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The Cavs vs Bulls Series

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Sometime talked about being a fearful team a few months ago...this series will be the beginning of teams fearing us. Not saying that Chicago will, but teams watching will.

Don't let the media fool you guys. This team isn't losing to the Bulls.
 
...yawn...

Bulls are going to get demolished.. I have absolutely zero concerns about Chicago, whatsoever.

My only fear is that they might intentionally injure one of our players; other than that, they have relatively little chance at taking the Cavs, let alone over 7 games.

Fear? That's a strong word for a guy that has had numerous knee injuries. If I were Bulls fans I'd fear that Kyrie crosses over on him and breaks his ankle.
 
I don't know... I wouldn't say Bulls are going to get demolished, tbh.
I'd say it's 60/40 in favor of us right now. But I wouldn't be surprised one bit, if Bulls advance to the ECF.
Will be an extremely tough series for both teams.
 
And I'm assuming ALL of the 1st round games would have to be completed before the 2nd round starts?
not necessarily, I remember in the past conference finals starting in 1 conference while game 7 of the 2nd round was the same day in the other. I remember it happened at least twice before in my memory.
 
It's going to be pretty tough.

I say Cavs in 6 or maybe even in 7. Home advantage can play a big part here. Bulls are probably at a similar level of Hawks.
 
Rose to me is Hardaway part deux. He may still be above average but he will never be his former self, stopping with the comparison: and I doubt he ever makes the NBA finals.
 
That's actually not the case. Some statistics are measurements, others are instead designed to have predictive function. Net rating can be (and is) predictive, but not for the function you've attempt to apply it.



The problem with your usage of net rating to gauge a playoff matchup between the Bulls and Cavs is twofold, both an issue of linearity, net rtg's are essentially averages over 82 games, and only ~4 of which are even relevant; and co-linearity, or in essence, the fact that these ratings are composed of discretely different lineups that perform substantially differently under various conditions.

What you're wanting to do is determine the outcome of a specific matchup, that will likely have irregular minute distribution (compared to the regular season) for the best performing lineups for the respective teams.

This is an entirely different question than to ask, how would a particular team do, on average, playing 30 randomly distributed teams over the course of 82 games. If instead, you wanted to predict an entire season, then you could use the Net Rtg as a predictive tool. But again, it fails for the purposes of predicting individual matchups, especially in a playoff setting.

For what you want to do, you would need to simulate the set of potential possessions using individual player metrics and aggregate the sum total to potentially predict the box score. This is most commonly done by using Markov chains of discrete states (i.e. possessions). But in essence, it is a non-trivial process.

@Lil Z , why on Earth would you rate this post as "Old"?
 
Chicago knows LeBron will get his either way, so it will come down to Kyrie vs. Derrick.

IMO, whoever wins that match wins the series.
 
If it comes down to Kyrie vs Rose, then it's a sweep for us.

The Bulls just don't have enough left in the tank at this point in the season to deal with the Cavs for an entire series.
 
How's Kyrie done this year? How's Rose done this year?

Yeah that settles that debate.

Mozgov can handle Noah's physicality.

LeBron makes Butler cry.

Dunleavy guarding Smith on the perimeter. Don't make me laugh.

LeBron does LeBron, Kyrie spin moves Derrick's knees into oblivion, Love doesn't miss - put it in a blender:

822595041.gif


You're left with Cabs in 6.
 
i dont get why you guys are confident against the bulls.. the way the cavs are allowing penetration to guys like thomas and turner are making me nervous.. if the cavs cant contain dribble drives by players less talented and athletic than drose then the cavs are in a lot of trouble.. kyrie can score but his defense is sub par especially on pick n rolls.. im officially concerned with the bulls..
 
I agree.. The Cavs are not a good enough defensive team to handle the Bulls... Bulls have great interior passers that they utilize--- excellent penetrator-- two guys that can get buckets when they want and a couple nice shooters from the outside...

They will not be easy...
 
i dont get why you guys are confident against the bulls.. the way the cavs are allowing penetration to guys like thomas and turner are making me nervous.. if the cavs cant contain dribble drives by players less talented and athletic than drose then the cavs are in a lot of trouble.. kyrie can score but his defense is sub par especially on pick n rolls.. im officially concerned with the bulls..
You haven't caught much of the Bulls-Bucks series have you?

It works both ways and the end result (all that matters) is that both teams did what they needed to be up 3-0.

If you are looking at how we are playing the Celtics and think we will play the Bulls the same way you are in for a pleasant surprise
 
I believe we will win but I definitely disagree with the Bulls having no chance. I'm thinking its more like 80/20 in our favor, but 20% is still a real threat in my eyes. It would take a lot on the Bulls part of course. DRose is a huge factor.

And ultimately, home court + LeBron are half the reason I'm fairly confident about this myself.

The thing that really worries me however is our defense isn't up to where it historically needs to be to win a championship, and that could come to haunt us in the finals. Though if our offense is unprecedently efficient then well-regarded all time stats like that can be broken through.
 
I believe we will win but I definitely disagree with the Bulls having no chance. I'm thinking its more like 80/20 in our favor, but 20% is still a real threat in my eyes. It would take a lot on the Bulls part of course. DRose is a huge factor.

And ultimately, home court + LeBron are half the reason I'm fairly confident about this myself.

The thing that really worries me however is our defense isn't up to where it historically needs to be to win a championship, and that could come to haunt us in the finals. Though if our offense is unprecedently efficient then well-regarded all time stats like that can be broken through.

I'm more worried about the Bulls than the west finals team. We beat up on the west pretty good this year and feel we won't lose 4 games if we make the finals. The west winner is going to be drained, most likely. Imo.
 

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