Free Agency 2016-2017 Thread

[MirORich]

Thinking about Tristans deal, the overall set of FA deals signed in this offseason and the new cap numbers for the next two years, I decided to have a little fun with the FA2016 Crop and make a comprehensive prediction list of how much next years FA's will get.

Some Key numbers to chew on:

70 Million: This seasons cap number
89 Million: Next seasons cap number

84 Million: This seasons luxury tax line
108 Million: Next seasons luxury tax line

6.4 Billion - Next seasons total projected BRI
3.0 Billion - The players 51% share after befnefits deuction
1.6 Billion - Amount committed to players who are under contract for next year and beyond(about 224 players).

So that makes the magic and most important number to consider 1.4 billion dollars that has to be spent via FA and new draftees in money next offseason. That not 1.4 Billion for the life of the deals that get signed next year. Its 1.4 Billion for next season alone.

Thing is, its arguable if next years FA class is even as good as this past years. A lot of the top names will be 32 or older by next summer.

So be sure of this, if you were suprised by some of the deals that got signed this year(TT, Kanter, Tobias Harris, Reggie Jackson Brandon Knight, Khris Middeton, etc), that you are going to have even more sticker schock at next years deals.

Next post I'll make my way early and "I have way too much time on my hands" predictions.


edit: I didn't include the following 2012 rookie extension deals that were signed prior to this post:

Anthony Davis: 5 years, 145 million
Dame Lillard: 5 years, 120 million
Jonas Valanciunas: 4 years, 64 million
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 4 years, 52 million
John Henson: 4 years, 44 million

 

[MirORich]

2016 Free Agents whose new deals will average over 20 million(all the way up to the max which will vary by service time, previous time, and whether they're being signed via Bird Rights or via Cap Space:

Durant(Max)
Andre Drummond(Max)
Al Horford(Max)
Mike Conley(Max)
DeMar DeRozan
Brad Beal
Al Jefferson
Whiteside
Mozgov
Nic Batum

 

[MirORich]

2016 Free Agents between 15-20 million:

Harrison Barnes
Roy Hibbert
Jeff Green
Jordan Clarkson
Terrence Jones
Dwayne Wade
Ryan Anderson
Ian Mahainmi(with Hibbert gone, he will have a bust out year and get overvalued as a rare athletic center who can rebound and block shots)

 

[MirORich]

2016 FA between 10-15 Million:
Dion Waiters
Jordan Hill
Rajon Rondo
Luol Deng
Joakim Noah
David Lee
Eric Gordon
Terrence Ross(3 year, 33 million rookie extension 11/2/15)
Myers Leonard
Donatas Motiejunas
Festus Ezuli
Trevor Booker
Pau Gasol
Brandon Bass
OJ Mayo
Derrick Williams
Aaron Afflalo
Bismack Biyombo

 

[MirORich]

2016 FA between 6-10 Million:

Jeremy Lamb(3 year, 21 million rookie extension 11/1/15)
Mo Harkless
Tyler Zeller
Andrew Nicholson
Jared Sullinger
Evan Fournier
Brandon Jennings
JJ Hickson
Greveis Vasquez
Gerald Henderson
Isaiah Canaan
Norris Cole
Courtney Lee
Chase Budinger
Mario Chalmers
Evan Turner
Jerryd Bayless
James Johnson

 

[MirORich]

As crazy as these numbers seems, I think if anything, I have more guys wrong on the low side of low side of things, than the high side(especially with some of the younger players).

Keep in mind that this year, with the 70 million cap, guys who were young end of the bench types like Kyle O'Quinn and Aaron Baynes got multi year deals for 5 Million per year.

Looking forward to lots of debate and arguments as the season progresses and then to be able to check back and compare once FA is over next year.

 

[Rich]

Obviously we disagree on how much middling players are going to get paid because of the cap jump. I think a lot of these dudes are being overvalued here, unless you are factoring in major, major bumps in contributions from some of them.

For instance, unless Nic Batum reverses his game, he won't get 20 million based on what we saw out of him last year. He was so, so, so bad on the offensive end. And you can't be THAT poor on the offensive end at that position and get 20 million+. That's just one example.

There is a name though that I actually think is being undervalued and that's Fournier. He's better (and younger) than a few guys on the list above.

 

[K1rieIrving>AllOtherPG's]

Kyrie Durant Lebron Love Mozgod.

8 straight championships.

lets get the rumor going, just send ESPN an anonymous email saying that you're a GM and you have inside information about K/D Possibility going to Cleveland to join his buddy Lebron, I guarantee you they wont stop talking about it haha

 

[MirORich]

Obviously we disagree on how much middling players are going to get paid because of the cap jump. I think a lot of these dudes are being overvalued here, unless you are factoring in major, major bumps in contributions from some of them.

For instance, unless Nic Batum reverses his game, he won't get 20 million based on what we saw out of him last year. He was so, so, so bad on the offensive end. And you can't be THAT poor on the offensive end at that position and get 20 million+. That's just one example.

There is a name though that I actually think is being undervalued and that's Fournier. He's better (and younger) than a few guys on the list above.

I like Fournier I just question how much opportunity to shine he will get with Oladipo, Herjona, and Harris ahead of him.

But as you pointed out, the key thing he has going for him is he's young and has talent. Show out enough this year and someone could absolutely zero in on him for higher than 10 million.

On the topic of Orlando and contract values, the Nik Vucevic deal might be the best non rookie deal value in the NBA over the next 3 years.

 

[Paul]

As crazy as these numbers seems, I think if anything, I have more guys wrong on the low side of low side of things, than the high side(especially with some of the younger players).

Keep in mind that this year, with the 70 million cap, guys who were young end of the bench types like Kyle O'Quinn and Aaron Baynes got multi year deals for 5 Million per year.

Looking forward to lots of debate and arguments as the season progresses and then to be able to check back and compare once FA is over next year.

What are you projecting for Delly's contract?

 

[MirORich]

What are you projecting for Delly's contract?

If he were an UFA it would be a slightly easier call.

But just look at the deals last year of Jae Crowder, Aaron Baynes, Kyle Singler, Kyle O'Quinn, Cj Watson, and Jonas Jerebko.

Those guys are all career bench players, guys who are in the 8-10 spots of rotations for most of their careers. They are all guys considered to be hustle guys and good teammates, and all have limited skillsets. The each got contracts with an annual value between 5-7 million per year.

If Delly improves just incrementally from last year, its hard to imagine that a few teams besides the Cavaliers wouldn't value him at least as much as those guys were.

What that means for his contract though is so hard to say since he's a RFA. On one hand a team may not want to waste their time making him an offer knowing that we can match. On the other, because of how high our payroll is and the fact that we'll be looking to keep Moz, some team might make an early offer as soon as FA opens for somewhere in the 5-8 million per year range, daring the Cavs to match and continue to pay crazy luxury tax.

 

[Paul]

If he were an UFA it would be a slightly easier call.

But just look at the deals last year of Jae Crowder, Aaron Baynes, Kyle Singler, Kyle O'Quinn, Cj Watson, and Jonas Jerebko.

Those guys are all career bench players, guys who are in the 8-10 spots of rotations for most of their careers. They are all guys considered to be hustle guys and good teammates, and all have limited skillsets. The each got contracts with an annual value between 5-7 million per year.

If Delly improves just incrementally from last year, its hard to imagine that a few teams besides the Cavaliers wouldn't value him at least as much as those guys were.

What that means for his contract though is so hard to say since he's a RFA. On one hand a team may not want to waste their time making him an offer knowing that we can match. On the other, because of how high our payroll is and the fact that we'll be looking to keep Moz, some team might make an early offer as soon as FA opens for somewhere in the 5-8 million per year range, daring the Cavs to match and continue to pay crazy luxury tax.

Good analysis there.

I agree it's going to be really interesting. I was thinking something in like a 3-8 million range so pretty similar. I think we will be fortunate to hold onto him.

 

[Rich]

If he were an UFA it would be a slightly easier call.

But just look at the deals last year of Jae Crowder, Aaron Baynes, Kyle Singler, Kyle O'Quinn, Cj Watson, and Jonas Jerebko.

Those guys are all career bench players, guys who are in the 8-10 spots of rotations for most of their careers. They are all guys considered to be hustle guys and good teammates, and all have limited skillsets. The each got contracts with an annual value between 5-7 million per year.

If Delly improves just incrementally from last year, its hard to imagine that a few teams besides the Cavaliers wouldn't value him at least as much as those guys were.

What that means for his contract though is so hard to say since he's a RFA. On one hand a team may not want to waste their time making him an offer knowing that we can match. On the other, because of how high our payroll is and the fact that we'll be looking to keep Moz, some team might make an early offer as soon as FA opens for somewhere in the 5-8 million per year range, daring the Cavs to match and continue to pay crazy luxury tax.

It's hard to award hustle guys at that position. Because of what a point guard is required to do, it's difficult to pay one 7 million dollars a year for hustling. Delly is a really pesky defender and a guy who can hit some wide open threes. But he can't run an offense effectively and is too easily pressured and forced to give up the ball. Maybe a team that needs exactly what he brings will give him some money, but it's gonna require the exact right circumstances for someone to give him that much. Unless, of course, he shows improvement this year, specifically in handling the ball and getting other guys open looks.

 

[MirORich]

It's hard to award hustle guys at that position. Because of what a point guard is required to do, it's difficult to pay one 7 million dollars a year for hustling. Delly is a really pesky defender and a guy who can hit some wide open threes. But he can't run an offense effectively and is too easily pressured and forced to give up the ball. Maybe a team that needs exactly what he brings will give him some money, but it's gonna require the exact right circumstances for someone to give him that much. Unless, of course, he shows improvement this year, specifically in handling the ball and getting other guys open looks.

Don't disagree with anything you said.
But looking at the Baynes and O'quinn signings especially, if Delly was an UFA next year I have no doubt someone would offer him at least 5-6 million per year.

Beyond his tangible pluses and minuses, one thing that works strongly in his favor is that none of those guys I listed in the earlier post had Dellys "on tape resume" in a Finals run. I think with a lot of GMs and coaches, that gets an extra weight, knowing that a guy has experience in truly meaningful/stressful situations and can come in, play their role, and not sh*t the bed. This is all just for fun hypotheticals and speculation though to pass the time before the season starts.

 

[Danny Arison]

Baynes sucks man, wtf