NBA Sophs Better Than Class of 2014?
It was once known as a "one-player draft." But now that we're seeing Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond and company are in the NBA, David Thorpe says this class is likely better than the celebrated class of 2014.
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Not Like A Bosh
The draft class of 2012 was never considered as one that would be talked about for years, but like some of the players in this group, time has revealed a lot more to be excited about. This class has future MVP winners, league leaders in a number of statistical categories and plenty of impact players and star power. It should also feature future Olympians, as well as some guys who start for title teams.
There are still three names that are pulling much of the weight for this group, but the "middle class" is getting richer each month. Everyone is excited about the upcoming draft class this June, and while it will have no problem outshining the current crop of rookies, there is serious doubt it can top what this sophomore class is in the process of accomplishing. From top to bottom, these 20 guys can measure up to about any class seen in recent years.
Davis
1. Anthony Davis, Pelicans
There was never a doubt in any executive's mind that Davis was not going to be a special player. The only question was when it was going to happen. There was a legitimate concern that Davis would need a few years to develop on offense -- he had a smooth jumper but was so frail. But it only took one month -- November 2013 -- for Davis to show everyone that this was going to be the year he ascended into elite status.
How elite is he? He is one of only five men who averages 20 or more points per game while grabbing at least 10 boards a night. The other four are all strong men who also have skill and craft (Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, DeMarcus Cousins and LaMarcus Aldridge). But of these elite five, only Davis blocks more than two shots per game (2.8). It's a staggering achievement, one that requires special shooting and scoring skills to hit that 20 PPG mark, toughness and determination to fight the behemoths of the NBA nightly for 10-plus rebounds, plus either great size or agility (or both) to be that kind of a shot-blocker.
Two seasons ago, if New Orleans executives were told that Davis would average 20 PPG, or 10 RPG, or block over 2 shots per game by season two, they'd have been happy for any of those numbers.
There is talk of Andrew Wiggins being the closest thing to LeBron James to enter the draft since 2003. But it is Davis, who is just 21, who has a chance to be the next "best player in the world" after LeBron and Durant release their hold on the league.
Drummond
2. Andre Drummond, Pistons
As much as Davis has been a surprise because of how rapidly he has become an elite player, Drummond has been a surprise in that he has become an every-night star.
The league is filled with men who package a lot of average games around some amazing ones, but what Drummond is doing in almost every game is very symbolic of his overall place in the league as one of the finest young talents. Consider that in 2014, he has only made fewer than half of his shots in four games, and in two of those games he was limited because of fouls. He's done this while averaging double figures in scoring in each month. He's also never averaged fewer than 12 rebounds a game for any month this year. This from a player where words like "heartbeat" and "motor" were thrown about, negatively, during the draft process.
Once Drummond increases his scoring efforts (something his team has to help him with as he is not a guard), he'll immediately join MVP conversations. April has been the best month of his career, possibly signaling his readiness for those kinds of discussions as early as next season.
Lillard
3. Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
Lillard's play this season gives this class three men who will be rated as elite players for the foreseeable future. That puts the draft class of 2012 on a special level.
Lillard's combination of quickness and craft with the ball makes him a difficult man to stay in front of, and then when you factor in his shooting, he joins Stephen Curry as the top shooters/drivers in the league among point guards.
His quick trigger and incredible range (his name is mentioned often when discussing a 4-point line) helps Portland's offense by pulling one defender far from the basket almost all the time. That spacing enables the Blazers to have bigger gaps to attack, among other things -- one big reason why they are third in the NBA in turnover rate. Lillard's steady hand with the ball helps there, too.
He's not going to compete for MVP and all-league honors like Drummond and Davis will, but he is good enough to be the MVP of a playoff series, including an NBA Finals.
Jones
4. Terrence Jones, Rockets
If Houston performs to its optimum level in the playoffs, Jones has the best chance to be the only impact player from this class to make the NBA's final four. He has been a real blessing to the Rockets' offense, a guy with a great feel for when to cut, pass, shoot or drive. And he can get a lot better.
Jones is not yet a consistent 3-point threat, but he looks like he should be by as early as next season, and that would make Dwight Howard and James Harden even more challenging for opponents to slow down. Today, Jones still makes his All-Star teammates better by punishing defenses that are mostly focused on those two men; the second-year man is one of about 20 players who make more than half of their shots while making at least five shots a game.
Valanciunas
5. Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors
Like most big men, Valanciunas is coming on as he grows into his body. In fact, based on how he is playing currently (the best stretch of basketball in his life), he might be headed toward the top three of this class by next year.
The Raps are one of the best stories, and getting their big man to play with great competitiveness has been part of the success. He's always had the soft hands, skill, size and talent to be a special player.
Valanciunas does not have the upside of Davis or Drummond, as he just won't ever overwhelm opponents with athleticism, but he can still be a franchise-level big man. He's well on his way there now.
Plumlee
6. Miles Plumlee, Suns
Sometimes the sum of the parts is better than what you would expect, and that is the case with Phoenix this season. Alongside Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Channing Frye and P.J. Tucker, Plumlee has helped anchor a unit that is outscoring opponents by over 13 points per 48 minutes. Replace Plumlee with Markieff Morris and that unit is even better, so it's not that Plumlee is the biggest reason the Suns or that unit are so effective.
The key here is that because Plumlee is able to help that group so much, it saves both Frye and Morris from getting too banged up to perform as well as they are currently playing. Absent Plumlee's ability to finish paint shots, stay within his role and defend the paint, the Suns could not keep up their stellar level of play all season as they have done. He has a chance to grow into a more productive player as part of their core if he can add some range to his shot and a willingness to shoot it.
Beal
7. Bradley Beal, Wizards
It was always expected that Beal would be a great shooter, so it's no surprise that he already is. That fact alone has helped the Wizards a great deal, opening up driving lanes for John Wall and the paint for Marcin Gortat.
Beal is still a long way from being an All-Star, though, as he needs to improve on making shots inside the 3-point line and earn more free throw attempts. But his secret talent, hidden by his sweet-shooting stroke, is that he is a very good "basketball player" in terms of making the simple play -- easy passes, boxing out his man, etc.
He is currently playing his best ball, despite poor 3-point shooting -- that is a strong sign he is figuring out the other parts of the game.
Henson
8. John Henson, Bucks
Henson's case for being a top-10 player on this list is a bit problematic. While Davis and Drummond have been superlative on lotto teams, Henson has been only good on a terrible team. But had he been allowed to play 32-plus minutes a night, who knows what would have happened?
Henson has had enough strong outings against playoff teams this season to suggest he's been one of the top players in this class, and he remains a potential All-Star candidate as he strengthens and develops a better shot. He joins Davis and Drummond as men who can average double-doubles while also being elite shot-blockers -- a rare club.
Ross
9. Terrence Ross, Raptors
Toronto has also enjoyed its breakout season thanks to its second-year wing, who has played a significant role on the team. Ross combines a strong perimeter shot with an excellent ability to make plays in transition. In other words, he's not just a catch-and-shoot threat.
Ross is the third-youngest player averaging better than 39 percent from 3. He's the perfect complement to DeMar DeRozan, who is more scoring focused and needs the ball in his hands more often.
Sullinger
10. Jared Sullinger, Celtics
A few other sophs have put up good numbers on bad teams, but Sullinger gets the nod for the 10th spot thanks to his impact on the glass as well as on the scoreboard. He's proved to be one of the top offensive rebounders in the league, and his soft touch and understanding of how to use his big body to create finishing angles has been a strong part of his game, too.
Sullinger needs to be paired with an athletic shot-blocking big. If Boston can make that happen it will have its post players of the future.
Green
11. Draymond Green, Warriors
The classic case of a guy who does not have great individual metrics but is a key component to helping his team win. Toughness is a talent that has real value on the court.
12. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
Waiters is more productive than most of the players ranked ahead of him, but less efficient overall. He is still the same player that he was last season. Perhaps if he gets moved to a new team -- and away from Kyrie Irving's shadow -- his game will blossom.
13. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats
It's impossible to hide the disappointment in MKG's lack of offensive development after a strong November. But he has been the key defender in Charlotte's starting lineup -- a unit that has performed very well and is the biggest reason the Bobcats are in the playoffs.
14. Patrick Beverley, Rockets
He'd be a top-10 guy on this list if not for his late-season injury. The Rockets desperately miss his tenacity and overall defensive toughness. They are not nearly as good without him on the floor.
15. Jeremy Lamb, Thunder
One of the hardest things for young NBA players to do is make deep shots without taking a lot of them (there are few chances to make adjustments). But Lamb has done a good job in that role this season. There's every reason to think he'll get even better at it for the foreseeable future.
16. Mirza Teletovic, Nets
It's almost unfair that Teletovic is considered a second-year player because he is a very accomplished 28-year-old. His ability to shoot deep 3s has helped Brooklyn's offense -- he has been a part of some second-unit rotations that have been incredibly effective building out leads.
17. Maurice Harkless, Magic
Harkless has improved as the season has evolved and continues to look like, at worst, a solid rotation guy who can amp up a team's athleticism. At best, he can be a starter, now that he has improved his perimeter shooting substantially. Remember, he is still just 20 years old.
18. Brian Roberts, Pelicans
Roberts stepped into a starting role after beating out Austin Rivers when Jrue Holiday got hurt. He has done a solid job helping to keep the Pelicans competitive. But he needs to improve his shooting if he hopes to remain in the rotation next season.
19. Mike Scott, Hawks
The 25-year-old second-year man has put together a solid season, looking like a veteran. Still, with Scott turning 26 this summer and Atlanta having some options in this year's draft, his future is uncertain.
20. Thomas Robinson, Blazers
Robinson's positive contributions to Portland's great season are not fairly measured by his statistics or metrics. He has embraced his role as an energy guy who brings passion to the game -- and that is noteworthy.
David Thorpe
