Hollinger's Draft Rater: Who wiill be good pros?

[Smooth]

What I want to know is what factors is his draft rater based on that Thompson scored so well on?

Your answer from Hollinger himself:

Joe (Seattle)
For us non math geeks how does Draft rater work? The Morris twins had high PER yet so low on the rater. T. Thompson the opposite what gives?

John Hollinger
It's a regression analysis that looks at a series of variables, determines which are statistically significant predictors of pro success, and weights them accordingly. A couple of the biggest for frontcourt players are age (younger=better), years of college experience (fewer=better), blocked shot rate (more=better) and free-throw rate (more=better). There are others (16 in all) but those are the ones that favor Thompson.​

Also from that chat:

Ricardo (Orlando)
Is it my impression or we started to hear Tristan Thompson's a lot more since you posted your Draft Rater, J.H.?

John Hollinger
We did, but it may be coincidence. Everyone I talk to raves about Thompson on the character/intangibles stuff, and I think that makes him a much safer pick in the eyes of many GMs once it gets time to actually pull the lever.​

Link: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/39005

 

[OptimusPrime]

So the reasons Thompson is so high on his list are that he is young, only played 1 year of college, blocks shots, and gets to the line (where he can't make the free throws). Sounds like a can't miss guy to me.

 

[WhoWeAre]

So the reasons Thompson is so high on his list are that he is young, only played 1 year of college, blocks shots, and gets to the line (where he can't make the free throws). Sounds like a can't miss guy to me.

There were only two "can't miss" guys in this draft, and we got one of them. Everyone else is a crap shoot. I love this pick the more I look at it and dig into potential rationale for the move.

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

So the reasons Thompson is so high on his list are that he is young, only played 1 year of college, blocks shots, and gets to the line (where he can't make the free throws). Sounds like a can't miss guy to me.

Plays shutdown defense, has great character, and is a tireless worker. They probably hope some of that will rub off. He'll need to learn to do better at the line and in the post. I think a big part of it is that he's got tremendous potential and is very coachable.

He seems like Tyrus Thomas with better rebounding and offense. And, if you noticed, Tyrus Thomas dramatically improved his free throw shooting. But he's going to be a lockdown defensive player in the paint.

 

[OptimusPrime]

Plays shutdown defense, has great character, and is a tireless worker. They probably hope some of that will rub off. He'll need to learn to do better at the line and in the post. I think a big part of it is that he's got tremendous potential and is very coachable.

He seems like Tyrus Thomas with better rebounding and offense. And, if you noticed, Tyrus Thomas dramatically improved his free throw shooting. But he's going to be a lockdown defensive player in the paint.

Tyrus Thomas sucks, and how is Thompson's offense better?

 

[Manoovi]

If Hollinger is correct then we owned this draft

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Tyrus Thomas sucks, and how is Thompson's offense better?

Thomas is a good defender and Thompson is supposed to be better. Part of how Thompson's offense is better is that he gets more rebounds and generated more putbacks. He is already good in the transition game, cutting to the basket and delivering the points. And he also looked good in his limited experience in the pick and roll - something I'd expect to see a lot of with Baron and Irving here. He has the physical tools and the work ethic to develop as an effective low post player as well.

 

[Jon]

It's about playing efficiently, albeit improving his free throw shooting will play a big role in that. Tyrus Thomas can be a wrecking ball on D, but he insists on firing up a bunch of jumpers (65% of his shot attempts) because he thinks he's got to be a scorer when he only knocks them down at a 40% rate.

On a side note, JJ has the same problem but without the defensive ability nor the accuracy (55% jumpers at a 35% rate).

Heck, other than a few notable PF's like Dirk it's really quite the cess pool of inefficiency around the league. You'd almost prefer a PF who doesn't shoot jumpers to some of these guys who insist on taking them, but can't approach 1 PPP when shooting them.

You just can't have none shooters killing your floor spacing. Interestingly, two players with decent efficiency on their jumpers last season were Dwight and Andy ... it's just they don't shoot them very often, and probably take very few contested shots. Is it a coincidence that they both came in to the league without a J?

It's hard to squeeze the inefficiency out of a player who's convinced himself that he's a scorer ...

 

[Pioneer10]

It's a quandary: you want a guy like Tyrus Thomas (who is a terrific defender when his head is on straight) to be able to stretch the floor but not become convinced that they are the next Dirk at the same time.

A guy like Haslem seems to find the right balance. Like Haslem, Thompson is supposed to be a hard worker. Tyrus Thomas with Haslem's jumper and smarts would be very very good PF. Not many guys who can defend the post and be very good help defender as well.

 

[Kuiper]

It's a quandary: you want a guy like Tyrus Thomas (who is a terrific defender when his head is on straight) to be able to stretch the floor but not become convinced that they are the next Dirk at the same time.

A guy like Haslem seems to find the right balance. Like Haslem, Thompson is supposed to be a hard worker. Tyrus Thomas with Haslem's jumper and smarts would be very very good PF. Not many guys who can defend the post and be very good help defender as well.

Isn't the real problem that in Byran Scott's offensive scheme, the PF needs to be able to make outside shots to pull people out of the paint? That's why JJ did better as a center. It kept him stationed near the basket. If so, where does Thompson fit? As an undersized center?

 

[Nom]

This might be a stupid question - but is a defensive PF a huge need? It seems the league is dominated by wings and point guards. I understand the value of defense and that in today's NBA, having big underneath to help in zones, etc, is helpful - but it just seems that PF is the least important position to defend.

 

[Pioneer10]

This might be a stupid question - but is a defensive PF a huge need? It seems the league is dominated by wings and point guards. I understand the value of defense and that in today's NBA, having big underneath to help in zones, etc, is helpful - but it just seems that PF is the least important position to defend.

Defensive big men who can help in the post and the wing are critical:
KG
Duncan
Chandler
Wallace
Howard
Martin

You can't underrate the impact of a defensive big as the best decade has been full of Finals team with great defensive big men and in specific PF's (KG, Duncan, Wallace being the cream of the crop). The issue is will Thompson have enough of an offensive game to be able to stay on the floor (look at what happened to Noah: he does a great job defending against Lebron but the Bulls couldn't play him down the stretch of games because they couldn't score with him in there)

 

[pl4tinum]

I would think that other teams would send people into the paint less with Thompson in there threatening to reject them. More shooting from outside is generally what you want as a defense.