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The 2013 Cleveland Indians

Discussion in '(MLB) Cleveland Indians' started by sgm405, Dec 29, 2012.

  1. sgm405

    sgm405 NBA Starter

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    We can adjust this discussion if the Indians make any further moves, but I think the major pieces of this team are in place for 2013. Without further ado, let's look at Bill James' 2013 projections, and how the Indians may stack up if they come true.

    Projected Lineup

    L-2B-Jason Kipnis - .274/.351/.429; 18 HR, 28 SB
    S-SS-Asdrubal Cabrera - .279/.342/.416; 16 HR, 12 SB
    S-RF-Nick Swisher - .256/.362/.458, 25 HR, 2 SB
    S-C-Carlos Santana - .261/.383/.476; 25 HR, 4 SB
    R-1B-Mark Reynolds - .231/.336/.463; 32 HR, 5 SB
    L-CF-Michael Brantley - .279/.344/.379; 7 HR, 19 SB
    L-3B-Lonnie Chisenhall - .262/.310/.433, 18 HR, 3 SB
    R-Drew Stubbs - .246/.319/.386; 16 HR, 33 SB
    R-Mike Aviles - .267/.300/.409; 13 HR, 13 SB

    Team Average:

    2013 Projected: .262/.339/.427; 170 HR, 119 SB
    2012 Indians: .251/.324/.381; 136 HR, 110 SB

    Notes:

    Take a look at how the 2013 (Projected) Indians would have fared in the 2012 MLB season:

    170 HRs would have put the Indians 12th in Baseball last year (They were 25th)
    .262 BA would have put the Indians 9th in Baseball last year (They were 18th)
    119 SB would have put the Indians 10th in Baseball last year (They were 12th)
    .339 OBP would have put the Indians 1st in Baseball last year (They were 11th)
    .427 SLG would have put the Indians 7th in Baseball last year (They were 25th)

    Despite it's flaws, it's clear the offense has not only been balanced, but also upgraded.

    Projected Rotation

    Justin Masterson - 10-12, 4.01 ERA, 204 IP
    Ubaldo Jimenez - 9-10, 3.97 ERA, 170 IP
    Brett Myers - No starting projections available

    And Two of:

    Trevor Bauer - 4-4, 4.14 ERA, 70 IP (CAIRO projection; Bill James didn't project him yet)
    Carlos Carrasco - 7-7, 4.61 ERA, 125 IP (CAIRO projection; Bill James didn't project him yet)
    Zack McAllister - 8-11, 4.50 ERA, 170 IP
    Scott Kazmir

    Notes:

    James is really predicting a bounce-back year for Ubaldo. I also see Bauer pitching much more than 70 IP. With Carrasco likely having an innings limit, Bauer's youth, and the likelihood of injuries occurring throughout the season, the importance of the Indians adding a SP like Marcum or Saunders is evident.

    Projected Bullpen

    Chris Perez - 41 saves, 2.79 ERA
    Vinnie Pestano - 25 saves, 2.72 ERA
    Joe Smith - 68 IP, 2.91 ERA
    Bryan Shaw - 62.0 IP, 4.06 ERA
    Matt Albers - 62.0 IP, 4.21 ERA
    Nick Hagadone - 30 IP, 4.77 ERA (CAIRO projection; Bill James didn't project him yet)
    Cody Allen - 55 IP, 3.42 ERA (CAIRO projection; Bill James didn't project him yet)
    Scott Barnes - No Projections Available

    Notes:

    Bullpens are obviously hard to project. For instance, barring injury, there is no way Hagadone only pitches 30 innings this year. Still, it seems likely that the bullpen will once again be a strength for this ballclub.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 12, 2013
  2. AZ_

    AZ_ Hall-of-Famer

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    Forgot Joe Smith in the pen.
     
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  3. sgm405

    sgm405 NBA Starter

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    Just for fun, here's some James projections for some other players the Indians could/have shown interest in:

    Shaun Marcum - 12-10, 3.63 ERA, 196 IP
    Joe Saunders - 9-12, 4.10 ERA, 189 IP
    Kyle Lohse - 13-10, 3.63 ERA, 208 IP
    Carlos Lee - .267/.327/.418; 17 HR
    Travis Hafner - .258/.363/.446; 14 HR
    Delmon Young - .279/.315/.435; 17 HR
    Luke Scott - .243/.321/.458; 12 HR
     
  4. sgm405

    sgm405 NBA Starter

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    Good call...fixed.
     
  5. Gunther

    Gunther ...back on the weed...

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    If Ubaldo has an ERA under 4, I would think he would throw more than 170 innings if healthy. But regardless of that point, if Ubaldo and Masterson perform to these predicted levels this season, we are not in bad shape. I'm not saying we'd be a playoff lock or anything, but it would not be out of the realm of possibility to say they might sniff that general vicinity. Ubaldo and Masterson are huge, huge pieces for us this season.

    It is a big season for both pitchers from a payday standpoint as well, as Ubaldo can opt out of his contract and become a FA after 2013, and Masterson will be entering his 3rd year of arbitration in 2014. Hopefully these incentives combined with Francona's impact on the team make for a very good season for both pitchers.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2012
  6. Stark

    Stark Keeping the Faith

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    They still need a pitcher and a veteran hitter.

    I'm not too sure on who to pick-up to pitch, but they need to bring Hafner back or get somebody like Luke Scott or El Caballo in here.
     
  7. shoes22

    shoes22 All-Star

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    If we can get Hafner on a cheap contract, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back. It makes our lineup even more formidable...I'd much rather see him DH than any of our other internal options, and we can still use the spot to give guys rest because I doubt Hafner would play every day anyway.
     
  8. sjhughes

    sjhughes Towel Waver

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    I am curious to see how the bring in another starting pitcher. Whether it is through free agency or a trade I can honestly say I am excited because I feel like our line up is coming together.
     
  9. AMC

    AMC Mmhmm.

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    I feel like these projections were drawn out of a hat.
     
  10. Real Deal

    Real Deal NBA Starter

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    That lineup looks so much better than what we're accustomed to seeing. Pretty stoked about Indians baseball.
     
  11. Huber.

    Huber. Adrninistrator

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    With Stubbs and Reynolds we will probably lead the majors in K's. It would be nice to get a DH that has a high OBP to compensate. Also, I doubt Masteron and Ubaldo have those numbers so it's important they sign another pitcher.
     
  12. billmac91

    billmac91 Sixth Man

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    I'm actually pretty optimistic about the season, and I can't remember the last time I felt that way truthfully. Maybe going into 2007? I've always hated when a team has a flash in the pan, and the fans assume it's their birthright to get back in the playoffs the next several years.

    I love the addition of Bauer and believe he could become our ace early on. If Masterson can get some control and Ubaldo rebounds at all, we're looking much better in the pitching department. I'm still holding out hope we can unload Perez for an additional bat or maybe more arms, but assuming he remains our closer, our bullpen doesn't look too shabby.

    I think it's imperative we pick up at least one more bat. Any time your projected line-up has the DH hitting 9th, something is incredibly wrong. I'm on-board if they can sign Hafner to a small deal, but would rather get a more versatile and durable player. With that being said, about to really contradict myself, but a guy like Lance Berkman could really boost this club. Good veteran leadership, solid bat, and ability to play DH as a way to extend his career would be awesome. I don't think it is likely, but inserting him 5th in the line-up, and letting Stubbs bat 9th where he may have more success in the line-up as a base-runner and his strike-outs won't be as negative would be helpful.

    I'm also curious to see what kind of contract Delmon Young lands this year. The guy is a headcase, but has some value as a DH. You'd think with his legal/mental issues, a team will be able to get him at a bargain.

    Lastly, it really feels like we have some guys who are due to have bounce-back years. If Smooth sucks again in 2013, we might as well write him off. I like what Lonnie Chisenhall showed when healthy in 2012 and think he has more value in the line-up than a #7 hitter potentially. I hate the contact issues Reynolds has, but at least he provides some pop at the first base position which we haven't had in years. Swisher provides a steady presence, although I have a feeling the production will dip pretty heavily coming out of Yankee stadium and without the protection.

    L-CF-Michael Brantley - .279/.344/.379; 7 HR, 19 SB
    L-2B-Jason Kipnis - .274/.351/.429; 18 HR, 28 SB
    S-SS-Asdrubal Cabrera - .279/.342/.416; 16 HR, 12 SB
    S-RF-Nick Swisher - .256/.362/.458, 25 HR, 2 SB
    S-C-Carlos Santana - .261/.383/.476; 25 HR, 4 SB
    R-1B-Mark Reynolds - .231/.336/.463; 32 HR, 5 SB
    L-3B-Lonnie Chisenhall - .262/.310/.433, 18 HR, 3 SB
    R-Drew Stubbs - .246/.319/.386; 16 HR, 33 SB
    R-Mike Aviles - .267/.300/.409; 13 HR, 13 SB
     
  13. JMcCurry08

    JMcCurry08 NBA Starter

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    ill take Lohse and Young
     
  14. AZ_

    AZ_ Hall-of-Famer

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    Delmon can leave his overweight, anti-Semetic ass right where he is.
     
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  15. The Oi

    The Oi Or Also Schtick

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  16. sgm405

    sgm405 NBA Starter

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    They are from Bill James.
     
  17. sgm405

    sgm405 NBA Starter

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    I'd love Kyle Lohse or Shaun Marcum and either Travis Hafner or Carlos Lee to a small contract
     
  18. billmac91

    billmac91 Sixth Man

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    That was a nasty story but I'm fairly certain the guy isn't a racist. Black racist players typically don't make it in baseball very long for pretty obvious reasons....
     
  19. AZ_

    AZ_ Hall-of-Famer

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    Maybe why he's still unemployed
     
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  20. RealKingofCleve

    RealKingofCleve Banned

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    Young and Hafner will give you very similar numbers, except one of them is guaranteed to make numerous trips to the DL.
     

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