agree......he's not a perfect prospect but 2.5 AST/TO last season and he was slightly above 2 until EKU. He's had 20/68 TO's (29%) in two games....Prior to EKU, he ran a stretch of 8 games at a 10.4 AST/4 TO a game. His style isn't unlike Westbrook's...and when he gets off the tracks, it can be a total disaster. Most can look past the blowups though, especially for a young player who is asked to do everything on a rather talentless team.

If there's one thing that truly concerns me about Morant, it is wether he can realistically fill out his frame.

His FTR and rim finishing is what rockets his efficiency and I wonder if he can absorb NBA contact and stay healthy given where he's currently at physique wise. If he can't combat the physicality at the NBA level, I'd really worry about his TO concerns specifically......as getting bounced around is not going to mitigate his decision making or carelessness, it's going to make it noticeably worse. It will also limit his effectiveness in the half court, which is also a mild concern.

Pretty much agree...as we've seen with Sexton, it's tough being a slasher/scorer in the NBA when you're on the smaller side and the other areas of your offensive game aren't fully developed yet. Morant doesn't have exactly the same strengths and weaknesses (I'd say he's a better passer than Sexton, while Sexton's a better shooter), but he has the same boom/bust outlook because his primary strength isn't a sure bet to translate.

 

[DeeThree]

I think RJ and Zion are locks to go top 2........I'd struggle to take Little or Reddish in the top 5.

Maybe you could talk me in to Cam because he's in a terrible development situation for what he needs but Little has just shown me next to nothing. I think he has been the most disappointing player, based on the arc his prospect outcomes were trending in the 18 months prior to college.

Morant seems like the clear #3, at this point......if you are looking for a blend of production, potential and athleticism.

It's a strange draft, through half a season, where I would be really surprised if the first 3 picks were't Zion, RJ, Morant......regardless of team needs. Those seem like the more clear cut selections in this draft.....as players have been injured or underperformed.

Long way from the draft though. Little is going to get thrust in to a starting role with an injury......so everyone will get an extended look at him under a heavier minute load.

What would you say is the top 4 and 5 after these 3 play7ers?