Ebola...

[The Human Q-Tip]

so exposure/giving someone ebola are two very different things.

Nah, you're reading something into that "exposure" that's not there. Nobody would care about "exposing" other people on a bus to ebola if that wasn't also implying possible transmission, so there wouldn't be any reason for the CDC to agree with the recommendation that infected people shouldn't take public transportation.

So his statement really is a contradiction. What he really meant was that the odds of any one random person catching ebola on a bus are extremely tiny (because they're so unlikely to be sitting next to anyone with ebola), so people shouldn't be afraid to ride the bus. However, the odds of a particular infected person being able to pass it to others on a bus are higher, so the infected shouldn't ride them. Alternatively, you could look at him as trying to discourage infected from riding the bus precisely so other people wouldn't have to worry about it.

OF course, he preferred to lie to get people to do what he wants rather than telling them the truth and trusting them to act accordingly. So, he lies and say you can't get it on a bus rather than saying "it's extremely unlikely you'd get it on the bus, to the point where you shouldn't worry about it."

And that's why I don't believe these assholes, because they feel it is perfectly valid to lie to us if they think it is for the greater good.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Nah, you're reading something into that "exposure" that's not there. Nobody would care about "exposing" other people on a bus to ebola if that wasn't also implying possible transmission, so there wouldn't be any reason for the CDC to agree with the recommendation that infected people shouldn't take public transportation.

So his statement really is a contradiction. What he really meant was that the odds of any one random person catching ebola on a bus are extremely tiny (because they're so unlikely to be sitting next to anyone with ebola), so people shouldn't be afraid to ride the bus. However, the odds of a particular infected person being able to pass it to others on a bus are higher, so the infected shouldn't ride them. Alternatively, you could look at him as trying to discourage infected from riding the bus precisely so other people wouldn't have to worry about it.

OF course, he preferred to lie to get people to do what he wants rather than telling them the truth and trusting them to act accordingly. So, he lies and say you can't get it on a bus rather than saying "it's extremely unlikely you'd get it on the bus, to the point where you shouldn't worry about it."

And that's why I don't believe these assholes, because they feel it is perfectly valid to lie to us if they think it is for the greater good.

[/QUOTE]

holy shit.

in fact youre right, its a mass conspiracy. against you, me, everyone. obama is plotting to take over the country by only infecting the conservatives, and what better place to start than texas. but dont tell anyone.

orrr its more like this. if i told you i had ebola and you couldnt catch it from me unless we swapped bodily fluids somehow, would you sit next to me on a bus, would you get within 20 feet of me, would you get within 100 feet of me. would you tell every living soul within a mile radius i had ebola? would they panic?

once again the flu kills 36000 americans a year, but i dont see a 20 page thread on RCF about that. jesus christ people back away from the ledge, educate yourself. here is a hint, youre not going to get ebola, your friends wont get ebola, your family isnt, your dog isnt, your male prostitute isnt.

do we know everything there is to know about ebola, nope. Do we know enough to know that it isnt a major concern unless we throw all caution to the wind, absolutely.

Once again the flu kills 36000 americans a year, where is teh panic about that? ebola has killed 1.

 

[The Oi]

Shep Smith says to relax.

Why does @Maximus have the world ending every two weeks?

And why does @bob2the2nd suddenly want us all to go on a gender bender?

And why hasn't @gourimoko told us he'd been trying to avoid the thread due to the rampant racism and then come in taking shots at all us paranoid whites?

 

[Sumac13]

Once again the flu kills 36000 americans a year, where is the panic about that? ebola has killed 1.

I don't think the comparison is valid. The case fatality rate of the seasonal flu is less than a half of one percent. Ebola a bit higher. Now, it is just that many people have not been exposed to the ebola virus. Why? Largely, it is due to not being transmitted as easily as the flu virus.

I realize it isn't transmitted as easily as many would fear; nonetheless, until a vaccine is readily available (as with many forms of the flu) I think it prudent to stamp it out in the U.S. immediately.

If for nothing else, to prevent any mass hysteria affecting my 401k.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

in fact youre right, its a mass conspiracy. against you, me, everyone. obama is plotting to take over the country by only infecting the conservatives, and what better place to start than texas. but dont tell anyone.

No mass conspiracy, nor did I claim it was excessively virulent, as you seem to be implying.

I'm sure they view things like this as "white lies", that really don't matter that much because they're not far off from the truth. My point is that their "little lies" they tell for fear of starting a panic actually are more likely to cause a panic, because nothing is more likely to start a panic than a belief that the people in charge are lying.

My suggestion is that they actually just start telling us the unvarnished truth, because I don't think the truth would be that bad. Tell us "yes, it is possible to get it on a bus if you have the one in 150 million shot of sitting next to someone with Ebola, and they just happen to throw up on you. But if we're going to start worrying about stuff that unlikely, then we're all going to end up hiding under tables in our basement."

Don't lie and tell us something ridiculous like it "can't happen". while simultaneously telling us that people with Ebola shouldn't take public transportation because it might spread the disease. It's a facial contradiction that tells us nothing other than the guy in charge is willing to lie.

 

[KI4MVP]

Out of curiosity, when you say 'not allowed to leave', what you mean? Not allowed out of their house? Not allowed to go shopping? Not allowed out in public? Not allowed to have any contact with anyone? Not allowed to drive to … ? How far would one be allowed to drive? Who would monitor them? Would a federal marshall be at their side at all times? Would they be required to wear an ankle monitor? Does the CDC or any city/state/federal agency currently have the authority to impose any of these measures? People say the 'federal government' … as if it is a single entity.

Granted she should not have been on a plane. But, if she were have been allowed to go shopping locally and then infected someone and THAT person got on a plane…PANIC IN THE STREETS. It almost seems that anyone that had any contact should have been put in a quarantined area for a 21 days regardless. No movement of travel allowed. Draconian sure. But hell, be safe. Compensate them afterwards.

That is supposed to be the rule. See this article (full article pasted below).

http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/dr-nancy-snyderman-ebola-quarantine-nbc/2014/10/13/id/600247/


Dr. Nancy Snyderman, NBC's chief medical editor who worked on the same crew as a freelance cameraman infected with Ebola, reportedly broke a voluntary quarantine last week and has now been ordered into mandatory confinement.

Snyderman initially agreed to the 21-day quarantine with the rest of her NBC crew after Ashoka Mukpo, an American freelance cameraman, was diagnosed while working in Liberia. He has since been transported to a Nebraska hospital for treatment.

But, according to PlanetPrinceton.com, Snyderman was spotted sitting in her car outside a restaurant in Hopewell, New Jersey, on Thursday.

Readers told the hyperlocal news site that the 62-year-old doctor sat in the parking lot outside The Peasant Grille while a man picked up a take-out order. There was reportedly one other passenger in the vehicle.

The New Jersey Health Department then ordered a mandatory quarantine for the NBC crew Friday, officials told The Associated Press, but wouldn’t specify who broke the original 21-day agreement.

Health department officials said the crew is being monitored for Ebola out of an abundance of caution, but all members are symptom-free.

"We fully support those guidelines and continue to expect that they be followed," an NBC official told the AP. "Our team are all well with normal temperatures, which they check multiple times a day, and they are also in daily contact with local health officials."

 

[KI4MVP]

I don't think the comparison is valid. The case fatality rate of the seasonal flu is less than a half of one percent. Ebola a bit higher. Now, it is just that many people have not been exposed to the ebola virus. Why? Largely, it is due to not being transmitted as easily as the flu virus.

I realize it isn't transmitted as easily as many would fear; nonetheless, until a vaccine is readily available (as with many forms of the flu) I think it prudent to stamp it out in the U.S. immediately.

If for nothing else, to prevent any mass hysteria affecting my 401k.

the Ebola mortality rate is apparently 70%.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/afric...-70-percent-victims-20141014132345720164.html

 

[Sumac13]

the Ebola mortality rate is apparently 70%.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/afric...-70-percent-victims-20141014132345720164.html

I would call that 'a bit higher'. I suspect that rate would be a lot lower in the U.S. given the facilities here. I would hope.

 

[clevelandrox23]

Georgia Guidestones did add a "2014" inscription stone, just saying.

 

[KI4MVP]

Not that you've ever been deceptive, but this was so bizarre I thought that maybe you missed something. So I read the link, and you're absolutely right. Within the space of a few sentences he said you can't catch it while riding a bus, then said that someone who is infected might give it to someone else while riding the bus. Unbelievable.

I also saw Megyn Kelly question Frieden about the logic of not banning tourist flights, and Frieden was eviscerated when he went to the "we won't be able to get medical help into the country" card. Then I saw some other guy say that he'd spoken to Frieden about it, and his answer in private was that those nations are fledging democracies and a ban on outbound flights to the U.S. would hurt their economies.

I still think that's a crappy reason, but at least it makes some sense in theory. So why won't they advance that justification publicly?

ban the flights and send them aid. When something is contagious and has a 70% mortality rate, it needs to be contained. Why risk it spreading to other countries?

It's not even the 3 known cases that concern me. It's the possibility that there are now other people in the country now who have ebola and don't realize it. Something that could have been completely avoided.

 

[Kyrieville]

Who gives two shits about their economies? I care more about the two American nurses lives than I do about the economy of Liberia. I have many family members who are nurses. This could have been them. The CDC and the Department of Health and Human Services have completely failed the American people with their poor response to this situation.

Reading through these posts and others around the internet, I have noticed a trend. I am not a Democrat, nor am I a Republican. Why are all of the Obama supporters taking such offense that people are concerned about Ebola? They are quick to attempt to discredit any concerns. They are quick to attempt to belittle anyone who raises a valid point. God forbid Obama takes some heat for this country's poor preparation and lack of action. Quit rooting for politicians/political parties like they're your favorite football team. Try to think critically and formulate your own opinions and quit repeating the same talking points you heard on MSNBC or Fox News.

 

[Sumac13]

Can we leave trite political comments out of this. Fuck. Can we at least not be opportunistic about something for once so to spare the rest of us banal commentary.

 

[Kyrieville]

Can we leave trite political comments out of this. Fuck. Can we at least not be opportunistic about something for once so to spare the rest of us banal commentary.

I'm not being political; quite the opposite. I'm just pointing out the trend.

 

[CleveRocks]

Well, letting Duncan into the country was a goof up. Sending him home after the first trip to the emergency was a fumble. But getting on a plane with a fever while being monitored for Ebola is just wreckless.

I get the CDC is trying to keep a lid on fear mongering. But clearly they are late taking this seriously. With Duncan we had exposure in Dallas, but now we have exposure in Cleveland and anywhere else people were traveling to on that plane, If it was a direct flight.

On top of that we have some 1500 US soldiers in the zone. Why hasn't anyone asked what they are doing, or if any of them have contracted the disease? They don't know how the disease was passed on, they dont know really how many people are infected, and they dont really know how many people are getting out of the hot zone heading for destinations where they think they will be safer.

I am not sure you can put this genie back in the bottle. I was thinking about selling my condo in Vermont, but at this point I think I am going to hang on to it for a while....

 

[KB]

I don't think this a case of hindsight bias at all. If you'd have polled the people on this forum before her positive reading, I'd bet 90% of them would have said that health care workers who came in contact with her should not fly for 21 days afterwards, especially given that one nurse already had come down with ebola. And apparently, her flying violated some pre-existing guidelines, which also is not consistent with the idea that this is just "hindsight":



Now, what's unknown -- at least to me -- is whether this was communicated to her before her trip or not. That's something that may never be cleared up because they may not want to look like they're "blaming" her if she was told about those guidelines but flew anyway.

Regardless of any fault she might bear, I'd agree with that the CDC has screwed this up. I think they made a deliberate decision to "play it down" so that people didn't "panic", and the result is that people weren't scared enough.

Nigeria beat their outbreak, and if you read up on what they did, part of it was mandatory twice a day home visits by health care workers on anyone who was exposed. That way, the fever is detected very early before anyone else might be affected. That's clearly not what happened in Dallas, nor does there seem to be any claim that the CDC recommended that be done. Because if it had, the very nature of that requirement would have meant that she would have had to stay home in Texas.

Well if she was violating pre-existing guidelines they probably should have told her during her multiple calls to the CDC prior to getting on the flight..She was told her fever needed to be over 100 degrees to considered high risk

So yes, it's hindsight and conjecture. That doesn't change just because the CDC is trying to cover their ass by stating there were pre-existing conditions after Vinson had called them multiple times prior to leaving to board her flight..

This is why she was considered "low risk" There were 75 people that helped treat Duncan for the 2 weeks he was there out of those 75 people 1 contracted the disease before Vinson (98.6% didn't contract it after 2 weeks)

After Vinson makes drops it to 73 t that changes to 97%. So 97% of the people that helped treat the man in Texas are fine

If you take that 75 as base for the other 2 cases that were flown in before this that means 225 people treated the 3 ebola patients prior to the Texas Nurses contracting it

That is 223 out of 225 people that are fine (going off a base of 75 per patient)...that leaves 99.1% of the healthcare workers in our system that didn't contract the disease.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-nurse-called-cdc-several-times/

ByJONATHAN LAPOOK, SCOTT PELLEYCBS NEWSOctober 15, 2014, 7:59 PM
2nd nurse with Ebola called CDC before boarding flight

In the case of Amber Vinson, the Dallas nurse who flew commercially as she was becoming ill with Ebola, one health official said "somebody dropped the ball."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that Vinson called the agency several times before flying, saying that she had a fever with a temperature of 99.5 degrees. But because her fever wasn't 100.4 degrees or higher, she didn't officially fall into the group of "high risk" and was allowed to fly.

Officials in the U.S. have been trying to calm fears over the Ebola crisis, but time and again events have overtaken their assurances.

In August, before the first U.S. infection, CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden said: "We're confident that we have the facilities here to isolate patients, not only at the highly advanced ones like the one at Emory, but really at virtually every major hospital in the U.S."

On Sept. 30, Thomas Duncan tested positive in Dallas.

"This case is serious," Texas Gov. Rick Perry said in reaction. "Rest assured that our system is working as it should."

And there was reassurance from the White House.

"Every hospital in this county has the capability to isolate a patient, take the measures, put them in place to ensure that any suspected case is immediately isolated and the follow-up steps that have been mentioned are immediately taken," Lisa Monaco, a homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to President Obama, said Oct. 3.

But health care workers weren't so sure.

"We want to make sure that we have the correct equipment - the protective equipment - to protect both our patients and ourselves," Katy Roemer, who has worked as a nurse in California for 20 years, told CBS News correspondent John Blackstone last week.

Blackstone asked her whether hazmat suits were available to her.

"Not that I know of," Roemer said.

Duncan died Oct. 8. Four days later, nurse Nina Pham got sick. Federal officials were now discovering what health workers had warned about.

"The proof of the pudding, the training, was not adequate," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health. "It was not adequate. The training was not adequate. We've got to make sure the training is adequate."

The director of the CDC, who in August said he was "confident," said this Tuesday:

"We could've sent a more robust hospital infection control team and been more hands-on with the hospital from day one," Frieden said. "... I wish we had put a team like this on the ground the day the patient - the first patient - was diagnosed. That might have prevented this infection."

The CDC is reacting to the mistakes made in Dallas by turning up the heat on every hospital in the country, saying to be prepared.

© 2014 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

I think your point about Nigeria is being overstated


http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_worl...f_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.html

What Can We Learn From How Nigeria Contained Ebola? Not That Much.

By Joshua Keating

Nigeria and Senegal could be declared Ebola-free by the World Health Organization in a few days, after clearing the requisite 42-day period with no new cases. In all, 20 people were infected in Nigeria with eight fatalities. Only one person in Senegal became infected, but that victim has recovered.

The news is cause for a cautious sigh of relief, if not total celebration. Though the global outbreak is still far from contained, the prospect of it getting loose in Lagos—Africa’s largest city and a major international commercial center—was one of the more terrifying scenarios we’ve had to contemplate over the last few weeks.

The success these countries had in containing the outbreak is going to prompt some discussion of what lessons can be learned for other places fighting Ebola. The Financial Times attributes Nigeria’s achievement to a “rare national effort that saw the Lagos state government, federal institutions, the private sector, and global non-governmental organizations all pulling in the same direction to defeat the disease.” That national effort included a presidential decree that gave officials access to phone records and a strict system to monitor potential cases, one that involved tracking down more than 800 people who may have had contact with the infected.

But arguably, Nigeria didn’t actually do a very impressive job. A single Liberian man, who traveled to Nigeria in July, infected 11 hospital staff in the time between his admission to a hospital and when his test results were received. There might have been more infections if not for a doctors’ strike that reduced the number of people who came in contact with him. One doctor told the New York Times, “At the time, nobody was prepared for it.”

The advantage Nigeria had was that its outbreak began with this one man, who was immediately taken from the airport to a clinic, at a time when Ebola was already a crisis. By contrast, international agencies and authorities in the three countries at the epicenter of the outbreak—Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—didn’t wake up to the severity of the disease until dozens were already infected.


Rather than demonstrating the effectiveness of any particular method of Ebola control, the case of Nigeria, and the less severe case of Senegal, confirm what we’ve known about the disease from the beginning. Despite its high mortality rate, Ebola is relatively difficult to transmit from person to person, and under normal circumstances, it’s relatively easy to contain with common-sense public health measures: isolating those infected, limiting the exposure of health care workers, and tracking those who may have come in contact with them. For a variety of reasons, this was not done in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea until it was too late.

Despite early lapses, Nigeria—a country that’s not known for reliable public institutions or health care infrastructure—was able to get the outbreak under control. And despite the early lapses in Dallas, the U.S. should be able to do the same.

Of course, that's not much comfort if you live in one of the countries where it’s already out of control.