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NBA Finals 2015: Cavs vs Warriors

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Predict the series

  • Cavs in 4

    Votes: 18 4.1%
  • Cavs in 5

    Votes: 43 9.8%
  • Cavs in 6

    Votes: 286 65.3%
  • Cavs in 7

    Votes: 34 7.8%
  • Warriors in 7

    Votes: 16 3.7%
  • Warriors in 6

    Votes: 27 6.2%
  • Warriors in 5

    Votes: 11 2.5%
  • Warriors in 4

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Total voters
    438
  • Poll closed .
Well, teams playing really well at a given moment have beaten others they shouldn't have. Coaching is a huge element in these. The 66 win Cavs had no business losing to Orlando, but they were handily out-coached and Orlando's role players played out of their mind, while everyone but LeBron sucked badly. Could you have a situation where we have matchup advantages that yield positive results? Yeah, sure. Do I think that maybe Steve Kerr has faced very little adversity in his rookie year and has had to do very little game management? Possibly, but that doesn't mean he won't make the right decisions when the time comes. I think at the very least there's no way to deny that the Cavs will have a major uphill climb to beat GS. They've got what it takes, but endings to games like we saw on Weds won't get it done for sure.
Yeah, one thing that gives me some hope is what you mentioned- Golden State hadn't faced much adversity. They build up giant leads feeding on their crowd and that usually is enough for them to maintain and win. They almost blew it last night if not for a giant choke by Houston. Whereas our team has been going through adversity since Kevin went down and they've responded extremely well. I'm not overly optimistic against GSW with us looking hobbled, but I also wasn't optimistic against Chicago and Blatt, Tristan, Delly, and Shump all did much much better than I expected so I won't count us out yet.
 
Huh?

Who does Houston have to guard LeBron?

Golden State has Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes; all plus defenders with Green, Thompson, and AI2 being top-tier to elite perimeter defenders. Thompson and Green are both DPOY-level players.

The small bits and pieces of GS games I've watched make me wonder why these are elite-level defenders, though. I can see Green, and I see that Bogut is a strong shot-blocker, but absolutely nothing else I've seen about their defense makes me think that they're as good as they're rated. I watch the games and they allow a lot of dribble penetration. Easy spacing seems available against them. In the playoffs, it looks like teams are averaging really close to 100 points per game against them. That's not elite defense in my book, and the last series was against a reasonably offensively challenged team.

EDIT: Sorry, 95.5 PPG. But in the playoffs, that's still kind of high to me.

I'm much more scared of some of their players getting scorching hot and/or LeBron forgetting that he has a major size advantage down low and getting lulled into drive and kicks where he goes up in the air for passes. Those are the times when he turns the ball over. Well, that and when he thinks he's got Kyrie's handles, which he doesn't. If he plays more deliberately, getting on the block, giving up his dribble to repost, the Warriors have no answer. They will have to double-team, leaving someone open. Our guys just have to hit their open shots.

It'll still be hard, but it's doable.
 
Golden State has Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes; all plus defenders with Green, Thompson, and AI2 being top-tier to elite perimeter defenders. Thompson and Green are both DPOY-level players.

Iggy and Barnes are not plus defenders. Maybe I'd give you above average but they're not stopping elite wing players (see Harden). Thompson is overrated as a defender IMO (he lacks lateral quickness) and Green is an elite defender but I don't see either checking LeBron for extended periods.

Advanced defensive stats (playoffs):

Iggy - 106 DRTG, 0.2 DBPM
Barnes - 105 DRTG, 1.0 DBPM
Klay - 105 DRTG, -0.6 DBPM
Green - 98 DRTG, 4.1 DBPM

That 105-106 DRTG is middle of the road for wing players who qualify for minutes per game leaders.

The Warriors need Thompsons' offense or else it puts way too much pressure on Curry to score 30+ each game. Having LeBron beat on him for 25-30 minutes a game is going to wear him down and zap his legs as a jump shooter. Just look at the shooting disparity in Butler's numbers (40.7 FG% guarding LeBron, 47.6 % guarding Giannis).

I also just do not see a scenario where the Warriors can play Green on LeBron other than in spot duty. In an extended minutes scenario, they then have a cross match of either Barnes or Klay on Tristan. He will absolutey DESTROY them on the offensive glass. That or they pull Barnes and play bigger with Lee, who has been awful this whole playoffs.

Neither scenario is great for GSW. You're either sacrificing your second leading scorer for defensive purposes or you're opening yourself up to a ton of second chance points. Harden has been torching that trio thus far (Iggy, Barnes, Klay) and I'm sure LeBron would do the same.

It's not going to be easy. GSW has a better all around team but they honestly don't match up with us that well on defense (simply because of LeBron). They're going to potentially have to shuffle a few guys around, which should open up opportunities for role players.
 
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The small bits and pieces of GS games I've watched make me wonder why these are elite-level defenders, though. I can see Green, and I see that Bogut is a strong shot-blocker, but absolutely nothing else I've seen about their defense makes me think that they're as good as they're rated. I watch the games and they allow a lot of dribble penetration. Easy spacing seems available against them. In the playoffs, it looks like teams are averaging really close to 100 points per game against them. That's not elite defense in my book, and the last series was against a reasonably offensively challenged team.

EDIT: Sorry, 95.5 PPG. But in the playoffs, that's still kind of high to me.

I'm much more scared of some of their players getting scorching hot and/or LeBron forgetting that he has a major size advantage down low and getting lulled into drive and kicks where he goes up in the air for passes. Those are the times when he turns the ball over. Well, that and when he thinks he's got Kyrie's handles, which he doesn't. If he plays more deliberately, getting on the block, giving up his dribble to repost, the Warriors have no answer. They will have to double-team, leaving someone open. Our guys just have to hit their open shots.

It'll still be hard, but it's doable.
95.5 PPG is the best out of all the WC teams, and it isn't even pace adjusted. It also doesn't account for them facing much tougher teams. They won't need to double LeBron because Tristan and Mozgov won't be pulling anyone away from the basket. With Kyrie hobbled, and Love out, spacing is a very real concern for this team. We are going to have to continue to grind out wins because nothing is going to come easily for us offensively.

We will have a shot if we get there because we have LeBron, but the Warriors will be, and should be, the favorites.
 
Iggy and Barnes are not plus defenders. Maybe I'd give you above average

What?

Btw, your DBPM stats show 3 of the 4 as plus defenders, with Klay who is an elite defender (who you called overrated) slightly in the negative.

You know why Klay is negative right now right? (Btw, Mike Conley was -0.5 on the season).
 
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What?

Btw, your DBPM stats show 3 of the 4 as plus defenders, with Klay who is an elite defender (who you called overrated) slightly in the negative.

You know why Klay is negative right now right? (Btw, Mike Conley was -0.5 on the season).

What is your definition of a "plus" defender? That they are above zero on DBPM? Those aren't the end all be all for assessing everything a defender does but when you watch them play, it backs up that they're not as good as you are saying they are IMO. They've posted average advanced metrics guarding guys like Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Tony Allen and Courtney Lee. Then in the WCF are getting toasted by Harden.

Look at where they fall amongst all SG/Wing players. They're middle of the road. The NBA average for DRTG is around 105-106. The best wing defender during the regular season was Iggy but he gives up like 50+ LBS to LeBron.

I think you are WAY overrating their wings on the defensive side of the ball. As a team, they are very good but they don't have defenders that are going to give LeBron problems IMO. I'm not saying we are going to walk through them. They would be a pretty decent favorite but because we have an elite SF, that is the one area they struggle to defend and it gives us a chance.
 
A bunch of first time finalists who haven't been tested with any adversity versus the best player in the NBA, the best player since Jordan...


With Love and Irving healthy, we win this series in 5.

If Kyrie can't give us much that'll be a big blow and we probably won't be able to recover from that considering how healthy they are...

but if Kyrie can even give us a few big games...The Cavs can absolutely still beat the Warriors in 6 or 7. What happens if we take one of the first 2 and they lose their HCA and all of a sudden have to win on the road against LeBron in the NBA finals?

They might be able to do it, but they also might not respond the right way.

If we make it to the finals, we're going to at least be competitive. Curry isn't so quick or explosive off the bounce that I think we can defend him better than we can defend Atlanta's guards and better than most teams in the NBA can defend him.

We can play small-ball with them and NOT be at a disadvantage because Tristan and LeBron would out-work their front-court on the glass and LeBron at the 4 is a permanent mismatch for any team.

We can hang with the Warriors. I'm sure of it. Hopefully Kyrie is healthy enough to go if that ends up being the case. That'd help a lot.
 
What is your definition of a "plus" defender? That they are above zero on DBPM?

No.

Being a "plus" defender simply means that a person is above league average on some quantitative or qualitative scale. On a normalized scale, a person who is above zero should be a "plus" defender.

However, this isn't the case for DBPM, because DBPM is not a good measurement to use for most perimeter defenders. It also fails to really take into account non-box score related observables; and thus, is not really useful to make either of our points.

Those aren't the end all be all for assessing everything a defender does but when you watch them play, it backs up that they're not as good as you are saying they are IMO.

You picked one statistic and used it as the primary premise of your argument. If you go back over my posts, I routinely explain to others how DBPM works and why it isn't useful for what you're trying to do.

Your statement that "it backs up that they are not as good as (I am) saying they are" is demonstrably false. You can look at how DBPM is calculated to easily see this; or you can simply read the synopsis of the history of the statistic on bb-ref:

"on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender."


I can get into further detail and demonstrate how and why Klay Thompson is an excellent defender yet DBPM will not reflect this.

They've posted average advanced metrics guarding guys like Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Tony Allen and Courtney Lee. Then in the WCF are getting toasted by Harden.

Harden is obviously an outlier, he's an MVP candidate; you cannot use him to make your case.

Look at where they fall amongst all SG/Wing players. They're middle of the road. The NBA average for DRTG is around 105-106. The best wing defender during the regular season was Iggy but he gives up like 50+ LBS to LeBron.

Again, you're resorting to the box score stats which punish Thompson for not being a good rebounder. DRtg doesn't directly measure perimeter (wing) defense.

You again use LeBron James (an outlier) vs Iguodala, to try to make a case. It's not how one does statistical comparisons.

I think you are WAY overrating their wings on the defensive side of the ball.

Which is okay, and I'm open to that possibility; but you haven't given me actually valid reasons to think I'm overrating them.

As a team, they are very good but they don't have defenders that are going to give LeBron problems IMO.

I don't think LeBron will have problems per se; but let's not pretend like they don't have wing and post defenders - they do, some pretty fucking good ones too.

I'm not saying we are going to walk through them. They would be a pretty decent favorite but because we have an elite SF, that is the one area they struggle to defend and it gives us a chance.

They don't struggle to defend penetration or the rim; they're actually among the best in the league.

I'm not even sure we're talking about the same team. The Warriors are among the Top 3 best defensive teams in the NBA, and by many measures, they are the best.

Don't just take my word for it; here's what Ethan Strauss said about it midseason:

How Warriors built NBA's top defense

"For the Warriors, positions mean so little on defense because they've built a roster comprised of guys the same size.

The players and coaches call it "versatility," a common set of qualities that allows the team to constantly switch on and off the ball.

With Iguodala, Livingston, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Justin Holiday, Golden State has a half-dozen long, defensively talented players who stand between 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-8.

That height range is perfect for navigating between marking little guys and grappling with big men. For example, Green typically guards power forwards, but he can stop Chris Paul in a pinch."
 
EDIT: Sorry, 95.5 PPG. But in the playoffs, that's still kind of high to me.

That's good for 3rd best in the playoffs....

That's also good for a +14.6 net differential which is 2x better than the next best team; (Cavs are 7.1 (2nd), Rockets are at +0.6).

You guys are tripping.

Yes, it's doable; yes, we have a chance! But let's not sit here and pretend that Golden State isn't good at what they do. That's just silly.
 
I like GS's defenders and I've always been a fan of Iggy's and agree that GS has several plus to very good defenders and a good defensive anchor in Bogut.

That being said, Lebron just seems to have his way with certain players and GS seems to have a bunch of guy he just seems to enjoy playing against. Unlike Leonard and to a lesser extent Butler, who seem to get Lebron out of his comfort zone, I've seen Lebron just destroy AI at several points in his career and he did the same thing to Barnes earlier in the year.
 
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I just can't see how we beat GS with Kyrie playing like he is. We just don't have the players without Kyrie. I mean, Lebron, great, but Lebron + Shumpert/Love/TT/Mozgov/Delly are going to beat a totally healthy team that won almost 70 games this season? Unless somebody from the bench gets miraculously rejuvenated we have only those 6 real NBA players.

It would be an incredible achievement, that's for sure.

couldn't agree more. it would certainly be among the biggest Finals upsets i've seen in my lifetime (i'm 26). i thought we would be underdogs going into a series with Kyrie AND Kevin Love being healthy, without Love and banged-up Kyrie, i just can't see how we beat them. they have a better bench, better starting 5, are better coached (might have something to do with them playing together longer) and it's also the only series where we can't say we have the Lebron trump card. Curry is playing so well now that that's basically a toss up, especially when you consider that gimpy Kyrie and Delly will have to defend him (another problem is that you can't hide Kyrie on defense against them, Harrison Barnes is probably their weakest link on offense but they would put him in the post against Kyrie and get him in foul trouble)

i thought the Warriors were heavy favorites to win it all going into the playoffs, now every other contender has to deal with injuries to key players while the only guy not being able to play for them is Mo F. Speights, they are the team of destiny. if the Cavs make the Finals, i would pick the Warriors in 5.
 
Gotta say that I'm kind of intrigued with watching a no-Kyrie team tonight. Since we've already won Game 1, we're playing with house money in Game 2. So seeing who picks up the minutes, how Blatt handles the rotations, the offensive and defensive adjustments, etc., will be pretty interesting from a purely basketball perspective.

Of course, if we'd lost Game 1, I'd be crapping my pants.
 
That's good for 3rd best in the playoffs....

That's also good for a +14.6 net differential which is 2x better than the next best team; (Cavs are 7.1 (2nd), Rockets are at +0.6).

You guys are tripping.

Yes, it's doable; yes, we have a chance! But let's not sit here and pretend that Golden State isn't good at what they do. That's just silly.
huh?

i think we have a half point lead in net margin over gs in the playoffs
 
huh?

i think we have a half point lead in net margin over gs in the playoffs

You're right!! I went back and checked my chart and I had transposed the Mavericks with the Warriors.

Thanks for the correction!
 
GSW is a great team, but nobody has been playing the kind of defense the Cavs are playing now. I think that's going to be a bit of a shock to whomever we face.
 

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