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Post All-Star Predictions

Discussion in 'Cavs Talk' started by SOA, Feb 26, 2012.

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Number of Post All-Star wins

  1. Less than 5 - tanking in full force

    2.5%
  2. 6-10 - more injuries

    17.7%
  3. 11-14 - just about right?

    65.8%
  4. 15-19 - exceeding expectations

    12.7%
  5. 20-25 -playing way above their heads

    1.3%
  1. SOA

    SOA Banned

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    chime in on the number of wins post-All Star

    Tue, Feb 28 vs Boston - Loss
    Wed, Feb 29 @ NY Knicks - Loss
    Fri, Mar 2 vs Chicago - Loss
    Sat, Mar 3 @ Washington - Loss
    Mon, Mar 5 vs Utah
    - Loss
    Wed, Mar 7 @ Denver - Win
    Fri, Mar 9 @ Oklahoma City - Win
    Sun, Mar 11 vs Houston - Win
    Tue, Mar 13 vs Toronto
    Wed, Mar 14 @ Milwaukee

    Sun, Mar 18 vs Atlanta
    Mon, Mar 19 @ New Jersey
    Wed, Mar 21 @ Atlanta
    Fri, Mar 23 @ Orlando
    Sun, Mar 25 vs Phoenix
    Tue, Mar 27 @ Philadelphia
    Wed, Mar 28 vs Detroit
    Fri, Mar 30 vs Milwaukee

    Sat, Mar 31 @ NY Knicks
    Tue, Apr 3 vs San Antonio
    Wed, Apr 4 @ Milwaukee
    Fri, Apr 6 @ Toronto
    Sun, Apr 8 @ New Jersey
    Tue, Apr 10 vs Charlotte
    Wed, Apr 11 vs Indiana

    Fri, Apr 13 @ Indiana
    Sat, Apr 14 @ Washington
    Sun, Apr 15 vs Orlando
    Tue, Apr 17 @ Detroit
    Wed, Apr 18 vs Philadelphia
    Fri, Apr 20 vs NY Knicks
    Sun, Apr 22 @ San Antonio
    Mon, Apr 23 @ Memphis
    Wed, Apr 25 vs Washington
    Thu, Apr 26 @ Chicago



    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1073947-final-win-loss-projections-for-every-nba-team-after-the-all-star-game/page/11

    Cleveland Cavaliers

    Current Record: 13-18

    Games Remaining: 35

    Final Prediction: 26-40, 10th in Eastern Conference

    The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown improvement but still have work to do before making it back to the playoffs.

    A little bit of luck in the draft order would give them another young player to add to rookies Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson.

    It may not be by a lot, but the Cavaliers are headed in a much better direction as they dig out of the hole left for them by LeBron James.
     
  2. Mdog1

    Mdog1 NBA Starter

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    I bolded the game I think we for sure win, and I think we will win at least one Washington game, but they are all the second night of a b2b so that is why I am not sure we will win them. I think Orlando breaks down and trades Howard meaning their team will be terrible. There will be other games we win, we won't just win 6 games the rest of the season unless Kyrie gets injured. I could see us winning multiple games at the end of the year if the seeding is set as teams may decide to rest their starters. My overall prediction is 22 wins.
     
  3. Jon

    Jon ~

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    I count 14 or so winnable games but when taking back to backs in to account, there may be only 8 or so, so assuming we don't strip the team clean I'll assume we'll continue to beat some teams we shouldn't beat and take the high side (11-14).
     
  4. QuadrupleDouble

    QuadrupleDouble All-Star

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    I hope we're not dealing with the same roster soon so we will end up better in the lottery and looking forward. Really want to see Jamison/Sessions gone
     
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  5. Czvosec

    Czvosec All-Star

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    Honestly, this team has an outside shot at 8 straight losses (4 in 5 followed by 4 tough games). Lose all 8, and they're back in business. Win 3-4, say hello to a double digit pick.
     
  6. FlatulenciaRoar

    FlatulenciaRoar Dazed and Confused

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    It'll be interesting to see how many RCFr's vote for 5 or less because that's what it'll take to put us in the running for a top 5 pick against Char, Wash, NJ, NO. Does anyone really think that talented, hardworking, competitive guys like Kyrie, TT, Gee along with the role players we have on the squad would really be a lot worse than those bottom feeders even without Sessions, AJ, and Andy? That doesn't even take into account any contributors we might get back along with draft picks.
     
  7. tristan+kyrie=$

    tristan+kyrie=$ In the Rotation

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    I say 10 wins for the Cavaliers
     
  8. D-Wreck

    D-Wreck Valuable Trading Chip

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    • Like Like x 2
  9. wuck

    wuck Hustling on the inside Staff Member

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    I look at the schedule and only see BTD and ATD. 10 before-trade-deadline games, 25 after-trade-deadline games. :chuckles:
     
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  10. Free Agency God

    Free Agency God Birthing All-Stars

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    I look at the schedule and only see WAVS and PAVS. 10 With Antawn Varejao Sessions and 25 Post Antawn Varejao Sessions. I can't wait for PAVS! :)
     
  11. QuadrupleDouble

    QuadrupleDouble All-Star

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    I still want to keep Andy. I know he's getting older and whatever, but you always need talented big men and I'm not sure we ever replace his value. Now if it's a homerun deal that we can't turn down, well we can't turn it down. I'd rather keep him until the wheels fall off
     
  12. JAY1977

    JAY1977 inspired to play ball

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    Brutal schedule to finish the season but the team has already beat a couple of above .500 teams so I expect a few more surprise wins and a few more dissapointments ( ala Bobcats ). 11-14 sounds about right.
     
  13. Cratylus

    Cratylus Brunette Connoisseur

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    I'm going with 12 wins after the break.
     
  14. FlatulenciaRoar

    FlatulenciaRoar Dazed and Confused

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    Hollinger's predictions appear to have a bias. With very few exeptions, the teams currently with winning records play worse for the rest of the season, and the losing teams play better. Some dramatically better, e.g. NO goes from .214 to .318. The teams we would be competing against for that 5th spot ALL play better in the projections. This seems highly unlikely.

    However if one projects based on current percentages, if we win 10 more games our winning percentage would be .348. Assuming the other teams continue to win at their current rate that would put us 8th. If we won 6 games we would squeak into 5th behind Toronto. To have some insurance against the likelyhood of a team moving up in the lottery winning 5 games would move us into 4th.

    BTW, I voted 11-14 and I assumed there will be some player movement.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2012
  15. D-Wreck

    D-Wreck Valuable Trading Chip

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    The odds are just based off of statistical projections.

    The Hornets are 4-6 in their last 10 and played the second toughest schedule in the first half. It would stand to reason that they will play better moving forward.

    The Kings have played only 12 one games compared to 21 on the road. With such a home heavy schedule remaining, I'd think they too would improve.

    The Nets and Bucks have also played tougher first half schedules than most and have also played a few more road games that home games so far.

    That's just some of the teams, but there are valid reasons as to why they're projected to improve.
     
  16. KI4MVP

    KI4MVP formerly LJ4MVP

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    The hornets are a combination of their recent improved record (.400 over the last 10) and because they've played the 2nd hardest schedule in the league thus far. We're projected at 27 wins, which is 14 more. 30 wins is the projected 8 seed (17 more) while 21 wins (8 more) is tied for 3rd worst record in the league. Also the range of 24 to 28 wins is only projected to make a 1 spot difference in draft position (7 vs 8) and may not make any difference at all if the suns trade Nash.

    The trade deadline will determine a lot. If we do nothing more than move Sessions for a pick and don't have any players break out from where we stand now, 24-28 seems a reasonable range. If we either pick up talent and/or have a player break out, we may get that 8th seed. Andy returning in the projected timeframe vs getting traded also will impact the win total.

    I don't think the compressed schedule matters too much in terms of endurance unless injuries pile up because we're a young team. The older teams will feel it more, even if they've already played more games, thus have fewer left. It's already impacting the celtics, and they've only played 1 more game than us. Where it hurts us is the lack of practice time to work on things that are happening in the games.
     
  17. Jon

    Jon ~

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    I believe Hollinger adapted his projection to look more like a Power Ranking by emphasizing recent results in his equation.

    If you want to to look at some projections that don't appear to include that as a factor, take a look at teamrankings.com:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/
     
  18. FlatulenciaRoar

    FlatulenciaRoar Dazed and Confused

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    These projections would also put us in 8th with 10 wins. Guess we'll just have to wait a few months and see how reality pans out. :)
     
  19. Pavlovic3Ball

    Pavlovic3Ball BARNES BRIGADE

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    I pray they trade Sessions so we an at least have two picks in the draft. After having two 1st rounders last season, I have become greedy.
     
  20. FlatulenciaRoar

    FlatulenciaRoar Dazed and Confused

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    If you're confident about your analysis how about a bet?

    I'll bet a US$25 contribution to RCF that 10 more wins this season would not get us the 5th or worse record. That is to say that at the end of the season there will be 5 or more teams other than the Cavs with a winning percentage of less than .348. In the event that there are 4 teams below .348 and one with a record of 23-43 (.34848...), I'll concede the bet.

    Bet payable with 1 week of the end of the season.

    Hopefully that's clear enough.

    Will you take the bet? :pray:
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2012

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