Scottish Referendum

[natedagg]

What: Scotland votes on Thursday to stay in the UK ("no" vote) or to become independent ("yes" vote). The race is quite close, and it appears that the "no" votes are in the lead.

Why care: Tremendous consequences, including the potential for other referendums around the world. There's really too much to discuss, but either way, a "yes" vote will likely rock stock markets as well.

Want to know more? I found this link that I liked with a timeline: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...endum-cameron-returns-to-scotland-to-campaign

Nate's take: The vote will be close, but I can't see the average citizen rocking the status quo and voting "yes", although the unemployed/underemployed are typically "yes" voters. I don't know enough to make any educated comments, which is why I created the thread.

 

[Phills14]

I was in Scotland this summer and from talking to a fair amount of Scots about it, it seemed like most people are unsure of what happens if they break away from the UK. Where will the money come from to support the government? Where will the leadership come from? They have a lot of grand ideas but a lot of people are nervous because they know those are just ideas and not necessarily what will happen if they break away.

 

[theSTEREO.]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YkLPxQp_y0

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'm hoping they vote yes, but even then, there are so many uncertainties that I could see another vote being taken to approve of the specific independence measures, and having that vote fail for a true clusterfuck.

The Scots lean way left compared to England, so one effect of a yes vote would be a big boost to the Tories/Conservatives.

 

[Adam]

Mr Oliver had a pretty good take on it. I will show it to my senior tutor group on thursday.

i would bet it will be about 53% to the NO campaign, but that will be because they've promised them the third option of huge devolution in the last few days. Most people in england dont seem that bothered, they are only 8% of the population, although as a lefty they are vital if we ever stand a chance of getting rid of that posh bastard david cameron.

Unfortunately for scotland although they have only been in the UK for 300 years, they are the most significant 300 years in terms of development and infrastructure and so they are not really viable as an independent country, they dont have the oil they think they have, they are too reliant on british military for employment (especially the trident)

also Alex Salmond might be the most irritating politician in the UK right now, and that is saying something

 

[natedagg]

^Adam -

Can you explain this "devolution" concept? I have heard the word tossed around, but don't quite get it. Is devolution = we will make changes in your favor and give you more political power if you vote "no"?

 

[Adam]

It's just about allowing more legislative power to the Scottish parliament. It's very similar to state and federal at the moment with education and health being key devolved areas at the moment. I think they will probably end up with police and maybe a 20 year plan to remove trident.

 

[natedagg]

9/16 blog @ 6:32 EST: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...reaction-to-the-cameronmilibandclegg-vow-live

 

[natedagg]

This is a total score: BBC aggregating many polls and graphing the results over time. http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

I highly recommend reading the Methodology section too, if only to give yourself an understanding of the different ways that polls are being conducted. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27585550

Now, back to the poll results. The quick-and-dirty is that this race has gotten closer, so "yes" votes are trending upward. So here's the last 2 polls from each survey, with % of no/yes/undecided (where's rabman's charting skills when you need them?)

Panelbase: July 27th: 48/41/11; Sept 12: 47/46/7
Survation: Aug 29th: 48/42/11; Sept 10: 48/42/10
TNS-BMRB: Aug 7th 45/32/23; Sept 4: 39/38/23
Yougov: Sept 5th 45/47/8; Sept 11th: 50/45/6
Ipsos-Mori: Shit is not on same timeframe; like it's a month behind.
ICM: Aug 13th 47/37/14; Sept 12th 42/49/9;

I hope someone appreciates that - it took forever. What to gleen from this? Probably nothing, but "yes" is gaining steam. Things are changing so rapidly, that perhaps the blog I posted above is better than polls.

 

[natedagg]

Next day of scottish referendum blog: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...?commentpage=1#block-541a018de4b0afd2239954e9

I am really impressed with the quality of that blog, and the story on both sides is really interesting. The best part of the story, and what makes me admire Scotland so much, is that they are expecting a >95% voter turnout. That's just awesome, and I hope that one day our citizenry will aspire to get informed and vote about ANYTHING at a level that high.

 

[Maximus]

Cut to the chase...how do we make jet-money off of this?

 

[natedagg]

^all done tomorrow by the time you wake up. If referendum succeeds, market might lock limit down and gold skyrocket. You don't have time to open and fund a forex or futures account, so you are stuck. Markets have priced in a "no" victory, which is likely by such grand sources as the internets, so then the focus likely shifts to the baba ipo on Friday.

 

[Adam]

Well i woke up this morning looking forward to a day of history in the making. I still think it ends up a NO but only probably by 30,000 (which is the population of my town) and sparks a huge change in the uk structure that is geared more towards a republic

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'm hoping for a yes. Despite being half Scottish myself, the idea of a bunch of socialists finding out that they have to take the money from their own pockets is just too amusing to resist.

 

[Soar]

This will be very interesting.