JustAnotherGuy
Towel-waver; VORP 0
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I wanted to assess several careers against one another – Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan provided the initial analysis, and I wanted to have a glimpse into the future and a past measuring stick, so I included LeBron, Jordan, Bird, and Magic. I hadn’t see anyone do the Bryant/Duncan comparison in exactly the way I would have. I dragged myself over to basketball-reference.com because those guys have a great variety of information available. I’m more inclined to trust advanced statistics than the traditional ones, as some of my other commentary on here may suggest. That being said, I’m taking three approaches here on each of three chief statistics. I’m using PER, Box Plus/Minus, and WS/48.
First, we ask the simple questions: for each metric, how many times was each player in the top 10, top 5, top 1?
Second, I compare their best seasons, second best seasons, on down to the tenth best (i.e., how do their best years stack up against one another?), and finally, I compare based on age (at 19, 20, etc., how do they compare?).
The first is the easiest:
PER: Bryant: 11/5/0, Duncan: 13/9/0, LeBron: 11/8/6, Jordan: 11/11/7, Bird: 7/6/2, Magic: 10/6/0
BPM: Bryant: 7/1/0, Duncan: 12/8/1, LeBron: 11/11/8, Jordan: 10/10/5, Bird: 11/9/4, Magic: 11/10/1
WS/48:Bryant: 7/1/0, Duncan: 13/5/0, LeBron: 10/7/5, Jordan: 11/11/8, Bird: 7/6/2, Magic: 10/7/1
As between Bryant and everyone else, the verdict is clear. As among everyone else, it’s fair to say LeBron belongs in a discussion with anyone. The records of Magic and Bird are impressive, as they go. And Holy Hell, what if Michael didn’t miss those years? Tim Duncan -- steady as she goes, more years in the top ten for all three stats than anyone else in the sample.
The second is below:
PER:
BPM:
WS/48:
PER
*Played only 6 games **Less than 20 games
BPM
*Played only 6 games **Less than 20 games
WS/48
*Played only 6 games **Less than 20 games
First, we ask the simple questions: for each metric, how many times was each player in the top 10, top 5, top 1?
Second, I compare their best seasons, second best seasons, on down to the tenth best (i.e., how do their best years stack up against one another?), and finally, I compare based on age (at 19, 20, etc., how do they compare?).
The first is the easiest:
PER: Bryant: 11/5/0, Duncan: 13/9/0, LeBron: 11/8/6, Jordan: 11/11/7, Bird: 7/6/2, Magic: 10/6/0
BPM: Bryant: 7/1/0, Duncan: 12/8/1, LeBron: 11/11/8, Jordan: 10/10/5, Bird: 11/9/4, Magic: 11/10/1
WS/48:Bryant: 7/1/0, Duncan: 13/5/0, LeBron: 10/7/5, Jordan: 11/11/8, Bird: 7/6/2, Magic: 10/7/1
As between Bryant and everyone else, the verdict is clear. As among everyone else, it’s fair to say LeBron belongs in a discussion with anyone. The records of Magic and Bird are impressive, as they go. And Holy Hell, what if Michael didn’t miss those years? Tim Duncan -- steady as she goes, more years in the top ten for all three stats than anyone else in the sample.
The second is below:
PER:
BPM:
Brief analysis: again, LeBron looks (by all three measures) to measure up to the folks widely regarded as among the best of recent eras. The numbers that didn’t like Kobe much in terms of his ranking against his contemporaries don’t favor him much as against history, either. Michael’s career looks even more incredible standing next to Bird’s and Magic’s. For WS/48, out of sixty seasons represented here, LeBron and Michael have the top eleven. Besides LeBron, nobody on the table would place any of their seasons above eighth on Michael’s list. Kobe would place eleventh. Tim Duncan appears to be fighting undefeated Father Time almost to a draw.
Speaking of Father Time, the third comparison is age-driven:
Speaking of Father Time, the third comparison is age-driven:
PER
*Played only 6 games **Less than 20 games
BPM
*Played only 6 games **Less than 20 games
WS/48
*Played only 6 games **Less than 20 games
I’m not trying to draw any big-picture conclusions from this. It looks, of course, like the advanced stats aren’t as big on Kobe as his most vocal supporters are. Below are a few possibly disjointed thoughts regarding the players in question:
(1) Tim Duncan, since the 1997-1998 season, has not turned in a season where he didn’t contribute significantly – per WS/48, 60% more than an average player to his team’s chance to win by being on the floor. That’s a phenomenal run.
(2) One wonders what would fill in the DNP’s for Jordan and Magic. There was a serious falloff for each in between – would it have been a slow decline? Would they have achieved at a higher level than they did if they hadn’t had the layoff?
(3) This makes me less optimistic than I had previously been about the shape of LeBron’s career going forward.
(4) From this whole picture, here, I don’t see an argument from these statistics for Kobe as among the very top NBA players all-time. Obviously, scoring is a popular metric for analysis, as are RINGZZZZZZ and playoff performances. From a regular-season, analytic measure, I’m curious who might create a better pool of comparables for Kobe. I don’t have the patience for plotting out additional iterations of part 2 and 3 above – but I will likely follow up with a broader collection of players (KG, Shaq, Dirk, Stockton, Malone, e.g.) in the comments to follow.
(5) At his peak, of course, LeBron was at a dizzying height. It will be curious to come back and re-run this comparison to see how Kyrie, Love, Curry, Westbrook, Harden, AD, et al. fit into the analysis.
(1) Tim Duncan, since the 1997-1998 season, has not turned in a season where he didn’t contribute significantly – per WS/48, 60% more than an average player to his team’s chance to win by being on the floor. That’s a phenomenal run.
(2) One wonders what would fill in the DNP’s for Jordan and Magic. There was a serious falloff for each in between – would it have been a slow decline? Would they have achieved at a higher level than they did if they hadn’t had the layoff?
(3) This makes me less optimistic than I had previously been about the shape of LeBron’s career going forward.
(4) From this whole picture, here, I don’t see an argument from these statistics for Kobe as among the very top NBA players all-time. Obviously, scoring is a popular metric for analysis, as are RINGZZZZZZ and playoff performances. From a regular-season, analytic measure, I’m curious who might create a better pool of comparables for Kobe. I don’t have the patience for plotting out additional iterations of part 2 and 3 above – but I will likely follow up with a broader collection of players (KG, Shaq, Dirk, Stockton, Malone, e.g.) in the comments to follow.
(5) At his peak, of course, LeBron was at a dizzying height. It will be curious to come back and re-run this comparison to see how Kyrie, Love, Curry, Westbrook, Harden, AD, et al. fit into the analysis.
