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Moneyball Comes to Cleveland

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Explain the 4th down, expected points, and timeout management to me
4th Downs and expected points are sort of tied together. There are people way better at explaining it than myself such as Brian Burke:

http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

For example, kicking a FG inside in the 5 is almost always the wrong mantra. By "taking the points" you're completely ignoring that your Expected points inside the 5 are closer to 5 points vs something like 2.9 for a FG. You're also ignoring the historical data of points and field position most likely to occur by your opponents starting within their own 5-10 yard line should you fail to convert.

Punting on 4th down is linked back to the days of when teams would be lucky to score 1-2 times a game and hasn't really adjusted for modern offenses. By not being more aggressive on 4th Downs you're seeing a lot of potential points left on the board.

There are definitely a lot of resources out there but Brian Burke's article above is a good crash course on the topic.
 
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While I agree with Eva1)If Sashi had to convince Hue to buy into their process, that should have been a warning sign. Sashi hired Hue, so he cannot use Hue as not his idea.

I don't believe this to be accurate.

Haslam all but confirmed he was the one who hired Hue when he announced right afterward the initial press conference (or maybe it was during the initial press conference, don't totally remember) that Hue reported into Jimmy himself and not Sashi.
 
I don't believe this to be accurate.

Haslam all but confirmed he was the one who hired Hue when he announced right afterward the initial press conference (or maybe it was during the initial press conference, don't totally remember) that Hue reported into Jimmy himself and not Sashi.

Pluto's account of the hire has Sashi and DePodesta as part of the search team and process.

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2016/01/the_inside_story_of_how_the_cl_3.html

He also wrote, "We'll see if the Browns' unique structure, with non-football people occupying top management positions, holds up under the weight of the tough decisions ahead"

It clearly has not held up well. With each faction reporting directly to the owner, the crushing pressure of losing has control completely obliterated the good feelings everyone felt when Hue was hired.
 
My worst nightmare is that the FO gets canned and a "football mind" comes in and finds a QB. They'll instantly be better because of this and all the talent this team brought in over the last 18 months will be ignored because: FOOTBALL GUYS KNOW ALL!

Couldn't agree more. It's those "football minds" that routinely devalue draft picks in future years (because they may not even be around then) and overpay in trade-ups to get guys the entire rest of the leagues believes are not worthwhile.

I am pleased with the rebuild overall, with the big "miss" being at QB, which was supposed to be Hue's area of expertise. I don't want to go back to the pre-Sashi era of traditional NFL wasting of picks.

We have a systemic draft advantage, and just need a QB (for which the FO has accumulated plenty of assets) to really have this turned around.
 
Honeslty WGAF if we don't have a QB this year. We were never going to win THIS YEAR anyways. If we go into year 3 without the QB of the future on the roster, its time to get impatient. Majority were fine without taking a QB high and Kizer's value during the draft.
 
Honeslty WGAF if we don't have a QB this year. We were never going to win THIS YEAR anyways. If we go into year 3 without the QB of the future on the roster, its time to get impatient. Majority were fine without taking a QB high and Kizer's value during the draft.
The issue I have is that once you took Kizer at #52, you needed to give him a realistic shot to develop and play this game. You knew you'd need to evaluate him. How the hell can we tell when he's out there for an extremely penalized team, unorganized personnel, no NFL receiving threats, and no running game behind him whatsoever? Not all of this is on Kizer. In fact, most of it isn't.

They should've done a better job of acquiring a weapon or two in free agency so they could at least evaluate the player.
 
The issue I have is that once you took Kizer at #52, you needed to give him a realistic shot to develop and play this game. You knew you'd need to evaluate him. How the hell can we tell when he's out there for an extremely penalized team, unorganized personnel, no NFL receiving threats, and no running game behind him whatsoever? Not all of this is on Kizer. In fact, most of it isn't.

They should've done a better job of acquiring a weapon or two in free agency so they could at least evaluate the player.

Outside of Duke they have 0 playmakers for Kizer. Hypothetically if Gordon comes back, he will be better then any receiver on the Browns team. Outside of Gordon, Which of these WR's on the Browns would be on another NFL team if they cut them all today.


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Outside of Duke they have 0 playmakers for Kizer. Hypothetically if Gordon comes back, he will be better then any receiver on the Browns team. Outside of Gordon, Which of these WR's on the Browns would be on another NFL team if they cut them all today.


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And don't forget Coleman coming back. It's not a secret as to why Kizer looked his best in game one against the Steelers. He had a weapon. One weapon.

As low as we are on this team, if we have Gordon and Coleman on the outside the last 4-5 games, you might see enough to get excited on Kizer's potential. Especially with DeValve and Njoku developing as the year progresses.

But yes, the only receiver on our current active roster who would be on any other NFL roster is Britt. And even that may not be true if he played like he has for us this season.
 
The issue I have is that once you took Kizer at #52, you needed to give him a realistic shot to develop and play this game. You knew you'd need to evaluate him. How the hell can we tell when he's out there for an extremely penalized team, unorganized personnel, no NFL receiving threats, and no running game behind him whatsoever? Not all of this is on Kizer. In fact, most of it isn't.

They should've done a better job of acquiring a weapon or two in free agency so they could at least evaluate the player.

Well let’s hold up on this hindsight take...

The Browns invested heavily in the Oline, many thought Crow has taken the leap last year, the assumed Corey Coleman would step up (and he did until his hand was broken), and yes they swung and missed on Britt, but they had spent big money on a FA WR and traded for a deep threat WR (Coates). Couple that with a 1st rd pick spent on TE, and it’s easy to see why they thought they were giving him weapons.

Now, the Oline has just been OK, Crow sucks, Britt sucks, Coates sucks, and CoCo got injured. That’s not what anyone foresaw.
 
Honeslty WGAF if we don't have a QB this year. We were never going to win THIS YEAR anyways. If we go into year 19 without the QB of the future on the roster, its time to get impatient. Majority were fine without taking a QB high and Kizer's value during the draft.

Fixed. I'm fucking impatient. I don't know how we can try to rationalize the futility of the Brown's front office anymore. It doesn't matter who wears the suit. This franchise is fucking cursed.
 
Fixed. I'm fucking impatient. I don't know how we can try to rationalize the futility of the Brown's front office anymore. It doesn't matter who wears the suit. This franchise is fucking cursed.

Sashi and Berry are doing a much better job than “football guys” in Farmer, Holmgren, and Mangini. Wentz was hardly a slam dunk or they would have taken him. For all we know they red flagged Watson and nailed that trade down. My main gripe is not having a vet bridge, but maybe they thought brock was that guy and Hue was too enamoured with DeShone. The AJ fuck up is embarrassing but I’m glad they messed it up.

Let’s give them 6 more months to see what they do with this offseason and treasure trove of draft capital.
 
I don't believe this to be accurate.

Haslam all but confirmed he was the one who hired Hue when he announced right afterward the initial press conference (or maybe it was during the initial press conference, don't totally remember) that Hue reported into Jimmy himself and not Sashi.

Sashi worked with the consultation group and the Haslam family when Hue was hired, however he was not the GM at the time. His role was more of a liaison within his former role. Sashi wasn't the first choice to spearhead the front office, and his role is supposed to be a conduit and communication hub for all the moving parts within the front office.

I think His is safe for another season, my opinion looking at what's in front of me. They just got heat from ownership to overpay for McCarron.

I'll say this, the Haslam family might be looking to the corporate world to do business a new way, but I'm sure all these checks and balances get in the way of old school teams hammering out a deal. It's much easier for Belichick to just call John Lynch and get the Jimmy G deal done in one phone call than having Sashi get buy-in from all the Browns moving parts. There are negatives with a corporate setup.
 
Sashi worked with the consultation group and the Haslam family when Hue was hired, however he was not the GM at the time. His role was more of a liaison within his former role. Sashi wasn't the first choice to spearhead the front office, and his role is supposed to be a conduit and communication hub for all the moving parts within the front office.

I think His is safe for another season, my opinion looking at what's in front of me. They just got heat from ownership to overpay for McCarron.

I'll say this, the Haslam family might be looking to the corporate world to do business a new way, but I'm sure all these checks and balances get in the way of old school teams hammering out a deal. It's much easier for Belichick to just call John Lynch and get the Jimmy G deal done in one phone call than having Sashi get buy-in from all the Browns moving parts. There are negatives with a corporate setup.

If I'm Haslam, I make it clear to both Hue and Sashi that if they get another year together that they are tied together. It's go forward as a whole or clean house, no in between. Get on the same page about players, argue internally about what you want and don't take it to the press. Maybe even let Hue pick the 53 man roster but force him to give up playcalling and hire a real OC in the process.
 
Can't wait for Moneyball to depart Cleveland
 

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