Just as Bad as the Record Indicates

[Jon]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

Telfair,Powe, Williams, and Eyenga were all Ferry pick ups. And of those other names the giant mistake is Danny Green. But he's a 'nice' player. Nothing special you can't find. And I don't think all those players were taken in to win games. They were bodies to fill out the roster. Grant truly understands that you have to be really bad before you are good.

Grant played a major role in talent evaluation for Ferry - so no reason to let him off the hook for the players that were already on the roster that he decided to keep/dump. He also had cap space to spend and chose not to do it.

What it comes down to is he shouldn't get a pass just because we had traded away our draft picks or that he was trying to tank. Every move and non-move effects the future of the franchise and it's hard to argue that tanking to the degree we did was necessary when Grant keeps snagging players who were expected to go 6 slots later than we took them.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

The beginning of the rebuild:

July 10, 2010
Cleveland signed forward LeBron James and traded him to Miami for two future first-round draft picks and two future second-round draft picks.

we also then told both Shaq and Z that we weren't signing them for the season, thus let go both of our centers

Monday, July 26 - the 4th key player from the prior season was sent out:
Minnesota traded guard Ramon Sessions and forward Ryan Hollins and a future second-round pick to Cleveland for guards Delonte West and Sebastian Telfair

Feb 24: 5th key player gone, as well as another rotation player
Cleveland traded guard Mo Williams and forward Jamario Moon to the L.A. Clippers for guard Baron Davis and a 2011 first-round draft pick. Waived forward Leon Powe.

After this trade all that was left were Andy, Jamison, Parker, Hickson and Boobie, and Hickson was on his way out. You don't turnover 67% of your roster if you aren't already rebuilding.

While obviously the rebuild started the day LeBron left, I don't think it's fair to say this is year three because, by and large, that first year doesn't really count. It was all about clearing the deck and acquiring assets, which Grant did very well.

From a realistic standpoint, we're in the midst of year two, as the drafting of Kyrie and Tristan was the start of our current young core.

I guess you could say it's year three of the rebuild but only year two of the new team, and I think the latter is the more important metric for success. After all, no one counts the years before Seattle drafted Durant as part of their rebuild. It starts when you draft your first marquee guy to build around, which for us was Kyrie Irving.

Grant played a major role in talent evaluation for Ferry - so no reason to let him off the hook for the players that were already on the roster that he decided to keep/dump. He also had cap space to spend and chose not to do it.

What it comes down to is he shouldn't get a pass just because we had traded away our draft picks or that he was trying to tank. Every move and non-move effects the future of the franchise and it's hard to argue that tanking to the degree we did was necessary when Grant keeps snagging players who were expected to go 6 slots later than we took them.

I agree with you on him not getting a pass, but I also believe it's far too early to pass judgment on any of Grant's picks in the current rebuild. We don't know how much decision-making power he had under Ferry (just that he played a role). We're also finally starting to see Thompson's true promise and Waiters and Zeller are rookies.

 

[Jon]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

After all, no one counts the years before Seattle drafted Durant as part of their rebuild.

Well, they wouldn't. Seattle still had their old core of Allen, Lewis, and Ridnour.

It starts when you draft your first marquee guy to build around, which for us was Kyrie Irving.

Nah. That's one reason rebuilds come up short. Ideally you'd like to have much of your young core in place before you obtain your marquee guy - or else hope that guy is slow developing.

Anyway, a GM is paid to do their job every season ... not just the seasons they get lucky in the draft.

I also believe it's far too early to pass judgment on any of Grant's picks in the current rebuild.

Judgement is a continuous process that's not confined to just draft picks. To be fair a GM should be given a decent amount of time to let his decisions play out, but with so much at stake for a franchise being fair is not exactly a high priority.

Dan Gilbert is in a unique position in that he should know why Chris Grant made the choices he did, and can judge those choices against Grant's expectations.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

Nah. That's one reason rebuilds come up short. Ideally you'd like to have much of your young core in place before you obtain your marquee guy - or else hope that guy is slow developing.

Anyway, a GM is paid to do their job every season ... not just the seasons they get lucky in the draft.

It's almost impossible to get your young core together before you have a marquee guy because, if you have a good young core, you're probably not going to suck enough to win the lottery.

Plus, if you don't have a marquee guy, what exactly are you building? A perennial first round playoff exit team?

 

[KI4MVP]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

Howard 4th season: 52 wins
Durant's 3rd season: 50 wins
CP3 3rd season: 56 wins
Derek Rose 3rd season: 62 wins
LeBron 3rd season: 50 wins
Wade 2nd season: 59 wins
Carmelo 2nd season: 49 wins

Most or all of those teams had better records in year two than we are on track for.

We have had 3 top 4 picks plus another first round pick and have two first round picks next year and enough cap space to sign or trade for two max players in the next two years. If we aren't a strong playoff team next year, something has clearly gone wrong.

 

[Jon]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

It's almost impossible to get your young core together before you have a marquee guy because, if you have a good young core, you're probably not going to suck enough to win the lottery.

A young core is not likely to win a lot of games due to inexperience. Tristan, Dion, and Tyler aren't going to drag the Cavs out of the lottery any time soon if ever.

Your franchise player, otoh, is going to improve your win total and decrease your draft position - as soon as he starts playing like such.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

Howard 4th season: 52 wins
Durant's 3rd season: 50 wins
CP3 3rd season: 56 wins
Derek Rose 3rd season: 62 wins
LeBron 3rd season: 50 wins
Wade 2nd season: 59 wins
Carmelo 2nd season: 49 wins

Most or all of those teams had better records in year two than we are on track for.

We have had 3 top 4 picks plus another first round pick and have two first round picks next year and enough cap space to sign or trade for two max players in the next two years. If we aren't a strong playoff team next year, something has clearly gone wrong.

I'm not sure what you expect to be done with those numbers. We're in the midst of Kyrie's second season, so all the third season win numbers are totally meaningless and will remain that way until the end of next year. Even the second season win numbers at the bottom can be misleading. For example, Miami traded for Shaq (among others) and got one of his last prime years out of him next to Wade, which totally distorts the win number.

Plus, our team is actively tanking this year (Grant even admitted as much in an interview) rather than making moves to win a lot of games now. If we had made a big trade or two in an effort to win right away and were sitting at 7 wins, I'd understand being pissed. I just don't really get the logic of being pissed that a team where half the key rotation guys are 22 or under with less than two years of NBA experience (and in a few cases less than one) and not much ni the way of depth is losing games.

The main factor to consider is how we're losing games. Two years ago this team was utterly unwatchable before the Baron Davis trade. Afterward, we were watchable but still bad. Last year, we got blown out quite often. Sure, we won some good games, but by and large the team was pretty awful. Kyrie was exciting to watch, but everyone around him...not so much. This year, most of our losses have been close. We've gotten destroyed a few times, but by and large we keep it pretty competitive and our team is frequently enjoyable to watch. The natural evolution of this next year is that this team will start winning a lot of those close games and our record will, as a result, greatly improve.

If you don't see the progress being made there, I don't really know what else to tell you.

A young core is not likely to win a lot of games due to inexperience. Tristan, Dion, and Tyler aren't going to drag the Cavs out of the lottery any time soon if ever.

Your franchise player, otoh, is going to improve your win total and decrease your draft position - as soon as he starts playing like such.

As I stated above, though, until you have a franchise guy, you really have no idea what you're building.

Aside from that, the Cavs' situation was kind of unique. We went from being the best team in the NBA to the worst over the course of one off-season. We had almost no assets of any value and a bunch of bad veteran contracts on our books. We had zero chance to start building a young core because Ferry traded away all of our assets in a misguided attempt to make LeBron happy by surrounding him with veteran re-treads. I mean, Kyrie was literally our first post-LeBron draft pick.

 

[Jon]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

The main factor to consider is how we're losing games. Two years ago this team was utterly unwatchable before the Baron Davis trade. Afterward, we were watchable but still bad. Last year, we got blown out quite often. Sure, we won some good games, but by and large the team was pretty awful. Kyrie was exciting to watch, but everyone around him...not so much. This year, most of our losses have been close. We've gotten destroyed a few times, but by and large we keep it pretty competitive and our team is frequently enjoyable to watch. The natural evolution of this next year is that this team will start winning a lot of those close games and our record will, as a result, greatly improve.

There were times we were competitive as well the previous two seasons, but we still have little depth and our "watchability" will be put in doubt again if we suffer further injuries or the team can't sustain the level of effort that Scott demands.

If you don't see the progress being made there, I don't really know what else to tell you.

There really isn't much tangible progress. Understand the team was 24th in offense last season, and is 27th right now. We were 26th on defense last year, and we're currently 25th. Certainly we can hope that as our young players gain experience and improve and as we fill out the roster with something other than crap, that our record will be greatly improved. It's reasonable to expect that, but that doesn't mean its in the bag.

I mean, Kyrie was literally our first post-LeBron draft pick.

Which gets to my point ... that you don't need draft picks to start rebuilding. Every decision plays a role - for better or worse. To be so focused on draft picks is to miss out on all the other things Chris Grant has done or could be doing.

 

[KI4MVP]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

I realize that my post made the case that next year is the key season. A 50ish win season next year with space for a max free agent in 2014 puts us in great shape. Another 20ish win season next year is a real problem.

And last year we were in playoff contention at the all star break. It took a major tank job to close the season to make our record as bad as it was. This year is a step forward in that we have two more potential long term pieces who show promise, it is thus far regression in our ability to win games. We are on track for 18 wins in an 82 game season when last year we won 22 game in a 66 game season.

There are two disappointing things for me

- we are completely wasting this spectacular season Andy is having.

- Kyrie isn't showing the progression I expected. I really thought he's build off of what he learned last year and really elevate his game. His clutch play is down substantially and his PER is down slightly. I suspect part of the issue is we replaced two veterans with two rookies on a team that was already sorely lacking in veterans. Another problem is he's yet to play with a full NBA caliber roster.

The other thing I see is it is possible to shorten a rebuild without compromising it. Future assets can be moved for established players. We took a stab at Bynum, which would have transformed our outlook on the season. Something else may develop as the season progresses. It would be nice to have a few more wins right now in case something does develop. Because teams have shown that with one or two moves, you can go from a building team to a contender pretty quickly.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

There were times we were competitive as well the previous two seasons, but we still have little depth and our "watchability" will be put in doubt again if we suffer further injuries or the team can't sustain the level of effort that Scott demands.

There were times we were competitive the past two seasons, but it was rarely on a night-in, night-out basis as it has mostly been this year even with our array of injuries.

There really isn't much tangible progress. Understand the team was 24th in offense last season, and is 27th right now. We were 26th on defense last year, and we're currently 25th. Certainly we can hope that as our young players gain experience and improve and as we fill out the roster with something other than crap, that our record will be greatly improved. It's reasonable to expect that, but that doesn't mean its in the bag.

A lot of that can simply be attributed to the team's youth and total lack of experience. Last year we had veterans on our roster. This year, we largely have rookies and sophomores taking the minutes. We're one of the youngest teams in the NBA, and with youth comes losing and inconsistency.

Which gets to my point ... that you don't need draft picks to start rebuilding. Every decision plays a role - for better or worse. To be so focused on draft picks is to miss out on all the other things Chris Grant has done or could be doing.

That's true. You don't. But you do need cap space or assets. The year after LeBron left, we had no cap space and minimal assets, which meant little flexibility for our GM. Grant spent the first two years clearing the books and avoiding overpaying for free agents, both of which were the type of moves you'd expect any intelligent GM to make. Now, going into this summer, we have a ton of cap space and plenty of assets. We'll have even more assets after this year's draft.

Whether or not you agree with his draft picks, Grant has undoubtedly set the team up to make moves should they find one they like.

 

[AuxiliaryPie]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

Howard 4th season: 52 wins
Durant's 3rd season: 50 wins
CP3 3rd season: 56 wins
Derek Rose 3rd season: 62 wins
LeBron 3rd season: 50 wins
Wade 2nd season: 59 wins
Carmelo 2nd season: 49 wins

Most or all of those teams had better records in year two than we are on track for.

We have had 3 top 4 picks plus another first round pick and have two first round picks next year and enough cap space to sign or trade for two max players in the next two years. If we aren't a strong playoff team next year, something has clearly gone wrong.

and how many of those teams won a championship? exactly. maybe if they tanked like we did, they could have drafted one or two more key pieces. The game is always changing and no situation is the same, we just have to wait and see how we pan out

 

[KI4MVP]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

and how many of those teams won a championship? exactly. maybe if they tanked like we did, they could have drafted one or two more key pieces. The game is always changing and no situation is the same, we just have to wait and see how we pan out

6 teams

1 won championship
3 made finals
a 4th was a finals favorite before a blown out knee
1 fell apart from injuries to their stars
1 traded their superstar

5 clear contenders out of 7 teams.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

6 teams

1 won championship
3 made finals
a 4th was a finals favorite before a blown out knee
1 fell apart from injuries to their stars
1 traded their superstar

5 clear contenders out of 7 teams.

It's also interesting that, of those teams you listed, four of those guys changed teams because the teams they were drafted two went into "win now" mode too soon, made bad decisions in free agency, and just didn't draft enough players to help. You could really make the same argument about Rose, who is stuck on a team that I doubt will ever win a championship. The only difference with Rose is that he doesn't seem like the type to force a trade.

And Durant, who signed a long-term extension with his team, is on a team that was built almost entirely through the draft.

 

[Jon]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

There were times we were competitive the past two seasons, but it was rarely on a night-in, night-out basis as it has mostly been this year even with our array of injuries.

Nah, there were stretches the previous two seasons we played around .500 ball and the tankers would get real nervous. What we've done this year is actually less impressive because we've been unable to close tight games. Opponents have been able to get what they want from us when they need it - so any earlier success is tainted by the likelihood that there just wasn't any reason to take us seriously.

But you do need cap space or assets. The year after LeBron left, we had no cap space and minimal assets, which meant little flexibility for our GM. Grant spent the first two years clearing the books and avoiding overpaying for free agents, both of which were the type of moves you'd expect any intelligent GM to make. Now, going into this summer, we have a ton of cap space and plenty of assets. We'll have even more assets after this year's draft.

We've always had some cap space, Grant just refused to use any of it on anything above a min contract player until this off-season when we signed CJ Miles. It's hard to judge this sort of thing because we don't know what deals Grant could have made, but that doesn't mean we should excuse him. As for our assets, clearly Grant did a bang up job with Mo Williams and Jamario Moon. ... Not so hot with JJ.

Yes, we're positioned well to make a move with our vast cap space, but we'll just have to see what Grant can do with it. It's even harder to judge him on moves he hasn't yet made.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Re: Not as Bad as the Record Indicates

We've always had some cap space, Grant just refused to use any of it on anything above a min contract player until this off-season when we signed CJ Miles. It's hard to judge this sort of thing because we don't know what deals Grant could have made, but that doesn't mean we should excuse him. As for our assets, clearly Grant did a bang up job with Mo Williams and Jamario Moon. ... Not so hot with JJ.

Yes, we're positioned well to make a move with our vast cap space, but we'll just have to see what Grant can do with it. It's even harder to judge him on moves he hasn't yet made.

Pretty sure we were over the cap the summer LeBron left. Granted, we had a big trade exception that we never used, but given the quality of guys that were available, I can't really blame Grant for not using it. Getting Al Jefferson wasn't going to make our team anything other than a bit better, and probably would have wrecked the rebuild because of it.

Generally speaking, I agree with our team's philosophy on cap space. I don't think big salaries should be wasted on guys who aren't stars, and Grant has been incredibly patient when it comes to not overpaying for decent players (Batum, anyone?). Since we can't judge him on the moves he hasn't made, all we can do is judge him on those he has (more positive than negative imo) and how he has set up this team for potential future moves. He has passed both of those tests. His drafting is the real question mark, and unfortunately it's much too early to judge him on that.