Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[avs2000]

Colin looking better by the minute;

Report: Kyrie Irving opting out of Celtics contract

Will he sign with Nets?

www.yahoo.com

Colin had a excellent rookie season for a 19 year old. Things to work. Of course
Glad kyrie is gone. Let him go ruin the Nets

 

[sailfish]

Colin had a excellent rookie season for a 19 year old. Things to work. Of course
Glad kyrie is gone. Let him go ruin the Nets

He’s a drama queen. Wherever Kyrie goes he’ll get tired of it after about 2-3 years and be ready for another change. If there were ever a perfect pairing, it’s Kyrie & KD and I’m not taking about their basketball abilities either...

 

[Alec]

Kemba Walker vs Sexton. Odd comparison I know.

In his rookie season (age 20), Collin played in all 82 games (started 72) and averaged 16-3-3 in ~32 MPG. His usage was 25.2. He shot 40% from 3, 44% from 2.

In his rookie season (age 21), Kemba played in 66 games (started 25), and averaged 12-3.5-4.5 in ~27 mpg. His usage was 25.2. He shot 30% from 3, 39% from 2.

Kemba's progression:

Kemba's career has gone through a few phases. Phase I was his rookie year noted above. Phase II was years 2 through 4 (ages 22-24). Phase III is years 5-present (age 25-on).

Phase II: Kemba averaged approximately 17.5-3.7-5.7. Shot 32% from 3, 43% from 2, 82% FT. On approximately 26% usage and 35 MPG playing time. The biggest difference between Phase II Kemba and rookie Kemba is playing time and the 2's just started going in more. The difference between rookie Sexton and Phase II Kemba? I don't think terribly much. Kemba was tasked with distributing more and Sexton was asked to score more.

Phase III Kemba is averaging approximately 23-4-5.5. He's now shooting 38% from 3, 47.5% from 2, 85% FT. Usage nearing 29% and still about 35 MPG. TS% around 56%.

The biggest difference between Phase II and III Kemba, he again raised better his shooting, gaining 6% on his 3PT and a few percent on the 2s and FTs. He also has the ball in his hands more. He, somehow, managed to increase his volume fairly significantly while getting better at putting the ball in the hole. He only turns the ball over 2 times per game. In terms of distribution, he continued to rack up about 5-6 assists per night.

What does Sexton need to do:

I don't think we could realistically ask Sexton to improve his efficiency over the next couple years. If he can nearly maintain his percentages while creeping up his usage or minutes, that's a huge win. Some improved defense would be nice too. Rookie Sexton shot the 3 better than prime Kemba and wasn't far behind prime Kemba in the other percentages. And bear in mind, Sexton totally turned a corner post ASG and showed the ability to finish with both hands, beat elite defenders off the bounce. Sexton who can continue to score the ball with a bit more volume and learn how to pass is prime Kemba, or better.

Sexton was clearly tasked with scoring and he distributing didn't appear to be a priority. it sounds like that will continue with the addition of Garland as a primary distributor.

There's really no reason why sophomore Sexton can't play 35 MPG in 70+ games. He's in crazy shape. I'm hoping for 35 MPG, 20-4-3, 25% USG, 37.5%+ 3's. That's an extremely valuable player. Though I think the only path to potential all-stardom would be in a Charlotte-like situation where he's just handed the reigns every night and told to go off. A non-playoff team without tantalizing talent on the roster.

 

[NMCav]

Kemba Walker vs Sexton. Odd comparison I know.

In his rookie season (age 20), Collin played in all 82 games (started 72) and averaged 16-3-3 in ~32 MPG. His usage was 25.2. He shot 40% from 3, 44% from 2.

In his rookie season (age 21), Kemba played in 66 games (started 25), and averaged 12-3.5-4.5 in ~27 mpg. His usage was 25.2. He shot 30% from 3, 39% from 2.

Kemba's progression:

Kemba's career has gone through a few phases. Phase I was his rookie year noted above. Phase II was years 2 through 4 (ages 22-24). Phase III is years 5-present (age 25-on).

Phase II: Kemba averaged approximately 17.5-3.7-5.7. Shot 32% from 3, 43% from 2, 82% FT. On approximately 26% usage and 35 MPG playing time. The biggest difference between Phase II Kemba and rookie Kemba is playing time and the 2's just started going in more. The difference between rookie Sexton and Phase II Kemba? I don't think terribly much. Kemba was tasked with distributing more and Sexton was asked to score more.

Phase III Kemba is averaging approximately 23-4-5.5. He's now shooting 38% from 3, 47.5% from 2, 85% FT. Usage nearing 29% and still about 35 MPG. TS% around 56%.

The biggest difference between Phase II and III Kemba, he again raised better his shooting, gaining 6% on his 3PT and a few percent on the 2s and FTs. He also has the ball in his hands more. He, somehow, managed to increase his volume fairly significantly while getting better at putting the ball in the hole. He only turns the ball over 2 times per game. In terms of distribution, he continued to rack up about 5-6 assists per night.

What does Sexton need to do:

I don't think we could realistically ask Sexton to improve his efficiency over the next couple years. If he can nearly maintain his percentages while creeping up his usage or minutes, that's a huge win. Some improved defense would be nice too. Rookie Sexton shot the 3 better than prime Kemba and wasn't far behind prime Kemba in the other percentages. And bear in mind, Sexton totally turned a corner post ASG and showed the ability to finish with both hands, beat elite defenders off the bounce. Sexton who can continue to score the ball with a bit more volume and learn how to pass is prime Kemba, or better.

Sexton was clearly tasked with scoring and he distributing didn't appear to be a priority. it sounds like that will continue with the addition of Garland as a primary distributor.

There's really no reason why sophomore Sexton can't play 35 MPG in 70+ games. He's in crazy shape. I'm hoping for 35 MPG, 20-4-3, 25% USG, 37.5%+ 3's. That's an extremely valuable player. Though I think the only path to potential all-stardom would be in a Charlotte-like situation where he's just handed the reigns every night and told to go off. A non-playoff team without tantalizing talent on the roster.

Technically for Sexton it was his age 19 season. Since he was 19 when the season started.

I see the Kemba/Sexton comparison though. Both are shorter score first guards who came in with questionable range on their shots. Both love the Mid Range game as well.

 

[Funkmastabuck]

I appreciate your thorough comparison, Alec.

As I think about what Sexton can become as a player, I think he'll either need to develop his game a bit as a playmaker, finding a way to become a 7 assist per game guy, not 3. Or he'll need to really be a scorer.

So can he be a 21 pts, 7 assists guy in a few years? Or perhaps 25 pts, 5 assists? And do so efficiently? Then maybe he can find a way to stick as a starter and not a 6th man.

But then there's that issue of defense and how you start Garland and Sexton together. That, I cannot really figure out. Who is going to have any success guarding a 6'7" shooting guard?

 

[Tonedef75]

I appreciate your thorough comparison, Alec.

As I think about what Sexton can become as a player, I think he'll either need to develop his game a bit as a playmaker, finding a way to become a 7 assist per game guy, not 3. Or he'll need to really be a scorer.

So can he be a 21 pts, 7 assists guy in a few years? Or perhaps 25 pts, 5 assists? And do so efficiently? Then maybe he can find a way to stick as a starter and not a 6th man.

But then there's that issue of defense and how you start Garland and Sexton together. That, I cannot really figure out. Who is going to have any success guarding a 6'7" shooting guard?

Fortunately, I don’t think we need to worry how well they will work together defensively for at least a year. I’d imagine Sexton would start at PG next year under the pretense that Garland is a rookie. They most likely won’t start sharing significant court time until at least midway through the season. Hopefully the coaching staff will spot something that could possibly help them to function with minimal issues defensively so that they can coexist later down the line.

 

[J_J]

Great post Alec.

Koby and the staff mentioned to Collin before the draft that a possibility in drafting Garland. Collin reacted positively and immediately said we can be like Portland. Collin watched a lot of Portland games in the playoffs in seeing how these 2 guards can play together. Collin is still working his stroke and wants to do well together with Garland as well as play defense. It will take some time but Collin is willing to learn.

 

[CBBI]

Kemba Walker vs Sexton. Odd comparison I know.

In his rookie season (age 20), Collin played in all 82 games (started 72) and averaged 16-3-3 in ~32 MPG. His usage was 25.2. He shot 40% from 3, 44% from 2.

In his rookie season (age 21), Kemba played in 66 games (started 25), and averaged 12-3.5-4.5 in ~27 mpg. His usage was 25.2. He shot 30% from 3, 39% from 2.

Kemba's progression:

Kemba's career has gone through a few phases. Phase I was his rookie year noted above. Phase II was years 2 through 4 (ages 22-24). Phase III is years 5-present (age 25-on).

Phase II: Kemba averaged approximately 17.5-3.7-5.7. Shot 32% from 3, 43% from 2, 82% FT. On approximately 26% usage and 35 MPG playing time. The biggest difference between Phase II Kemba and rookie Kemba is playing time and the 2's just started going in more. The difference between rookie Sexton and Phase II Kemba? I don't think terribly much. Kemba was tasked with distributing more and Sexton was asked to score more.

Phase III Kemba is averaging approximately 23-4-5.5. He's now shooting 38% from 3, 47.5% from 2, 85% FT. Usage nearing 29% and still about 35 MPG. TS% around 56%.

The biggest difference between Phase II and III Kemba, he again raised better his shooting, gaining 6% on his 3PT and a few percent on the 2s and FTs. He also has the ball in his hands more. He, somehow, managed to increase his volume fairly significantly while getting better at putting the ball in the hole. He only turns the ball over 2 times per game. In terms of distribution, he continued to rack up about 5-6 assists per night.

What does Sexton need to do:

I don't think we could realistically ask Sexton to improve his efficiency over the next couple years. If he can nearly maintain his percentages while creeping up his usage or minutes, that's a huge win. Some improved defense would be nice too. Rookie Sexton shot the 3 better than prime Kemba and wasn't far behind prime Kemba in the other percentages. And bear in mind, Sexton totally turned a corner post ASG and showed the ability to finish with both hands, beat elite defenders off the bounce. Sexton who can continue to score the ball with a bit more volume and learn how to pass is prime Kemba, or better.

Sexton was clearly tasked with scoring and he distributing didn't appear to be a priority. it sounds like that will continue with the addition of Garland as a primary distributor.

There's really no reason why sophomore Sexton can't play 35 MPG in 70+ games. He's in crazy shape. I'm hoping for 35 MPG, 20-4-3, 25% USG, 37.5%+ 3's. That's an extremely valuable player. Though I think the only path to potential all-stardom would be in a Charlotte-like situation where he's just handed the reigns every night and told to go off. A non-playoff team without tantalizing talent on the roster.

Great job with the research here.

My main retort would be that Kemba was a 30.2 AST% guy as a rookie and Sexton was a 15.3 AST% guy.

I think it’s possible that Sexton could become a Kemba caliber scorer with more experience. If Sexton can see a spike in his FT rate while maintaining his shooting from his rookie year, he has a legitimate chance to be a very efficient NBA scorer.

The problem is, Kemba - who I would not consider an elite passer/playmaker for others - stepped into the NBA as literally double the playmaker that Sexton was as a rookie.

I’m also not at all convinced that more on-ball PG reps are really going to make Sexton a significant better playmaker. He’s just not natural at it. He needs to see guys come open because he doesn’t anticipate them coming open and even when he sees it, he usually doesn’t try and make the pass anyway.

Guys just rarely start their careers with Sexton’s level of tunnel vision/lack of feel as a passer and improve it dramatically. If Sexton does it, he’ll be a major outlier.

Even if Sexton does become a really dynamic scorer, which isn’t a guarantee, his lack of playmaking combined with his lack of defense might make him a 6th man/3rd guard on a good team anyway.

 

[Alec]

Agree with most all of that CBBI. Sexton becoming an average NBA floor general would be an even greater feat than somehow turning himself into this elite 3P shooter, which he somehow did (for one season, anyway). No guys come to mind for that particular feat.

He seemed phrenetic on the court last season. He became less deliberate as time went on but the natural PGs have a smoothness and anticipation to their game that I’m not sure can be learned as a grown man.

 

[CBBI]

Agree with most all of that CBBI. Sexton becoming an average NBA floor general would be an even greater feat than somehow turning himself into this elite 3P shooter, which he somehow did (for one season, anyway). No guys come to mind for that particular feat.

He seemed phrenetic on the court last season. He became less deliberate as time went on but the natural PGs have a smoothness and anticipation to their game that I’m not sure can be learned as a grown man.

I admit I was incredibly down on Sexton as a prospect and early in his rookie year.

But if his shooting proves to be legitimate and he really is going to be a 40% 3PT, 85% FT guy, he's really not THAT far away from being a really efficient and dynamic NBA scorer.

1. Take fewer midrange jumpers. 35.2% of his shots came between 11-23 feet. That's just too much. Those shots simply aren't efficient enough for nearly all players.
2. Take more threes. If you're a 40% 3PT shooter, you gotta take more than 24.5% of your shots from three. Would love to see his midrange % and 3PT % inverted next year.
3. Draw more fouls. This one isn't so much a shot selection thing as it is simply a skill he needs to improve upon. A .211 FTR is surprisingly low for a guy quite literally lived at the FT line in college.

If he does all three of those things, everyone will be really thrilled regardless of if he starts or comes off the bench.

The best example I can think of when it comes to a player seeing a dramatic spike as a playmaker would be D'Angelo Russell. His AST% has increased every year and has almost doubled from year 1 to year 4, but even he started out as a rookie on a higher level than Sexton did.

 

[Man Called X]

Agree with most all of that CBBI. Sexton becoming an average NBA floor general would be an even greater feat than somehow turning himself into this elite 3P shooter, which he somehow did (for one season, anyway). No guys come to mind for that particular feat.

He seemed phrenetic on the court last season. He became less deliberate as time went on but the natural PGs have a smoothness and anticipation to their game that I’m not sure can be learned as a grown man.

The closest I could think of would be Chauncey Billups.

 

[J_J]

Actually his mid range shots have reduced throughout the season. Towards the end, he was either going for layup or shooting from downtown. I do agree he needs to shoot less mid range shots for better efficiency.

 

[J_J]

One thing to add - I do not think it is fair to judge on Sexton’s defense. Our defense identity - did we really even have one last year?

Sexton does have very quick feet and has great lateral quickness but his technique does not cover a ton of ground which I feel he struggled against quicker athletes. He does a good job on not giving space to shooters outside in college but I didn’t see that much last year and felt was too much scheme and the coaches at fault. When he does play with effort, he gets low and squares the defender. The problem in his technique is that is body is often too high when the defender gets the ball. That allows the ballplayer to have the advantage in taking the first step to the basket. He does need to work better on off the ball defense but I have more confidence in the staff to help not just him but the team as well. I believe with right coaching and technique Collin can improve. Not saying he can be outstanding but can at least be average/decent with his work ethic and consistent effort.

 

[Jordan]

One thing to add - I do not think it is fair to judge on Sexton’s defense. Our defense identity - did we really even have one last year?

Sexton does have very quick feet and has great lateral quickness but his technique does not cover a ton of ground which I feel he struggled against quicker athletes. He does a good job on not giving space to shooters outside in college but I didn’t see that much last year and felt was too much scheme and the coaches at fault. When he does play with effort, he gets low and squares the defender. The problem in his technique is that is body is often too high when the defender gets the ball. That allows the ballplayer to have the advantage in taking the first step to the basket. He does need to work better on off the ball defense but I have more confidence in the staff to help not just him but the team as well. I believe with right coaching and technique Collin can improve. Not saying he can be outstanding but can at least be average/decent with his work ethic and consistent effort.

This is just false. His lateral quickness is not bad, but it has never been a strength on defense. He made up for it in college by being incredibly physical on the ball and using his length as an advantage. It is why he actually may be a decent two-guard from a defensive standpoint. That's where he needs to show improvement. Use his physical attributes to his advantage.

 

[Nathan S]

Great job with the research here.

My main retort would be that Kemba was a 30.2 AST% guy as a rookie and Sexton was a 15.3 AST% guy.

I think it’s possible that Sexton could become a Kemba caliber scorer with more experience. If Sexton can see a spike in his FT rate while maintaining his shooting from his rookie year, he has a legitimate chance to be a very efficient NBA scorer.

The problem is, Kemba - who I would not consider an elite passer/playmaker for others - stepped into the NBA as literally double the playmaker that Sexton was as a rookie.

I’m also not at all convinced that more on-ball PG reps are really going to make Sexton a significant better playmaker. He’s just not natural at it. He needs to see guys come open because he doesn’t anticipate them coming open and even when he sees it, he usually doesn’t try and make the pass anyway.

Guys just rarely start their careers with Sexton’s level of tunnel vision/lack of feel as a passer and improve it dramatically. If Sexton does it, he’ll be a major outlier.

Even if Sexton does become a really dynamic scorer, which isn’t a guarantee, his lack of playmaking combined with his lack of defense might make him a 6th man/3rd guard on a good team anyway.

Agree it's unlikely that Sexton becomes a competent point guard, but it's not unheard of for a player to be a late bloomer in that department. Looking around at the All-NBA guards, you have Curry and Harden on the first team, Lillard and Irving on the second team, and Westbrook and Kemba on the third team. Out of all of them, Kyrie and Westbrook are the only two who were obviously better floor generals than Sexton at the same age. Last year DeRozan and Oladipo were All-NBA guards, and they were even more raw at age 20. That's not to say Sexton will follow the same development curve as those guys, but I don't think he's been so hopeless that you can rule it out either.