Johnny Manziel: Swan Won't Return His Calls

[AZ_]

David Carr comes to mind. He had a 62% completion percentage. In the pros he had a 60% completion percentage. His int rate didnt translate, but he was also on some bad teams in Texas.

So the completion percentage did transfer. (which is the far more transferable stat, as gimmicky systems can skew td:int)

It's inevitable that some QBs will have their completion percentage transfer to the NFL, you basically have a 12 percentage point range that almost all NFL QBs fall into year-to-year.

For every guy you point to, I can just as easily point to another:

Jamarcus Russell 61% in college, 52% in the pros
Brett Favre 52% to 62%
Byron Leftwich 65% to 57%
Jay Cutler 57% to 61%
Andrew Luck 67% to 58%

And on and on, when you're working with ranges that are within almost a 12-15 point spread from college to pro, simply having a similar number doesn't mean it's transferable.

Roughly 50 QBs at the FBS level have completion percentages over 60 percent this year, at least 20-25 over 65%.

It's not an effective barometer at all.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Hardly.

They both have huge hands, both have elite mobility to evade pressure and extend plays, and both excel at throwing on the run rolling out to both sides of the field. If you've got a better comparison I'd love to hear it, but it's obvious the Browns will mimic how Seattle used Russell Wilson his first couple years.

Expect to see a lot more read option moving forward, which could spark the running game. Crowell had his worst game of the year yesterday (17 carries, 29 yards), I'd like to see something closer to a 50/50 split with Terrance West next to Manziel.

The Browns have gone against two consistently very good run defenses in the past three games (Houston, Buffalo) and I doubt a quarterback change can do much of anything about that. For the most part, I did see the Browns stick with the bootleg and play action type of offense with Manziel, which I think is smart. The pistol / read option shouldn't be a base offense anywhere in the NFL... even with Kaepernick or Cam Newton running it. The QB takes too many hits and you end up with your franchise guy on the sidelines with his arm in a sling.

I said it Sunday and I will say it again: Now we the fans see what the coaching staff has been watching since the draft. If you wanted to see it, this month is for you. I think I've seen enough to believe Manziel isn't ready yet... but enjoy the show everyone! Hope he proves me wrong and shows he learned a lot about reading pass protections in the past three months.

 

[CosmoKramer]

The Browns have gone against two consistently very good run defenses in the past three games (Houston, Buffalo) and I doubt a quarterback change can do much of anything about that. For the most part, I did see the Browns stick with the bootleg and play action type of offense with Manziel, which I think is smart. The pistol / read option shouldn't be a base offense anywhere in the NFL... even with Kaepernick or Cam Newton running it. The QB takes too many hits and you end up with your franchise guy on the sidelines with his arm in a sling.

I said it Sunday and I will say it again: Now we the fans see what the coaching staff has been watching since the draft. If you wanted to see it, this month is for you. I think I've seen enough to believe Manziel isn't ready yet... but enjoy the show everyone! Hope he proves me wrong and shows he learned a lot about reading pass protections in the past three months.

The pistol and read option are two entirely different things; the pistol is a formation while the read option is a play type. No NFL team runs the pistol as its base set, but Philly/Miami use the read action as a core concept in their offensive game plans. The package plays they run start with the QB making a read and, depending on what he sees, can be a quick handoff, a screen, or even a QB keeper. Without knowing the exact play call it's impossible to know how it was called, but both these teams are built on the read option.

Any play that deliberately calls to leave defenders unblocked can be a problem (which is the whole purpose of the read option.) But Chip Kelly (and Bill Lazor to a degree) are showing that by using the read option even NFL teams can gain favorable numbers in the running game.

Basically, I don't see the read option as another fad like the Wildcat or using an unbalanced line. I think it's a staple in future NFL game plans where the QB is a threat on the ground. The constraint that's introduced with a mobile QB keeps rushers from crashing down on the backside and punishes overpursuing defenders. The slight hesitation it can introduce into a defense can be the difference in gaining a first down or not, or a safety having the time to backpedal and tip a pass away.

The QB might be subject to more hits, but I'll take that tradeoff if it means we'll have an offense that can convert third downs and punch in some touchdowns from the red zone.

 

[Randolphkeys]

The pistol and read option are two entirely different things; the pistol is a formation while the read option is a play type. No NFL team runs the pistol as its base set, but Philly/Miami use the read action as a core concept in their offensive game plans. The package plays they run start with the QB making a read and, depending on what he sees, can be a quick handoff, a screen, or even a QB keeper. Without knowing the exact play call it's impossible to know how it was called, but both these teams are built on the read option.

Yeah, but I thought that is a given. My point is that while colleges run both as its bread and butter, both are rarely used as the base offense at the pro level.

Any play that deliberately calls to leave defenders unblocked can be a problem (which is the whole purpose of the read option.) But Chip Kelly (and Bill Lazor to a degree) are showing that by using the read option even NFL teams can gain favorable numbers in the running game.

Basically, I don't see the read option as another fad like the Wildcat or using an unbalanced line. I think it's a staple in future NFL game plans where the QB is a threat on the ground. The constraint that's introduced with a mobile QB keeps rushers from crashing down on the backside and punishes overpursuing defenders. The slight hesitation it can introduce into a defense can be the difference in gaining a first down or not, or a safety having the time to backpedal and tip a pass away.

At the pro level, Chip Kelly has gone through two or three QBs a year. They get injured often because of the additional hits, and often become a little skittish if they get healthy. When I see Kaepernick, RGIII, Wilson, and Newton getting away from what they did in their first few years in the league, I see a trend away from read options... at least until the playoffs when you can take some additional risks. I'm not against additional mobility from QBs, and coming off of knee surgery Hoyer proved to be among the least mobile QBs starting this year... but it doesn't mean the scheme is successful.

The QB might be subject to more hits, but I'll take that tradeoff if it means we'll have an offense that can convert third downs and punch in some touchdowns from the red zone.

It means we see more Manziel running out of bounds after a 2 yard gain. so far, that has been his bread and butter as a Brown.

 

[CosmoKramer]

Yeah, but I thought that is a given. My point is that while colleges run both as its bread and butter, both are rarely used as the base offense at the pro level.



At the pro level, Chip Kelly has gone through two or three QBs a year. They get injured often because of the additional hits, and often become a little skittish if they get healthy. When I see Kaepernick, RGIII, Wilson, and Newton getting away from what they did in their first few years in the league, I see a trend away from read options... at least until the playoffs when you can take some additional risks. I'm not against additional mobility from QBs, and coming off of knee surgery Hoyer proved to be among the least mobile QBs starting this year... but it doesn't mean the scheme is successful.



It means we see more Manziel running out of bounds after a 2 yard gain. so far, that has been his bread and butter as a Brown.

My entire point was that the outdated thinking that the read option won't work at this level is being pulverized by the success of Kelly's Eagles and to an extent Lazor's Dolphins.

The Dolphins should be especially interesting to Browns fans; they've turned an anemic offense around in one year with a young, athletic QB from Texas A&M. The addition of viable offensive linemen was needed, but despite the same skill positions the Dolphins offense looks vastly more effective.

Despite the injuries I don't know how anyone can say Kelly's scheme hasn't been wildly effective. If anything, the sustained success despite shuffling through QBs should be commended; simplifying the system to adapt to completely different styles (Vick , Foles, Sanchez) shows versatility few NFL coaches ever exhibit.

 

[I'mWithDan]

At the pro level, Chip Kelly has gone through two or three QBs a year. They get injured often because of the additional hits, and often become a little skittish if they get healthy.

Nick Foles was injured on a routine sack by a rush end. Vick injured his hamstring moving out of the pocket. What does that have to do with offensive philosophy?

Neither injury can be attributed to "additional hits" IMO. They're just run of the mill injuries that happen in football. If both guys had blown their knees out running the read option, that is one thing but they're just bad breaks that can be attributed to playing a tough sport.

While I agree with the premise that you can't make a living running your QB in to a sea of defensive players, Seattle has proven that a QB can rack up rushing attempts and still remain healthy. Is that read option or pistol as a base? Maybe not but Wilson has 679 yards on 91 attempts. That's 7.5 rushing attempts per game. He's proving it can be done, the QB just has to pick his spots and be smart, as does the play caller.

I also think there's a misconception about many of these offenses. A team can run the read or the pistol and not expose the QB on every play. The reason guys like Keap, Newton, etc. get hurt is because they willingly take on contact IMO. A QB can run in the NFL but he has to be completely aware of his surroundings and pick his battles (contact) very wisely.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I do remember that Chip Kelly recruited Manziel unsuccessfully at Oregon. I do see that, if playing against college defenses, Manziel is a great fit in the Lazor/Kelly type offense. Kelly's system is always entertaining to watch and always produces big yards. Aspects of it certainly should find their way into the Browns playbook. However, I'm identifying some problems the read option have created in San Francisco, Seattle, Carolina, and other offenses elsewhere for three years. Bridgewater separated his shoulder and missed a few games due to a read option just a few weeks ago. Even the Mike Martz system relied on players going unblocked to create mismatches, and at this point the injuries to QBs have left him a memory in the history of the NFL. And most importantly, even with aspects of a Lazor/Kelly offense incorporated into a pro style offense... Manziel has to prove he can also run a pro style offense.

 

[Surge]

He's the best around... Nothin's gonna ever keep him down...

 

[Hurl Bruce]

The Browns lucked out to be able to play the NFC south this year, otherwise, they'd be 5-7 or worse and Johnny would be starting anyway.

Right now, the Browns are eeking out victories with Hoyer middling. Hoyer isn't going to be here next year, so why not play Manziel?

 

[CBBI]

I know his year in Cleveland soured a lot of people on him and rightfully so, but throw out that crap 2004 season as well as the following year in Detroit (two non West Coast offenses that didn't suit his skill set at all) and Jeff Garcia was a pretty effective quarterback.

Just using his 6+ seasons worth of starts in the WCO in SF, Philly and TB, Garcia put up 143 touchdowns, 68 INTs and an 89.5 career QB rating which for that time period was quite good. Those numbers don't look all that eye popping compared to the ludicrous numbers of today, but NFL passing numbers didn't really start to go completely out of whack until the latter half of the 2000s.

Plus you have to factor in the 1900+ rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns in that same window for Garcia.

If you could tell me today Manziel would throw 140+ touchdowns and run for another 20+ over the next 6 seasons like Garcia did, I'd definitely take it.

 

[AZ_]

I know his year in Cleveland soured a lot of people on him and rightfully so, but throw out that crap 2004 season as well as the following year in Detroit (two non West Coast offenses that didn't suit his skill set at all) and Jeff Garcia was a pretty effective quarterback.

Just using his 6+ seasons worth of starts in the WCO in SF, Philly and TB, Garcia put up 143 touchdowns, 68 INTs and an 89.5 career QB rating which for that time period was quite good. Those numbers don't look all that eye popping compared to the ludicrous numbers of today, but NFL passing numbers didn't really start to go completely out of whack until the latter half of the 2000s.

Plus you have to factor in the 1900+ rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns in that same window for Garcia.

If you could tell me today Manziel would throw 140+ touchdowns and run for another 20+ over the next 6 seasons like Garcia did, I'd definitely take it.

100 percent agree

And I would say that Garcia is his ceiling, not his floor.

We all know my thoughts on Manziel, but I'm more confident in him now given what I've seen from Shanahan than I was.

I'm confident AT LEAST that he'll be put in a position to succeed, staying limited in his reads and getting him outside the pocket.

 

[Phills14]

Yea I think people get stuck on the Garcia thing because they think Cleveland Brown Garcia who was famous for his 0.0 QB rating in a game. SF 49er Garcia was pretty effective. I think Manziel has a lot of similar capabilities & limitations as SF Garcia. I also agree with b00bie in that Garcia is probably Manziel's ceiling rather than his floor.

 

[elcheato]

I wouldn't limit Manziel's ceiling to Garcia, simply because Garcia was never the dynamic runner that Manziel is. Maybe as a pure thrower combined with similar body types that's his ceiling, but overall, he can be better.

 

[Phills14]

If Manziel turns into SF Garcia then I'm pretty damn happy and he was well worth the 22nd pick. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be that good.

I think Manziel is going to give some sizzle here and there but provide a lot of bone head decisions and unnecessary bravado (throwing into coverage, running unnecessarily, etc) that will leave Browns fans screaming profanities at the TV too many times every game.

 

[AZ_]

I wouldn't limit Manziel's ceiling to Garcia, simply because Garcia was never the dynamic runner that Manziel is. Maybe as a pure thrower combined with similar body types that's his ceiling, but overall, he can be better.

For the added plus of running ability I think Garcia trumps Manziel in football IQ and the ability to understand defenses.

If Manziel ever learns how to do that, he can start in this league and be effective.