Looking at it from that standpoint and seeing what would have to happen for him to get traded to the Clips or to the Cavs, I would put my money on the Heat and Wade coming to some sort of compromise.
I agree with you that the smart money is on Wade staying in Miami.
But.... Wade wants the money he invested in Miami
back. I think that's getting lost on in some of the discussion.
He's saying, I opted out of a $42M/2 contract; signed for $16.1M for cap spacing, and you guys gave Bosh a max and are offering Dragic 80/5. Mind you, that offer will go up to a max deal. Almost assuredly some team will want to lock in Dragic on an 80M/4 year deal pushing the Heat to 100M/5.
The Dragic leak is to try to see if Dragic will test the waters; but of course he will. Teams like L.A. and New York would
gladly offer him a max deal. There's also talk that the Pelicans would offer him a full-max.
Heat are kidding themselves with Dragic and they must think Wade's a fool to believe he'd sign for $16M/yr when teams are offering $20M/4 more.
So going back to the original point, Bosh and Dragic will both be making $20M+ this upcoming season. Wade is saying, okay, I want the same deal.
I personally think Wade would sign for less just to stay in Miami. I really believe the reports that he'd be fine at his current salary, but with an extra 2 years of guaranteed salary and a no-trade clause. We'll see this week though.