2019 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

Goga's having another great game so far in his second Euroleague appearance, with 13 points, 3 boards, and 2 blocks at halftime. There's little precedent for a teenage big contributing at a high level in Euroleague (other than Doncic, if you count him as a big). Off the top of my head...

-Valanciunas was 18 years old for his only Euroleague season, in which he averaged 7.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 0.7 blocks per game.

-Bargnani averaged 3.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 0.2 blocks per game in his age-19 season.

-Vesely averaged 8.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 0.5 blocks per game in his age-19 season.

Did I miss anyone?

EDIT: He finished with 23 points, 8 boards, and 2 blocks. The 23 points were a game high in a matchup that featured ex-NBA players Norris Cole, Earl Clark, Mike James, and Mindaugas Kuzminskas as well as Cavs prospect Arturas Gudaitis.

Through two games he's now averaging 20 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

Update on this post...here are per-40 stats, to adjust for the fact that Goga's getting more playing time than these other guys. Also added Zizic and Saric, who were reasonably productive in Euroleague at a slightly older age.


Goga Bitadze (age 19): 24.1 points (67% true shooting), 11.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 5.3 blocks, 1.2 turnovers, 6.9 fouls

Jonas Valanciunas(age 18): 19.9 points (75% true shooting), 15.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 3.6 turnovers, 7.9 fouls

Andrea Bargnani (age 19): 16.2 points (57% true shooting), 9.2 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.8 turnovers, 6.3 fouls

Jan Vesely (age 19): 13.5 points (62% true shooting), 7.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 6.8 fouls

Ante Zizic (age 20): 16.5 points (66% true shooting), 12.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 3.6 fouls

Dario Saric (age 20): 16.2 points (53% true shooting), 10.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.1 turnovers, 3.3 fouls


Based on this, Goga has really separated himself from the pack in two places.

First, he's been extremely prolific and efficient offensively. The volume, especially playing for a poor team, is not too surprising...but the fact that he's been scoring efficiently and not turning it over is impressive given his very large offensive role.

Second, he's been an absurdly prolific shot blocker. He's actually blocking shots at a higher rate than all of the other guys on this list combined. This is where it's especially important not to pigeonhole him as "just another Euro big"...he's a fantastic athlete for his size with a sky-high defensive ceiling.

If he keeps producing at or near his current level in those areas (and especially if he continues to make occasional threes), I'd have no problem taking him top-5.

 

[CavsFTW]

Cam Reddish's 0.361 FG% is literally the Bird Box challenge, but without the blindfold.

 

[STAT]

Fun win for Duke over Florida State. With Zion out following the eye injury, it was a nice showcase for RJ and Cam.

RJ answered the bell you want a #1 guy to. He had a tough FT miss that left them down one with under 3 seconds to play, but he really carried the offense. (32 points on 10-19, 4-7 from 3, 8-9 FT).

Cam had some real problems down the stretch with a bad foul near the end of the shot clock giving them three free throws and the lead with 15 seconds left. He also had a terrible turnover with about a minute left where he just bobbled it out of bounds. But. He hit the go-ahead three to cap off a great shooting day. Hopefully, it helps his confidence going forward. (23 points on 9-15, 5-8 from 3).

 

[Nathan S]

Updated prospect rankings for this week. As always, they're color-coded according to Jackson Hoy's big board, so more mainstream guys are generally blue, green, and yellow, while sleepers are generally orange or red. I added an SOS column to provide more context for guys like Ponds and Morant, who've been extremely productive but have played an easy schedule. I also added interesting sleepers Winston, Diallo, and McGowen, so that now (barring an accidental oversight) these rankings include all major-conference players with a +2 or better overall rating. Finally, since the resolution is getting painfully bad on these screenshots, here's a link to a google sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z-4qMMuRcf9Svk7O2Ew2lzYwegAJy633cHxniyLIXkQ/edit?usp=sharing

 

[I'mWithDan]

Updated prospect rankings for this week. As always, they're color-coded according to Jackson Hoy's big board, so more mainstream guys are generally blue, green, and yellow, while sleepers are generally orange or red. I added an SOS column to provide more context for guys like Ponds and Morant, who've been extremely productive but have played an easy schedule. I also added interesting sleepers Winston, Diallo, and McGowen, so that now (barring an accidental oversight) these rankings include all major-conference players with a +2 or better overall rating. Finally, since the resolution is getting painfully bad on these screenshots, here's a link to a google sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z-4qMMuRcf9Svk7O2Ew2lzYwegAJy633cHxniyLIXkQ/edit?usp=sharing

What was responsible for Barrett's regression?

He had a pretty good (2) games:

26.5 PPG, 2 REB, 3.5 AST 50% FG, 46% PT, 73% FT

Was it just the dip in Reb, STL+BLK?

I'm just curious what would swing it looking at his scoring and shooting lines.

 

[Nathan S]

What was responsible for Barrett's regression?

He had a pretty good (2) games:

26.5 PPG, 2 REB, 3.5 AST 50% FG, 46% PT, 73% FT

Was it just the dip in Reb, STL+BLK?

I'm just curious what would swing it looking at is scoring and shooting lines.

His offensive rating didn't really change (slightly better than usual scoring offset by slightly worse than usual assist:TO), but (as you suspected) his defensive rating really tanked.

 

[I'mWithDan]

@Nathan S Does you system like Charles Matthews at all?

Not as a high pick but he's also a second round guy that has made an interesting statistical progression. And given how well he defends, he's a frisky second round talent if some of his shooting improvement is projectable.

He's just an incredibly functional athlete and paired with his length, is another second rounder I really like as a possible rotational player.

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S Does you system like Charles Matthews at all?

Not as a high pick but he's also a second round guy that has made an interesting statistical progression. And given how well he defends, he's a frisky second round talent if some of his shooting improvement is projectable.

He's just an incredibly functional athlete and paired with his length, is another second rounder I really like as a possible rotational player.

Not really...he's too behind-the-curve statistically as a 22 year old. Even if you're a plus athlete, it's hard to make it as a perimeter player who doesn't shoot well or pass well.

Out of all the Michigan guys, it actually sees Teske as the safest bet to stick in the NBA. Low upside (though that could change if he starts making threes with more regularity), but very good defensive credentials and a very low-mistake offensive player.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

@Nathan S Does you system like Charles Matthews at all?

Not as a high pick but he's also a second round guy that has made an interesting statistical progression. And given how well he defends, he's a frisky second round talent if some of his shooting improvement is projectable.

He's just an incredibly functional athlete and paired with his length, is another second rounder I really like as a possible rotational player.

Have watched a lot of Michigan lately. I love Charles Matthews as a borderline first rounder in this draft. NBA size and a legit 3 position defender. The shooting is rough, but I do think he can do enough of the little things to not be negative on that end in a regular season setting possibly. A deep NCAA run could very easily make him a first rounder.

 

[Nathan S]

Have watched a lot of Michigan lately. I love Charles Matthews as a borderline first rounder in this draft. NBA size and a legit 3 position defender. The shooting is rough, but I do think he can do enough of the little things to not be negative on that end in a regular season setting possibly. A deep NCAA run could very easily make him a first rounder.

What's the argument for him over Josh Reaves and Alpha Diallo, two other upperclassman wings who on paper look like much better 3&D candidates?

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

What's the argument for him over Josh Reaves and Alpha Diallo, two other upperclassman wings who on paper look like much better 3&D candidates?

I've watched a lot of both of those guys as well actually. Diallo is a fringe NBA guy probably to me. I buy Matthews shooting more than him to begin with, and they're on completely different levels defensively, despite what the stocks are between the two. I don't have the measurements, but I'd expect Matthews to have a lot better length too, to go along with a better frame.

I love Reaves as well. He's another guy I really like in the second round. Reaves vs Matthews is tough, I could really go either way. While Matthews is a better slasher, Reaves will probably shoot it better and can pass a little. I do think Matthews has some shot creation upside despite the shooting. Also I think Matthews will be a better NBA level defender than Reaves too almost entirely because I'd expect him to have 2-3 inches more reach. But Reaves is also a little bit younger. It's really a toss up for me... I think I'd slightly lean Matthews now just because I think he will be able to guard bigger players.

I'd also be curious to know with your projections if a 6-month difference in age between say a 18.5 year old and a 19 year old would have a stronger effect than the same difference in age between a 21.5 year old and a 22 year old. Not sure if you'd be able to get that answer from your model or not, but that's interesting to me.

 

[Nathan S]

I've watched a lot of both of those guys as well actually. Diallo is a fringe NBA guy probably to me. I buy Matthews shooting more than him to begin with, and they're on completely different levels defensively, despite what the stocks are between the two. I don't have the measurements, but I'd expect Matthews to have a lot better length too, to go along with a better frame.

I love Reaves as well. He's another guy I really like in the second round. Reaves vs Matthews is tough, I could really go either way. While Matthews is a better slasher, Reaves will probably shoot it better and can pass a little. I do think Matthews has some shot creation upside despite the shooting. Also I think Matthews will be a better NBA level defender than Reaves too almost entirely because I'd expect him to have 2-3 inches more reach. But Reaves is also a little bit younger. It's really a toss up for me... I think I'd slightly lean Matthews now just because I think he will be able to guard bigger players.

I'd also be curious to know with your projections if a 6-month difference in age between say a 18.5 year old and a 19 year old would have a stronger effect than the same difference in age between a 21.5 year old and a 22 year old. Not sure if you'd be able to get that answer from your model or not, but that's interesting to me.

I haven't watched Diallo at all, but I'm very biased against Matthews because he's never made a 3 while I've watched him, and he's a ~60% foul shooter...that combination, at age 22, makes him seem like a non-NBAer to me.

The aging curve is indeed nonlinear (steeper in the teens, less steep as prospects get older). I'll edit this post with details.

EDIT: To add, I also think B-level shot creation ability is pretty overrated. A good NBA team should only have three, maybe four guys who ever try to create offense, IMO...if you're not good enough to be a top 3 or 4 creator on a good team, then all that really matters on offense is off-ball and "glue guy" type skills.

EDIT2:

On offense...

From age 18 to 19 (on Jan. 1), you lose ~0.53
From age 19 to 20, you lose ~0.45
From age 20 to 21, you lose ~0.31
From age 21 to 22, you lose ~0.25
From age 22 to 23, you lose ~0.19

On defense...

From age 18 to 19, you lose ~0.80
From age 19 to 20, you lose ~0.71
From age 20 to 21, you lose ~0.53
From age 21 to 22, you lose ~0.47
From age 22 to 23, you lose ~0.35

 

[I'mWithDan]

Have watched a lot of Michigan lately. I love Charles Matthews as a borderline first rounder in this draft. NBA size and a legit 3 position defender. The shooting is rough, but I do think he can do enough of the little things to not be negative on that end in a regular season setting possibly. A deep NCAA run could very easily make him a first rounder.

He's made an interesting leap as a FT shooter(+6.9%).....going from bad to mediocre. This seems like kind of a funny comment but he has seen incremental improvement shooting, at an age when most guys do not. A lot of shooting coaches will really stump for an athletic guy like Matthews, who has shown a jump up without minor mechanical tweaks. He has a medium to high release, good balance, good follow through....those are the type of guys who can respond to small mechanical adjustments. Matthews is also interestingly a good mid to medium deep range shooter (low 40's)......so it seems like he is the right profile of guy to project as a "good enough" shooter given his defensive versatility.

Again, I think he has a rotational ceiling but it's always hard to project transfers like him who are late bloomers. He was very highly regarded as a HS player and I'm not sure if this is the result of him maturing late in his college career or just an example of how upperclassmen can impose their will at the college level far easier, given the age and experience gap.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I missed the Duke game......someone level set with me, how is it possible Barrett took 17 (3's)?

 

[Nathan S]

I missed the Duke game......someone level set with me, how is it possible Barrett took 17 (3's)?

The paint was packed once Syracuse finally realized that they can't afford to let Zion score at will...and then (with no Jones or Reddish) RJ was basically the only offensive option. So good defense more than selfish chucking is the explanation.

A good game to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of Zion, too.

On one hand, while he's a great ballhandler for a PF/C, he's really not good enough to actually create 1-on-1 from the perimeter...as a result, Cuse was able to pretty much take him out of the game by denying entry passes and bringing aggressive doubleteams in the paint. He only scored 7 points in the last 13 minutes of the second half and OT, 6 of them off RJ assists (and the other one on a bad shooting foul call).

On the other hand, his gravity in the paint is crazy. It's going to be such a huge boon for whatever NBA team gets him, especially if he gets better at passing the ball back out to open shooters. He's a huge reason why Duke shot 43 threes, most of them open or wide open, and when and NBA team shoots 43 threes they're going to make more than 9 of them most nights.