I really wish I knew when “developmental QBs” became a legitimate strategy for solving a QB issue because right now, you can count the number of late pick QBs starting in the NFL on your hand.
Assuming the Browns/Bills/Titans QB spots are TBD, Mallett re-signs as intended and Winston is going #1, here’s how it shakes out where NFL starters have been picked.
Top 5 (45%): Bortles, Bradford, Griffin III, Luck, Manning, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Rivers, Ryan, A. Smith, Stafford, Winston
Picks 6-16 (10%): Cutler, Tannehill, Roethlisberger
Picks 16-32 (10%): Bridgewater, Flacco, Rodgers
2nd round (18%): Brees, Carr, Dalton, Kaepernick, G. Smith
3rd round (10%): Foles, Mallett, Wilson
4th-5th round (0%):
6th-UDFA (7%): Brady, Romo
This is without Mariota or Sanchez in the picture. Aside from Brady and Romo a decade ago, there isn’t a starter in the NFL that was drafted on Day 3. And to be honest, aside from Brees and Wilson, the Day 2 starters look incredibly mediocre and half of their teams want to replace them. Compare the number of starters to the number of picks used and it’s an even bleaker picture.
It may not make sense to everyone to trade up into the Top 5 for Mariota because of the price involved for somewhat of a projection player... but let's not pretend we're doing anything more than buying a lottery ticket if we're hoping to get a long term starter out of a Day 2/Day 3 guy.