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2019 NBA Draft

Discussion in 'Trades, Free Agency, & the Draft' started by Nathan S, Jun 26, 2018.

  1. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Little is only a 1.5 BLK+STL per 36 guy though.

    It just doesn't really show up in the stat sheet at all.

    Cam is a 3.8 BLK+STL per 36.

    Oh god, I'm now in this thread pumping Cam. Someone help.
     
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  2. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    I feel like BLK+STL is a little misleading for Cam, because it's really all steals. He's blocked 5 shots all season, and I'd bet most of them were on the perimeter anyway.

    Of course, steals are valuable, and I'm fully confident in Cam being a good perimeter defender. I just think his defensive ceiling is fairly low for the same reason his offensive ceiling is fairly low...he just doesn't make many plays in the paint at all, and I don't think he has the right mental makeup to improve substantially in that area.

    EDIT: minor thing, but Cam's actually averaging 3.6 STL+BLK per 36, and Nas is averaging 2.1. So the gap there isn't quite as big as you said.
     
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  3. 3 Ball...GOT IT

    3 Ball...GOT IT #CediSZN

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    All of the above. He's really the full package for NCAA defense. Would say his weak-side help sticks out the most as far as creating stocks, but he's really just all over the court for them. I wouldn't call their perimeter defense very good, so he has a lot of help opportunities as well.

    His writing just reeks of arrogance to me lol. Which is hilarious considering how much of a crapshoot drafting really is. Unfortunately it seems like alot of people are going over the top now in trying to be the first to really like a guy, when really it doesn't even matter whatsoever.

    Duke's defensive strategy is somewhat odd though on the perimeter. It almost looks like at times (especially with RJ) that they want to give up middle driving lanes. When a screen is coming they almost always try to get on the side of the ball handler and force him the other direction - basically giving a free lane inside. And they're doing it on all pick and rolls, they're not just icing sideline ones. Honestly I think it's a pretty good strategy with their team... it forces quick decisions on drives by ball handlers and produces a lot of turnovers actually. They're like 3rd in the country in transition points I believe.

    But anyways my point is that it takes the perimeter guys out of the play alot of time. Reddish's high steal and low block rates could be a product of that strategy.

    And then you have Zion who looks like he's just letting guys dribble right past him on purpose, just to chasedown block them from behind like twice a game lmao. The guy is nuts.
     
  4. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    But...do you not get the same vibes I'm getting about Reddish's mentality? He's one of those 6'8" guys who on paper should be a perfect modern, positionless player, but he just looks weak and uncomfortable and tentative whenever he's in traffic. The total opposite of Clarke, who's the same size.
     
  5. 3 Ball...GOT IT

    3 Ball...GOT IT #CediSZN

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    It's so hard for me to say with the way that they defend. I'd consider him to have been about as average as you can be defensively so far. I do think that a lot of the mentality stuff with him is quite overblown. But I do agree with your point on making an impact on the interior. He's just not strong enough to affect any bigs inside for one. He's also not an explosive athlete at all, which is probably a big reasoning for the low block rate. I wouldn't put it on mentality though.
     
  6. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    What about his low rebound rate? He's 6'8", 218 pounds, but somehow hasn't had a 5-rebound game in almost 2 months? You can say Duke's frontcourt has been hogging all the rebounds, but Reddish lags even relative to Duke's other perimeter players, all of whom are smaller than him. He's just...soft.
     
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  7. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Ah yes, it looks like I had not gotten that last game in for Cam, which dropped it slightly.

    For Little, I entered something wrong in the spreadsheet for him......as his .059 per minutes rate does equal 2.1.......I think I might have accidentally left one of the categories out in his cell.

    It is closer but still.......Cam's rate is more than 40% higher and he's playing more minutes, which makes it a bit more impressive with how that curve tends to decline as minutes increase.

    I'm just of the belief that blocks just do not matter for great perimeter defenders....

    Career blocks per game

    Tony Allen - 0.4
    Victor Oladipo - 0.5
    Jimmy Butler - 0.5
    Paul George - 0.5
    Andre Igoudala - 0.5
    Klay Thompson - 0.5
    Kawhi Leonard - 0.7
    Andre Roberson - 0.7
    Danny Green - 0.8
    LeBron James - 0.8
    Rovert Covington - 0.8

    Do you just think even moderately better rim protection is more valuable for a true wing? Can you quantify the worth of 15-20 blocked shots over the course of an 82 game season?

    At the NBA level, very few wings block shots at a higher rate than 0.5 on a per game basis.....and if they do, it is rare that someone approaches even 0.8......if you are talking all defense wing defenders. And LeBron isn't even 0.8 on a per 36 basis.

    The only exception, right now, is Durant at 1.1 for his career......but he's such an outlier he may not be worth mentioning.

    Blocking shots for wing defenders is pretty much a skill only one guy has at an elite level (Durant)......everyone else is in the range Cam is in.

    EDIT: I left Giannis off here......as he's an alien and really not worth discussing.

    I don't like Cam as a prospect but I really don't understand why you would need him to block more shots when looking at the wing defenders above. Aren't steals more valuable anyway? As they are far more likely to lead to transition offense?
     
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  8. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    That is one of the reasons I find him so confounding as a prospect.

    He has incredible defensive instincts on the ball......he also has great feet, range and he produces steals at a crazy rate.....but I also am like you and think he's soft as shit.

    I'm trying to remember another player who was this talented AND productive as a defender but seemed to just not have the mentality for it? It honestly might be Durant.

    Here is a chart to show just how far out there both Cam and Zion are. Ponds is the lower red dot in this red quadrant.

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    I don't care about blocks for their own sake...I'm bringing them up in an attempt to put evidence behind my claim that Reddish lacks the toughness characteristic of great NBA defenders. Below are the college blocks/rebounds per 40 for those players:

    Tony Allen - 7.0, 1.0
    Victor Oladipo - 8.4, 0.9
    Jimmy Butler - 7.4, 0.6
    Paul George - 7.9, 1.1
    Andre Igoudala - 10.4, 0.7
    Klay Thompson - 5.6, 0.9
    Kawhi Leonard - 12.8, 0.8
    Andre Roberson - 14.1, 2.0
    Danny Green - 8.2, 2.1
    Rovert Covington - 9.9, 1.7

    Cam Reddish - 5.0, 0.6
    Nas Little - 9.0, 1.1

    To be clear, I do Reddish will be a solid defender at the NBA level, especially in a role where he uses his quick feet and anticipation to contain smaller offensive players. He just sort of rubs me the wrong way because he seems to play smaller than his listed size in a lot of situations, whereas most elite defenders do the opposite.

    And I do think Little's middling steal rate is a pretty major issue. Don't really understand it either...he seems like he should be getting a lot of steals, but he just doesn't.

    For what it's worth, my draft rater has both of them at -0.1 defensively, basically a wash.
     
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  10. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Just to clarify, I don't doubt guys block shots at the college level but for wing players and not true rim protectors, it just doesn't seem like a statistic that tends to translate in meaningful ways from college to the NBA.

    NBA players are just such quick and tough shot takers that it's really difficult to block shots in general, even tougher for guys who mainly defend in space. Certainly there are freakish players like Giannis and Durant who rack them up on reach alone but even truly elite defenders like Allen or George or Iggy rarely block shots at the NBA level.

    I was just trying to point out that it isn't really a stat that amounts to a whole lot for guys who will defend a majority of the time away from the rim. I do agree with you that Cam should have more blocks given his physical profile but I also haven't seen how many block opportunities he's even had. Maybe he floats too much on the perimeter or maybe he just doesn't have many opportunities to block shots, based on the player types he is guarding. I honestly have no clue.
     
  11. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Like I said, I don't care about blocks for their own sake...my concern is not that Reddish will be a poor shot blocker in the NBA, because I agree that doesn't matter much at all.

    I'm just saying he's a well-put-together 6'8" with a 7'0" wingspan, and a 8'10" standing reach...why does the defensive half of his stat sheet look like it belongs to a point guard? It's weird...
     
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  12. DeeThree

    DeeThree Michael Porter Jr or Trey Young!

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    OK thanks for answering the question.
     
  13. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    Probably need something like player proximity to the rim on shot attempts against Duke.

    It could be that he's lazy and doesn't hustle or it could be that 75%-80 of the time, he's 15-20 feet away from the basket when a shot goes up. If he's guarding mainly perimeter players with off-ball gravity, that could be why he has the raw box score of a PG on defense.

    There's also strategic considerations here from an X's and O's standpoint.......Duke may coach that perimeter players are to always funnel their man to a certain area, with the intent of Zion, Bolden or White having the help side shot blocking defensive assignment at the rim. That would then transfer the offensive player on the weak side block area to the on ball defender.....or at least that is one popular coverage game.

    There's just a lot to unpack on individual defensive categories. I don't know with Reddish......my best bet (to get any sort of answer) would be asking around to see if anyone out there even charts things like block opportunities, proximity on shot attempts, etc. on defense. I'd imagine there's no publicly available data on any of that....if it even exists.

    He is a very weird prospect on defense......because typically passive or soft players don't produce ANY positive metrics on defense......and he produces steals at an incredibly high level and is also a proficient 1-on-1 on ball defender.
     
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  14. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Yup...I'll be the first to admit that the defensive role a player's slotted into has a huge effect on his defensive stats, rendering them pretty unreliable. I'm just trying to connect the dots. To give one more piece of evidence, though, his offensive rebound rate is even more of an outlier than his overall rebound rate...it's about half that of any other Duke player. You could say that again, with his role, he just hardly ever ventures inside the 3-point line. But I really think he's just not naturally comfortable mixing it up physically.

    After searching sports-reference, is seems like there's no historical precedent at all for a forward averaging 2+ steals per game yet so few rebounds and blocks. With criteria steals over 1.6 (Reddish is at 2.0), rebounds under 4.0 (Reddish is at 2.9) and blocks under 0.7 (Reddish is at 0.4) there are no results at all from recent years.
     
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  15. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    @3 Ball...GOT IT , your guy Yovel Zoosman just had the best game of his young career with 15 points on perfect shooting, 6 boards, 2 steals, and a block in an upset win over CSKA. He and Goga (11 points, 4 boards, 4 blocks today) are attempting to breathe some life into this year's international class.
     
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