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Cavs by the numbers

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Figured this would be a good place to ask... can somebody post the Kevin Pelton article from the day? It's about the cavs how exactly they've improved as the season has gone on...

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11998589/cleveland-cavaliers-rounding-form-nba

Rep to whoever can post that bad boy.

Cavaliers rounding into form
Riding six-game winning streak, Cleveland now looks like team we expected
Originally Published: December 8, 2014
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
nba_g_james1_576x324.jpg

Jason Miller/Getty Images​

LeBron James & Co. have stepped up their offense and defense during the recent run.

Dennis Green is not an NBA coach. If he were, the former Arizona Cardinals coach might let us know that the Cleveland Cavaliers "are who we thought they were."
While they are still stuck in fourth in the Eastern Conference, their six-game winning streak is tied for the conference's longest this season and they've won those six games by an average of 15 points, including a 14-point road win Friday night against the East-leading Toronto Raptors. So despite a contentious 5-7 start, Cleveland is beginning to look like the Finals favorite we expected before the season.

The groundwork for the Cavaliers' winning streak was actually laid during the four-game losing streak that preceded it. While the offense continued to struggle with defining roles during that stretch, cracking 1.0 points per possession just once in the four losses, the defense was showing signs of progress. The first seven games of the season saw the Cavaliers ranked among the league's worst defenses on a per-possession basis, but they have allowed opponents to exceed their season average for offensive rating just three times in the past 11 games.

Cleveland's season-long defensive rating has been improving for nearly a month, to the point where the Cavaliers now rank 15th during the course of the season and sixth in the league in the past 10 games, per NBA.com/Stats.

Coach David Blatt hasn't solved Cleveland's lack of rim protection. The Cavaliers still are allowing opponents to make 65.5 percent of their attempts inside the restricted area, the NBA's second-worst mark. But Cleveland recently has been able to overcome this liability. It is doing a relatively good job of keeping opponents out of the paint. Just three other teams allow a lower percentage of shot attempts inside the restricted area.

Beyond that, the Cavaliers have forced misses from everywhere else. Opponents have made just 34.9 percent of their 2-point attempts outside the restricted area in the past 10 games, compared to 45.0 percent during the first eight, when the defense struggled. Cleveland also has been slightly better than average in terms of opponent 3-point shooting (34.6 percent).

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Courtesy NBA.com/Stats​

The Cavaliers probably can't sustain a top-10 defense. During their six-game winning streak, opponents are making 33.1 percent of their 2-pointers outside the restricted area, a mark no defense has come close to achieving during a full season. (The Phoenix Suns rank No. 1 in opponent 2-point percentage outside the restricted area at 35.4 percent.) That's a combination of a weak set of opposing offenses and random noise.

However, the 45.0 percent they gave up on 2-pointers outside the restricted area in the first eight games was equally fluky; it would be the highest percentage in the league for the full season (the Indiana Pacers are last at 43.6 percent.) So the Cleveland defense was never quite as bad as it looked early. And a league-average defense is a realistic target for this group of players.

If the Cavaliers can combine average defense with an offense operating at full potential, they'll win a lot of games. During the winning streak, Cleveland ranks third in the NBA in offensive rating against an above-average set of opposing defenses.
The most encouraging sign for the Cavaliers' offense is how well Kevin Love has played during the winning streak. He's averaging 19.0 points while making an even 60.0 percent of his 2-point attempts and 41.7 percent from 3-point range. Because Love isn't getting any more shot attempts in the streak, he hasn't cut into the scoring of LeBron James (24.3 PPG) or Kyrie Irving (22.3 PPG). No team in the league has three players averaging at least 19 PPG.

There probably will be more bumps in store for Cleveland, because the team has shown a tendency to coast at times. During this winning streak, the Cavaliers have a pair of one-possession victories over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and the lowly New York Knicks. But they appear to be as good as any team in the NBA.
Looks like the Cavaliers are who we thought they were.

News and notes

• Cleveland still is in search of a 7-footer to improve its rim protection, with Marc Stein reporting Sunday that Kosta Koufos of the Memphis Grizzlies is the latest name on the wish list. Koufos has consistently ranked as above average in defending shots within 5 feet of the basket, as tracked by SportVU for NBA.com/Stats. Opponents made 47.4 percent of such shots with Koufos as a primary defender last season; it's 48.8 percent this season. That's better than Cleveland's best rim defender, Anderson Varejao (50.0 percent this season, 54.8 percent in 2013-14).
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Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports

Could Kosta Koufos be on his way to Cleveland?
As with past Cleveland center rumors, the real trick is finding a workable deal. While the Grizzlies might be willing to deal Koufos -- a free agent at season's end who is something of a luxury as a backup to All-Star Marc Gasol -- they don't want to sacrifice their chance to make a playoff run this season. Memphis doesn't have a third true center on its roster, and the Cavaliers couldn't offer a reliable backup for Gasol, which might necessitate the addition of a third team to make a realistic fit.

• Before coach Byron Scott changed things up on Sunday, the Los Angeles Lakers' starting lineup had been outscored by 111 points this season -- 56 points more than any other five-man unit in the league, per NBA.com/Stats. Amazingly, the Lakers' starting five had played the most minutes of any NBA lineup (337); only one other lineup that has played even 150 minutes together has been outscored at all. (That's Utah's starting five with Enes Kanter, which is minus-4 in 232 minutes.)

So it's understandable that Scott wanted to do something different, but replacing Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer with Ronnie Price and Ed Davis didn't seem to help much in a 104-87 home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. While the starting five was outscored by just two points in 19 minutes, the Lakers' bench was ineffective without Davis and Price. The Lakers were minus-15 in Boozer's 23 minutes of action. At this point, Scott might be simply shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

• With time running out in overtime on Friday in Minnesota, Houston Rockets coach Kevin McHale called on his shooting guard. No, not that one. James Harden had fouled out late in regulation after scoring 38 points in 37 minutes, so rookie Nick Johnson finished the game and scored the winning layup off a Jason Terry feed with less than a second remaining. The basket was just the seventh field goal of Johnson's NBA career, a ratio that will probably go down over time.

I can't think of a player with fewer career field goals before sinking a game winner. Sundiata Gaines famously made a game-winning 3-pointer for the Utah Jazz just days after getting called up from the D-League, but that was his eighth made shot. If you find a player with fewer, let me know on Twitter.

• Weekly top five: Jump ball songs:
5. "Jump" (Van Halen)
4. "Pass the Courvoisier Part II" (Busta Rhymes feat. P. Diddy and Pharrell)
3. "Jump On It" (Sir Mix-a-Lot)
2. "Jump Around" (House of Pain)
1. "Jump" (Kris Kross)
 
ESPN's Real Plus Minus numbers out.

  • ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
  • DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
  • RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors
1. Steph Curry: ORPM: 6.02 DRPM: 1.4 RPM: 7.42

14. LeBron James: ORPM: 3.49 DRPM: 1.0 RPM: 4.49 (Note: His RAPM numbers (similar to RPM) have been either at the top or top 2-3 for the past 8 years)

22. Kyrie Irving: ORPM: 4.31 DRPM: -.66 RPM: 3.65 (Note: His DRPM last year was at -3.38, 66th out of 75 point guards, 416 our of 437 total; this year, he's 34th out of 79)

59. Kevin Love: ORPM: 1.46 DRPM: .12 RPM: 1.58

144. Tristan Thompson: ORPM: .75 DRPM: -.85 RPM: -.10

166. Shawn Marion: ORPM: -1.66 DRPM: 1.18 RPM: -.48

170. Brendan Haywood: ORPM: -1.30 DRPM: .74 RPM: -.56

177. Andy V.: ORPM: -1.49 DRPM: .83 (3.59 last year, 23rd best in the league) RPM: -.66

184. Alex Kirk: ORPM: -1.06 DRPM: .33 RPM: -.73

269. Joe Harris: ORPM: -.67 DRPM: -.95 RPM: -1.62

282. Matthew Delly: ORPM: -1.03 (1.57 last year, 62nd best in the league) DRPM: -.72 RPM: -1.75

409. Mike Miller: ORPM: -2.60 DRPM: -1.30 RPM: -3.90

412. Dion Waiters: ORPM: 2.85 DRPM: 1.36 RPM: -4.21

OTHERS OF NOTE

48. Tyler Zeller ORPM: -.34 DRPM: 2.17 RPM: 1.83

110. Kosta Koufous: ORPM: -2.09 DRPM: 2.44 (19th best in the league) RPM: .35

160. Jonas Val: ORPM: -1.17 DRPM: .8 RPM: -.37

162. Larry Sanders: ORPM: -3.76 DRPM: 3.38 (6.29 last year, second best in the league) RPM: -.38

185. Timofey Mosgov: ORPM: -1.36 DRPM: .62 (1.35 last year) RPM: -.74

193. Iman Shumpert: ORPM: -.74 DRPM: -.10 RPM: -.84

239. B. Biyombo: ORPM: -.45 DRPM: -.89 (-.11 last year) RPM: -1.34

268. Tayshaun Prince: ORPM: -1.70 DRPM: .10 RPM: -1.60

272. Corey Brewer: ORPM: -.90 DRPM: -.75 RPM: -1.65

308. Samuel Dalembert: ORPM: -4.58 DRPM: 2.61 (17th best in the league) RPM: -1.97

321. John Henson ORPM: -1.07 DRPM: -1.03 RPM: -2.10 (-5.77 last year, 430 out of 437)

380. Andrew Wiggins: ORPM: -1.96 DRPM: -.92 RPM: -2.88

400. Anthony Bennett: ORPM: -1.66 DRPM: -1.97 RPM: -3.63

409. Mike Miller: ORPM: -2.60 DRPM: -1.30 RPM: -3.90

412. Dion Waiters: ORPM: 2.85 DRPM: 1.36 RPM: -4.21

420. Dougy McBuckets: ORPM: -3.06 DRPM: -2.20 RPM: --5.26 (last in the league)

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/11/sort/RPM
 
RAPM really doesn't tell you much at this point.
Used to love basketballvalue as it's adjusted +/- would give you the standard deviations. At this point in the season they are going to be so large that ranking players is extremely difficult to do as most of the means will fall within the confidence intervals of other players around them.
 
RAPM really doesn't tell you much at this point.
Used to love basketballvalue as it's adjusted +/- would give you the standard deviations. At this point in the season they are going to be so large that ranking players is extremely difficult to do as most of the means will fall within the confidence intervals of other players around them.

True, but it's a little something to look at with a little inkling of insight.
 
You can usually look at "minutes played" to get a pretty good handle on what the standard deviation is for most players. The only time that doesn't work is when there's a lot of co-incidence between to players. ( player a is never on the floor without player b, that kind of thing )

Basketball reference has similar numbers are available this year with OBPM, DBPM, BPM, and VORP.

[parsehtml]<iframe src="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=DjtmG&output=iframe" width=1000 height=294 scrolling=auto>
</iframe>[/parsehtml]
I removed guys who have not played 50 minutes. These numbers should all be taken with a big dose of "small sample size" until the player gets over 500 minutes.
 
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Kyrie's turnover percentage is simply sick. Not something you notice in the flow because it's more something not happening than a particular play/event, but it sure makes a difference in the score.
 
As of this morning, the Cavs are in top 10 in points per game (#9) and points allowed against opponents (#9).

Quite the turn around defensively.
 
in the last ten:

SOS .541
NetRtg +15.6
+/- 8.6 points

someone help me ut.. if we play at a pace of around 93, how is there souch a huge differential?
 
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Wanted to bump this thread and point out that the Cavs starting lineup is more than 15 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Tristan in instead of Varejao. They are also more than 20 points better on offense.

With Tristan and the rest of the starters, the offensive and defensive ratings are: 124.1/87.8

With Varejao and the starters, the offensive and defensive ratings are: 103.6/104.5

That is a +36 difference with Tristan and a -1 difference with Varejao. (Note that the Tristan lineup has played 79 minutes together and the Varejao lineup has played 215.)

Blatt needs to make the switch. I'm not sure why it has even gone on this long.

I would also be in favor of Delly starting over Marion, but that's another story.
 
Blatt needs to make the switch. I'm not sure why it has even gone on this long.

It's hard to make a change during an 8 game win streak.
 
Also, wish there was a metric that could properly account for outliers. if a player plays at a 4 for 75% of the season and plays at a 20 for 25%, their stats show them as a flat 8... Should be some way to tell that they normally play about half as well as that 8 and on occasion play out of this world.

I feel a lot of salaries would change with this consideration
 
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im not sure I understand the VORP rating...

Also, wish there was a metric that could properly account for outliers. if a player plays at a 4 for 75% of the season and plays at a 20 for 25%, their stats show them as a flat 8... Should be some way to tell that they normally play about half as well as that 8 and on occasion play out of this world.

I feel a lot of salaries would change with this consideration

Watch the games?
 
Watch the games?

you know what I mean. No one's able to watch every game, there's a stat for everything else, this seems like a big one thats missing. Whether its a front office or the casual fan that thinks Dion is flat out good or bad etc
 
im not sure I understand the VORP rating...

Also, wish there was a metric that could properly account for outliers. if a player plays at a 4 for 75% of the season and plays at a 20 for 25%, their stats show them as a flat 8... Should be some way to tell that they normally play about half as well as that 8 and on occasion play out of this world.

I feel a lot of salaries would change with this consideration

The VORP rating is just like their Box Score Plus-Minus stat (an estimate of a player's contribution across 100 possessions) except it's weighted against replacement level players instead of league-average players (like BPM).

There's very few league-average players available to teams right now, the majority of new players coming into the league midseason are D-Leaguers and well below-average NBA players.
 

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