Johnny Manziel: Swan Won't Return His Calls

[AZ_]

I can make that call because Jeff Garcia wasn't a major threat on the ground for the majority of his NFL career. Blame it on the era or his age, but he was never as dynamic a runner in the NFL than Manziel is right now. The Garcia comparison falls short in that regard, it's not nearly as perfect as you're claiming.

I'll agree Manziel needs to keep improving his game from the pocket, that's obviously going to be critical in his development as a pro. I'm not expecting him to have the same immediate success Wilson did, but if we can get even 75% of what Wilson gave the Seahawks as a rookie this team will still compete for the final playoff spot.

That's going to come with the territory when you start your NFL career at 30.

Jeff Garcia with slightly more carries is still a pretty good comparison, in and outside the pocket there are almost uncanny similarities and struggles.

He's going to need to be more than 75% of Wilson, because he's not surrounded by the great defense and running game that can protect him. He may never be surrounded by that, so counting on him to be protected to shield his weaknesses isn't the strategy I'd like to see taken.

 

[Backstage]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sPTLHj87NA&app=desktop

 

[I-77 NORTH]

C'mon you guys, really? You guys fucked up all the hopes I had for this thread heading into the right direction, until someone has to fucking bring up Jeff Garcia......DAMN it you guys.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I think Johnny is more Doug Flutie than he is Jeff Garcia.

And I think Doug Flutie in the modern era is a pretty damn good QB. Definitely a solid NFL Starter.

 

[AZ_]

I think Johnny is more Doug Flutie than he is Jeff Garcia.

And I think Doug Flutie in the modern era is a pretty damn good QB. Definitely a solid NFL Starter.

55 percent completion percentage, 75 QB rating, 6.8 YPA

Sounds about right, actually.

Though we disagree on that being any good at QB. But if Manziel can't outperform this then he doesn't deserve to be in the league.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I think the point is that Flutie:

1) Didn't belong in the old NFL where he was expected to sit back in the pocket and beat teams with just his arm.

2) Flutie was never given a fair shot in the NFL

3) Flutie played most of his physical prime in the CFL.

Flutie in the modern era, with more ball control passing offense, penalties that favor passers, and more open thinkers on offense would make him a good NFL QB.

Franchise QB? Well, I don't know. Same with Manziel. But I think he'll be a good starter.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think the point is that Flutie:

1) Didn't belong in the old NFL where he was expected to sit back in the pocket and beat teams with just his arm.

2) Flutie was never given a fair shot in the NFL

3) Flutie played most of his physical prime in the CFL.

Flutie in the modern era, with more ball control passing offense, penalties that favor passers, and more open thinkers on offense would make him a good NFL QB.

Franchise QB? Well, I don't know. Same with Manziel. But I think he'll be a good starter.

Flutie's problem wasn't size -- it was just that he had a weak arm -- significantly weaker than Hoyer's or Manziel's. The dude just threw a lot of quackers. But, he was very mobile and great at improvisation. His quickness gave him a real advantage given the talent level of the CFL. He could buy time with his feet, and hit receivers on the move with short/intermediate throws.

But the faster defenders in the NFL shrunk that window significantly, and his weaker arm permitted defenses to cheat up because he couldn't hit the deeper ball. I think those weaknesses would hurt him even worse today.

 

[Lee]

One of the stats that is pretty accurate from college to pros is completion percentage. Hoyer averaged 55.8 in 4 years, and 51 and 59 respectively the last 2 years (when he was a full time starter). He also had less than a 2-1 td to int ratio. Not a suprise that accuracy is an issue in the pros for Hoyer.

Manziel is a 69% completion percentage and 3 to 1 td to int. Sure they were different systems, so the number of td's and yardage doesnt matter, but the accuracy is there in college with Manziel.

The 2 most accurate passers this year, Brees and rivers both had over 60% in college completion percentage and a greater than 2 to 1 td to int rate in college. It is typically a transferable stat, and Brees played in a wide open system in college, so its not just the system.

And to be clear, i am not saying Manziel is Brees, but i am not also going to compare him t Wilson, Garcia or Flute. He is who he is. I still dont like the pick because of the off field things, but at this point he deserves his shot. Hoyer has looked awful and pedestrian the last few weeks.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

All of Manziel's passing attempts for the day.

On the pass to Dray:

He makes one more read *although he may have gotten sacked* and finds West, that's a walk in TD.

Gotta be slightly quicker.

 

[AZ_]

One of the stats that is pretty accurate from college to pros is completion percentage. Hoyer averaged 55.8 in 4 years, and 51 and 59 respectively the last 2 years (when he was a full time starter). He also had less than a 2-1 td to int ratio. Not a suprise that accuracy is an issue in the pros for Hoyer.

Manziel is a 69% completion percentage and 3 to 1 td to int. Sure they were different systems, so the number of td's and yardage doesnt matter, but the accuracy is there in college with Manziel.

The 2 most accurate passers this year, Brees and rivers both had over 60% in college completion percentage and a greater than 2 to 1 td to int rate in college. It is typically a transferable stat, and Brees played in a wide open system in college, so its not just the system.

And to be clear, i am not saying Manziel is Brees, but i am not also going to compare him t Wilson, Garcia or Flute. He is who he is. I still dont like the pick because of the off field things, but at this point he deserves his shot. Hoyer has looked awful and pedestrian the last few weeks.

Completion percentage is only relevant when running a similar system in college as you will in the pros.

Once you start getting into the gimmick systems of today's college football, completion percentage as a measure for judging accuracy is wholly irrelevant.

 

[Lee]

Completion percentage is only relevant when running a similar system in college as you will in the pros.

Once you start getting into the gimmick systems of today's college football, completion percentage as a measure for judging accuracy is wholly irrelevant.

Not 100%, but sometimes it does hide arm strength issues. But yeah, i am not typically a fan of gimmicky system qb's which Manziel falls in.

Accuracy is still somewhat transferable.

 

[AZ_]

Accuracy is still somewhat transferable.

I wholeheartedly disagree, honestly.

Between the multitude of failed NFL Draft picks which meet some of that criteria or the sheer amount of kids in college now who can complete a high percentage of passes at that level.

It's not at all a barometer for accuracy.

 

[Binkster]

I wholeheartedly disagree, honestly.

Between the multitude of failed NFL Draft picks which meet some of that criteria or the sheer amount of kids in college now who can complete a high percentage of passes at that level.

It's not at all a barometer for accuracy.

I also think there are a lot of guys who can pinpoint a pass in a combine workout but consistently fail to do so against a live defense.

See: Brandon Weeden, Colt McCoy, every Browns-drafted QB in the last decade+.

 

[Lee]

I wholeheartedly disagree, honestly.

Between the multitude of failed NFL Draft picks which meet some of that criteria or the sheer amount of kids in college now who can complete a high percentage of passes at that level.

It's not at all a barometer for accuracy.

David Carr comes to mind. He had a 62% completion percentage. In the pros he had a 60% completion percentage. His int rate didnt translate, but he was also on some bad teams in Texas.

So the completion percentage did transfer. (which is the far more transferable stat, as gimmicky systems can skew td:int)

 

[Lee]

I also think there are a lot of guys who can pinpoint a pass in a combine workout but consistently fail to do so against a live defense.

See: Brandon Weeden, Colt McCoy, every Browns-drafted QB in the last decade+.

Weeden didnt transfer, and supports AZ as he was highly accurate in college, McCoy's issue is arm strength, so nothing matters.

Like i said, i hate gimmicky qb's and weeden is the perfect example, but we drafted Manziel, best to see what we got in him at this point.