North/South Korea reach agreement (North Korea threatens United States pg. 5)

[Ohio]

This seems like a whole lot of nothing.

 

[Simon]

This seems like a whole lot of nothing.

Pretty much how I feel too. I just don't think anyone really cares about it until North Korea actually does something.

 

[Sebastian]

Talks resume later tonight.



Also people are saying South Korea is bringing their tanks to the border along with North Korea. Not sure how true that is....

In the event of alerts units advance to forward ready positions. Nothing out of the ordinary for the units stationed near the DMZ. Speaking of tanks, this should cast some light on what type of fight a dust-up between the Norks and the ROK army would be like:

DPRK: 4,700 tanks. 90% are T-55s or T-62 export models. Those tanks are over 60 years old and many are not serviceable.
ROK: 2,400 tanks. 65% are K1 or K2 which are essentially M1A1 and M1A2 with minor modifications for Korean use.

The situation in the air is just as bad. The DPRK Peoples' Air Force pilots receive only about 20 flying hours a year in their very old planes. The vast majority of their planes are cheap Chinese copies of obsolescent Soviet aircraft.

DPRK: 35 MiG-29s*, 106 MiG-17s (1952), 97 MiG-19s (1955), 120 MiG-21s (1958).
ROK: 130 F-15s, 170 F-16s, 175 F-5s.

So, essentially, the North Korean military is considerably less potent than Saddam Hussein's in 1991 before Desert Storm. The Norks have fewer (and much older) tanks and fewer, less advanced fighters than the Iraqis had. They would be absolutely whipped**.

I'd be more concerned if they started evacuating people from some of the Seoul suburbs and started moving reserve divisions north to the DMZ. An article with a former ROK officer on the likelihood of war:

http://www.nknews.org/2015/08/chanc...ow-says-former-officer-from-rok-army-command/

Also, if anyone is in a wonkish mood, here is an Rand Corporation analysis of ROK Army's new restructuring of their order of battle. ROK had to reduce the army a good deal due to demographic decline in the annual number of young men reaching draft age. Their response is to slash the number of divisions but beef-up their organic strength. The new ROK mechanized and infantry divisions have a lot of punch. The division guarding Seoul is ostensibly a mechanized infantry unit but has as many tanks (250+) as an armored division and then some.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/occasional_papers/2006/RAND_OP165.pdf

* Comparable in its newest model with the F-15s. DPRK possess older models with obsolete electronics.
**But they do have a few nukes.

 

[Simon]

If reports on Twitter are true, North Korea deployed about 50 submarines for battle and still preparing for war.

Still all fake threats until they actually do something which I don't think they will....

 

[Phills14]

I don't think there is any doubt that North Korea would be absolutely wiped off the face of the Earth if a battle lasted longer than 2 hours. The threat from N Korea is and always has been their quick surprised attack, nuclear or non nuclear, that could devastate some unsuspecting civilian population in S Korea.

The ancillary threat is the North's alliance with China. If the North wanted war with S Korea which means war with the USA, does that pull China into the war and pit 2 super powers against each other?

 

[Simon]

 

[Kyrieville]

I don't think there is any doubt that North Korea would be absolutely wiped off the face of the Earth if a battle lasted longer than 2 hours. The threat from N Korea is and always has been their quick surprised attack, nuclear or non nuclear, that could devastate some unsuspecting civilian population in S Korea.

The ancillary threat is the North's alliance with China. If the North wanted war with S Korea which means war with the USA, does that pull China into the war and pit 2 super powers against each other?

I don't think China would get involved, unless it was to help take out the regime in North Korea. They got involved 60 years ago because they were afraid that Beijing was next, but they know the US would not attack them now. Also, China's economy would collapse if they ever declared war on the US.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Yeah, that ROK official explanation for why it took so long to return fire is b.s. counter-mortar radar doesn't take an hour. But the leadership is keeping a tight rein so as to avoid escalation, so I really can't blame them for preferring a cautious response.

 

[Simon]

I don't think China would get involved, unless it was to help take out the regime in North Korea. They got involved 60 years ago because they were afraid that Beijing was next, but they know the US would not attack them now. Also, China's economy would collapse if they ever declared war on the US.

I think China would, people are saying China is sending their tanks over to the North/South Korea border.

Not sure how true, but you never know.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I don't think there is any doubt that North Korea would be absolutely wiped off the face of the Earth if a battle lasted longer than 2 hours.

How exactly would that happen? And who would be the ones "wiping NK off the face of the Earth" in two hours?

Because a nuclear attack on NK would result in significant fallout over China, South Korea, and Japan.

ETA: plus, the fact that NK now has nukes essentially takes actual conquest of the country off the table anyway. Best hope is that an unsuccessful NK attack would lead to internal instability and a coup.

 

[Simon]

New on Twitter not sure if true....

- China has sent attack helicopters to the border of North Korea.
- China has also sent troops to the border.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

New on Twitter not sure if true....

- China has sent attack helicopters to the border of North Korea.
- China has also sent troops to the border.

Also possible that all this stuff could be a prelude to a coup.

 

[Simon]

Seems like a credible news source, so I'll put this here....

 

[Sebastian]

New on Twitter not sure if true....

- China has sent attack helicopters to the border of North Korea.
- China has also sent troops to the border.

SOP for China every time there is a flare up. In the event of an actual conflict they are looking to keep a flood of refugees out or elements of the The DPRK People's Army from trying to flee the country.

 

[Sebastian]

Yeah, that ROK official explanation for why it took so long to return fire is b.s. counter-mortar radar doesn't take an hour. But the leadership is keeping a tight rein so as to avoid escalation, so I really can't blame them for preferring a cautious response.

We needed GO authorization for certain counter-fire situations. Better believe that request for counter-battery goes all the way to President Pak.