Fix the Indians

[Real Deal]

Look at the Twins for a prime example for how one group can look shitty one year, then good the next...you can't predict this shit, but if it makes you feel better about this year to trash next year as well based on jack diddly shit, go for it.

I'm done in here again for a while...Indians section has become as unreadable as the team is unwatchable right now.

No don't go away.

I have an right to bitch and be upset over my favorite sport and favorite team absolutely dropping the ball from top to bottom.

It's an train wreck, and I'm sick of people downplaying this travesty of a baseball season where we expected so much more. Players have given up and Kipnis basically said it.

 

[BimboColesHair]

No don't go away.

I have an right to bitch and be upset over my favorite sport and favorite team absolutely dropping the ball from top to bottom.

It's an train wreck, and I'm sick of people downplaying this travesty of a baseball season where we expected so much more. Players have given up and Kipnis basically said it.

Here's why I laugh at your "2016 is going to be a bad, bad year, we won't matter til 2019" bullshit.

Luck. Luck plays a pretty key role in baseball, more so than other sport IMO...think about it. You can do everything right as a hitter, guess the pitch and location correctly, square it up, drive it, but it goes right at someone. As a pitcher, you can do everything right. Set up your out pitch, get the batter off-balance, and his little bloop shit drops or his soft ass grounder finds a hole. Luck.

The Indians are currently 21st in BABIP, batting average of balls in play. Now, you can say that's because they don't hit the ball hard with consistency or they pop shit up or flyout softy too much. Wrong. While they are 21st in BABIP, they are 10th in the league in line drive %, 15th in hard hit ball %...while they hit the ball hard, at an above average rate combining the 2, they are one of the unluckiest teams in baseball when putting the ball in play. We lead the league in BB%, are the 4th best team in terms of K%, and are the 3rd best UBR (ultimate base running) team in baseball. We put runners on, hit the ball hard, don't K, and run the bases very well, but are unlucky when putting the ball in play. Luck.

Compare our BABIP this year (.289), to 2013 (.300) and 2014 (.296) when we were 6th and 11th in runs scored for the entire league. Our BB% this year is 9.2%. In 2013 it was 9.1%, in 2014 it was 8.1%. Our K% this year is 18.4%. In 2013 it was 20.8%, in 2014 19.1%. Our line drive% this year is 21.6%. In 2013 it was 21.1%, in 2014 it was 22.1%. Our hard hit ball% this year is 28.9%. In 2013 it was 30.4%, in 2014 it was 28%. Our UBR this year is 5.8. In 2013 it was -1.0, in 2014 it was 5.2.

Look at that. Pretty much the same line drive %, the same hard hit ball%, more walks, less strikeouts, better baserunning, yet we are currently 22nd in the league in runs scored, while in 2013 we were 6th and in 2014 we were 11th...BABIP is the difference...luck.

Same goes for our pitching, if you want me to get into that...think about how good our pitching is, how many K's they rack up (highest K% in the league), yet all the while they have a .309 BABIP against them...that's the 5th highest in the league. There's a reason our pitching staff is 21st in ERA (3.97), yet 8th in FIP (3.54), 2nd in xFIP (3.35), and 2nd in SIERA (3.24).

Luck plays a large part in baseball...and it's killing the Indians this year.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Now I'm done in here.

 

[EdMonix11]

Honestly? If I was a super ballsy GM, I would make everyone available at the deadline. I mean everybody on the big league roster over the age of 25 and see if someone knocks my socks off.... I don't necessarily want to SELL but, again, knock my socks off. It's a buyers market and the Indians could make an absolute killing should they decide to re-tool.... I'm taking high-end, close to the big league talent with a slant towards offensive players. It could be a major opportunity to really change the composition and complexion of this team.... Hey, it's not my ass on the line here.

Now hear me out, our best medium-term asset bats (Kipnis, Brantley, Santana) do carry some risk. Kipnis might be an under-powered corner OF.....like tomorrow, Brantley's awful defensive metrics and the presence of our top prospects might make him a DH sometime soon and Santana is self-explanitory. I don't want to trade these guys but if we're trading our top pitching for bats, why not just go all in on a quick turnaround rebuild? Plus, we might need to replace a starting pitching slot too. I view Gomes as a long-term asset just because of the scarcity of catchers who can handle the bat.

Sportsnet.ca (it's like Fox Sports in Canadia) reported tonight that the Indians-Blue Jays trade made it to the "finish line" for Carrasco before the Indians walked. I take that to mean they agreed on the parameters of the deal but couldn't reach common ground on how much the Indians would cover of Bourn's remaining salary-- Alex Anthopoulos can only take on $4-8M. They could easily revisit those talks closer to the deadline-- Norris (LHP) and Pompey (CF) is a really good start-- Baseball America's 18th and 29th prospect.

Now we've heard the Dodgers have checked in on Kluber. It would pain me to trade him but if the Dodgers panic at the deadline and put Corey Seager (#1 prospect in the minors) and a mid-level pitching prospect in the deal, I'd do it in a heartbeat. If the Dodgers balk at Seager, I'd go to the Rangers, who are looking for high-end controllable arms too, and ask about Gallo, Red Sox about Betts, Cubs about Bryant/Schwarber and so fourth. I don't want to trade our top pitchers but if you want high-end power hitters, that's unfortunately the price, and I want power hitters....plus we'd still have Bauer, Salazar and Anderson in the rotation so it's not like the cupboard is totally bare.

I'm on vacation so maybe the sun fried my brain but if Carrasco can land us two top-30 prospects, I shudder to think what a contender would pay for Kluber, Brantley and Kipnis. I know the Indians probably won't trade anyone other than the short term assets and maybe Carrasco, and I'd be okay with that, but it might be a huge boon to the organization to get weird and go Billy Beane all over the place..... if the prices are right. I really think the world of our next wave of prospects and adding a few more names and talents to that group could really make for something special......

 

[Scrote Squad]

Just a quick stat for you all:

Trout & Pujols - 60 HR

Moss, Santana, Brantley, Kipnis, Murphy, Perez, Aviles, Chisenhall, Gomes - 60 HR

 

[Nom]

It's easy to get caught up in this season cuz it is so damn frustrating - but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The Indians went 177-147 over the last 2 years before going 45-52 so far this year. As bad as this year is, there's a 324 game sample size of this being a pretty good team before these last 97 games. And it's more or less the same team as last year - but replacing Chiz, Asdrubal/JRam, and adding Moss. They didn't lose anything.

Which is the weird thing - the roster has improved each year, even as their record has dropped.

So I think they need to make some moves - but it might just be adding 2 decent vets who can hit a bit and control the locker room. That's more or less what KC did, right?

 

[CBBI]

First and foremost, they need to draft significantly better. I'm encouraged with Lindor and I think Zimmer could be good, but they need to get a lot better overall. I understand MLB drafting is a pretty big crapshoot, so maybe they need to be luckier or whatever the case, but drafting better obviously has multiple benefits.

The Indians really only have two ways to acquire elite talent, draft it themselves - which they haven't done a very good job of in a while - or acquire it via trade; which typically comes after developing a talent and trading it away, which has to continue to be the model moving forward for the Indians given their financial limitations.

My biggest contribution if I was Indians owner would be to dramatically increase the scouting budget, both domestically and internationally, and also dramatically increase the player development budget. I would consistently pour money into the farm system so the Tribe would A. always have cost controlled players in the pipeline ready to go when talent moves on and B. always have assets to go out and acquire players via trade when a group of young players develops at the same time and you have a chance to compete.

This current model of "spend 85M and if every break goes our way we'll win 90 and if no break goes our way, we'll win 75, but we're technically in the mix until the end of the season" is getting old.

It's like the Indians front office/ownership can't decide what they really want to do. They don't seem interested in pulling an Astros/Twins and having an extended run of being bad, but they don't have the resources to spend the kind of money it takes to be consistently good either. They seem content to live in the 75-85 (90 if it all goes perfect) win zone every year which is as boring as it gets.

 

[Nom]

First and foremost, they need to draft significantly better. I'm encouraged with Lindor and I think Bradley could be good, but they need to get a lot better overall. I understand MLB drafting is a pretty big crapshoot, so maybe they need to be luckier or whatever the case, but drafting better obviously has multiple benefits.

The Indians really only have two ways to acquire elite talent, draft it themselves - which they haven't done a very good job of in a while - or acquire it via trade; which typically comes after developing a talent and trading it away, which has to continue to be the model moving forward for the Indians given their financial limitations.

My biggest contribution if I was Indians owner would be to dramatically increase the scouting budget, both domestically and internationally, and also dramatically increase the player development budget. I would consistently pour money into the farm system so the Tribe would A. always have cost controlled players in the pipeline ready to go when talent moves on and B. always have assets to go out and acquire players via trade when a group of young players develops at the same time and you have a chance to compete.

This current model of "spend 85M and if every break goes our way we'll win 90 and if no break goes our way, we'll win 75, but we're technically in the mix until the end of the season" is getting old.

It's like the Indians front office/ownership can't decide what they really want to do. They don't seem interested in pulling an Astros/Twins and having an extended run of being bad, but they don't have the resources to spend the kind of money it takes to be consistently good either. They seem content to live in the 75-85 (90 if it all goes perfect) win zone every year which is as boring as it gets.

I sometimes wonder if the Tribe should've just bottomed out for a few years rather than do these quick rebuilds. Traded everyone away in '01 and won 90 games by '05. Traded everyone away in '09 and won 90 games by '13.

A lot of the small market teams that have been having success lately (Pit, KC) had prolonged periods of being awful and selecting at the top of the draft. I realize MLB isn't exactly like other sports where you can tank and get top talents - but there's certainly a difference in us grabbing guys like Lindor (7) and Frazier (5) than when you are picking late in the first.

To your point - we haven't had a ton of HUGE IMPACT type players. And these quick rebuilds mean even in the draft we're not in great position to get them.

 

[Pyro]

I saw some great tweets yesterday about the "small market" excuse that the Dolans give is bullshit. Going to find them and post...

 

[AZ_]

I sometimes wonder if the Tribe should've just bottomed out for a few years rather than do these quick rebuilds. Traded everyone away in '01 and won 90 games by '05. Traded everyone away in '09 and won 90 games by '13.

A lot of the small market teams that have been having success lately (Pit, KC) had prolonged periods of being awful and selecting at the top of the draft. I realize MLB isn't exactly like other sports where you can tank and get top talents - but there's certainly a difference in us grabbing guys like Lindor (7) and Frazier (5) than when you are picking late in the first.

To your point - we haven't had a ton of HUGE IMPACT type players. And these quick rebuilds mean even in the draft we're not in great position to get them.

The thought that they've never been bad enough to be truly great has a ton of merit, IMO.

They've just never been bad enough to consistently draft high, and when they have, they missed.

 

[FiveThous]

So are you guys saying we're on the "Treadmill of Mediocrity"?

EDIT: In full disclosure, I ask this with no knowledge of how the MLB draft works.
I'd have to imagine you can get good players in the middle of the first few rounds.
From the posts here we've unfortunately just missed more than we hit?

 

[AZ_]

So are you guys saying we're on the "Treadmill of Mediocrity"?

EDIT: In full disclosure, I ask this with no knowledge of how the MLB draft works.
I'd have to imagine you can get good players in the middle of the first few rounds.
From the posts here we've unfortunately just missed more than we hit?

Hasn't been THAT bad.

But some teams have hit home runs, the Indians have warning track power.

 

[Nom]

Hasn't been THAT bad.

But some teams have hit home runs, the Indians have warning track power.

Do you have much faith in this current crop coming up? Lindor is obviously here - but Zimmer, Frazier, Aiken - seems much better than the days of dreaming Nick Weglarz to be our savior are gone. Lots of drafted guys helping the MLB team right now. Feels like they turned the corner a bit.

Unfortunately, Zimmer is still a year away and those other guys are probably even further. The Naquins, Ramseys, etc don't seem to be major impact type guys.

 

[AZ_]

Do you have much faith in this current crop coming up? Lindor is obviously here - but Zimmer, Frazier, Aiken - seems much better than the days of dreaming Nick Weglarz to be our savior are gone. Lots of drafted guys helping the MLB team right now. Feels like they turned the corner a bit.

Unfortunately, Zimmer is still a year away and those other guys are probably even further. The Naquins, Ramseys, etc don't seem to be major impact type guys.

I don't have a ton of faith in Frazier, personally.

Zimmer and Aiken are potential Top 25 prospects, Aiken has the potential to be a Top 5 guy.

They REALLY don't have much at Mahoning Valley or Arizona right now, and that is definitely concerning.

I think it could get better, but I applaud them taking risks on ceiling guys like Aiken/McKenzie/Hillman instead of the Tyler Naquin/Lonnie Chisenhall's of the world.

 

[Nom]

I don't have a ton of faith in Frazier, personally.

Zimmer and Aiken are potential Top 25 prospects, Aiken has the potential to be a Top 5 guy.

They REALLY don't have much at Mahoning Valley or Arizona right now, and that is definitely concerning.

I think it could get better, but I applaud them taking risks on ceiling guys like Aiken/McKenzie/Hillman instead of the Tyler Naquin/Lonnie Chisenhall's of the world.

Yeah Frazier is so far away and such a question that I wonder if he isn't more useful in a trade.

Erik Gonzalez is blocked in the system and seemed to have some hype before struggling in AAA.

Just trying to think of guys in the system that maybe have some value and wouldn't kill the Tribe to part with. Think a package starting with those two get much in return?