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Does Draymond Green deserve a max deal?
January, 16, 2015
During Golden State’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 9, analyst Jeff Van Gundy made a bold prediction about Draymond Green on the broadcast: “I really think he's going to be a max player.”
Twitter did a double take over a valuation that few, if any, had offered publicly. Van Gundy had a solid case, though, even if it went against conventional wisdom: "How many guys defend, rebound, pass and make 3s? That combination, you just don't see."
While you just don’t see Green’s combination of skills, you also just don’t see guys averaging fewer than 12 points getting max restricted offers -- unless they’re 7 feet tall. If Van Gundy’s right, if this does indeed happen, it would have to mark a sea change in the business of basketball.
We’re talking about a second-round pick who’s shorter than 6-6 in socks, who doesn't jump high, create his own shot or dominate the ball. A rookie max deal for a scrappy “tweener” averaging the fourth-most points per game on his team? Basketball doesn’t work that way -- yet. This summer will be a good test of whether teams pay big for a guy who does all the “little things.”
Green might not boast gaudy traditional stats, but one stat in particular loudly agrees with Van Gundy's assertion. Real plus-minus, which measures a player by how his team does when he’s in the game, lists Green as the 10th-best player in the league. He’s first among wings, ahead of even LeBron James. Of course, Green isn't technically a wing this season; he’s starting at power forward. But that ambiguity of position reflects the value he brings. Against the Mavericks, he ably guarded Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis in the same game. It’s difficult to fit a player like this into a box.
Perhaps you assume his RPM is a fluke, some bizarre byproduct of an excellent Warriors run. That would make sense except Green was third among wings in real plus-minus last season, when he played much of the season among an anemic bench lineup. Green also produced a positive RPM as a rookie despite shooting a horrific 32.7 percent from the field.
“Draymond Green is the poster boy for the defensive superstar who is making contributions that are on par with offensive superstars that we easily recognize,” said Steve Ilardi, one of the architects of RPM.
Green’s ability to guard five positions has been praised, but the underpaid are often paid in compliments like “heart,” “grit” and “hustle.” The idea behind using a team success stat is to make Green’s production register in the way, “25 points per game” resonates. That kind of resonance might elevate an athlete’s status from “gritty” to “superstar.” When I asked if the Warriors should match a rookie max offer, Ilardi answered: “Yes.”
“His defense would probably be the same almost no matter what team he plays on, in part because he can defend so many positions," Jeremias Engelmann, the other half of the RPM team, said via email. "Further, I think he could play a very similar role as he's now playing for GSW for a number of other teams such as TOR, CHI, ATL, WAS, POR, OKC, LAC, (PHX), HOU, MEM, DAL, SAS. That's 12 teams for which I think his role wouldn't change much, and his value would thus not change much either.”
Unlike some other defensive specialists, Green plays enough offense to remain on the floor. His ability to capably hit open 3-pointers means he can play more minutes than Tony Allen or Andre Roberson. He also rebounds, passes, pushes the ball in transition and throws Kevin Love-style outlet passes. About the only thing Green can’t do on a basketball court is create his own shot. That’s minor in the grand scheme, but it's also the skill most associated with stardom. Tradition demands that we consider Green a “role player,” even if he’s excelling at all but one role.
Naturally, I asked Green what his take on the matter: “Do you know where you’re ranked in real plus-minus?”
Green has said before that his greatest defensive asset is his anticipation. He’s smart enough to see what an opponent wants to do in a given situation. It’s said that defense is all about “character,” and maybe it is. But defense also requires a good amount of foresight. It’s good to have heart, but don’t discount the value of psychic powers.
Draymond shredded my quiz tactics: “I mean, the way you making it sound, top 10?”
“You knew!” I said, half-accusingly.
“That's just the way you were making it sound,” Green insisted.
I’ve asked him before if he agreed that he’s a “top-four or -five power forward,” and he concurred. Green is the epitome of a team-first player, but unselfish play does not mean a dearth of confidence. He’s the guy who kept firing 3s through a rookie season where he shot 20.9 percent behind the arc. The man believes in himself and won’t get bashful over stats that speak well of his value.
On the stat: “I'm sure it's fair, obviously. I'm not going to go out on the court and say, ‘Oh, I need to get to No. 1, real plus-minus!’ Everything that happens out there will take care of itself. I'm not going to start worrying about it, but that's pretty cool.”
I asked if he thought new stats that reflected defense would catch on. Green assumes an inevitable shift: “I think it has to [catch on], because everything now is about winning. You can score 25 a night but if you're on a losing team nobody cares.”
I offered that new stats could help with his contract situation. He smiled. “Yeah. That’s pretty cool, too.”
For the Warriors, the issue of Green’s contract is bigger than just Green and bigger than just money. If you noticed a certain TMZ video, Green was at a football game in Seattle with Stephen Curry’s family, throwing grapes at Seahawks fans who’d gotten into a spat with Curry’s wife and mother.
That incident doesn’t much matter, but it was illustrative of Green’s friendship with Golden State’s franchise face. Curry certainly wants Green around past this season. The Warriors might not want to pay Green a max offer, but keeping Curry happy, and keeping Curry in the Bay after 2017, are important considerations.
Luckily for the Warriors, Steph’s friend happens to be a very productive NBA player, a “role player” with star production. It’s hard to quantify just how much he does for Golden State, but the closer we get, the more green Draymond seems due.
January, 16, 2015
During Golden State’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 9, analyst Jeff Van Gundy made a bold prediction about Draymond Green on the broadcast: “I really think he's going to be a max player.”
Twitter did a double take over a valuation that few, if any, had offered publicly. Van Gundy had a solid case, though, even if it went against conventional wisdom: "How many guys defend, rebound, pass and make 3s? That combination, you just don't see."
While you just don’t see Green’s combination of skills, you also just don’t see guys averaging fewer than 12 points getting max restricted offers -- unless they’re 7 feet tall. If Van Gundy’s right, if this does indeed happen, it would have to mark a sea change in the business of basketball.
We’re talking about a second-round pick who’s shorter than 6-6 in socks, who doesn't jump high, create his own shot or dominate the ball. A rookie max deal for a scrappy “tweener” averaging the fourth-most points per game on his team? Basketball doesn’t work that way -- yet. This summer will be a good test of whether teams pay big for a guy who does all the “little things.”
Green might not boast gaudy traditional stats, but one stat in particular loudly agrees with Van Gundy's assertion. Real plus-minus, which measures a player by how his team does when he’s in the game, lists Green as the 10th-best player in the league. He’s first among wings, ahead of even LeBron James. Of course, Green isn't technically a wing this season; he’s starting at power forward. But that ambiguity of position reflects the value he brings. Against the Mavericks, he ably guarded Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis in the same game. It’s difficult to fit a player like this into a box.
Perhaps you assume his RPM is a fluke, some bizarre byproduct of an excellent Warriors run. That would make sense except Green was third among wings in real plus-minus last season, when he played much of the season among an anemic bench lineup. Green also produced a positive RPM as a rookie despite shooting a horrific 32.7 percent from the field.
“Draymond Green is the poster boy for the defensive superstar who is making contributions that are on par with offensive superstars that we easily recognize,” said Steve Ilardi, one of the architects of RPM.
Green’s ability to guard five positions has been praised, but the underpaid are often paid in compliments like “heart,” “grit” and “hustle.” The idea behind using a team success stat is to make Green’s production register in the way, “25 points per game” resonates. That kind of resonance might elevate an athlete’s status from “gritty” to “superstar.” When I asked if the Warriors should match a rookie max offer, Ilardi answered: “Yes.”
“His defense would probably be the same almost no matter what team he plays on, in part because he can defend so many positions," Jeremias Engelmann, the other half of the RPM team, said via email. "Further, I think he could play a very similar role as he's now playing for GSW for a number of other teams such as TOR, CHI, ATL, WAS, POR, OKC, LAC, (PHX), HOU, MEM, DAL, SAS. That's 12 teams for which I think his role wouldn't change much, and his value would thus not change much either.”
Unlike some other defensive specialists, Green plays enough offense to remain on the floor. His ability to capably hit open 3-pointers means he can play more minutes than Tony Allen or Andre Roberson. He also rebounds, passes, pushes the ball in transition and throws Kevin Love-style outlet passes. About the only thing Green can’t do on a basketball court is create his own shot. That’s minor in the grand scheme, but it's also the skill most associated with stardom. Tradition demands that we consider Green a “role player,” even if he’s excelling at all but one role.
Naturally, I asked Green what his take on the matter: “Do you know where you’re ranked in real plus-minus?”
Green has said before that his greatest defensive asset is his anticipation. He’s smart enough to see what an opponent wants to do in a given situation. It’s said that defense is all about “character,” and maybe it is. But defense also requires a good amount of foresight. It’s good to have heart, but don’t discount the value of psychic powers.
Draymond shredded my quiz tactics: “I mean, the way you making it sound, top 10?”
“You knew!” I said, half-accusingly.
“That's just the way you were making it sound,” Green insisted.
I’ve asked him before if he agreed that he’s a “top-four or -five power forward,” and he concurred. Green is the epitome of a team-first player, but unselfish play does not mean a dearth of confidence. He’s the guy who kept firing 3s through a rookie season where he shot 20.9 percent behind the arc. The man believes in himself and won’t get bashful over stats that speak well of his value.
On the stat: “I'm sure it's fair, obviously. I'm not going to go out on the court and say, ‘Oh, I need to get to No. 1, real plus-minus!’ Everything that happens out there will take care of itself. I'm not going to start worrying about it, but that's pretty cool.”
I asked if he thought new stats that reflected defense would catch on. Green assumes an inevitable shift: “I think it has to [catch on], because everything now is about winning. You can score 25 a night but if you're on a losing team nobody cares.”
I offered that new stats could help with his contract situation. He smiled. “Yeah. That’s pretty cool, too.”
For the Warriors, the issue of Green’s contract is bigger than just Green and bigger than just money. If you noticed a certain TMZ video, Green was at a football game in Seattle with Stephen Curry’s family, throwing grapes at Seahawks fans who’d gotten into a spat with Curry’s wife and mother.
That incident doesn’t much matter, but it was illustrative of Green’s friendship with Golden State’s franchise face. Curry certainly wants Green around past this season. The Warriors might not want to pay Green a max offer, but keeping Curry happy, and keeping Curry in the Bay after 2017, are important considerations.
Luckily for the Warriors, Steph’s friend happens to be a very productive NBA player, a “role player” with star production. It’s hard to quantify just how much he does for Golden State, but the closer we get, the more green Draymond seems due.
TFIR
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The Curious Case Of Reggie Jackson - then Jimmy Butler - then Denver Nuggets
When the Cleveland Cavaliers decided to consummate the three-team deal that landed them J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert from New York, the news of the deal trickled out slowly with NBA new guru Adrian Wojnarowski tweeting out the details as they were trickling to him. As is common, everyone else sort of piggybacked off of Woj’s tweets.
The problem there is that Woj tweeted that the deal included Thunder guard Reggie Jackson, and virtually everyone else began reporting that Jackson was in the deal and headed to the Knicks.
Woj is rarely wrong on trades and trade details, so why wouldn’t everyone assume he was on the money, right? Well he wasn’t and that happens in real-time reporting.
The by-product of that is this new assumption that the Thunder are looking to move Jackson because of his pending free agency. The arrival of Dion Waiters hasn’t hurt that idea either, mainly because the Thunder are trying to work Waiters into their process and that’s meant less minutes for Jackson and more speculation that Jackson is the odd man out and going to be traded.
Jackson has heard the rumors and trying not to add fire to them.
“I mean, that’s what everybody’s saying,” Jackson said to Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. “I’m not here to speculate, though. So if that’s what they do I understand it’s a business. If not, I’m still out here giving it my all. I’m just here to enjoy the game to the best of my ability. That’s all I want to do is play basketball.”
Jackson tried to paint the picture that the trade talks aren’t affecting him, although his minutes and production has dropped since the trade, with more minutes swinging to guards Andre Roberson and Waiters. Jackson says he’s handling the trade talk well.
“Probably better than you are. Y’all are bringing it up,” Jackson said. “I can’t control it. I just go play whenever I’m put on the court. That’s about all I can do, all the control I have. Just go from there. I’m happy (Waiters) did well. I’m happy he made a big shot. I’m just happy we got a win.”
Jackson said he’s just trying to focus on improving his own game.
“I wish I could do better,” Jackson said, “but I’m just trying to make the most that I can out of the minutes that I’m getting.”
The popular narrative is the Thunder “can’t afford to pay Jackson” this summer if they want to remain under the luxury tax, and that might be true if Jackson receives a top range free agent offer.
Hornets guard Kemba Walker signed a four-year, $48 million extension in October, which likely set the bar on free agent point guards at roughly $12 million a year on the high side.
That’s a big number for the Thunder who have $68.707 million in hard salary cap commitments next season. They will also have to account for the arrival of 2014 draft pick Josh Huestis, who they have stashed in the D-League. Huestis will cost them just under $1 million. They have their own draft pick if it falls in the top 18, so there is a place holder for that to the tune of about $1 million and a couple of second rounders.
So for the sake of discussion let’s call the Thunder’s cap for next season $70.707 million. Early projections from the NBA peg the 2015 salary cap at roughly $66.3 million with a luxury tax line of just at $80 million, giving the Thunder roughly $9.3 million in space under the tax line.
They can free up more if they trade away guys like Jeremy Lamb ($3.03 million in 2015) or Perry Jones ($2.03 million in 2015) – neither decision has to be made until the trade deadline next year, but they have options to reduce cost.
So the idea that the Thunder can’t pay Jackson is a little misplaced, because they can. It becomes expensive if another team puts a $12 million offer on the table, which is surely what Jackson’s agent is going to seek in July, even if it’s a shorter term deal simply to get that first year as high as possible to force the Thunder’s hand.
With the salary cap looking to balloon in 2016, this isn’t nearly the problem it’s made to be, but that is the popular narrative.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle of that.
Some of that is the Thunder and their mindset, some of that is Jackson and his mindset.
The Thunder have a starting point guard. His name is Russell Westbrook and he is one of the best players at his position. As much as it seems to make sense to slide him over to the two guard spot, the Thunder do not see that as workable for them, meaning Jackson is the sixth man on his best day.
Here is the problem: Jackson doesn’t want to be the sixth man. He wants to start, as most players do. The idea of spending his career from the bench isn’t overly appealing and he has become a little pouty about it.
The Thunder saw an opportunity to grab Waiters for basically nothing in their part of the three-team deal with the Cavaliers, because they saw Waiters as more of a natural sixth man player and that’s has marginalized Jackson even more.
The problem with Jackson and the Thunder is not financial. That surely plays a small role, but it is really philosophical.
They have a clearly defined role they want Jackson to play and they would pay him well to play it.
He doesn’t want that role or the salary that the Thunder have ear marked for it. He wants a better role, and with that a better paycheck.
The narrative is the Thunder won’t pay him. That’s not really the case, the Thunder don’t need Jackson to start. They know full well he can, but that’s not a need they want to fill.
The arrival of Waiters gives the Thunder options. One of those options is to trade Jackson, which they very well may do.
But much like James Harden in 2012, this won’t be nearly as much about money as the role the player wants to play versus the role that the Thunder have for him.
Money is always a factor, but the Thunder can pay Jackson and still avoid the luxury tax if they really wanted to. The problem is paying a guy what could be $12 million a year to be the sixth man isn’t necessarily smart for a small market team. Paying a guy at the top end of his position to play from the bench isn’t smart either.
If Jackson goes, and he very well might, it’s going to be because he is not the player they need him to be. The money part just makes it easier to justify.
That’s not nearly as sexy a narrative as “they can’t pay him”; they can, they just may not want to with where things are in the relationship.
»In Related: Who Still Has Cap Salary Space? How About Cap Exceptions?
Jimmy Butler And The Bulls: Is he worth the max yet? In October the Chicago Bulls and Jimmy Butler met to hash out terms of a contract extension. Typical to how the Bulls handle things, they locked in on an $11 million per year price. That number worked up from about $9 million a year when the process started.
Butler considered the offer carefully as he really wanted to stay in Chicago. As the deadline ticked closer there was a sense that maybe Butler would cave a little and take the bird in the hand if the Bulls came up just a little. However, something stuck in his mind: was he being valued based on what he did last year or what he could be going forward?
At one point he asked the Bulls if they thought he’d shoot as badly as he did last year? It was more rhetorical, but it set the tone for how things went all the way to deadline, where he ultimately decided to “gamble on himself”.
Butler endured a nasty case of turf toe last year, and played through it all year, grinding out major minutes on a bad foot. He knew he needed to play in order to get a contract, so typical for Butler he just grinded it out. He had trouble getting proper lift on his shot. His body hurt a lot, so he didn’t by his own admission post great numbers.
He knew his could handle the grind better this season and believed he could post better numbers. His agents gave him the lay of the land too.
There are as many as 15 NBA teams that’s could have $15 million or more in cap space to play with and that’s including teams looking for a tent pole player like the Knicks and the Lakers.
So Butler declined the extension and rolled the dice.
So far it’s paying off in a huge way.
As of last night Butler is scoring 20.6 points per game on 46.4 percent field goal shooting (3rd best on the team). He is kicking in 34.2 percent from the three-point line and leads the team in steals. Butler is posting the teams second best PER at 21.3, just a nose behind Pau Gasol who is posting a solid 22.6 PER.
It is likely that Butler, who was drafted with the 30th pick in the 2011 Draft, will be added to the 2015 NBA All-Star team, likely as a reserve.
The gamble seems to be paying off.
There have been reports that the Bulls want to take a proactive approach to Butler this summer and deliver a full max offer to him on July 1 before any other teams can get in front of him.
Here is the problem for Chicago: Butler is going to set the terms.
He wants to remain in Chicago and a max salary is going to be required, but what is also going to be required is options.
Butler is going to want the chance to re-set his contract under the new ballooning salary cap. He is also going to want a trade kicker, and he’ll want his contract structured in a way that makes him really hard or highly unfavorable to trade.
The Bulls and Butler will likely make a deal this summer. Both sides want that. What has changed is Butler is now in the driver’s seat on what that deal looks like, mainly because he knew he’d have a better year this year than he did last year.
The funny thing about all of this is had the Bulls moved their offer to $12.5 million a year, Butler might have signed it. Now it’s going to cost a lot more money going forward.
»In Related: Who Are The Top NBA Draft Prospects For The 2015 NBA Draft?
The Sell Off In Denver: When the Nuggets decided to cash out center Timofey Mozgov to the Cleveland Cavaliers in return for two highly protected draft picks, Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly said he doubted his team would be selling off anything else.
That has not stopped teams from calling, sensing there was blood in the water and the Nuggets may be open for business.
The two biggest names being inquired about are Wilson Chandler ($6.75 million) and Arron Afflalo ($7.5 million).
Chandler’s deal is only partially guaranteed for $2 million next year so he could be an interesting rental. Chandler is posting 14.2 points per game on 41.7 percent field goal shooting. Meanwhile Afflalo is kicking in 15.5 points per game on 44.7 percent field goal shooting.
Neither player is playing overly efficient basketball and both seem like they will lose time to a returning Danilo Gallinari, who could see action in the coming weeks after tearing his meniscus recently.
The Nuggets have been listening to offers according to league sources, however they don’t seem overly engaged at this point, but that could change once they see what Gallinari looks like after almost a year and nine months away from basketball.
The Nuggets have been as Jekyll and Hyde as anyone in basketball, stringing together chunks of wins and losses all season. The Nuggets are currently riding a hot streak of four straight wins, but still find themselves three and half games out of the eighth seed in the West and three games below .500.
The 2015 NBA trade deadline is February 19 at 3:00pm EST, so the Nuggets have roughly 37 days to figure out if they are going to compete or if its time to start selling off pieces.
Other teams sense there may be blood in the water, but the Nuggets don’t believe they are dead just yet.
When the Cleveland Cavaliers decided to consummate the three-team deal that landed them J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert from New York, the news of the deal trickled out slowly with NBA new guru Adrian Wojnarowski tweeting out the details as they were trickling to him. As is common, everyone else sort of piggybacked off of Woj’s tweets.
The problem there is that Woj tweeted that the deal included Thunder guard Reggie Jackson, and virtually everyone else began reporting that Jackson was in the deal and headed to the Knicks.
Woj is rarely wrong on trades and trade details, so why wouldn’t everyone assume he was on the money, right? Well he wasn’t and that happens in real-time reporting.
The by-product of that is this new assumption that the Thunder are looking to move Jackson because of his pending free agency. The arrival of Dion Waiters hasn’t hurt that idea either, mainly because the Thunder are trying to work Waiters into their process and that’s meant less minutes for Jackson and more speculation that Jackson is the odd man out and going to be traded.
Jackson has heard the rumors and trying not to add fire to them.
“I mean, that’s what everybody’s saying,” Jackson said to Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. “I’m not here to speculate, though. So if that’s what they do I understand it’s a business. If not, I’m still out here giving it my all. I’m just here to enjoy the game to the best of my ability. That’s all I want to do is play basketball.”
Jackson tried to paint the picture that the trade talks aren’t affecting him, although his minutes and production has dropped since the trade, with more minutes swinging to guards Andre Roberson and Waiters. Jackson says he’s handling the trade talk well.
“Probably better than you are. Y’all are bringing it up,” Jackson said. “I can’t control it. I just go play whenever I’m put on the court. That’s about all I can do, all the control I have. Just go from there. I’m happy (Waiters) did well. I’m happy he made a big shot. I’m just happy we got a win.”
Jackson said he’s just trying to focus on improving his own game.
“I wish I could do better,” Jackson said, “but I’m just trying to make the most that I can out of the minutes that I’m getting.”
The popular narrative is the Thunder “can’t afford to pay Jackson” this summer if they want to remain under the luxury tax, and that might be true if Jackson receives a top range free agent offer.
Hornets guard Kemba Walker signed a four-year, $48 million extension in October, which likely set the bar on free agent point guards at roughly $12 million a year on the high side.
That’s a big number for the Thunder who have $68.707 million in hard salary cap commitments next season. They will also have to account for the arrival of 2014 draft pick Josh Huestis, who they have stashed in the D-League. Huestis will cost them just under $1 million. They have their own draft pick if it falls in the top 18, so there is a place holder for that to the tune of about $1 million and a couple of second rounders.
So for the sake of discussion let’s call the Thunder’s cap for next season $70.707 million. Early projections from the NBA peg the 2015 salary cap at roughly $66.3 million with a luxury tax line of just at $80 million, giving the Thunder roughly $9.3 million in space under the tax line.
They can free up more if they trade away guys like Jeremy Lamb ($3.03 million in 2015) or Perry Jones ($2.03 million in 2015) – neither decision has to be made until the trade deadline next year, but they have options to reduce cost.
So the idea that the Thunder can’t pay Jackson is a little misplaced, because they can. It becomes expensive if another team puts a $12 million offer on the table, which is surely what Jackson’s agent is going to seek in July, even if it’s a shorter term deal simply to get that first year as high as possible to force the Thunder’s hand.
With the salary cap looking to balloon in 2016, this isn’t nearly the problem it’s made to be, but that is the popular narrative.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle of that.
Some of that is the Thunder and their mindset, some of that is Jackson and his mindset.
The Thunder have a starting point guard. His name is Russell Westbrook and he is one of the best players at his position. As much as it seems to make sense to slide him over to the two guard spot, the Thunder do not see that as workable for them, meaning Jackson is the sixth man on his best day.
Here is the problem: Jackson doesn’t want to be the sixth man. He wants to start, as most players do. The idea of spending his career from the bench isn’t overly appealing and he has become a little pouty about it.
The Thunder saw an opportunity to grab Waiters for basically nothing in their part of the three-team deal with the Cavaliers, because they saw Waiters as more of a natural sixth man player and that’s has marginalized Jackson even more.
The problem with Jackson and the Thunder is not financial. That surely plays a small role, but it is really philosophical.
They have a clearly defined role they want Jackson to play and they would pay him well to play it.
He doesn’t want that role or the salary that the Thunder have ear marked for it. He wants a better role, and with that a better paycheck.
The narrative is the Thunder won’t pay him. That’s not really the case, the Thunder don’t need Jackson to start. They know full well he can, but that’s not a need they want to fill.
The arrival of Waiters gives the Thunder options. One of those options is to trade Jackson, which they very well may do.
But much like James Harden in 2012, this won’t be nearly as much about money as the role the player wants to play versus the role that the Thunder have for him.
Money is always a factor, but the Thunder can pay Jackson and still avoid the luxury tax if they really wanted to. The problem is paying a guy what could be $12 million a year to be the sixth man isn’t necessarily smart for a small market team. Paying a guy at the top end of his position to play from the bench isn’t smart either.
If Jackson goes, and he very well might, it’s going to be because he is not the player they need him to be. The money part just makes it easier to justify.
That’s not nearly as sexy a narrative as “they can’t pay him”; they can, they just may not want to with where things are in the relationship.
»In Related: Who Still Has Cap Salary Space? How About Cap Exceptions?
Jimmy Butler And The Bulls: Is he worth the max yet? In October the Chicago Bulls and Jimmy Butler met to hash out terms of a contract extension. Typical to how the Bulls handle things, they locked in on an $11 million per year price. That number worked up from about $9 million a year when the process started.
Butler considered the offer carefully as he really wanted to stay in Chicago. As the deadline ticked closer there was a sense that maybe Butler would cave a little and take the bird in the hand if the Bulls came up just a little. However, something stuck in his mind: was he being valued based on what he did last year or what he could be going forward?
At one point he asked the Bulls if they thought he’d shoot as badly as he did last year? It was more rhetorical, but it set the tone for how things went all the way to deadline, where he ultimately decided to “gamble on himself”.
Butler endured a nasty case of turf toe last year, and played through it all year, grinding out major minutes on a bad foot. He knew he needed to play in order to get a contract, so typical for Butler he just grinded it out. He had trouble getting proper lift on his shot. His body hurt a lot, so he didn’t by his own admission post great numbers.
He knew his could handle the grind better this season and believed he could post better numbers. His agents gave him the lay of the land too.
There are as many as 15 NBA teams that’s could have $15 million or more in cap space to play with and that’s including teams looking for a tent pole player like the Knicks and the Lakers.
So Butler declined the extension and rolled the dice.
So far it’s paying off in a huge way.
As of last night Butler is scoring 20.6 points per game on 46.4 percent field goal shooting (3rd best on the team). He is kicking in 34.2 percent from the three-point line and leads the team in steals. Butler is posting the teams second best PER at 21.3, just a nose behind Pau Gasol who is posting a solid 22.6 PER.
It is likely that Butler, who was drafted with the 30th pick in the 2011 Draft, will be added to the 2015 NBA All-Star team, likely as a reserve.
The gamble seems to be paying off.
There have been reports that the Bulls want to take a proactive approach to Butler this summer and deliver a full max offer to him on July 1 before any other teams can get in front of him.
Here is the problem for Chicago: Butler is going to set the terms.
He wants to remain in Chicago and a max salary is going to be required, but what is also going to be required is options.
Butler is going to want the chance to re-set his contract under the new ballooning salary cap. He is also going to want a trade kicker, and he’ll want his contract structured in a way that makes him really hard or highly unfavorable to trade.
The Bulls and Butler will likely make a deal this summer. Both sides want that. What has changed is Butler is now in the driver’s seat on what that deal looks like, mainly because he knew he’d have a better year this year than he did last year.
The funny thing about all of this is had the Bulls moved their offer to $12.5 million a year, Butler might have signed it. Now it’s going to cost a lot more money going forward.
»In Related: Who Are The Top NBA Draft Prospects For The 2015 NBA Draft?
The Sell Off In Denver: When the Nuggets decided to cash out center Timofey Mozgov to the Cleveland Cavaliers in return for two highly protected draft picks, Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly said he doubted his team would be selling off anything else.
That has not stopped teams from calling, sensing there was blood in the water and the Nuggets may be open for business.
The two biggest names being inquired about are Wilson Chandler ($6.75 million) and Arron Afflalo ($7.5 million).
Chandler’s deal is only partially guaranteed for $2 million next year so he could be an interesting rental. Chandler is posting 14.2 points per game on 41.7 percent field goal shooting. Meanwhile Afflalo is kicking in 15.5 points per game on 44.7 percent field goal shooting.
Neither player is playing overly efficient basketball and both seem like they will lose time to a returning Danilo Gallinari, who could see action in the coming weeks after tearing his meniscus recently.
The Nuggets have been listening to offers according to league sources, however they don’t seem overly engaged at this point, but that could change once they see what Gallinari looks like after almost a year and nine months away from basketball.
The Nuggets have been as Jekyll and Hyde as anyone in basketball, stringing together chunks of wins and losses all season. The Nuggets are currently riding a hot streak of four straight wins, but still find themselves three and half games out of the eighth seed in the West and three games below .500.
The 2015 NBA trade deadline is February 19 at 3:00pm EST, so the Nuggets have roughly 37 days to figure out if they are going to compete or if its time to start selling off pieces.
Other teams sense there may be blood in the water, but the Nuggets don’t believe they are dead just yet.
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Fully stocked and ready, Spurs start prep for playoffs
Injuries forced San Antonio to try and hold it together, but they're now taking aim at climbing the ranks out West.
POSTED: Jan 19, 2015 10:59 AM ET
BY David Aldridge
TNT Analyst
@daldridgetnt | Archive
Kawhi Leonard's recent return to the Spurs' lineup is making coach Gregg Popovich's job a lot easier.
He views his protégés' seasons with the appropriate amount of derision and scorn.
"They really make me angry, those guys," Gregg Popovich said of Atlanta Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer and Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr. "They could at least change the calls."
For the sarcasm-challenged, he was kidding. Popovich is of course delighted for his longtime friends, who currently are on top in their respective conferences -- playing the way Popovich's Spurs have for 18 years. It is the way the Spurs hope to play again this season, in enough time to have some say about capturing a back-to-back championship, the only remaining accomplishment unearned during the Tim Duncan Era.
The Spurs have been under the radar most of this season, barely hanging on to a playoff spot in the West while waiting for key players to return. They've made uncharacteristic mistakes at the ends of games, and they've got the usual Western Conference gantlet to traverse.
And they're old. Did we mention they're old? (Gratuitous 'Spurs Can't Do It Again 'Cause They're Too Old Reference' ©2005, Old Man Riverwalk Productions).
But they're slowly getting the group back on the court that helped stand the NBA on its head during a 2014 Finals demolition of the Miami Heat. Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, who'd missed 28 games with hand and eye injuries, returned Friday against Portland. Leonard's return followed Tony Parker being able to play 30 minutes on his hamstring last week for the first time since initially pulling it Dec. 5.
Parker's return came as guard Patty Mills, who underwent shoulder surgery after The Finals, finally got back in the lineup Dec. 28. And Mills' return came after center Tiago Splitter got back on the court in early December after missing 20 of San Antonio's first 21 games with a calf injury.
So you could understand how Popovich was doggone near sanguine discussing his team's struggles last week.
"You know, we're hanging in there pretty good," he said. "The injuries and the schedule coincided at a bad time. Those seven back to backs in December and the injuries were really tough for us. We started off well. We beat Golden State, the Clippers and Memphis on the road; we beat Dallas and somebody else that's good at home. Then the injuries hit and the schedule hit. And they've hung in pretty well.
"Now Mills is back and Splitter's back, and if we can get Belli (guard Marco Belinelli) back and Leonard, I think we can be what we were last year. It'll be tough to have the same positioning, probably, but if we get those guys back I think we can be a pretty good team."
The Spurs were 13-4 on Dec. 1, having won eight straight. But they were just 8-10 in December, the franchise's first full losing month since February, 1999. The Spurs have had injuries before, but these really hurt their offensive continuity.
They had to ask a lot out of guys who weren't used to having that kind of burden on them.
"It's not something new to us," guard Danny Green said. "We had injuries last year. We had a lot of them. It happened at different parts of the season, and it went by quick. Everybody came back. I feel like some of these (this season) are lingering. Some guys have been out. But we've just got to adapt ourselves like we've done in the past. It's not really that hard. It's not easy, either, to take everybody's best shot. But we've got to have the guys out there step up like we've done in the past.
"The only difference is we're not having enough guys step up. We're not playing well enough. We're not shooting well enough. Or teams are just giving us a hell of a shot when we're out there. So it's a combination of all of those, and with the schedule being tighter with more back to backs, and it's a shorter All-Star break, it makes it tough. But we have to find a way, and I think we will. It's taking some time. January, we're trying to get our legs underneath us again."
The Spurs also lost in odd fashion, with guys like Marc Gasol making 3-pointers to tie games at the end of regulation, and with Tim Duncan turning the ball over on an inbounds play against Detroit, leading to Brandon Jennings' game-winning floater.
"The here and now and the games that we have to prepare for now is going to help us down the road," Mills said. "The process, we really need to have it at the moment. It's one game at a time. We always say that. But I think it's even more important at this stage."
The injuries also put Popovich behind the eight-ball when it comes to the team's most important objective: keeping Duncan fresh for the playoffs.
Last season, everything worked nearly perfectly. No one on the team averaged more than Parker's 29.4 minutes per game, a preposterously good division of playing time that gave San Antonio some added jump in the postseason. And Duncan averaged just 29.2 mpg during the regular season.
But the injuries this season have conspired against the Spurs' plans.
Leonard is San Antonio's best individual defender, capable of locking up just about every high-volume scorer in the league for long stretches. Without his length and vice-like hands on the perimeter contesting shots and getting deflections, teams had a lot more success driving the paint, an original sin in Popovichian Lore. (Also telling without Leonard: for a generation, the Spurs have defended without fouling. They have been in the top three in fewest fouls committed seven of the last eight seasons. But this season, they are 13th in fewest fouls committed.)
We've been playing zone and all kinds of things. I don't know what I'm doing. They say 'what are we doing tonight?' 'Two-three.' 'Well, what if -- ' 'Don't ask me any questions. I don't have any answers. Two-three. Go out and do it.'
– San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich
That meant the Spurs have had to leave Duncan, their only real shot blocker, on the floor for much longer stretches this season. And Duncan's averaging 31 minutes per game so far this season. That included some whoppers in December: 39 minutes, 58 seconds against the Lakers; 47:44 in San Antonio's triple-overtime loss to the Grizzlies, followed by another 43:02 two days later in a second consecutive triple-OT game -- and another loss -- to Portland. Duncan has already played more than 35 minutes nine times this season; he did it nine times total in 2013-14.
That slog led Popovich to use platoon substitutions in several December games, going to three-guard lineups with Manu Ginobili, Mills and Cory Joseph for extended stretches. He's already had 21 different starting lineups on the floor, with rookie Kyle Anderson starting eight games in December and the recently waived Austin Daye getting a start at power forward against Minnesota earlier this month.
The team you could set your watch by year after year has had to improvise.
"We've been playing zone and all kinds of things," Popovich said. "I don't know what I'm doing. They say 'what are we doing tonight?' 'Two-three.' 'Well, what if -- ' 'Don't ask me any questions. I don't have any answers. Two-three. Go out and do it.' And they've done it pretty well. They did it in college, what the heck."
The Spurs are doing okay defensively -- they're fifth in the league in defensive rating. But they're eighth in opponent field goal percentage, 12th in opponent 3-point percentage and seventh in points allowed.
"We've been doing that, with lineups, with the platoon thing that we were doing for a while," Duncan said. "Pop's trying to change it up left and right -- one, to keep us fresh, two, to try and find something that works. He's trying to do that on the fly, trying to make things up, trying to generate energy, however it can come. Some of that, we've lost some of that consistency and that rhythm. It's helped us in certain situations, keeping our energy up, not wearing people down, getting a lot of people a lot of time, giving teams different looks that they're not used to in all those respects."
Anderson isn't likely to see as much playing time now that Leonard is back, and the Spurs cut Daye on Friday to sign NBA D-Leaguer JaMychal Green to a 10-day contract. But Popovich has shown he's not reluctant to play young guys he thought could handle the load. That's how Parker broke in, after all, as a late first-round pick in 2001, as well as Duncan, of course. But so have guys like George Hill (77 appearances as a rookie in 2008-09; 43 starts the following season), DeJuan Blair (82 games and 23 starts as a rookie in 2009-10) and Leonard (39 starts as a rookie in 2011-12).
"Slo-Mo is coming along," Danny Green said of Anderson, San Antonio's first-round pick. "The first couple of games he struggled, but he's taking his time, slowing down. He's finding himself within the system, knows where he belongs, knows where his shots are. Rebounds, and his defense is getting better with it. So we can rely on those guys when we have some bodies out, to step in and actually get the job done. It may not be for long stretches of time, but certain times, we can count on them for certain stretches of time."
Everybody's got injuries in the league. It's just the way we play, and do it as a team, and the chemistry, that's why it's been hurting us lately. We've been in every game; we're just losing at the end all the time.
Parker's return stalled twice last month, so the Spurs sat him for 10 days. They are increasing his workload in small increments. His hamstring is healed, but Parker is still cognizant of it when he tries to change speeds. And that could be keeping him from getting to the basket. According to basketball-reference.com, Parker's average shot distance this season is 12.3 feet. Last season, it was 9.8 feet.
"My whole game is based on changing speeds, beating guys one-on-one to create for my teammates and for myself," he said. "So I'll come back. I just have to feel confident."
His shooting is still coming around, and he only had 11 assists in his first five games back. Leonard returns, and voila (see what I did there?), Parker had seven assists Friday night.
"It's no excuse," Parker said. "Everybody's got injuries in the league. It's just the way we play, and do it as a team, and the chemistry, that's why it's been hurting us lately. We've been in every game; we're just losing at the end all the time. And that's why, at the same time, we want to win, obviously, but we can't worry too much. We just have to get everybody healthy and make sure once the second half of the season starts, make sure we've got everybody healthy so we can make our run."
Mills missed 12 of his first 13 3-pointers when he returned, but after those first three games back he's shot 18 of 37 (48.6 percent) behind the arc.
Leonard looked like he hadn't missed a beat in his debut Friday, scoring 20 points in the Spurs' win over Portland. He'll obviously be a big help to an offense that was just 12th in offensive rating while he was out. Defenses looked like they were figuring out the Spurs' hammer sets, a staple of their halfcourt attack, though Green thinks otherwise.
"It's a timing thing," Green said. "It's hard to prepare for it and be ready for it. It's one of those plays, it's hard. You're playing defense and you help the helper, and Manu gets a step on somebody, it's hard to guard. You have to give up something. It's going to be the hammer shot, or it's going to be a layup for Manu, or one of the bigs underneath. We've just got to execute it the right way and take our time."
They believe time is still on their side.
"Hopefully we can batten down and kind of figure out how we want to play," Duncan said. "I think our consistency isn't there, and that's the biggest problem right now. We get healthy, and we got our rotation down the right way, and we understand what we want to do, I think that will come back and I think that will turn into wins."
It's not even halfway through the season now. We've got a lot of time to turn it. And we're counting on that. We're not worried where we are right now; we want to worry about where we finish.
They have six of their next eight games at home before embarking on the yearly Rodeo Trip -- this year, nine games over 20 days, including the All-Star break.
They have gone 71-29 in the 12 years they've taken the trip, and though the effectiveness of all that bonding on the road is always uncertain ("I don't know if it's ever a good year for the Rodeo Trip," Duncan said), the Spurs almost always come out of it with momentum -- and with a whole lot of home games in March as the stretch drive begins.
And they have the confidence borne of multiple championship runs by their coach and core group. They've been in the last two Finals, and they can win on the road, anywhere.
"At this point, it doesn't matter where we're at; we just want to get in," Duncan said. "We're fighting in that respect right now. But there's a lot of season left. It's not even halfway through the season now. We've got a lot of time to turn it. And we're counting on that. We're not worried where we are right now; we want to worry about where we finish."
They're not too old, in case you were wondering.
"Winning championships is different, no matter how you slice it," Popovich said. "But you don't have to have the best record in the league to win a championship. We've done both. We've done everything. We've gotten beat in the first round, we've been low (seeded) and won the whole thing, we've been first and won the whole thing. Every year's a different animal. It's a different mosaic, so to speak, and you just try to put it together the best you can. So hopefully we have good times to look forward to when we get everybody back."
Injuries forced San Antonio to try and hold it together, but they're now taking aim at climbing the ranks out West.
POSTED: Jan 19, 2015 10:59 AM ET
BY David Aldridge
TNT Analyst
@daldridgetnt | Archive
Kawhi Leonard's recent return to the Spurs' lineup is making coach Gregg Popovich's job a lot easier.
He views his protégés' seasons with the appropriate amount of derision and scorn.
"They really make me angry, those guys," Gregg Popovich said of Atlanta Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer and Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr. "They could at least change the calls."
For the sarcasm-challenged, he was kidding. Popovich is of course delighted for his longtime friends, who currently are on top in their respective conferences -- playing the way Popovich's Spurs have for 18 years. It is the way the Spurs hope to play again this season, in enough time to have some say about capturing a back-to-back championship, the only remaining accomplishment unearned during the Tim Duncan Era.
The Spurs have been under the radar most of this season, barely hanging on to a playoff spot in the West while waiting for key players to return. They've made uncharacteristic mistakes at the ends of games, and they've got the usual Western Conference gantlet to traverse.
And they're old. Did we mention they're old? (Gratuitous 'Spurs Can't Do It Again 'Cause They're Too Old Reference' ©2005, Old Man Riverwalk Productions).
But they're slowly getting the group back on the court that helped stand the NBA on its head during a 2014 Finals demolition of the Miami Heat. Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, who'd missed 28 games with hand and eye injuries, returned Friday against Portland. Leonard's return followed Tony Parker being able to play 30 minutes on his hamstring last week for the first time since initially pulling it Dec. 5.
Parker's return came as guard Patty Mills, who underwent shoulder surgery after The Finals, finally got back in the lineup Dec. 28. And Mills' return came after center Tiago Splitter got back on the court in early December after missing 20 of San Antonio's first 21 games with a calf injury.
So you could understand how Popovich was doggone near sanguine discussing his team's struggles last week.
"You know, we're hanging in there pretty good," he said. "The injuries and the schedule coincided at a bad time. Those seven back to backs in December and the injuries were really tough for us. We started off well. We beat Golden State, the Clippers and Memphis on the road; we beat Dallas and somebody else that's good at home. Then the injuries hit and the schedule hit. And they've hung in pretty well.
"Now Mills is back and Splitter's back, and if we can get Belli (guard Marco Belinelli) back and Leonard, I think we can be what we were last year. It'll be tough to have the same positioning, probably, but if we get those guys back I think we can be a pretty good team."
The Spurs were 13-4 on Dec. 1, having won eight straight. But they were just 8-10 in December, the franchise's first full losing month since February, 1999. The Spurs have had injuries before, but these really hurt their offensive continuity.
They had to ask a lot out of guys who weren't used to having that kind of burden on them.
"It's not something new to us," guard Danny Green said. "We had injuries last year. We had a lot of them. It happened at different parts of the season, and it went by quick. Everybody came back. I feel like some of these (this season) are lingering. Some guys have been out. But we've just got to adapt ourselves like we've done in the past. It's not really that hard. It's not easy, either, to take everybody's best shot. But we've got to have the guys out there step up like we've done in the past.
"The only difference is we're not having enough guys step up. We're not playing well enough. We're not shooting well enough. Or teams are just giving us a hell of a shot when we're out there. So it's a combination of all of those, and with the schedule being tighter with more back to backs, and it's a shorter All-Star break, it makes it tough. But we have to find a way, and I think we will. It's taking some time. January, we're trying to get our legs underneath us again."
The Spurs also lost in odd fashion, with guys like Marc Gasol making 3-pointers to tie games at the end of regulation, and with Tim Duncan turning the ball over on an inbounds play against Detroit, leading to Brandon Jennings' game-winning floater.
"The here and now and the games that we have to prepare for now is going to help us down the road," Mills said. "The process, we really need to have it at the moment. It's one game at a time. We always say that. But I think it's even more important at this stage."
The injuries also put Popovich behind the eight-ball when it comes to the team's most important objective: keeping Duncan fresh for the playoffs.
Last season, everything worked nearly perfectly. No one on the team averaged more than Parker's 29.4 minutes per game, a preposterously good division of playing time that gave San Antonio some added jump in the postseason. And Duncan averaged just 29.2 mpg during the regular season.
But the injuries this season have conspired against the Spurs' plans.
Leonard is San Antonio's best individual defender, capable of locking up just about every high-volume scorer in the league for long stretches. Without his length and vice-like hands on the perimeter contesting shots and getting deflections, teams had a lot more success driving the paint, an original sin in Popovichian Lore. (Also telling without Leonard: for a generation, the Spurs have defended without fouling. They have been in the top three in fewest fouls committed seven of the last eight seasons. But this season, they are 13th in fewest fouls committed.)
We've been playing zone and all kinds of things. I don't know what I'm doing. They say 'what are we doing tonight?' 'Two-three.' 'Well, what if -- ' 'Don't ask me any questions. I don't have any answers. Two-three. Go out and do it.'
– San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich
That meant the Spurs have had to leave Duncan, their only real shot blocker, on the floor for much longer stretches this season. And Duncan's averaging 31 minutes per game so far this season. That included some whoppers in December: 39 minutes, 58 seconds against the Lakers; 47:44 in San Antonio's triple-overtime loss to the Grizzlies, followed by another 43:02 two days later in a second consecutive triple-OT game -- and another loss -- to Portland. Duncan has already played more than 35 minutes nine times this season; he did it nine times total in 2013-14.
That slog led Popovich to use platoon substitutions in several December games, going to three-guard lineups with Manu Ginobili, Mills and Cory Joseph for extended stretches. He's already had 21 different starting lineups on the floor, with rookie Kyle Anderson starting eight games in December and the recently waived Austin Daye getting a start at power forward against Minnesota earlier this month.
The team you could set your watch by year after year has had to improvise.
"We've been playing zone and all kinds of things," Popovich said. "I don't know what I'm doing. They say 'what are we doing tonight?' 'Two-three.' 'Well, what if -- ' 'Don't ask me any questions. I don't have any answers. Two-three. Go out and do it.' And they've done it pretty well. They did it in college, what the heck."
The Spurs are doing okay defensively -- they're fifth in the league in defensive rating. But they're eighth in opponent field goal percentage, 12th in opponent 3-point percentage and seventh in points allowed.
"We've been doing that, with lineups, with the platoon thing that we were doing for a while," Duncan said. "Pop's trying to change it up left and right -- one, to keep us fresh, two, to try and find something that works. He's trying to do that on the fly, trying to make things up, trying to generate energy, however it can come. Some of that, we've lost some of that consistency and that rhythm. It's helped us in certain situations, keeping our energy up, not wearing people down, getting a lot of people a lot of time, giving teams different looks that they're not used to in all those respects."
Anderson isn't likely to see as much playing time now that Leonard is back, and the Spurs cut Daye on Friday to sign NBA D-Leaguer JaMychal Green to a 10-day contract. But Popovich has shown he's not reluctant to play young guys he thought could handle the load. That's how Parker broke in, after all, as a late first-round pick in 2001, as well as Duncan, of course. But so have guys like George Hill (77 appearances as a rookie in 2008-09; 43 starts the following season), DeJuan Blair (82 games and 23 starts as a rookie in 2009-10) and Leonard (39 starts as a rookie in 2011-12).
"Slo-Mo is coming along," Danny Green said of Anderson, San Antonio's first-round pick. "The first couple of games he struggled, but he's taking his time, slowing down. He's finding himself within the system, knows where he belongs, knows where his shots are. Rebounds, and his defense is getting better with it. So we can rely on those guys when we have some bodies out, to step in and actually get the job done. It may not be for long stretches of time, but certain times, we can count on them for certain stretches of time."
Everybody's got injuries in the league. It's just the way we play, and do it as a team, and the chemistry, that's why it's been hurting us lately. We've been in every game; we're just losing at the end all the time.
Parker's return stalled twice last month, so the Spurs sat him for 10 days. They are increasing his workload in small increments. His hamstring is healed, but Parker is still cognizant of it when he tries to change speeds. And that could be keeping him from getting to the basket. According to basketball-reference.com, Parker's average shot distance this season is 12.3 feet. Last season, it was 9.8 feet.
"My whole game is based on changing speeds, beating guys one-on-one to create for my teammates and for myself," he said. "So I'll come back. I just have to feel confident."
His shooting is still coming around, and he only had 11 assists in his first five games back. Leonard returns, and voila (see what I did there?), Parker had seven assists Friday night.
"It's no excuse," Parker said. "Everybody's got injuries in the league. It's just the way we play, and do it as a team, and the chemistry, that's why it's been hurting us lately. We've been in every game; we're just losing at the end all the time. And that's why, at the same time, we want to win, obviously, but we can't worry too much. We just have to get everybody healthy and make sure once the second half of the season starts, make sure we've got everybody healthy so we can make our run."
Mills missed 12 of his first 13 3-pointers when he returned, but after those first three games back he's shot 18 of 37 (48.6 percent) behind the arc.
Leonard looked like he hadn't missed a beat in his debut Friday, scoring 20 points in the Spurs' win over Portland. He'll obviously be a big help to an offense that was just 12th in offensive rating while he was out. Defenses looked like they were figuring out the Spurs' hammer sets, a staple of their halfcourt attack, though Green thinks otherwise.
"It's a timing thing," Green said. "It's hard to prepare for it and be ready for it. It's one of those plays, it's hard. You're playing defense and you help the helper, and Manu gets a step on somebody, it's hard to guard. You have to give up something. It's going to be the hammer shot, or it's going to be a layup for Manu, or one of the bigs underneath. We've just got to execute it the right way and take our time."
They believe time is still on their side.
"Hopefully we can batten down and kind of figure out how we want to play," Duncan said. "I think our consistency isn't there, and that's the biggest problem right now. We get healthy, and we got our rotation down the right way, and we understand what we want to do, I think that will come back and I think that will turn into wins."
It's not even halfway through the season now. We've got a lot of time to turn it. And we're counting on that. We're not worried where we are right now; we want to worry about where we finish.
They have six of their next eight games at home before embarking on the yearly Rodeo Trip -- this year, nine games over 20 days, including the All-Star break.
They have gone 71-29 in the 12 years they've taken the trip, and though the effectiveness of all that bonding on the road is always uncertain ("I don't know if it's ever a good year for the Rodeo Trip," Duncan said), the Spurs almost always come out of it with momentum -- and with a whole lot of home games in March as the stretch drive begins.
And they have the confidence borne of multiple championship runs by their coach and core group. They've been in the last two Finals, and they can win on the road, anywhere.
"At this point, it doesn't matter where we're at; we just want to get in," Duncan said. "We're fighting in that respect right now. But there's a lot of season left. It's not even halfway through the season now. We've got a lot of time to turn it. And we're counting on that. We're not worried where we are right now; we want to worry about where we finish."
They're not too old, in case you were wondering.
"Winning championships is different, no matter how you slice it," Popovich said. "But you don't have to have the best record in the league to win a championship. We've done both. We've done everything. We've gotten beat in the first round, we've been low (seeded) and won the whole thing, we've been first and won the whole thing. Every year's a different animal. It's a different mosaic, so to speak, and you just try to put it together the best you can. So hopefully we have good times to look forward to when we get everybody back."
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Article about NBA coaches on the hot seat:
The 2014-15 NBA season is coming up on the midway point for most teams. Some teams have already hit the 41-game mark on their season while others are just a couple of games away. The halfway mark of the season is a good time to see how a team is progressing and what changes need to be made to further improve. Sometimes the changes that need to be made are relatively small, while other times the changes are drastic such as replacing the head coach.
The bar for head coaches across the league has been set very high in recent years and there has been plenty of turnover. There have been 10 coaching changes made within the past eight months alone, with the most recent move coming last month when the Sacramento Kings fired Mike Malone. At this point in the season, teams either find themselves in the playoff race or in the lottery race. Coaching changes are often made when a coach has proven that he can’t further improve his team, when he’s lost the locker room or simply because the team needs a new direction.
Here are five coaches who are on the hot seat:
Jacque Vaughn, Orlando Magic (15-29)
If there’s one thing that’s been clear in Orlando, it’s that the Magic have not lived up to expectations. Vaughn was hired two seasons ago with the expectation that the team would be building from the ground up after parting ways with Dwight Howard. With that also came an expectation that Vaughn would eventually have to put it all together and show that his team is capable of winning games and it seems that time has come for Vaughn in Orlando. To be fair, Vaughn is working with a really young team and has had to deal with several injuries to key players, but a 15-29 record just over the halfway point can’t be blamed entirely on inexperience and injuries.
Vaughn has shown flashes of becoming a successful head coach, but he has been inconsistent. Also, some of his rotations and decisions have been questionable. The Magic have accumulated just five wins at home and are ahead of only the Timberwolves, Knicks and 76ers on their home court. The team has suffered some embarrassing losses like the 127-99 home defeat against the Thunder on Sunday night or the 101-84 loss to the Lakers earlier this month and the 96-88 home loss to the 76ers back in December. It appears that Vaughn may not have the full approval of the front office, as general manager Rob Hennigan recently seemed non-committal about Vaughn’s job security.
Ty Corbin, Sacramento Kings (16-24)
It seems as though Corbin will remain the team’s head coach for the duration of this season, but it doesn’t seem likely he’ll remain on board much longer after that. The Kings signed Corbin through the end of this season, but failed to share that with the players as most of them found out the news via Twitter.
Since the Kings opted to fire Mike Malone, the team has gone 5-10 under Corbin and has looked lost. The players seem uninterested in Corbin as their coach and seem to feel betrayed by the firing of Malone. Rudy Gay has said as much and questions the team’s direction.
“I feel lost,” Gay said, via the Sacramento Bee. “I feel like I’ve changed my game to be more of a playmaker. I’ve made an effort to do that. At times I get lost out there. But everybody is lost. There is no movement, no offensive movement, no defensive movement. We get very stagnant. That’s a big part of our problem.”
DeMarcus Cousins has also been critical of the team’s recent play and seems upset with the coaching change. Further reason to believe that Corbin will be out is that team has been linked heavily to free agent head coach George Karl. If the team is serious about hiring Karl, they could be waiting to make a move during the offseason when Karl has an opportunity to hire his own coaching staff and make improvements to the roster. The team has also been linked to Mark Jackson and talked about hiring Chris Mullin from within the organization, but it appears Karl is their main target.
Brian Shaw, Denver Nuggets (18-23)
Coming into the season, the Nuggets were pegged as a team that could be a dark horse playoff contender. The team brought back Arron Afflalo in a trade with the Magic and were returning a healthy squad after a 2013-14 campaign in which they were decimated by injuries. Even in the tough Western Conference, many thought the Nuggets would be able to compete.
After 42 games, the Nuggets have picked up just 18 wins and are currently sitting 11th in the West – five and a half games out of the last playoff spot. This is a veteran-laden team that should be winning now, as they have one of the most underrated point guards in the league in Ty Lawson who is currently leading the league in assists and a shooting guard in Afflalo who is a talented two-way threat, a very good forward in Kenneth Faried who signed a four-year, $50 million extension in October and is coming off of a productive summer with Team USA. With complementary players in Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari Randy Foye and J.J. Hickson, the Nuggets should be better than their record currently reflects and it could be Shaw that pays the price.
Monty Williams, New Orleans Pelicans (20-21)
The Pelicans are another team that should be better than their record indicates. Like the Nuggets last season, the Pelicans also suffered a lot of injuries. However, the Pelicans have remained relatively healthy this season with Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson and Omer Asik all playing at least 35 games. Still, Monday’s loss to the Knicks dropped the Pelicans three and a half games out of the last playoff spot.
As past moves indicate, it’s clear the Pelicans want to win right now. They have traded away multiple first-round picks to bring in veteran contributors such as Holiday and Asik. Williams might have been given a pass due to the amount of injuries last year, but he is under the microscope in New Orleans. The front office likely wanted to see what Williams could do with the team when they were healthy and hovering around .500 may not be enough. It’s too early to tell whether or not Williams’ job is safe, as that decision will likely come at the end of the season. If the team can stay alive in the playoff hunt for the rest of the season, that might buy Williams another season. However, it’s clear that the Pelicans pieces, specifically Davis, aren’t being utilized to their full potential.
The 2014-15 NBA season is coming up on the midway point for most teams. Some teams have already hit the 41-game mark on their season while others are just a couple of games away. The halfway mark of the season is a good time to see how a team is progressing and what changes need to be made to further improve. Sometimes the changes that need to be made are relatively small, while other times the changes are drastic such as replacing the head coach.
The bar for head coaches across the league has been set very high in recent years and there has been plenty of turnover. There have been 10 coaching changes made within the past eight months alone, with the most recent move coming last month when the Sacramento Kings fired Mike Malone. At this point in the season, teams either find themselves in the playoff race or in the lottery race. Coaching changes are often made when a coach has proven that he can’t further improve his team, when he’s lost the locker room or simply because the team needs a new direction.
Here are five coaches who are on the hot seat:
Jacque Vaughn, Orlando Magic (15-29)
If there’s one thing that’s been clear in Orlando, it’s that the Magic have not lived up to expectations. Vaughn was hired two seasons ago with the expectation that the team would be building from the ground up after parting ways with Dwight Howard. With that also came an expectation that Vaughn would eventually have to put it all together and show that his team is capable of winning games and it seems that time has come for Vaughn in Orlando. To be fair, Vaughn is working with a really young team and has had to deal with several injuries to key players, but a 15-29 record just over the halfway point can’t be blamed entirely on inexperience and injuries.
Vaughn has shown flashes of becoming a successful head coach, but he has been inconsistent. Also, some of his rotations and decisions have been questionable. The Magic have accumulated just five wins at home and are ahead of only the Timberwolves, Knicks and 76ers on their home court. The team has suffered some embarrassing losses like the 127-99 home defeat against the Thunder on Sunday night or the 101-84 loss to the Lakers earlier this month and the 96-88 home loss to the 76ers back in December. It appears that Vaughn may not have the full approval of the front office, as general manager Rob Hennigan recently seemed non-committal about Vaughn’s job security.
Ty Corbin, Sacramento Kings (16-24)
It seems as though Corbin will remain the team’s head coach for the duration of this season, but it doesn’t seem likely he’ll remain on board much longer after that. The Kings signed Corbin through the end of this season, but failed to share that with the players as most of them found out the news via Twitter.
Since the Kings opted to fire Mike Malone, the team has gone 5-10 under Corbin and has looked lost. The players seem uninterested in Corbin as their coach and seem to feel betrayed by the firing of Malone. Rudy Gay has said as much and questions the team’s direction.
“I feel lost,” Gay said, via the Sacramento Bee. “I feel like I’ve changed my game to be more of a playmaker. I’ve made an effort to do that. At times I get lost out there. But everybody is lost. There is no movement, no offensive movement, no defensive movement. We get very stagnant. That’s a big part of our problem.”
DeMarcus Cousins has also been critical of the team’s recent play and seems upset with the coaching change. Further reason to believe that Corbin will be out is that team has been linked heavily to free agent head coach George Karl. If the team is serious about hiring Karl, they could be waiting to make a move during the offseason when Karl has an opportunity to hire his own coaching staff and make improvements to the roster. The team has also been linked to Mark Jackson and talked about hiring Chris Mullin from within the organization, but it appears Karl is their main target.
Brian Shaw, Denver Nuggets (18-23)
Coming into the season, the Nuggets were pegged as a team that could be a dark horse playoff contender. The team brought back Arron Afflalo in a trade with the Magic and were returning a healthy squad after a 2013-14 campaign in which they were decimated by injuries. Even in the tough Western Conference, many thought the Nuggets would be able to compete.
After 42 games, the Nuggets have picked up just 18 wins and are currently sitting 11th in the West – five and a half games out of the last playoff spot. This is a veteran-laden team that should be winning now, as they have one of the most underrated point guards in the league in Ty Lawson who is currently leading the league in assists and a shooting guard in Afflalo who is a talented two-way threat, a very good forward in Kenneth Faried who signed a four-year, $50 million extension in October and is coming off of a productive summer with Team USA. With complementary players in Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari Randy Foye and J.J. Hickson, the Nuggets should be better than their record currently reflects and it could be Shaw that pays the price.
Monty Williams, New Orleans Pelicans (20-21)
The Pelicans are another team that should be better than their record indicates. Like the Nuggets last season, the Pelicans also suffered a lot of injuries. However, the Pelicans have remained relatively healthy this season with Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson and Omer Asik all playing at least 35 games. Still, Monday’s loss to the Knicks dropped the Pelicans three and a half games out of the last playoff spot.
As past moves indicate, it’s clear the Pelicans want to win right now. They have traded away multiple first-round picks to bring in veteran contributors such as Holiday and Asik. Williams might have been given a pass due to the amount of injuries last year, but he is under the microscope in New Orleans. The front office likely wanted to see what Williams could do with the team when they were healthy and hovering around .500 may not be enough. It’s too early to tell whether or not Williams’ job is safe, as that decision will likely come at the end of the season. If the team can stay alive in the playoff hunt for the rest of the season, that might buy Williams another season. However, it’s clear that the Pelicans pieces, specifically Davis, aren’t being utilized to their full potential.
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Chris Bosh Failing to Meet Huge Contract, Expectations for New Miami Heat
By Dan Favale , Featured Columnist Jan 21, 2015
Chris Bosh is failing the new-look Miami Heat.
Pat Riley and the Heat were lauded for their swift recovery in the aftermath of LeBron James' departure. Bringing in a factotum like Luol Deng was shrewd. Inking Dwyane Wade to a properly priced pact was both a foregone conclusion and smart. Retaining and adding patchwork rotation players—Mario Chalmers, Chris Andersen, Josh McRoberts, Danny Granger, etc.—was necessary and even smarter still.
Handing Bosh a max contract after he spent four years as the team's third fiddle was costly, but essential.
With James gone and Wade ebbing, the Heat needed a superstar cornerstone. And those don't sprout out of the ground like daisies. Bosh was already in Miami, was willing to stay and, on paper, gave the Heat an opportunity to contend for a top-five playoff spot in the scrambled Eastern Conference.
But that max contract came with caveats and conditions. The Heat are not the Cleveland Cavaliers. They would not settle for a years-long slump and charged Bosh with preventing said descent by throwing money at him.
And, relative to those expectations, Bosh is failing.
Failure to Adapt
USA TODAY Sports
The individual numbers are fine. Bosh is averaging 21.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on 47.4 percent shooting. He's also putting in a career-best 40.3 percent of his long balls on a career-high 3.8 attempts.
That his effective field-goal percentage (52)—which measures two- and three-pointers—is the fourth-best of his career despite seeing his usage rate jump by six percentage points from last season is even somewhat remarkable. His player efficiency rating (21.5) is the highest its been since he came to Miami as well.
All good things.
Yet, the Heat are just 18-23 and 1.5 games away from falling entirely out of the Eastern Conference's playoff picture. Seventh place isn't what they had in mind. They were supposed to be better than this.
Injuries haven't helped, of course. Bosh himself has missed eight games; McRoberts is done for the year after having surgery on his right knee to repair a torn meniscus; Wade is on pace to sit for at least 20 games again; and the surging Hassan Whiteside will miss time after injuring his right ankle in Miami's loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night, per The Palm Beach Post's Jason Lieser.
A bulk of the blame still falls on Bosh's play style, though. He's failed to fully adapt his game to that of a featured big man.
USA TODAY Sports
Miami's collective health bill hasn't help its cause, but Bosh himself has also underachieved.
Only 60 percent of his buckets are coming off assists this season, down from 80.1 percent in 2013-14 and a sign that he's not solely dependent on playmakers the Heat don't employ for his offense. But he's living on the perimeter, like he's still a complementary scorer rather than an alpha dog.
Said Bosh ahead of the new year, per the Sun-Sentinel's Shandel Richardson:
Old habits die hard. It's what I've been doing for four years. That's what we needed, we needed to spread the floor. Now, we can kind of play in the interior a little more. We don't have that 6-8, 260-pound point guard that can get in the lane. ...
Just getting closer to the basket. I think I've been outside a little bit too much. It's a little easier to kind of float around and shoot a couple more threes but I need to get back to my game, which is 15 feet and in. I want to get to the post a lot more and I think I'm a lot deadlier when I'm closer to the basket. Those two-point shots are a lot better than 20 feet.
Twenty-three percent of Bosh's total shot attempts are coming from deep, the most of his career. Though he is, again, burying those looks with career-best frequency, the absence of a consistent interior game is unsettling.
Here's a look at how Bosh's shot attempts are being distributed this season compared to last:
Bosh's Shot Distribution
%FGA Inside 8 FT FG% %FGA 8-16 FT FG% %FGA16-24 FT FG% %FGA 24+ FT FG%
2014-15 25.5 55.5 22.9 51.2 28.6 42.9 23 40.3
2013-14 36.0 66.5 13.5 48.1 27.6 48.7 22.9 33.9
NBA.com.
So much for the Heat playing "in the interior a little more."
While Bosh hits jumpers at impressive rates, there's no way more than half of his attempts should be coming between eight and 24 feet—especially when only 41.1 percent came from that same area last season. The Heat are not paying him to be a pre-2008 version of Rashard Lewis.
Mid-range jumpers are becoming progressively taboo in today's NBA. Even mid-range enthusiasts like LaMarcus Aldridge have adjusted their games. (More than 62 percent of his shots are coming between eight and 24 feet this season, but that's down from 68.8 percent in 2013-14, so he's trending in the right direction.)
Defenses will give Bosh those looks, hence why he's taking them. Defenders are just under 4.5 feet away from Bosh when he's shooting, which means he's enjoying the eighth-most space of anyone who has jacked at least 500 shots, per NBAsavant.com.
Not surprisingly, Bosh's average shot attempt is coming 15.1 feet away from the basket. For comparison's sake, Aldridge's average is 13.5 feet.
Issac Baldizon/Getty Images
Bosh's shot selection has not been conducive to that of a max-contract star.
Bosh needs to be more aware of the shots he's taking. These looks are falling now, but the law of numbers suggests that won't last. And even if his accuracy holds, he's handicapping other aspects of his game with an analytics-eschewing shot selection.
As Bleacher Report's Tom Sunnergren writes:
By Dan Favale , Featured Columnist Jan 21, 2015
Chris Bosh is failing the new-look Miami Heat.
Pat Riley and the Heat were lauded for their swift recovery in the aftermath of LeBron James' departure. Bringing in a factotum like Luol Deng was shrewd. Inking Dwyane Wade to a properly priced pact was both a foregone conclusion and smart. Retaining and adding patchwork rotation players—Mario Chalmers, Chris Andersen, Josh McRoberts, Danny Granger, etc.—was necessary and even smarter still.
Handing Bosh a max contract after he spent four years as the team's third fiddle was costly, but essential.
With James gone and Wade ebbing, the Heat needed a superstar cornerstone. And those don't sprout out of the ground like daisies. Bosh was already in Miami, was willing to stay and, on paper, gave the Heat an opportunity to contend for a top-five playoff spot in the scrambled Eastern Conference.
But that max contract came with caveats and conditions. The Heat are not the Cleveland Cavaliers. They would not settle for a years-long slump and charged Bosh with preventing said descent by throwing money at him.
And, relative to those expectations, Bosh is failing.
Failure to Adapt
The individual numbers are fine. Bosh is averaging 21.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on 47.4 percent shooting. He's also putting in a career-best 40.3 percent of his long balls on a career-high 3.8 attempts.
That his effective field-goal percentage (52)—which measures two- and three-pointers—is the fourth-best of his career despite seeing his usage rate jump by six percentage points from last season is even somewhat remarkable. His player efficiency rating (21.5) is the highest its been since he came to Miami as well.
All good things.
Yet, the Heat are just 18-23 and 1.5 games away from falling entirely out of the Eastern Conference's playoff picture. Seventh place isn't what they had in mind. They were supposed to be better than this.
Injuries haven't helped, of course. Bosh himself has missed eight games; McRoberts is done for the year after having surgery on his right knee to repair a torn meniscus; Wade is on pace to sit for at least 20 games again; and the surging Hassan Whiteside will miss time after injuring his right ankle in Miami's loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night, per The Palm Beach Post's Jason Lieser.
A bulk of the blame still falls on Bosh's play style, though. He's failed to fully adapt his game to that of a featured big man.
Miami's collective health bill hasn't help its cause, but Bosh himself has also underachieved.
Only 60 percent of his buckets are coming off assists this season, down from 80.1 percent in 2013-14 and a sign that he's not solely dependent on playmakers the Heat don't employ for his offense. But he's living on the perimeter, like he's still a complementary scorer rather than an alpha dog.
Said Bosh ahead of the new year, per the Sun-Sentinel's Shandel Richardson:
Old habits die hard. It's what I've been doing for four years. That's what we needed, we needed to spread the floor. Now, we can kind of play in the interior a little more. We don't have that 6-8, 260-pound point guard that can get in the lane. ...
Just getting closer to the basket. I think I've been outside a little bit too much. It's a little easier to kind of float around and shoot a couple more threes but I need to get back to my game, which is 15 feet and in. I want to get to the post a lot more and I think I'm a lot deadlier when I'm closer to the basket. Those two-point shots are a lot better than 20 feet.
Twenty-three percent of Bosh's total shot attempts are coming from deep, the most of his career. Though he is, again, burying those looks with career-best frequency, the absence of a consistent interior game is unsettling.
Here's a look at how Bosh's shot attempts are being distributed this season compared to last:
Bosh's Shot Distribution
%FGA Inside 8 FT FG% %FGA 8-16 FT FG% %FGA16-24 FT FG% %FGA 24+ FT FG%
2014-15 25.5 55.5 22.9 51.2 28.6 42.9 23 40.3
2013-14 36.0 66.5 13.5 48.1 27.6 48.7 22.9 33.9
NBA.com.
So much for the Heat playing "in the interior a little more."
While Bosh hits jumpers at impressive rates, there's no way more than half of his attempts should be coming between eight and 24 feet—especially when only 41.1 percent came from that same area last season. The Heat are not paying him to be a pre-2008 version of Rashard Lewis.
Mid-range jumpers are becoming progressively taboo in today's NBA. Even mid-range enthusiasts like LaMarcus Aldridge have adjusted their games. (More than 62 percent of his shots are coming between eight and 24 feet this season, but that's down from 68.8 percent in 2013-14, so he's trending in the right direction.)
Defenses will give Bosh those looks, hence why he's taking them. Defenders are just under 4.5 feet away from Bosh when he's shooting, which means he's enjoying the eighth-most space of anyone who has jacked at least 500 shots, per NBAsavant.com.
Not surprisingly, Bosh's average shot attempt is coming 15.1 feet away from the basket. For comparison's sake, Aldridge's average is 13.5 feet.
Bosh's shot selection has not been conducive to that of a max-contract star.
Bosh needs to be more aware of the shots he's taking. These looks are falling now, but the law of numbers suggests that won't last. And even if his accuracy holds, he's handicapping other aspects of his game with an analytics-eschewing shot selection.
As Bleacher Report's Tom Sunnergren writes:
To his credit, Bosh has developed a really effective three point shot—he’s shooting the triple at a 38.6 percent clip this season—but his efficient shooting within an inefficient area doesn’t do much to help his game.
Scoring efficiency aside, it puts a drag on his ability to collect rebounds, which in turn limits the number of shots his teammates can take—efficient or otherwise.
Miami ranks 27th in available rebounds grabbed. Bosh himself ranks just 64th in rebounding percentage among the 268 players who have made at least 30 appearances. His rebounding rate is actually worse now than it was during his first season with the Heat.
Living on the perimeter also limits his free-throw opportunities. He's averaging 5.7 charity-stripe attempts per game; Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins—fellow big men with similar usage rates—all clear at least six.
Such is the obstacle Miami faces: structuring an above-average offense around a forward-center who's performance has yet to truly stand out.
Defensive Lumps
USA TODAY Sports
More problems arise on the defensive end, where Bosh is having a season to forget.
Opponents are shooting 2.3 points above their average when being defended by him, and he's proved incapable or unwilling to protect the rim, per Grantland's Zach Lowe:
The Heat already rank 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions. When Bosh is on the floor, they're even worse. On-off splits aren't perfect, but they cannot be dismissed.
Playing next to Whiteside, as a power forward, has helped; Bosh's defensive performance has been markedly better when he shares the floor with Miami's rising 7-footer:
Bosh's Def. Rtg. With and Without Whiteside |Create infographics
But that's just a 10-game sample size, and Bosh remains Miami's primary center. More than 80 percent of his minutes have come at the 5, and he's blocking shots at sorry rates. He's never been considered a premier shot-swatter, but rejecting only 1.6 percent of those he defends pins Bosh to Kevin Love territory.
Expending additional energy on offense could be a driving force behind this defensive lethargy. But at 30 years old, in the prime of his career, on a max contract, Bosh needs to be a two-way player. And to this point, he has not.
Max-Contract Burden
USA TODAY Sports
Not all of the Heat's warts fall on Bosh. Their roster is fragile, their depth nonexistent, their talent inferior.
This, though, is the burden Bosh agreed to carry over the summer. He is most responsible for their livelihood.
They should not be a minus at power forward and center every night as they are, according to 82games.com. They should not be a fringe playoff team threatening to enter the lottery. Not with him, a superstar big man, headlining their roster.
So yes, relative to his contract and the expectations it carries, Bosh is underachieving. And should he fail to improve as the regular season winds down, the Heat will be left coping with a far greater problem: knowing they're paying Bosh to be someone he's not for another four years.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Jan. 20, 2015 unless otherwise cited.
Scoring efficiency aside, it puts a drag on his ability to collect rebounds, which in turn limits the number of shots his teammates can take—efficient or otherwise.
Miami ranks 27th in available rebounds grabbed. Bosh himself ranks just 64th in rebounding percentage among the 268 players who have made at least 30 appearances. His rebounding rate is actually worse now than it was during his first season with the Heat.
Living on the perimeter also limits his free-throw opportunities. He's averaging 5.7 charity-stripe attempts per game; Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins—fellow big men with similar usage rates—all clear at least six.
Such is the obstacle Miami faces: structuring an above-average offense around a forward-center who's performance has yet to truly stand out.
Defensive Lumps
More problems arise on the defensive end, where Bosh is having a season to forget.
Opponents are shooting 2.3 points above their average when being defended by him, and he's proved incapable or unwilling to protect the rim, per Grantland's Zach Lowe:
The Heat already rank 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions. When Bosh is on the floor, they're even worse. On-off splits aren't perfect, but they cannot be dismissed.
Playing next to Whiteside, as a power forward, has helped; Bosh's defensive performance has been markedly better when he shares the floor with Miami's rising 7-footer:
Bosh's Def. Rtg. With and Without Whiteside |Create infographics
But that's just a 10-game sample size, and Bosh remains Miami's primary center. More than 80 percent of his minutes have come at the 5, and he's blocking shots at sorry rates. He's never been considered a premier shot-swatter, but rejecting only 1.6 percent of those he defends pins Bosh to Kevin Love territory.
Expending additional energy on offense could be a driving force behind this defensive lethargy. But at 30 years old, in the prime of his career, on a max contract, Bosh needs to be a two-way player. And to this point, he has not.
Max-Contract Burden
Not all of the Heat's warts fall on Bosh. Their roster is fragile, their depth nonexistent, their talent inferior.
This, though, is the burden Bosh agreed to carry over the summer. He is most responsible for their livelihood.
They should not be a minus at power forward and center every night as they are, according to 82games.com. They should not be a fringe playoff team threatening to enter the lottery. Not with him, a superstar big man, headlining their roster.
So yes, relative to his contract and the expectations it carries, Bosh is underachieving. And should he fail to improve as the regular season winds down, the Heat will be left coping with a far greater problem: knowing they're paying Bosh to be someone he's not for another four years.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Jan. 20, 2015 unless otherwise cited.
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Luol Deng - F - Heat
Luol Deng (calf) will not play in Sunday's game against the Celtics.
This will be his third straight game on the sidelines, and coach Erik Spoelstra said that while Deng is getting better, he won't be allowed to play until he is 100 percent. Danny Granger and James Ennis will see some increased run with this news.
OK, you can make the case the Heat really miscalculated this past offseason. To me, they underestimated the beating Bosh and Wade have taken the past 4 years (we've seen signs of that ourselves with Lebron).
In addition, we saw how "banged up" Deng was last year for us. The guy has played incredible minutes for the Bulls for a lot of years now. He often was near the top of the league in minutes played.
Don't look now Miami but the lottery is staring you in the face.
Luol Deng (calf) will not play in Sunday's game against the Celtics.
This will be his third straight game on the sidelines, and coach Erik Spoelstra said that while Deng is getting better, he won't be allowed to play until he is 100 percent. Danny Granger and James Ennis will see some increased run with this news.
OK, you can make the case the Heat really miscalculated this past offseason. To me, they underestimated the beating Bosh and Wade have taken the past 4 years (we've seen signs of that ourselves with Lebron).
In addition, we saw how "banged up" Deng was last year for us. The guy has played incredible minutes for the Bulls for a lot of years now. He often was near the top of the league in minutes played.
Don't look now Miami but the lottery is staring you in the face.
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Most Miami fans are probably hoping they end up in the lottery so they can keep their pick this year. Although I can't remember if it's lottery protected or top 10 protected. Whatever it is, I hope they end up finishing in the worst position possible while still having to give up the pick to the 76ers.
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We all still have a little Pistol Pete in us: Ron Higgins
By Ron Higgins, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
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on January 31, 2015 at 9:54 PM, updated February 01, 2015 at 10:15 AM
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People find different ways to clear their heads.
You can take a walk around the block. Or stick headphones in your ears and get lost in the music. Or just meditate in an extremely quiet spot.
Me?
I shoot free throws and then work my way outside past the 3-point line.
Once my shot gets in rhythm, the aching knees and back of a 58-year-old disappears. And then it happens just as it has happened ever since I first saw Pete Maravich play basketball in November 1966.
There are a few between-the-legs dribbles followed by a stop-and-pop off-balance high arching jumper that touches nothing but the bottom of the net.
My inner "Pistol Pete" has awakened.
Saturday marked the 45th anniversary of late LSU guard Maravich passing Oscar Robertson as college basketball's all-time leading scorer in a Jan. 31, 1970 game vs. Ole Miss at the old John M. Parker Agriculture Center.
I was there that night, a chubby 13½-year old watching a hoops Picasso once again paint a creative playing picture that has never been seen since.
You might get a chuckle imagining this old sports columnist turning back the hands of time every time he ends a workout at the Y with a mind-emptying half-hour shooting session.
Don't laugh. There are a lot of guys my age who always carry the "Pistol Pete" gene.
We might be jogging past a park when a ball from a nearby pickup game rolls to us. And when we return the ball, we always fire a behind-the-back pass.
If we are in a store where there's a sporting goods department, we'll grab a ball and spin it on a finger. And if there is a goal in place, we'll spin the ball on a finger, toss it in the air and try to bounce it off our head in the basket.
When we put on athletic socks, we'll stretch and even rip out the elastic to make it droop around our ankles like the Pistol's lucky socks he wore at LSU.
If we are by ourselves in a gym, we'll suddenly bust out on a fastbreak and whip a between-the-legs pass to an imaginary teammate running the outside lanes.
We could be cleaning out our closets and we'll find an old basketball. Suddenly on our hardwood living room floor, we're doing drills straight from the Pistol's original "Homework Basketball" film that was shot as a clinic with the late Joe Dean Sr.
Our wives asks us why we're throwing the ball violently on the ground between our legs and catching it off the hard bounce behind our backs.
"It's the Pistol's Ricochet drill," we explain. "It improves your hand reaction. If I throw it incorrectly, it's going to take a bad bounce that I'll have to trap between my knees. And if I don't trap it, please have an icebag ready."
For any basketball crazed kid who happened to be around when the Pistol rocked our worlds from that first 1966 freshman game when he had 50 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists in a 49-point win over Southeastern's frosh, there's no way to measure the profound impact he had on and off-the-court.
In a state that had previously been nothing but in love with football, he splashed cold water on the sleeping athletic sensibilities of kids who preferred to play just basketball.
He showed us a completely new and fun way to play the game.
Many of us never threw a blind pass - heck, we didn't know what a blind pass was - until we saw the Pistol do it over and over. We all went running to gym to practice using our peripheral vision and repeatedly throwing passes at certain spots on walls.
None of us had ever tried a flatfooted running floating layup until we saw the Pistol abuse taller defenders who had been taught to block a shot by reacting to a shooter jumping on a drive.
So what if the shooter didn't jump while shooting a floater? We all start perfecting that shot also.
Granted, while we broke out all the Pistol's passes and moves in pickup games, we hardly ever trotted one out in actual organized competition.
Coaches in those days weren't keen on creativity.
If you tried something more creative than a two-handed chest pass - even if it worked - you'd find yourself quickly on the bench with your coach in your face screaming, "You think you're some kind of Maravich or something?"
The proper response was "No sir." But in your mind you were thinking, "Well, hell yeah!"
For all of us who will always believe the Pistol is the greatest player we've ever seen, there wasn't a bigger night than when he became and remains the greatest scorer in college basketball history.
Nobody described the scene better than retired Times Picayune/States-Item columnist Peter Finney who wrote, "Sitting and standing, they were jammed into LSU's Cajun Cow Palace, all 11,000 of 'em, with a feeling of membership in an exclusive club, a feeling shared by folks who watched Roger Maris hit his 61st home run, Bobby Jones hole out for the 1930 Grand Slam and Roger Bannister break the four-minute barrier in the mile."
Bud Johnson, LSU's sports information director at the time, remembers having no empty seats on press row for the first time ever.
"We had a lot of national press there that we never had," said Johnson, who now oversees the Andonie Sports Museum on the LSU campus. "One of Pete's goals was to get to New York City to play in the NIT in Madison Square Garden, the mecca of basketball.
"So while Oscar Robertson's record was important to everyone that night, Pete wanted to make a good impression in the national press, particularly the East Coast writers, who had never seen him play. He felt it would get LSU to the NIT."
The scene that still stands out when Maravich's record-breaking shot and subsequent on-court celebration are shown is WAFB-TV sportscaster Bob "The Old Beachcomber" Scearce trying to conduct an on-court interview.
"There were still more than five minutes left to play, but I don't think Bob realized or cared about it," Johnson said. "He wanted his interview."
Pete's best postgame quote was his answer to a question about how he missed five straight shots before he broke the record.
"Maybe I was worried subconsciously about the record," he said, "but I also knew I had 13 games to do it. My dad (LSU coach Press Maravich) said it would be fun to average just three points and 20 assists the rest of the way to keep people in suspense."
That night would have been enough to last any Pistol fan a lifetime.
But 23 years later in July 1983 on assignment for the Shreveport Journal, I got to spend a day with Pete at the International Special Olympics being hosted by LSU.
He'd been through the peaks and valleys in life as we all do, but had come out the other side as a devout Christian, a good man who had found peace.
The entire day, I had alternating moments of being a 26-year-old journalist and that tubby teenager who went speechless anytime the Pistol passed him running off the court at the Cow Palace.
The one thing I regret is I never told him that day and before he died in 1988 how much he meant to me in my childhood, especially at a time just after my father died.
Pete gave me something to love, something to aspire to, some inspiration and direction, when I really needed it.
So Pistol, on the anniversary of your biggest shot, many many thanks.
My next fallaway 21-footer is dedicated to you.
TFIR
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Josh Smith finally finds the perfect fit with the Houston Rockets
By Adrian Wojnarowski January 31, 2015 9:47 AM Yahoo Sports
By Adrian Wojnarowski January 31, 2015 9:47 AM Yahoo Sports
- BOSTON – In the hours after a loss to the Brooklyn Nets, Stan Van Gundy sent Josh Smith a text message: "You haven't done anything wrong, but need you to stop by my office in the morning."
Van Gundy awaited him in the Detroit Pistons' practice facility and soon Smith began to listen to the franchise's president and coach lay out the franchise's predicament with him, the reasons it would've been unfair to bench Smith and limit his minutes, the reasons Van Gundy believed he owed Smith better for how professional he had been in their time together.
For a moment, Smith would wonder: "Where's this going?" and soon the words tumbled out of Van Gundy's mouth: "We're going to waive you, Josh."
With three years and $27 million left on his contract, Smith confesses now: "I was shocked." He knew Detroit had discussed trades, knew that that frontline of Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond was unworkable, but Josh Smith never expected to shake Van Gundy's hand and leave the gymnasium a free agent that morning.
His family was incensed and Josh understood it. His family has forever taken the criticism harder than him. Better than everyone else, they know him. They watch and listen to everything about him, the way loved ones do, and his father, Pete, warned Josh: "You're going to get scrutinized … It's going to make you look bad," and with the world barking louder and louder, trashing his character and dismissing his considerable talent, Josh Smith told his father simply: "I don’t care.
- In every way, the Pistons' act was liberating. Josh Smith had true free agency now, an ability to choose a team based on fit and comfort and winning, not on salary cap space. He let it go, let it all go. For everyone trying to turn Smith into a punchline, he understood the truth: Contenders would want him, and Smith could play a part for a winner again. It's happening for the Houston Rockets now, Smith fitting so perfectly with his quirky co-stars and coach who's commanded his respect and cooperation.
Smith returns to play the Pistons in Auburn Hills tonight, and he's playing his best basketball in years. The Rockets haven't imploded with Smith. They've thrived with him. The idea of a contract extension this summer appeals to him, because the roster is talented and deep, his role's increasingly defined and most of all: "I'm comfortable here," Smith told Yahoo Sports.
They've accepted everything about Josh Smith, and that means everything to him. He's been a rim protector and a rebounder, a defender and driver. Give us your three-pointers, the Rockets told him. He's making them, too. Now, everything's quieter. The Rockets, and the winning, give him a platform for people to talk about everything he does so well, not his flaws.
People came for Smith in ways that confounded him, the ferocity and vitriol for so-called crimes on basketball that felt like the force of something else, something worse. "You know, I'm not a guy walking around with DUIs on my record, or bar fights," Smith told Yahoo Sports. "I think they expect that out of me. I mean, I understand criticism comes with this, but … I feel sometimes like I did something harmful to somebody’s kid.
"I have thick skin. But when analysts talk, including NBA analysts who played the game, they act like they didn't have any flaws in their game. They played perfect, and no one criticized their game."
Smith is no victim, but there have been few players so harshly judged in recent NBA seasons. For the extensive work Smith had done with "My Sister's House," domestic abuse shelter, and elsewhere in the Atlanta community, the NBA chose Smith as a finalist for its Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award. He's never made much of a deal about his charity work, because he always figured that's what he was supposed to do.
For now, Josh Smith is sitting in the lobby of the Ritz-Carlton in Boston, with his iPad and a box of Peanut Butter Patties that Boston Girl Scout Troop 79258 sold him after practice in Emerson College's student center. He's planning a typical off night on the road: Alone in the movie theatre.
He's never cared much about selling an image, never played into the modern branding game. Perhaps people don't see it, but Smith apologizes for nothing when he declares himself "Old school" for his distaste of the self-serving and self-promoting nature of social media. He has no interest in filling your timeline with news that he's "back on the grind," or shoutouts to half-assed celebrities and jocks with whom he’s supposed to pretend to be friends.
“I don't agree with the world knowing my every move, my every step," Smith said. "I don't need to broadcast it. I grew up in poverty. My parents really had to work hard to put food on the table for my sisters and brothers. I don't see the need to take pictures of me on vacation, or with a new car. Kudos to the people who do it, I guess, but there are so many people who are struggling. It's a slap in the face to them.
"I was the first one to work out with Hakeem Olajuwon. But no one would ever know that, because I didn't post a video of him and me working out. I didn't show people how I was working out with Calvin Murphy in Houston early in my career. There was no need for it."
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Eventually, Smith found his way onto the Rockets, too. As a free agent, his preference was to go there in the summer of 2013. General manager Daryl Morey met with Smith and his agents, Brian Dyke and Wallace Prather, in July and tried to mine avenues to sign-and-trades deals, but never did find traction. Detroit had significant salary cap space and made the market's biggest offer. There was no close second to the four years, $54 million offered to him, and Smith signed the deal with the Pistons.
General manager Joe Dumars gambled on Smith's considerable talent, and underestimated the concern most NBA executives and coaches had: How could a frontline of Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Smith play together? In the end, the decayed Pistons culture and a flawed structure ate away on Smith a year ago, cutting into his efficiency and hurtling him into some old bad habits of too often shooting the ball deep on the perimeter.
For the first time, Smith had truly left Atlanta, left home. Before choosing to declare for the NBA draft in 2004, Smith had committed to the University of Indiana. He had gotten a sense of the world beyond his hometown with that high school year at Oak Hill Academy in Virginia – and wanted more of it. When everyone else was celebrating the hometown Hawks selecting him out of Oak Hill with the 17th pick, there remained a twinge of disappointment for those next nine seasons. He wanted to get away and live a life beyond his beloved hometown.
"I really didn't want to go home, but that was the hand I was dealt and I made the best out of it," Smith said. "If anybody knows me, I'm an Atlantan. I love the Falcons, I'm a Braves fan, the Georgia Bulldogs. That's my town, that's my city. But when you're young, you're a little like a kid wanting to go away to college. I was going to IU. Even if I did stay in school, I wanted to go to another state, another culture. Last year, in Detroit, was really my first really leaving Atlanta for a long period."
Now, Smith returns to Auburn Hills tonight and it comes with no sentimentality, no real emotion, he says. "I don't have many memories there, much time – not like it was with Atlanta," he says. Everyone wants to pin that Pistons' surge in the aftermath of his release on the addition of subtraction, but here's the thing: Stan Van Gundy never bought it. Never mind Smith – Van Gundy never believed that cutting Smith loose sent the Pistons on that seven-game winning streak. In his mind, they were ready to start winning – and he had been telling those Pistons that every day.
"His thing always: We were a great practice team, and it's going to convert over," Smith said. "We're going to win games. It's going to happen, just stick with the process. That's what he would always say to us."
Whatever the reason, Josh Smith is something of a tourist on the way through Auburn Hills tonight. He will listen to the boos, and play his game, and move on with the Rockets. They're on the way to something this season, and Josh Smith feels a part of it now. Between management's commitment to winning, the hunger of Dwight Howard and James Harden to prove themselves as championship contenders, this is a franchise with a chip on its shoulder, with something to prove. Smith fits here. Finally, he fits perfectly.
"I feel like the emotions and fire is back for me," he said. "I had a lot of fun in Atlanta. We were winning and successful for a majority of years that I was there. Then I fell into a dark hole, because when you're a player in this league, and you see the journey and road it takes to have success, become part of a pretty good team, and then you go back down … Well, you appreciate this more."
When Josh Smith walked out of the Pistons' practice facility for the final time on Dec. 22, he could hear the angst of his father, his family. Oh man, Josh was going to get it again, and they loathed it for him. As everyone was winding up to take their shots again, he assured them all: "This is a blessing." And so far, he's been right. Josh Smith has made himself matter in the NBA again, made himself fulfilled, but just don't expect to see him in your timelines telling you all about it, running back all the scorn in real time. He's playing winning ball again, having a blast, and will do with all the praise what he had done with all the criticism: Let it go, let it all go, and live.
TFIR
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NBA home court losing its value
FAQs explain what diminishing advantage of home court affects most
Updated: January 28, 2015, 4:49 PM ET
By Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi | ESPN Insider
Stumped by the disappearing home-court advantage in the NBA?
So were we. We proposed some theories in this space here, but we decided to get our hands dirty and dig into the data.
Here's what we found. Let's tackle this FAQ style.
OK, so how much has home court really mattered?
Simply put: a lot. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the following chart speaks volumes:
Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi
As you can see, the home-court edge has more or less been in straight decline over the past few decades, but it typically hovers just above 60 percent. However, this recent two-year drop has been enormous. So far this season, teams are winning just 53.7 percent of the time. That's down from 58 percent last season and 61.2 percent the season before that. Since 1975, the advantage has been an average of 61.2 percent. The peak? In 1988-89 it stood at 67.9 percent.
You might have heard that home-court advantage is worth at least 3.5 points per 100 possessions in the NBA. And that was true for a long time. But not this season (or last). This season, home-court advantage has stood at plus-2.2. Last season, it was plus-2.6. The season before that: plus-3.2. If we adjust for pace, the two-year decline is 36.7 percent, or more than one-third. In just two seasons. We've never seen such a dramatic two-year decline.
Is the decline in home-court advantage statistically significant?
It is. The large observed drop in home-court advantage since the start of the 2013-14 season is something that we would only expect to observe by random chance less than 1 in 1,000 times.
In other words, it's statistically significant. (For those interested in some gory details: We can calculate the odds of seeing a sample mean of any given value -- in this case, the mean home-court advantage over the sample of 1,897 games since the start of last season -- because the distribution of all possible sampled means is approximately normal with a standard deviation inversely proportional to the square root of the number of games in the sample. In a database of thousands of games dating back to 1996, we observed a per-game standard deviation in home-court advantage of 14.1, which yields a standard deviation of sample means equal to 14.1/(1897^0.5), which works out to a standard deviation of 0.324 points/100 possessions. So, the recent drop in home-court edge -- more than 1.0 point per 100 possessions -- is a shift of more than three standard deviations in magnitude, which is an event that occurs by random chance less than 1 in 1,000 times.)
Using a similar methodology, we also found statistically significant declines in the home-court edge in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding and free throw rate since the start of the 2013-14 season.
How many teams are worse at home?
One-third of the league. No joke.
No Home Court Ad full season
Season NoHCA
1996-97 2
1997-98 0
1998-99 0
1999-00 0
2000-01 0
2001-02 2
2004-05 3
2005-06 1
2006-07 2
2007-08 1
2008-09 1
2009-10 2
2010-11 1
2011-12 2
2012-13 0
2013-14 1
2014-15 10
Right now, 10 teams have fared no better at home than on the road. That's a mind-boggling number. To wit, only one team -- the Washington Wizards -- finished last season with a worse or equal record at home compared to the road. Just one.
And get this: In the previous eight seasons, there were only 10 teams combined that saw this reversal effect. Again, we have 10 this season. Brooklyn, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Orlando and Philadelphia have not posted a better home record than on the road. If you pull up the standings in 1997-98, there were no such teams. Same in 1998-99. Same in 1999-00. Same in 2000-01. Four straight seasons, not one team. And now we have 10.
See the chart to the right that outlines the number of teams that had no HCA for a full season.
You might be asking yourself, "Well, why don't we compare apples to oranges and just look at this point in time each season? Same effect?" Great question. We looked that up, too. Through each team's first 50 games (about where we are now) since 1997, we have never seen five teams fail to do better at home than on the road at this juncture. Again, there are 10 teams now.
The chart below shows the number of teams with no HCA at the 50-game mark.
No HCA 50-game mark
Season NoHCA
1996-97 2
1997-98 1
2000-01 4
2001-02 3
2002-03 1
2003-04 1
2004-05 1
2005-06 3
2006-07 3
2007-08 4
2008-09 4
2009-10 2
2011-12 2
2012-13 1
2013-14 3
2014-15 10
So even if we just look at this point in the season historically, this season is screaming anomaly.
Is there anything unique about these 10 teams?
Hard to find anything. Geographically, maybe? Looking at the list, most of the teams are in the middle of the country. No West Coast teams. But that's a stretch. There are good teams: Houston, Dallas and Chicago. And there are bad ones: Minnesota, Orlando and Philadelphia. They come in all shapes and sizes.
Does the league's 3-point frenzy have something to do with it?
Here's where it gets interesting. You may have noticed that 3-pointers are on the rise. But what you may not know is that for the first time in NBA history, we will see more 3-point attempts than free throw attempts this month. It's all happening right now. Don't believe me? Check out the chart below.
Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi
Here we have a situation where teams are trying to win by way of the 3-pointer rather than attacking the rim and trying to get to the line. The NBA is a much more open game now than it was in the 1990s. And that style of play has ripple effects. You're not drawing as many fouls if you're chucking from the perimeter. With more outside jump shooting, the two teams are deciding the game with their play rather than subjecting themselves to the quirks of the third party: referees.
With all the perimeter shooting, it stands to reason that referees could have less influence on the game. And studies have shown from other sports like soccer and baseball that referee bias (the subconscious desire to please the crowd) isn't just a sore loser's concoction. If an increase in 3-pointers removes referees from the equation somewhat, maybe home-court advantage goes by the wayside.
Another ripple effect of 3-point shooting: more variance in close games. If an underdog (traditionally, the visiting team) is trying to win, it behooves it to try riskier strategies. Three-pointers may not splash through the net as often as a 2-point attempt or a free throw attempt, but that risk comes with the higher reward.
OK, what about winning time, the clutch?
Ah, yes, the clutch stuff. For as long as the NBA has tracked in-game trends, the home team has enjoyed a nice cushion in clutch situations. What do we mean by clutch situations? We'll go with the NBA.com definition: game within five points in the final five minutes of the contest. Here is where the home-court advantage comes up big. That is, until now.
Entering this season, the home team has won 54.8 percent of its games in clutch situations since the league began tracking this data back in 1996-97. And this makes sense. All else equal, it should be a random coin flip. But everything's not equal. The home crowd gets louder. Opposing teams might buckle under the pressure with the game on the line. Road legs might get weary. From 1996-97 to 2013-14, we didn't see a single season where home-court win percentage finished below 51.6 percent.
This season? The home team has won just 47.7 percent of the time. That's right. The home-court advantage has evaporated and flipped the other direction. Visiting teams have pulled out more close wins than home teams this season.
Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi
Whoa. And this isn't a small sample size. We're talking more than 350 games this season where we've seen clutch situations and the visiting team has won just 183 of them. What about when the game gets tighter, you ask? Let's look at "superclutch" situations where the game is within three points in the final three minutes. Yep. Same story. Visiting teams buck the trend and win more often than the home team. The home-court team has fallen below .500 for the first time on record: 48 percent in superclutch. In "superduper clutch" (terrible name, we know) where it's a one-possession game in the final minute, the home team has won just 48.5 percent. Again, consistently the home team has had the historical advantage here with the game on the line. Not this season.
What about the "tanking" teams in the clutch?
This came up in the research. You know who the worst home teams are in the clutch? The usual suspects: The Knicks (3-9; .250), Lakers (3-11; .214), 76ers (2-8; .200) and Timberwolves (2-10; .143) rank last in win percentage on their home floor in clutch situations. Collectively, they're 10-38 (.208) in clutch situations this season on their home floor. If you remove them, the home-court win percentage jumps to .521. But if you removed the worst four teams in the NBA every season, the win percentage would skyrocket, too. Nothing weird there. Just a contributing factor to the home-court reversal in tight games.
OK, well what about this time last season and the seasons before that?
You might have thought this is just a midseason blip, that it's too early to say anything definitive. But what we're seeing now is not typical at the 50-game mark. Even just looking at in-season trends, the home-court advantage we're seeing now is still abnormally small. As you can see in the chart below, the cumulative home-court advantage through a team's first 50 games has not been lower than it has the past two seasons. All the gray seasons are historical ones dating back to 1997 with the exception of 2013-14 and this season, which stand out. Before that? Nothing close to what we're seeing these days.
Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi
You can tell by the black line that the overall average doesn't take on a U-shape as the season progresses. However, it did last season. Maybe the line moves back toward the black line, but it's doubtful it surges all the way to the historical norm. We're in too deep.
Did home-court advantage bounce back last postseason?
Interestingly enough, it did not. Home-court advantage all but disappeared in the playoffs, too; the effect wasn't quarantined in the regular season. The home team went 50-39, winning 56.2 percent of playoff games in 2014. That seems like a healthy edge, but not when we zoom out and find that the home team has enjoyed a 65.1 percent cushion since 1997.
Look in the data and you'll find that home-court advantage typically strengthens in the playoffs. But last postseason, home-court advantage actually shrank. In the 2008 playoffs, the win percentage of home squads stood at 74.4 percent. Once we adjust for pace, the 2008 home team enjoyed a 9.3-point edge on average in the playoffs. Last season, that edge fell to just three points. Yes, sliced down by two-thirds. Crazy, right?
Has Vegas caught on?
Not really. Home teams have underperformed the Vegas lines all season. According to covers.com, the away team is 362-300-16 (54.7 percent) against the spread. If Vegas was 100 percent accurate, it would be a flat 50 percent, but they're still underrating the road team.
The effect gets stronger when you look at not just road teams, but good road teams. If you've picked the away favorite against the spread, you have won 56.7 percent of your bets. Monster edge.
The effect gets stronger when you look at not just road teams, but good road teams. If you've picked the away favorite against the spread, you have won 56.7 percent of your bets (where 52.3 percent is the standard break-even rate of success). Monster edge.
What if bad teams have played a ton of home games? Wouldn't that explain it?
Well, it hasn't been the case. It's the opposite, actually. The Clippers have endured the most home-heavy schedule in the league, playing 27 of their 45 games at home. And they're a great team.
The two juggernauts -- Golden State and Atlanta -- have both played more home games than away. Actually, using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), there is a positive correlation between good teams and games played at home thus far. So, that doesn't explain what's going on. If anything, the home teams have a worse record this season, despite a bunch of good teams playing home-heavy schedules.
Are home teams getting called differently this season?
We're just scratching the surface of the play-by-play data right now, but some interesting trends have popped up. I asked Daren Willman, the guru behind the indispensable NBAsavant.com play-by-play database, to send over some data on referee foul calls dating back to 2010-11.
I examined shooting fouls in particular. This season, the away team is called for 3.5 percent more shooting fouls than home teams, which is down from 4.9 percent in 2013-14 and 5.4 percent in 2012-13. The gap is apparently shrinking. Shooting fouls are being called more evenly now than in recent seasons.
However, personal (non-shooting) fouls have not followed the same trend. In fact, it seems to be going in the opposite direction. In 2012-13, the home team was called for the same number of personal fouls on a per-game basis. But last season, the visiting team was called for 0.5 percent more personal fouls than the home team. This season? It's jumped to 3.8 percent. When we look at personal fouls, the home team seems to receive more calls, if slightly. In other words, the home-court advantage appears to be alive and well when we're not looking at shooting fouls.
Another interesting development: Home teams aren't seeing a big advantage in blocks per game anymore. In 2010-11, home teams registered 0.81 more blocks per game than the visiting team. This season, the difference between home and away blocks is just 0.43 swats. So while the home/away gap is shrinking in shooting fouls, the same appears to be true of the home/away block disparity.
Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi
Evidently, the gap of shooting fouls called is almost even now between home and away. This raises an interesting question: Are 50/50 calls, where it's a borderline block or foul, going toward the visiting team more?
Picture James Harden barreling into DeMarcus Cousins for a driving layup in Sacramento. Lots of contact, but Cousins appears to get the block. The data here suggest that those toss-up calls might be going to the visiting team (in this hypothetical, Houston) more than the home team (Sacramento). But it's hard to say. The margins are just so small at this point. But it's worth digging deeper for another time.
So is this home-court disadvantage a good thing?
Depends where you stand on the issue of predictability. Traditionally, fans of the home team could go to the game expecting to see a victory. Roughly 60 percent of the time, historically, the home team wins. However, that edge is eroding quickly. Take a look at Tuesday night's games: Six fan bases left the arena without a victory. Six games, six home losses. Is that good for the league?
If you ask Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, who has watched his team struggle at home, it's a good thing. From his perspective, the less predictability, the better. Fans like to be surprised. That's why we watch: The drama keeps us coming back. If the home-court advantage made games more predictable, that might mean it's less exciting.
FAQs explain what diminishing advantage of home court affects most
Updated: January 28, 2015, 4:49 PM ET
By Tom Haberstroh and Steve Ilardi | ESPN Insider
Stumped by the disappearing home-court advantage in the NBA?
So were we. We proposed some theories in this space here, but we decided to get our hands dirty and dig into the data.
Here's what we found. Let's tackle this FAQ style.
OK, so how much has home court really mattered?
Simply put: a lot. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the following chart speaks volumes:
As you can see, the home-court edge has more or less been in straight decline over the past few decades, but it typically hovers just above 60 percent. However, this recent two-year drop has been enormous. So far this season, teams are winning just 53.7 percent of the time. That's down from 58 percent last season and 61.2 percent the season before that. Since 1975, the advantage has been an average of 61.2 percent. The peak? In 1988-89 it stood at 67.9 percent.
You might have heard that home-court advantage is worth at least 3.5 points per 100 possessions in the NBA. And that was true for a long time. But not this season (or last). This season, home-court advantage has stood at plus-2.2. Last season, it was plus-2.6. The season before that: plus-3.2. If we adjust for pace, the two-year decline is 36.7 percent, or more than one-third. In just two seasons. We've never seen such a dramatic two-year decline.
Is the decline in home-court advantage statistically significant?
It is. The large observed drop in home-court advantage since the start of the 2013-14 season is something that we would only expect to observe by random chance less than 1 in 1,000 times.
In other words, it's statistically significant. (For those interested in some gory details: We can calculate the odds of seeing a sample mean of any given value -- in this case, the mean home-court advantage over the sample of 1,897 games since the start of last season -- because the distribution of all possible sampled means is approximately normal with a standard deviation inversely proportional to the square root of the number of games in the sample. In a database of thousands of games dating back to 1996, we observed a per-game standard deviation in home-court advantage of 14.1, which yields a standard deviation of sample means equal to 14.1/(1897^0.5), which works out to a standard deviation of 0.324 points/100 possessions. So, the recent drop in home-court edge -- more than 1.0 point per 100 possessions -- is a shift of more than three standard deviations in magnitude, which is an event that occurs by random chance less than 1 in 1,000 times.)
Using a similar methodology, we also found statistically significant declines in the home-court edge in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding and free throw rate since the start of the 2013-14 season.
How many teams are worse at home?
One-third of the league. No joke.
No Home Court Ad full season
Season NoHCA
1996-97 2
1997-98 0
1998-99 0
1999-00 0
2000-01 0
2001-02 2
2004-05 3
2005-06 1
2006-07 2
2007-08 1
2008-09 1
2009-10 2
2010-11 1
2011-12 2
2012-13 0
2013-14 1
2014-15 10
Right now, 10 teams have fared no better at home than on the road. That's a mind-boggling number. To wit, only one team -- the Washington Wizards -- finished last season with a worse or equal record at home compared to the road. Just one.
And get this: In the previous eight seasons, there were only 10 teams combined that saw this reversal effect. Again, we have 10 this season. Brooklyn, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Orlando and Philadelphia have not posted a better home record than on the road. If you pull up the standings in 1997-98, there were no such teams. Same in 1998-99. Same in 1999-00. Same in 2000-01. Four straight seasons, not one team. And now we have 10.
See the chart to the right that outlines the number of teams that had no HCA for a full season.
You might be asking yourself, "Well, why don't we compare apples to oranges and just look at this point in time each season? Same effect?" Great question. We looked that up, too. Through each team's first 50 games (about where we are now) since 1997, we have never seen five teams fail to do better at home than on the road at this juncture. Again, there are 10 teams now.
The chart below shows the number of teams with no HCA at the 50-game mark.
No HCA 50-game mark
Season NoHCA
1996-97 2
1997-98 1
2000-01 4
2001-02 3
2002-03 1
2003-04 1
2004-05 1
2005-06 3
2006-07 3
2007-08 4
2008-09 4
2009-10 2
2011-12 2
2012-13 1
2013-14 3
2014-15 10
So even if we just look at this point in the season historically, this season is screaming anomaly.
Is there anything unique about these 10 teams?
Hard to find anything. Geographically, maybe? Looking at the list, most of the teams are in the middle of the country. No West Coast teams. But that's a stretch. There are good teams: Houston, Dallas and Chicago. And there are bad ones: Minnesota, Orlando and Philadelphia. They come in all shapes and sizes.
Does the league's 3-point frenzy have something to do with it?
Here's where it gets interesting. You may have noticed that 3-pointers are on the rise. But what you may not know is that for the first time in NBA history, we will see more 3-point attempts than free throw attempts this month. It's all happening right now. Don't believe me? Check out the chart below.
Here we have a situation where teams are trying to win by way of the 3-pointer rather than attacking the rim and trying to get to the line. The NBA is a much more open game now than it was in the 1990s. And that style of play has ripple effects. You're not drawing as many fouls if you're chucking from the perimeter. With more outside jump shooting, the two teams are deciding the game with their play rather than subjecting themselves to the quirks of the third party: referees.
With all the perimeter shooting, it stands to reason that referees could have less influence on the game. And studies have shown from other sports like soccer and baseball that referee bias (the subconscious desire to please the crowd) isn't just a sore loser's concoction. If an increase in 3-pointers removes referees from the equation somewhat, maybe home-court advantage goes by the wayside.
Another ripple effect of 3-point shooting: more variance in close games. If an underdog (traditionally, the visiting team) is trying to win, it behooves it to try riskier strategies. Three-pointers may not splash through the net as often as a 2-point attempt or a free throw attempt, but that risk comes with the higher reward.
OK, what about winning time, the clutch?
Ah, yes, the clutch stuff. For as long as the NBA has tracked in-game trends, the home team has enjoyed a nice cushion in clutch situations. What do we mean by clutch situations? We'll go with the NBA.com definition: game within five points in the final five minutes of the contest. Here is where the home-court advantage comes up big. That is, until now.
Entering this season, the home team has won 54.8 percent of its games in clutch situations since the league began tracking this data back in 1996-97. And this makes sense. All else equal, it should be a random coin flip. But everything's not equal. The home crowd gets louder. Opposing teams might buckle under the pressure with the game on the line. Road legs might get weary. From 1996-97 to 2013-14, we didn't see a single season where home-court win percentage finished below 51.6 percent.
This season? The home team has won just 47.7 percent of the time. That's right. The home-court advantage has evaporated and flipped the other direction. Visiting teams have pulled out more close wins than home teams this season.
Whoa. And this isn't a small sample size. We're talking more than 350 games this season where we've seen clutch situations and the visiting team has won just 183 of them. What about when the game gets tighter, you ask? Let's look at "superclutch" situations where the game is within three points in the final three minutes. Yep. Same story. Visiting teams buck the trend and win more often than the home team. The home-court team has fallen below .500 for the first time on record: 48 percent in superclutch. In "superduper clutch" (terrible name, we know) where it's a one-possession game in the final minute, the home team has won just 48.5 percent. Again, consistently the home team has had the historical advantage here with the game on the line. Not this season.
What about the "tanking" teams in the clutch?
This came up in the research. You know who the worst home teams are in the clutch? The usual suspects: The Knicks (3-9; .250), Lakers (3-11; .214), 76ers (2-8; .200) and Timberwolves (2-10; .143) rank last in win percentage on their home floor in clutch situations. Collectively, they're 10-38 (.208) in clutch situations this season on their home floor. If you remove them, the home-court win percentage jumps to .521. But if you removed the worst four teams in the NBA every season, the win percentage would skyrocket, too. Nothing weird there. Just a contributing factor to the home-court reversal in tight games.
OK, well what about this time last season and the seasons before that?
You might have thought this is just a midseason blip, that it's too early to say anything definitive. But what we're seeing now is not typical at the 50-game mark. Even just looking at in-season trends, the home-court advantage we're seeing now is still abnormally small. As you can see in the chart below, the cumulative home-court advantage through a team's first 50 games has not been lower than it has the past two seasons. All the gray seasons are historical ones dating back to 1997 with the exception of 2013-14 and this season, which stand out. Before that? Nothing close to what we're seeing these days.
You can tell by the black line that the overall average doesn't take on a U-shape as the season progresses. However, it did last season. Maybe the line moves back toward the black line, but it's doubtful it surges all the way to the historical norm. We're in too deep.
Did home-court advantage bounce back last postseason?
Interestingly enough, it did not. Home-court advantage all but disappeared in the playoffs, too; the effect wasn't quarantined in the regular season. The home team went 50-39, winning 56.2 percent of playoff games in 2014. That seems like a healthy edge, but not when we zoom out and find that the home team has enjoyed a 65.1 percent cushion since 1997.
Look in the data and you'll find that home-court advantage typically strengthens in the playoffs. But last postseason, home-court advantage actually shrank. In the 2008 playoffs, the win percentage of home squads stood at 74.4 percent. Once we adjust for pace, the 2008 home team enjoyed a 9.3-point edge on average in the playoffs. Last season, that edge fell to just three points. Yes, sliced down by two-thirds. Crazy, right?
Has Vegas caught on?
Not really. Home teams have underperformed the Vegas lines all season. According to covers.com, the away team is 362-300-16 (54.7 percent) against the spread. If Vegas was 100 percent accurate, it would be a flat 50 percent, but they're still underrating the road team.
The effect gets stronger when you look at not just road teams, but good road teams. If you've picked the away favorite against the spread, you have won 56.7 percent of your bets. Monster edge.
The effect gets stronger when you look at not just road teams, but good road teams. If you've picked the away favorite against the spread, you have won 56.7 percent of your bets (where 52.3 percent is the standard break-even rate of success). Monster edge.
What if bad teams have played a ton of home games? Wouldn't that explain it?
Well, it hasn't been the case. It's the opposite, actually. The Clippers have endured the most home-heavy schedule in the league, playing 27 of their 45 games at home. And they're a great team.
The two juggernauts -- Golden State and Atlanta -- have both played more home games than away. Actually, using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), there is a positive correlation between good teams and games played at home thus far. So, that doesn't explain what's going on. If anything, the home teams have a worse record this season, despite a bunch of good teams playing home-heavy schedules.
Are home teams getting called differently this season?
We're just scratching the surface of the play-by-play data right now, but some interesting trends have popped up. I asked Daren Willman, the guru behind the indispensable NBAsavant.com play-by-play database, to send over some data on referee foul calls dating back to 2010-11.
I examined shooting fouls in particular. This season, the away team is called for 3.5 percent more shooting fouls than home teams, which is down from 4.9 percent in 2013-14 and 5.4 percent in 2012-13. The gap is apparently shrinking. Shooting fouls are being called more evenly now than in recent seasons.
However, personal (non-shooting) fouls have not followed the same trend. In fact, it seems to be going in the opposite direction. In 2012-13, the home team was called for the same number of personal fouls on a per-game basis. But last season, the visiting team was called for 0.5 percent more personal fouls than the home team. This season? It's jumped to 3.8 percent. When we look at personal fouls, the home team seems to receive more calls, if slightly. In other words, the home-court advantage appears to be alive and well when we're not looking at shooting fouls.
Another interesting development: Home teams aren't seeing a big advantage in blocks per game anymore. In 2010-11, home teams registered 0.81 more blocks per game than the visiting team. This season, the difference between home and away blocks is just 0.43 swats. So while the home/away gap is shrinking in shooting fouls, the same appears to be true of the home/away block disparity.
Evidently, the gap of shooting fouls called is almost even now between home and away. This raises an interesting question: Are 50/50 calls, where it's a borderline block or foul, going toward the visiting team more?
Picture James Harden barreling into DeMarcus Cousins for a driving layup in Sacramento. Lots of contact, but Cousins appears to get the block. The data here suggest that those toss-up calls might be going to the visiting team (in this hypothetical, Houston) more than the home team (Sacramento). But it's hard to say. The margins are just so small at this point. But it's worth digging deeper for another time.
So is this home-court disadvantage a good thing?
Depends where you stand on the issue of predictability. Traditionally, fans of the home team could go to the game expecting to see a victory. Roughly 60 percent of the time, historically, the home team wins. However, that edge is eroding quickly. Take a look at Tuesday night's games: Six fan bases left the arena without a victory. Six games, six home losses. Is that good for the league?
If you ask Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, who has watched his team struggle at home, it's a good thing. From his perspective, the less predictability, the better. Fans like to be surprised. That's why we watch: The drama keeps us coming back. If the home-court advantage made games more predictable, that might mean it's less exciting.
Roughly 60 percent of the time, historically, the home team wins. However, that edge is eroding quickly. Take a look at Tuesday night's games: Six fan bases left the arena without a victory. Six games, six home losses. Is that good for the league?
But there's another school of thought here: Home fans like to feel like they matter. If the home crowd no longer feels like the proverbial sixth man on the floor, will they keep showing up to the game? Why spend your time cheering and jeering if the results show that cheering and jeering aren't as rewarding as they used to be?
Well, because it's fun to see a professional basketball game live and it's still a rush to support your team. You cheer your favorite band at a concert not because it'll make them hit that note a little crisper, but because you're a fan and you want to let them know.
If home-court advantage means little, why fight like mad for seeding throughout an 82-game season?
If you think teams rest their guys leading up to the playoffs now, just wait until they don't think home-court matters. Because what's the point? It's true, the NBA is a business and teams want to get their hands on the gate revenue for that potential seventh game in a series.
But coaches might see it differently. If San Antonio knows that home court isn't worth much anymore, do the Spurs care whether they get in as the fourth seed or the eighth seed? The regular-season mentality might evolve into "just get to the playoffs" as opposed to "get the best seed possible." Is that good or bad for the product in the long run?
Ultimately, if the NBA is cracking down on unfair referee calls, that has to be seen as a good thing. But a move toward fairness might lead to some tricky unforeseen consequences.
We want you to join the conversation. What do you think explains what's going on? And would this be a good thing? We'd love to hear your thoughts. Use the hashtag #HomeCourtDisadvantage and hit us up at @ESPNInsider, @ESPNNBA or @tomhaberstroh on Twitter.
But there's another school of thought here: Home fans like to feel like they matter. If the home crowd no longer feels like the proverbial sixth man on the floor, will they keep showing up to the game? Why spend your time cheering and jeering if the results show that cheering and jeering aren't as rewarding as they used to be?
Well, because it's fun to see a professional basketball game live and it's still a rush to support your team. You cheer your favorite band at a concert not because it'll make them hit that note a little crisper, but because you're a fan and you want to let them know.
If home-court advantage means little, why fight like mad for seeding throughout an 82-game season?
If you think teams rest their guys leading up to the playoffs now, just wait until they don't think home-court matters. Because what's the point? It's true, the NBA is a business and teams want to get their hands on the gate revenue for that potential seventh game in a series.
But coaches might see it differently. If San Antonio knows that home court isn't worth much anymore, do the Spurs care whether they get in as the fourth seed or the eighth seed? The regular-season mentality might evolve into "just get to the playoffs" as opposed to "get the best seed possible." Is that good or bad for the product in the long run?
Ultimately, if the NBA is cracking down on unfair referee calls, that has to be seen as a good thing. But a move toward fairness might lead to some tricky unforeseen consequences.
We want you to join the conversation. What do you think explains what's going on? And would this be a good thing? We'd love to hear your thoughts. Use the hashtag #HomeCourtDisadvantage and hit us up at @ESPNInsider, @ESPNNBA or @tomhaberstroh on Twitter.
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NBA's most clutch players
Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis among best players down the stretch of games
Updated: January 28, 2015, 1:03 PM ET
By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider
Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty ImagesBoth Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard excel in the last five minutes of a tight game.
Last week, we took a look at how teams are performing in the clutch. We got a lesson in just how volatile this subset of data can be Tuesday, as runaway league clutch leader Golden State went down in overtime against the Chicago Bulls. The Warriors still rank as the best clutch team in the league by outscoring opponents by 36.8 points per 100 possessions. That's impressive, but last week they were at plus-63.2. Thus is the world of small sample sizes.
Today we're turning our attention to player performance in clutch situations. If the data is that unstable at the team level, you can imagine how it works at the player level. Measuring what players have done is no big trick -- the stats are straightforward once we've agreed to a definition of what constitutes a clutch situation. As we did with the teams, we're going with the most common definition: Any possession during the last five minutes of regulation (plus overtime, as with the Warriors and Bulls on Tuesday) when the score is within five points.
It's important to remember that because of limited sample sizes, among other things, the stats you'll read here might tell you what has occurred, but they don't necessary suggest what's going to happen. That's true of both teams and players, as the Warriors learned last night, but especially true of players. Teams at least can review end-of-game strategies and refocus their attack around certain players. While performance in clutch situations is an important part of the story of a given season, the volatility of the category means that I wouldn't feel comfortable folding the data into my projection system. Not yet, anyway.
All raw clutch data was downloaded from NBA.com/stats, and the core metrics in play are wins above replacement (WARP) and its per-possession counterpart, individual winning percentage.
Here's a look at the NBA's best in terms of late-game production and efficiency, as well as who steps up their game the most -- and who fades the most -- down the stretch.
Who's leading this season?
Looking at the league leaders in clutch WARP tells us which players have compiled the best combination of volume and efficiency in tight situations for the season. That's great, but the problem is the volume part of the equation. As mentioned last week, the total clutch minutes played from team to team can vary greatly. Even after their overtime adventure Tuesday, the Warriors have played just 42 clutch minutes this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies have played 134. Thus, the leaderboard is dominated by teams who have played a lot of close games. But we'll show it to you anyway.
Rank Player Team WARP
1 Damian Lillard Portland Trail Blazers +0.81
2 Markieff Morris Phoenix Suns +0.77
3 Pau Gasol Chicago Bulls +0.76
4 Monta Ellis Dallas Mavericks +0.74
5 James Harden Houston Rockets +0.73
6 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks +0.69
7 Anthony Davis New Orleans Pelicans +0.67
8 Mike Conley Memphis Grizzlies +0.67
9 LaMarcus Aldridge Portland Trail Blazers +0.67
10 Jimmy Butler Chicago Bulls +0.60
Damian Lillard has a reputation as one of the league's top closers, and the numbers so far in 2014-15 validate that perception. He's fourth in the league with 84 points in 95 clutch minutes but, more impressive, he's turned the ball over just twice despite having the ball in his hands so often. There aren't a lot of surprises on the list, though Morris' No. 2 ranking will raise some eyebrows. As I discovered while putting together these numbers, it shouldn't; over the past three years, Morris has consistently raised his level of play at clutch time as much as any player in the league.
Who's been the most efficient?
The previous list is conspicuously missing any members of those sharpshooting Warriors. The explanation of course is that Golden State just hasn't played very many close games. So let's look at the leaders by winning percentage for players that have logged at least 30 clutch minutes.
Rank Player Team Win %
1 Anthony Davis New Orleans Pelicans .934
2 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers .908
3 James Harden Houston Rockets .901
4 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks .849
5 Pau Gasol Chicago Bulls .833
6 Kyle Korver Atlanta Hawks .826
7 Damian Lillard Portland Trail Blazers .826
8 Jimmy Butler Chicago Bulls .822
9 Monta Ellis Dallas Mavericks .820
10 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors .818
These numbers can change a lot even in a single night because of sample size, as they did for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combined to shoot 4-for-11 with zero 3-pointers or free throws during Golden State's 10 clutch minutes Tuesday. New Orleans hasn't been a very good clutch team, but it's not Davis' fault. He's 19-for-27 from the floor and 19-for-21 from the line in 62 clutch minutes with zero turnovers. Korver's 98.5 clutch true shooting percentage is just silly, though it's driven up by his status as one of the league's best closing foul shooters. Nevertheless, that figure is one of the most remarkable stats of the season of any type. He's 10-for-15 from the field with eight 3s, and 18-for-19 from the line for 46 points in 63 clutch minutes.
Who steps it up the most?
In theory, a player whose winning percentage in clutch situations greatly exceeds his normal total is "stepping it up." Of course, if his normal winning percentage stinks, then it's not that important that he improves when it's close. And for a measure like this, you really want to maximize sample size. That's not easy because if you go back too far in the past, you risk measuring a player's skill that no longer exists. I used three-year clutch stats, including this season, and cut the list down to players with at least 300 clutch minutes over that span. I only looked at players with a composite winning percentage of at least .500 because, again, I'm not interested in poor players who become less poor. These filters left me with a list of 40 qualifying players.
Player cMIN cWin% tWin% CLUTCH
Chris Bosh 391 .721 .573 1.260
Nicolas Batum 420 .667 .547 1.221
James Harden 358 .836 .686 1.219
Zach Randolph 400 .647 .544 1.190
Mike Conley 411 .694 .607 1.144
Jeff Teague 354 .616 .539 1.143
Kyrie Irving 337 .671 .592 1.134
Wesley Matthews 435 .585 .517 1.132
LeBron James 390 .873 .778 1.123
Marc Gasol 396 .665 .594 1.118
The clutch factor in the right column is simply the player's clutch winning percentage divided by his total winning percentage, which yields what we'll call "Clutch Ratio." Chris Bosh leads the way by raising his performance by 26 percent in close spots over the past three years. He's been consistent, too, with Clutch Ratios of 1.286, 1.221 and 1.330 over the past three years, respectively. Nicolas Batum's clutch numbers sparkle, but they're becoming less important because of Lillard's rise. Batum's got an 85.2 true shooting percentage in the clutch this season, but his usage rate is just 8.2 percent.
Who steps it up the least?
While you don't want to be on this list, I still hesitate to suggest these players can't play well in the clutch. It's just that they haven't, at least not over the past three years. It's the same measure as the last list, only sorted from worst to best.
Player cMIN cWin% tWin% CLUTCH
Rudy Gay 367 .377 .512 .737
Blake Griffin 334 .480 .619 .775
Goran Dragic 397 .445 .568 .784
Brandon Jennings 319 .445 .533 .835
Kyle Lowry 436 .536 .639 .840
Nikola Vucevic 304 .465 .549 .847
Serge Ibaka 380 .511 .584 .875
Deron Williams 323 .512 .578 .886
John Wall 437 .562 .610 .922
Darren Collison 323 .478 .517 .925
Rudy Gay ranks last this season with minus-0.33 clutch WARP. He was also at the bottom of the league in 2012-13, though last season he was pretty good. In the bad seasons, his volume doesn't justify his efficiency. He's got a 27.5 usage rate in clutch situations this season but just a 38.3 true shooting percentage. He's 8-for-33 overall this season and 0-for-6 on 3s when it matters most. Some of these names will surprise, though in the cases of Kyle Lowry and John Wall, they're still pretty good, just not as good as the rest of the time. Blake Griffin's drop-off is troubling, but it's also old news: His clutch performance fell off by 44.4 percent from his season mark two years ago. This season it goes up by 8.7 percent, with a primary driver of that being improved foul shooting.
Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis among best players down the stretch of games
Updated: January 28, 2015, 1:03 PM ET
By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider
Last week, we took a look at how teams are performing in the clutch. We got a lesson in just how volatile this subset of data can be Tuesday, as runaway league clutch leader Golden State went down in overtime against the Chicago Bulls. The Warriors still rank as the best clutch team in the league by outscoring opponents by 36.8 points per 100 possessions. That's impressive, but last week they were at plus-63.2. Thus is the world of small sample sizes.
Today we're turning our attention to player performance in clutch situations. If the data is that unstable at the team level, you can imagine how it works at the player level. Measuring what players have done is no big trick -- the stats are straightforward once we've agreed to a definition of what constitutes a clutch situation. As we did with the teams, we're going with the most common definition: Any possession during the last five minutes of regulation (plus overtime, as with the Warriors and Bulls on Tuesday) when the score is within five points.
It's important to remember that because of limited sample sizes, among other things, the stats you'll read here might tell you what has occurred, but they don't necessary suggest what's going to happen. That's true of both teams and players, as the Warriors learned last night, but especially true of players. Teams at least can review end-of-game strategies and refocus their attack around certain players. While performance in clutch situations is an important part of the story of a given season, the volatility of the category means that I wouldn't feel comfortable folding the data into my projection system. Not yet, anyway.
All raw clutch data was downloaded from NBA.com/stats, and the core metrics in play are wins above replacement (WARP) and its per-possession counterpart, individual winning percentage.
Here's a look at the NBA's best in terms of late-game production and efficiency, as well as who steps up their game the most -- and who fades the most -- down the stretch.
Who's leading this season?
Looking at the league leaders in clutch WARP tells us which players have compiled the best combination of volume and efficiency in tight situations for the season. That's great, but the problem is the volume part of the equation. As mentioned last week, the total clutch minutes played from team to team can vary greatly. Even after their overtime adventure Tuesday, the Warriors have played just 42 clutch minutes this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies have played 134. Thus, the leaderboard is dominated by teams who have played a lot of close games. But we'll show it to you anyway.
Rank Player Team WARP
1 Damian Lillard Portland Trail Blazers +0.81
2 Markieff Morris Phoenix Suns +0.77
3 Pau Gasol Chicago Bulls +0.76
4 Monta Ellis Dallas Mavericks +0.74
5 James Harden Houston Rockets +0.73
6 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks +0.69
7 Anthony Davis New Orleans Pelicans +0.67
8 Mike Conley Memphis Grizzlies +0.67
9 LaMarcus Aldridge Portland Trail Blazers +0.67
10 Jimmy Butler Chicago Bulls +0.60
Damian Lillard has a reputation as one of the league's top closers, and the numbers so far in 2014-15 validate that perception. He's fourth in the league with 84 points in 95 clutch minutes but, more impressive, he's turned the ball over just twice despite having the ball in his hands so often. There aren't a lot of surprises on the list, though Morris' No. 2 ranking will raise some eyebrows. As I discovered while putting together these numbers, it shouldn't; over the past three years, Morris has consistently raised his level of play at clutch time as much as any player in the league.
Who's been the most efficient?
The previous list is conspicuously missing any members of those sharpshooting Warriors. The explanation of course is that Golden State just hasn't played very many close games. So let's look at the leaders by winning percentage for players that have logged at least 30 clutch minutes.
Rank Player Team Win %
1 Anthony Davis New Orleans Pelicans .934
2 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers .908
3 James Harden Houston Rockets .901
4 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks .849
5 Pau Gasol Chicago Bulls .833
6 Kyle Korver Atlanta Hawks .826
7 Damian Lillard Portland Trail Blazers .826
8 Jimmy Butler Chicago Bulls .822
9 Monta Ellis Dallas Mavericks .820
10 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors .818
These numbers can change a lot even in a single night because of sample size, as they did for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combined to shoot 4-for-11 with zero 3-pointers or free throws during Golden State's 10 clutch minutes Tuesday. New Orleans hasn't been a very good clutch team, but it's not Davis' fault. He's 19-for-27 from the floor and 19-for-21 from the line in 62 clutch minutes with zero turnovers. Korver's 98.5 clutch true shooting percentage is just silly, though it's driven up by his status as one of the league's best closing foul shooters. Nevertheless, that figure is one of the most remarkable stats of the season of any type. He's 10-for-15 from the field with eight 3s, and 18-for-19 from the line for 46 points in 63 clutch minutes.
Who steps it up the most?
In theory, a player whose winning percentage in clutch situations greatly exceeds his normal total is "stepping it up." Of course, if his normal winning percentage stinks, then it's not that important that he improves when it's close. And for a measure like this, you really want to maximize sample size. That's not easy because if you go back too far in the past, you risk measuring a player's skill that no longer exists. I used three-year clutch stats, including this season, and cut the list down to players with at least 300 clutch minutes over that span. I only looked at players with a composite winning percentage of at least .500 because, again, I'm not interested in poor players who become less poor. These filters left me with a list of 40 qualifying players.
Player cMIN cWin% tWin% CLUTCH
Chris Bosh 391 .721 .573 1.260
Nicolas Batum 420 .667 .547 1.221
James Harden 358 .836 .686 1.219
Zach Randolph 400 .647 .544 1.190
Mike Conley 411 .694 .607 1.144
Jeff Teague 354 .616 .539 1.143
Kyrie Irving 337 .671 .592 1.134
Wesley Matthews 435 .585 .517 1.132
LeBron James 390 .873 .778 1.123
Marc Gasol 396 .665 .594 1.118
The clutch factor in the right column is simply the player's clutch winning percentage divided by his total winning percentage, which yields what we'll call "Clutch Ratio." Chris Bosh leads the way by raising his performance by 26 percent in close spots over the past three years. He's been consistent, too, with Clutch Ratios of 1.286, 1.221 and 1.330 over the past three years, respectively. Nicolas Batum's clutch numbers sparkle, but they're becoming less important because of Lillard's rise. Batum's got an 85.2 true shooting percentage in the clutch this season, but his usage rate is just 8.2 percent.
Who steps it up the least?
While you don't want to be on this list, I still hesitate to suggest these players can't play well in the clutch. It's just that they haven't, at least not over the past three years. It's the same measure as the last list, only sorted from worst to best.
Player cMIN cWin% tWin% CLUTCH
Rudy Gay 367 .377 .512 .737
Blake Griffin 334 .480 .619 .775
Goran Dragic 397 .445 .568 .784
Brandon Jennings 319 .445 .533 .835
Kyle Lowry 436 .536 .639 .840
Nikola Vucevic 304 .465 .549 .847
Serge Ibaka 380 .511 .584 .875
Deron Williams 323 .512 .578 .886
John Wall 437 .562 .610 .922
Darren Collison 323 .478 .517 .925
Rudy Gay ranks last this season with minus-0.33 clutch WARP. He was also at the bottom of the league in 2012-13, though last season he was pretty good. In the bad seasons, his volume doesn't justify his efficiency. He's got a 27.5 usage rate in clutch situations this season but just a 38.3 true shooting percentage. He's 8-for-33 overall this season and 0-for-6 on 3s when it matters most. Some of these names will surprise, though in the cases of Kyle Lowry and John Wall, they're still pretty good, just not as good as the rest of the time. Blake Griffin's drop-off is troubling, but it's also old news: His clutch performance fell off by 44.4 percent from his season mark two years ago. This season it goes up by 8.7 percent, with a primary driver of that being improved foul shooting.
TFIR
In the Rotation
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2014
- Messages
- 693
- Reaction score
- 792
- Points
- 93
Article by Blake Griffin explaining how he built his jump shot. Humorous.
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/wh...ational Newsletter&utm_campaign=GMIB 2/4/2015
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/wh...ational Newsletter&utm_campaign=GMIB 2/4/2015
Lionheart
Sixth Man
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2008
- Messages
- 1,583
- Reaction score
- 1,926
- Points
- 113
Wow, I completely forgot about the Player's Tribune. I've always liked reading pieces from the athlete's POV. If you have the time, check out CJ Mcollum's (Portland PG) articles, his topics range from talking about the best guards in the league (he mentions Kyrie), to fun advice for NBA rookies.