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Cleveland Indians 2018-2019 Offseason Outlook

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This doesn’t combat my point though

The Indians have done a terrific job of drafting and put together a great team

That doesn’t mean fans who get very emotionally invested in particular players trust that when the time comes that those players will be retained

Let me put it this way: in some hypothetical miracle world where we retained Lindor and Ramirez I would expect the relationship between the Dolans and fans to recover more than if we were to literally win a World Series next year

I think it would make the people who yell "Attendance is poor because Dolans are cheap!" look even stupider than they do today.

I don't think it would drastically change attendance. I think the answer lies outside of sports.

I think the days of our attendance relying on suburban families driving to the ballpark is over. The way to increase attendance is to continue to grow the downtown population. If you can walk to the ballpark, man is it amazing having season tickets. The Indians are the cheapest ticket around, the amenities at Progressive Field are top notch, and nothing beats a summer night at the ballpark. If you have to get the kids home from school, both spouses home, then drive 30 minutes in, battle traffic for parking, pay to park, then battle traffic again on the way out, after your kids bedtime, that's not entertainment--that's a chore.

Besides the White Sox being super low, and the Brewers and Cardinals being higher than expected, MLB attendance pretty closely mirrors the downtown population.
 
Here's my question then (I'm not super versed in analytics like you are):

Say the batters due up in the inning for the Tribe are Leonys Martin, Roberto Perez, and then top of the order, Frankie Lindor.

Martin hits a leadoff single and is a pretty solid runner (roughly top-5 on the Indians in speed last season). IF (the big if) Roberto Perez can execute the bunt, wouldn't you rather take that, guarantee that Martin gets to second (and that Perez doesn't hit into a double play) and let Lindor/Santana/Ramirez get the chance to knock him in from scoring position? None of them are now at serious risk for hitting into an inning ending double play either.

Now if the players in the situation were different, lets say that Lindor hits the leadoff single here and has Santana and Ramirez following him. Those two are obviously far better hitters than Perez, so you'd let them swing away and let the cards fall where they may.

My question I guess is, if you have a guy who was awful at the dish last year like Perez at the plate with no outs and the leadoff guy is on, is it seriously a lower chance at a run if you burn the out to guarantee the leadoff man goes to second and then let the lineup flip over for your good hitters to have two outs to get him in? There's a solid chance that Perez is striking out, hitting a weak pop, or into a double play and the runner at first is stranded there anyways or eliminated.

I might have worded that confusingly, but that was my line of thinking.

@BimboColesHair @AZ_ @Derek

Still better off letting Perez swing away. He has a .298 OBP% for his career, so there’s a 30% chance he advances the runner without creating an out.

There’s also the added chance that he advances the runner with an out while swinging away.

Also, if the next guy clubs a HR or another XBH, the sacrifice would be rendered moot anyways.

This isn’t even taking into account that sacrifice bunts aren’t always “successful”
 
I will say there is one small exception to the no bunt rule.

Admittedly, moving a guy from 2nd to 3rd and taking the first out of the inning slightly increases the expectancy of exactly one run in that inning. It still decreases the overall expectancy, but if all you need is 1 run late, that’s not a bad play.
 
This doesn’t combat my point though

The Indians have done a terrific job of drafting and put together a great team

That doesn’t mean fans who get very emotionally invested in particular players trust that when the time comes that those players will be retained

Let me put it this way: in some hypothetical miracle world where we retained Lindor and Ramirez I would expect the relationship between the Dolans and fans to recover more than if we were to literally win a World Series next year

We are always moving the goal posts for why attendance is so low.

"They don't spend money" - until they did...but attendance was still low.

"They don't win consistently" - until they won 3 straight Division titles and stand as a favorite for a 4th...but attendance was still low.

The reality is Joe Cleveland fan just isn't going to come out unless it's Dollar Dogs, Fireworks, or a Playoff game. I don't know why - but they don't. So this is what we'll have - windows of contending when our core is mostly pre-arb.
 
I think it would make the people who yell "Attendance is poor because Dolans are cheap!" look even stupider than they do today.

I don't think it would drastically change attendance. I think the answer lies outside of sports.

I think the days of our attendance relying on suburban families driving to the ballpark is over. The way to increase attendance is to continue to grow the downtown population. If you can walk to the ballpark, man is it amazing having season tickets. The Indians are the cheapest ticket around, the amenities at Progressive Field are top notch, and nothing beats a summer night at the ballpark. If you have to get the kids home from school, both spouses home, then drive 30 minutes in, battle traffic for parking, pay to park, then battle traffic again on the way out, after your kids bedtime, that's not entertainment--that's a chore.

Besides the White Sox being super low, and the Brewers and Cardinals being higher than expected, MLB attendance pretty closely mirrors the downtown population.
I agree with this too. But I do think that there are a lot of fans who feel spurned from the past and have a hard time trusting the Indians

For a long time I was that way too. Then I accepted baseball for what it is and realized I needed to lower my expectations and enjoy the players while they’re cheap. Because it’s just never going to be the case that we have a guy like Lindor throughout the entirety of his career
 
I agree with this too. But I do think that there are a lot of fans who feel spurned from the past and have a hard time trusting the Indians

For a long time I was that way too. Then I accepted baseball for what it is and realized I needed to lower my expectations and enjoy the players while they’re cheap. Because it’s just never going to be the case that we have a guy like Lindor throughout the entirety of his career


It's weird because in a city where they have consistently over the last 30 years been the most consistently contending franchise where they actually have stars that they have been able to develop/acquire in trades it then results in them being penalized because the mechanics of there sport put them at a disadvantage to keep around said stars.

Don't get me wrong I didn't like getting rid of CC and Lee but that points been getting battered home for a decade now. When does the value of that move get outweighed by the relatively consistent competitive teams that have been getting put out there lately.
 
1) It's a throwaway comment to the media
2) I never said his comment holds no value

Jason Kipnis gave a quote to a media member after losing a playoff series.

It would be foolish to hold that up as truth of anything. He's just giving them an answer so he can move on with things.


So, its foolish to hold it as truth of ANYTHING, as he's giving it to move on with things, but yet it can have value....which is it?

Or, should be ignored yet listened to when you, or someone you agree with, believes it should be?

lol. Whatever dude.
 
Hunter Renfroe
Manuel Margot
Adrian Morejon
Chris Paddack

That gets me to the finish line probably.
 
Acceptable?

A top pitching prospect in AA ball or higher, a solid hitting prospect, an MLB ready bat at a position of need with 4-5 years of cheap team control left, and a solid reliever with a couple years of arbitration left.

So something like Logan Allen, Josh Naylor, Franmil Reyes, and someone like Kirby Yates.

Realistic?

None of the names mentioned as trade targets by media members have seemed realistic from the Indians point of view, so it's hard to say. I do believe the reports that say they are looking for an absolute haul for either Kluber or Bauer, I've heard this through multiple outlets, but it's hard to think of something realistic considering what's been said to this point.

I think the most realistic thing currently is Kluber and Bauer are both on the Indians roster come Opening Day.

Your proposal is not enough for me. I want a a MLB outfielder Renfroe, A bullpen piece Yates, and two top 100 prospects Paddack or Urias with Logan Allen.
 
By the way, we have an attendance thread in the Indians forum, to prevent all Indians threads from veering towards attendance talk.

Continue the attendance talk in there. Thanks.

As Indians fans do you really expect us to attend the attendance thread in high numbers?
 
Your proposal is not enough for me. I want a a MLB outfielder Renfroe, A bullpen piece Yates, and two top 100 prospects Paddack or Urias with Logan Allen.

Reyes is an MLB outfielder...and I'm not a Renfroe fan one bit.

And the Indians aren't going to get 2 solid MLB pieces on top of 2 top 100 prospects in a deal for Kluber or Bauer...they'll never be traded if that's what the Indians want.
 
The Indians actually have very good TV ratings, probably towards the top in baseball but they have poor attendance which doesn’t help keep this team together.

@MoFlo I agree attendance talk should normally be in its own thread, but attendance is the reason why we traded Gomes and we aren’t really adding any high profiled player this offseason. If we sold out most nights and got to the 35k area in tickets sold on an average night, then we would have already gotten a Marwin, Pollock etc to add to the roster we had. Still may have traded EE to get a Bauers (long term it just made to much sense) but the Dolan’s cheap stuff wouldn’t be showing up.

If anyone looks at the big picture, the Dolans haven’t been cheap since Francona got here and Antonetti has been the main guy running the team. We have added salary and always in season went and got guys, Miller, Bruce, Hand etc. Saying the Dolans are cheap just so ignorance since they actually are trying now from that point of view to make this team a winner, year in and year out.

The biggest problem isn’t the fact we aren’t trying it’s the fact, Cleveland in general is a smaller market than it was in the 90s when it comes to actual people to go to the games (Part of the Rust Belt) with so many national/international chains of companies leaving) while the prices of players has astronomically jumped in the last ten years. With no top cap for big market teams and the fact the revenue will never support a top 10-15 range payroll, while the payroll around baseball goes up, it’s going to be hard to run a team in Cleveland without shared revenues and/or some type of hard cap in baseball.

Now personally I think they will look to acquire somehow another hitter, but I don’t expect more than 10 mil this off season to be added and maybe 5ish during the season if need be. Also we won’t trade Kluber unless the deal is equal to what other teams have gotten for guys like Sale. So if Spring training we start with Kluber then he will be here for the season without a doubt. Indians have drawn the line in the sand, this is what they want, meet it or it won’t work. I’m sure if a team wants to trade less, they have to take Kipnis’s contract so we can sign someone else. I don’t personally like the way things are looking, so it will be up to Bauers, Luplow, Allen, etc to become everyday players with the current setup.
 

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