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How much $$$ we will have to spend.

Discussion in 'Cavs Talk' started by Mad Hatter, Apr 23, 2005.

  1. Mad Hatter

    Mad Hatter Weapon of Choice

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    OK, I just want to clear up a few things here and try to make our cash situation a little more clear. It looks like we can count on having at least $24m to work with, and here is how I came to this conclusion. This is a little long so bear with me.

    First of all, no, we won't know for sure EXACTLY how much money we have to spend until we find out what the salary cap is for next season, after they hammer out the new CBA. What we DO know is that the cap is going up, and probably by a large amount.

    Here's what else we know. The following 9 players are under contract for 05-06: Snow, LeBron, Gooden, Newble, Lucious Harris, Luke Jackson, Jiri Welsch, Sasha, and AV.

    We have $26.1m committed to those 9 guys. (Traylor has a $1.76m team option that we can pick up. This is not included.)

    Now then, Lucious Harris has a buyout in his contract that will almost certainly be used, although I'm not sure of the amount. The amount of the buyout DOES count against the cap, but the buyout can be no more than HALF of his $2.75m salary next year. Let's say it's $1m. It may be less, but we'll go with that.

    That makes it $24.4m committed to 8 guys.

    This year's salary cap was $43.8m. If the cap were exactly the same next year, we'd have roughly $19.4m to spend after buying out Harris. But the cap is rising, so we will have more than that.

    Why is the cap rising? Well first of all, the cap rises naturally almost every year. It is determined by a percentage of the league's BRI (basketball related income). Under the current CBA, only once has the cap not gone up, and that was due to a major change in the TV contract.

    There's something else we know. The owners, reportedly, have said they will be RAISING the percentage of BRI that determines the salary cap. Right now, the cap is defined as 48% of BRI. There's a chance it could rise to around 55%. If they did this, it would increase the cap to $50.3m! This is without even factoring in a rise in BRI, which occurs naturally.

    If the cap did rise this high, we'd have over $26m to spend (after buying out Harris). Now, the percentage increase may not really be that high, but remember you have to assume BRI will go up by itself, in ADDITION to whatever percentage raise they use. So even with a change to, say, 52%... a sharp rise in BRI could still bring the cap to the $48-$50m range.

    OK, so what am I trying to say? Basically, I am saying that it is "safe" to count on having $24m to spend on free agents this offseason. We may very well have more than that! But when you are thinking about who you want to pick up, and making projections, that's a safe, round number to use: $24 million.

    We have no draft picks, either, so additional salary will only come from free agents or trades (and Traylor's option, if picked up).

    Remember there will also be other exceptions, such as the MLE (mid level exception) that can be used once you hit the cap (but the way you can use the MLE will be changing in the new CBA).

    Also keep in mind that it looks like the organization plans on trading Jiri Welsch. If it's for a draft pick, that frees up another $2.2m. If the draft pick was for the upcoming draft, factor in a rookie contract.
     
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  2. Karma

    Karma Retire the #11

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    Great post Mad Hatter. It can be a little confusing (the whole cap situation), but you broke it down quite well. So we are looking at between 23-26 million cap space.

    * I believe Traylor's option should be taken up. It is for less then 2 million, which to me is great value.

    * There will be a trade within our young guard / forwards. Jiri is the most likely to be moved, with Sasha next in line. This will either bring a draft pick, a young point, or young big.

    * To Z or not to Z? That is the question! We all agree 14 million is too much. The sensible intelligent ones here agree that signing him to a 10 million dollar deal would be a no brainer.

    * If Z is signed at our wanted rate with Traylor, we would have around 10ish million remainding. Obviously we look at those free agent 2 guards next. If we fail we then look at getting a couple a young talented players who have yet to really make there mark like Simmons / Watson.

    So many things can happen.
     
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  3. Red Cap

    Red Cap Rookie

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    Thanks for the post, Mad Hatter! :thumbup:

    I have also red from somewhere that the new CBA will only allow contracts to be 4 years max.

    Since the Cavaliers have so much money to spend, they will surely sign atleast a couple of good FA this offseason. Their only competition are the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, New Orleans Hornets and to a lesser extent Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks.
     
  4. The Disector

    The Disector The OWNER

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    You must have to be sensible and intelligent to pay a guy 10 million dollars to not be a force on either side of the floor!
     
  5. Mad Hatter

    Mad Hatter Weapon of Choice

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    I agree with Karma on picking up Traylor's option, unless Traylor publicly says he doesn't want to come back for some reason. Otherwise, it is too cheap to pass up on. I'd also be willing to go $11m on Z if the first year could be at $9m.

    I'd be conservative in general. You can't blow up the roster every year and expect guys to mesh well. Also, I still really like Joe Johnson and do not feel Phoenix will re-sign him. So my plan based on $24m to spend (and Harris already being bought out) would be:

    1. Pick up Traylor's option ($1.76m).

    2. Sign Z to a 3 year, $33m contract starting at $9m ($11m, $13m the following years).

    3. Trade Jiri for whatever we can get.

    4. Sign Joe Johnson to a deal starting at $8m (again, escalating) - this could start at $9m if we move Jiri quickly.

    5. Use the remaining money (between $4m and $7.5m depending on how steps 3-4 go) on the PG of your choice - I don't have a major preference here, so Earl Watson for example. I do think it's best to go after a younger PG that can grow with the team, since we already have a vet PG.
     
  6. Mad Hatter

    Mad Hatter Weapon of Choice

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    I would just like to add that Seattle has a ton of cap space as well. More than us, in fact, but they have a number of their own guys to worry about re-signing. But if they don't bring Ray Allen back, they could be a major player as well.
     
  7. The Disector

    The Disector The OWNER

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  8. TyGuy

    TyGuy With the Left hand!

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    We will most likely have between 20-24 million in cap space and you can count on us using it all up. You actually want to use it up when its time to spend because when you are over the cap, you cna utilize the mle. If you are say 1 million dolalrs under, thats all you have to spend.

    Also disecter, that guys plan is awful and so is the espn board as a matter of fact.

    Sign jj and z both with starting salaries 0f 9.2(joes will be a 5 year with a player option with max amount aloud of pay increase). Trade luke jax and drew gooden to portland for a re-signed shareef and a future 2nd rounder. Sign sarunis (not sure of last name) dude from lith that is z's best friend and an amazing point guard with rest of available cap.

    Snow
    Joe
    Bron
    Shareef
    Z

    key bench
    Sarunis
    Newble
    Sasha
    Av
    Tractor
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2005
  9. Pioneer10

    Pioneer10 Send Sideshow to ASG

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    IMO, the ideal situation would be to resign Z for 10 million, throw the rest at a SG (I say JJ), and then trade sasha/jiri/both for a young PG (my choice Duhon). Tractor should be picked up as well.

    Frontline of Z, Gooden,, LEbron, JJ, and Snow. Bench of Tractor, AV, Luke, and Duhon. Vast improvement over this year. I'll state again that the frontcourt was not the issue this year. Despite the collapse, with a flawed team we played some very tough teams even till they adjusted for lack of perimeter scoring. We're very close to be being a championship calibre team IMO.

    The question I have is if Phoenix come up for a sign and trade for JJ for Gooden, I'm leaning towards doing it but I'm not sure. Especially if get back for Z and Traylor
     
  10. The Disector

    The Disector The OWNER

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    I was looking that over and who says it's all our cap space. Basicly our cap would be about the same as it is now with alot more talent--that's a contender if you put all those pieces around Bron!

    The Cavs cap will be what the new owners are willing to make it especially if Dallas and New York are allowed to have 90+ million dollar payrolls!
     
  11. TyGuy

    TyGuy With the Left hand!

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    I would do a sign and trade if we could get back someone like steve hunter of jake but we need another big if that happens. However I like my deal with portland because he simply doesnt fit in there, he is a ufa and they would probably love to get luke back. Also, gooden would be very nice for them as well off the bench. Too bad they signed z-bo to that extreme deal. Reef i bet could come at a nice price and we wouldnt have to worry about his free agency next season like we would have to with gooden.
     
  12. NarlCavs

    NarlCavs Gold Star Member

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    With that plan from ESPN it confuses cap with payroll. Many of those moves are not possible and Battier is not a FA either.

    I like Joe Johnson too but I think Phoenix will match an offer and it is also too much of a risk to make a run at him with his restricted FA status. It would tie up valuable time waiting to see whether an offer is matched or not. The rest of the top FA's could be gone by the time that 2 week period for the Suns to make a decision is up.
    I'd go after Allen and Redd 1st since they're unrestricted and are stronger possibilities to leave their current teams.

    I'm starting to like the idea of going after Duhon as a young PG too. He's a defensive minded true PG and the Bulls also can't match offers over the MLE since he was a 2nd round pick.
     
  13. TyGuy

    TyGuy With the Left hand!

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    I like all three of those 2 guards to tell you the truth but sicne i really started watching jj, I believe he will be the better player of the three. Phoenix have drafted extremely well and I think they could get a guy to replace jj's role on that team. His role was to defend the better guard, occasionaly play point guard and to stroke the three. In all honesty, they could probably get by just using jim jackson as their starting 3 and having q take on more of a roll that jj had.

    You have to remember that Phoenix is relying on jj's restricted status to not get offers. They have to sign amare this off season as well. If they match an offer sheet on jj that hovers around 10 and they WILL sign amare to max. Their pay roll will be way into the 70 mill. I think thats a little steep for the roll that jj plays on that team. He is a quit killer for them and I think he is ready for a bigger roll cause he is very reminisant of a scotty pippen with extreme three point acuracy to me.
     
  14. The Disector

    The Disector The OWNER

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    I like the team there but I like the concept more. Build the team with good talent all the way around not just 2 players!
     
  15. TyGuy

    TyGuy With the Left hand!

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    When did anybody say we were just getting two players. The problem we had all year was our shooting guard and one of our point guards. Like Drew Goodwrencnh said "if it aint broke dont fix it" implying our frontcourt.
     
  16. Mad Hatter

    Mad Hatter Weapon of Choice

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    This is definitely a concern, but we might have to take a gamble because I feel JJ is a better fit for this team than Allen or Redd. Also, I still say that the Suns would not match a deal starting at $9m for JJ. They have $30m tied up next year on just 3 guys already (Nash/Marion/Q) and Amare is due a big raise the season after next. The Suns have said they are not prepared to pay a lot of luxury tax. In fact, the Suns already have $45m committed for next year without counting Joe Johnson. So they are already over the current cap, not far under whatever the new cap will be, and Amare will be getting at least $10m more than what he is currently getting, after next season. Honestly, I could see them balking at $9m for JJ and just trying to plug JIM Jackson in there (for the short term). He did start a few games for them since they acquired him and he shot 45.9% from 3 point range in 40 games for the Suns.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2005
  17. Mad Hatter

    Mad Hatter Weapon of Choice

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    Heh, I didn't even see you wrote this until after I said basically the same thing. So... yeah, I agree. :cool:
     
  18. TyGuy

    TyGuy With the Left hand!

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    I also believe that bringing in jim jackson not only was to help strengthen their bench but also to soften the blow if joe left them.
     
  19. Rimage

    Rimage Sixth Man

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    What I would like to see happen.

    Let everyone walk except for Z. Resign him for 10-11 a year. Buy out Harris (of course). Pick up Traylors option. He is a solid bench player.

    I keep hearing people talking about trading Gooden and Luke. I think that would be a huge mistake. Gooden has been nothing but a positive in my opinion. People said he would be an off court problem, but I haven't seen any of that at all. When he was benched he didn't pout, he played hard and got his starting position back. He may be dumb, but I don't see him as a distraction. We haven't even seen what Luke can do and I have heard nothing negative about the kid. Keep him! If we are going to trade anyone it is Jiri or Sasha.

    Forget Joe Johnson. Phoenix is going to get him back. Forget Redd too. Bobby Simmons is the key. He is similar to Johnson but a lot cheaper. PG position could be filled by Dickau, Watson, or Daniels. I think going after Dalembert would be good too.

    Starting Line up:

    PG - Snow
    SG - Simmons
    SF - Lebron
    PF - Gooden
    C - Big Z

    Bench

    PG - Dickau/Watson
    SG - Newble and Jackson
    SF - Pavlovic
    PF - Varejao
    C - Traylor and Dalembert
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2005
  20. TyGuy

    TyGuy With the Left hand!

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    simmons is too much of a risk. Sure he is having a nice season but tis only been once nice season. Lets not forget teh guy wasn teve drafted out of college. I have seen both joe and simmons play, they may put up roughly similar stats but joe is easily the better player and worth the extra scrilla and the ristcted fa risk.
     

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