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Hollinger Power Rankings Are Out

Discussion in 'Around The NBA' started by Obawan12, Jan 10, 2012.

  1. Obawan12

    Obawan12 Team Statistician

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    You may be surprised as to who is first...

    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

    The cavs are ranked 17th today, and the 98.205 rating basically means the cavs have played like a slightly below average team up to this point. Obviously the sample size is still small, so these rankings could change drastically tomorrow based on a single blow out win (or loss). However, they are a good indicator of who has played well and who hasn't up to this point.

    And please, keep in mind that these rankings are 100% computer automated. Hollinger has no say in how teams are actually ranked; everything is calculated based on a formula he created over 5 years ago.

    EDIT: Actually, Hollinger explains it pretty well himself right here:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...hia-76ers-lead-inaugural-daily-power-rankings
     
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  2. PeterGibbons

    PeterGibbons Rookie

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    So if you beat crappy teams by a wider margin you are somehow the No. 1 most "powerful" team in the NBA?

    Philadelphia has one win against a team with a winning record - Indiana.

    Sorry, but that algorithm is broken.
     
  3. KingDelonte13

    KingDelonte13 In the Rotation

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    small sample size...
     
  4. Obawan12

    Obawan12 Team Statistician

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    :shakehead

    No matter how well it's explained some people just never get it lol.
     
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  5. PeterGibbons

    PeterGibbons Rookie

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    I love how Hollinger tries to proclaim objectivity by saying that "no human judgement is used."

    That's laughable - unless Hollinger himself is a cyborg sent from the future to explain to us mere mortals what criteria is important when deciding which teams are better than others.

    He is human, he developed the algorithm, ergo human judgement is used.

    He might as well just say, "based on my opinion about how to decide which teams should be ranked at a given moment in time, I found a way to do it without having to actually to do any real thinking."

    And yeah, I get it.
     
  6. IWantAKouki

    IWantAKouki Kouki, Not Cookie.

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    Good Lord does this need to be discussed every time. Take the rankings for what they are. He developed a formula to attempt to rank the teams. He KNOWS it isn't always the most accurate, and he ADMITS it all the time when his formula spits out things that he thinks are wrong. And I'm sure he's working on honing in the formula all the time.

    He's just having fun with numbers. Take it for what it is and this whole "LOL what a shitty formula" argument does NOT need to be brought up all the time because we all understand what it is and what it isn't. And the fact that his numbers are generally indicative of teams' standings is a nice testament.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 10, 2012
  7. Obawan12

    Obawan12 Team Statistician

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    No, you don't, but I will attempt to explain it to you.

    Hollinger created his formula based on past results. He looked all the other past champions and elite teams, figured out what they had in common, and developed a formula based on the data he found. It's not like he picked a couple stat lines he liked, then decided to throw them together and create some formula. He is paid to crunch numbers. It's his job, and he's pretty good at it.

    What's laughable to me is how you're so determined that you are right, yet in reality the entire thing went straight over your head.
     
  8. PeterGibbons

    PeterGibbons Rookie

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    Classy response.

    Last I checked this was an open forum for discussion. If you don't like my response, then just ignore it. Telling me to "shut the hell" up is childish.

    How's this...Hollinger's Power Rankings are so much fun and provide interesting fodder for awesome discussion.

    Better?
     
  9. Obawan12

    Obawan12 Team Statistician

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    Actually, his rankings aren't always indicative of the standings, but they are usually pretty indicative when it comes to predicting who is going to win it all. In the 5 (or 6?, not sure) years that his formula has been out, only once has the NBA champ not been one of the top 2 teams in his rankings. The rankings have been very good at predicting playoff success in-general.

    I'm certainly not claiming the rankings are perfect, but I will most definitely claim that they are one of the best measures of a team's worth available to us in this day and age. Certainly better than any "analyst" or "expert" opinion, and obviously they exclude the bias and subjectivity that 99% of fans put into their arguments. Sadly, most fans cannot come to terms with things like the 6ers just having played really well for 2 weeks, so they instantly call the rankings bogus without doing any further research of their own. Disappointing, but it really doesn't matter in the end.
     
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  10. IWantAKouki

    IWantAKouki Kouki, Not Cookie.

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    I felt bad so I changed it :rolleyes:

    Point still stands.
     
  11. IWantAKouki

    IWantAKouki Kouki, Not Cookie.

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    Yeah that's what I meant to say but standings was obviously a poor word choice.
     
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  12. BannerYearz

    BannerYearz Rookie

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    The Mavs were quite a ways back in point differential last year if I recall (and before you say it was because they played a West-heavy schedule, they were a decent ways back among West teams, too.)

    The Hollinger stats correctly predicted that we were nowhere near a 7-9 team and the Heat were nowhere near a 9-8 team last year, too, but a well-trained monkey should've been able to figure that out, much as we wanted to believe otherwise.
     
  13. shukle

    shukle Rookie

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    well, I hope the Cavs aren't the 18th best team in the league then... Because that would mean one hell of a crappy pick, not even going to the playoffs... I mean, if you are gonna be mediocre, please at least reach the playoffs!
     
  14. Lee

    Lee Established Since 2005

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    This is the problem with getting 2 of the 5 best rookies who are performing well and playing within our coaches system. We have to hope to get lucky in the lottery and the 2012 draft really is as deep as everyone says.

    Cant really hope for for TT or Kyrie to stop playing well as their development is as important as anything. So we will have future cap room, some type of asset in return for sessions/andy and hopefully the 10th pick or so in a deep draft. If we draft smart (again), we should be ok.
     
  15. Marcus

    Marcus Let's go Cabs!

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    The schedule is about to get a lot tougher -- I'm personally not worried about the Cavs falling out of the top 5 for the draft, although I don't think they're going to end up with that #1 pick again. If they do then there are going to be a lot of people crying foul.
     
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  16. shukle

    shukle Rookie

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    KI and TT playing great is the only thing I am rooting for!
    I kinda wish we didn't have jamison and andy, these two make us win games, especially andy... Take andy out of the middle, and it's dunk contest on the cavs all year!
    Now we are prolly just showcasing jamison. As for Andy, I don't know what this organization hs in store for him... He is good, but will be declining by the time we are contenders and making way too much money. To me, you have to trade him this season or this off season... (preferably the first, we would be getting a better pick)

    I know you don't play to lose... But at the same time, since you know you are not doing anything this year, it's better to be bad... If we can draft let's say MKG and a C (i'm not buying the drummond hype, he has bust written all over him! Looks like another Kwame to me) then we would be in good shape :) I also want to keep cap space for 2013-2014, because that is when we have to make our moves.
     
  17. Birdy89

    Birdy89 Sixth Man

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    Temporarily it is about to get harder, but on a whole the unbalanced schedule created by the shortened season really benefits the Cavs in the sense that we only play some of the western conference powers once instead of twice.

    The schedule is much easier this year than normal for the Cavs, and they will win a greater % of games than they might in a normal regular season where they are playing everyone at least twice.

    Alot of the teams Cleveland is only playing once are teams they likely would have lost to twice, so that right there is going to bump the winning % up because they are saving what would traditionally be losses.

    People who want to tank won't like this reality, but the unbalanced schedule makes tanking much more difficult for a Cavs team that is reasonably competitive.
     
  18. ButterMPancakes

    ButterMPancakes

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    I'll admit I don't watch every single Cavs game, but


    [​IMG]
     
  19. BannerYearz

    BannerYearz Rookie

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    Actually, Hollinger has us 7th in the east after last night's loss, despite being 19th leaguewide.
     
  20. Jon

    Jon ~

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    At 4-5, TeamRankings has us 10th in the East with an expected win total of 25.7, and now a 21.6% chance of making the playoffs.

    Given where we're at, we're not going to lose a lot of ground losing to higher ranked teams on the road.

    I think Hollinger may throw in some sort of a "what have you done for me recently" factor in to his rankings so they track a little better with the Mark Stein versions, but I'm not sure if TeamRankings does.

    btw, they have Sacramento at a projected 22 wins - which puts them at the cellar of the West.


    http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/
     

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